[Davidi] Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays have reached agreement on a $500-million, 14-yr extension

[BTS]

Vlad is currently the 30th best player in baseball by ZiPS/Steamer projections. 

[Nexii]

Crazy to sign him now and not in 2026

With how the US economy is going, he would have been 100-150M cheaper. All these long term deals assumed high growth/inflation, I wouldn't bet on it now

[Pinkfloid]

The AAV isn't that bad, let's hope he can now clear his head and go on a tear.

Think the team really needs to sign Bo now too, but hopefully he is more reasonable in his demands than Vladdy.

[Pendleton]

[Terminator]

7 hours ago, Ray said:

Strictly by baseball standards, the total guarantee is a tad high for a player who's had two elite years so far in his career and has shown flashes otherwise. That being said the amount of years stretches it to a pretty reasonable $35.7M AAV and shouldn't stop us from building around him financially

Yeah Zips was saying he’d offer 9 for 450 but I like the extra years stretching it out. Will save tens of millions in tax each year. 

[Jimcanuck]

An expensive DH

[xposbrad]

7 hours ago, HomeRunHomer said:

How soon will they regret this?

Well, every year or two there is a new standard in the worst contract, this is now it. 

[BB17]

48 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Crazy to sign him now and not in 2026

With how the US economy is going, he would have been 100-150M cheaper. All these long term deals assumed high growth/inflation, I wouldn't bet on it now

When you are signing deals to 10+ years there’s always likely to be a recession somewhere in that time frame anyway. A pending strike when the next CBA expires is probably worse risk as you would lose one of the prime years.

Also I don’t think baseball contracts really went down after the 2008 housing crisis or the 2000 dot com bubble.

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, glory said:

Pros: he’s young enough to accumulate counting stats that might make him a Hall of Famer if he stays healthy, so a forever Blue Jay making it someday would be pretty cool.

Cons: everything else. Horrible contract that will age really badly unless Vlad has a David Ortiz career arc (he won’t).

Cons: everything else...

I'm dead. Near spit my water all over the chick on the treadmill next to me 

[John_Havok]

All joking aside....

This is probably the best of all the worst case scenarios. So...there's that?

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, Delete_My_Account_Thanks said:

Looking forward to everyone complaining about Vlad right now doing a 180 when he's raking in May.

Look, im sure he’ll turn it around this year and put up good numbers. Im sure he’ll be good for the next couple seasons.

However, im not confident that the last 10-8 years of the deal won’t be an absolute albatross that hinders the team spending throughout the next competitive window.

There was no need to do this, they could have waited until the offseason to see his actual value and pivot if needed.

Now we’re stuck with him, we bid against ourselves, and now we are committed to not selling at the deadline.

This is a terrible terrible contract and easily the worst in baseball right now.

[BTS]

9 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

All joking aside....

This is probably the best of all the worst case scenarios. So...there's that?

I'm having a hard time seeing a scenario that's worse. I guess he could have signed for an even bigger overpayment? 

[John_Havok]

1 minute ago, BTS said:

I'm having a hard time seeing a scenario that's worse. I guess he could have signed for an even bigger overpayment? 

He could have walked for a comp pick. That's probably worse

As much as the length and overall value of the contract isn't ideal, there is a value in having a cornerstone in place who could potentially end up in the HoF of he pulls his head out of his ass. 

All those depth pieces that sign elsewhere on shorter deals could be looking the Jays way in the future.

What remains to be seen is if this impacts the higher tiers of players choosing TO as a destination now that there's some certainty in the face of the franchise

[mphenhef]

What a masterclass in how not to negotiate a long term extension this was from Atkins/Shapiro.  

 

The last half of this one is going to be painful and I hope I am wrong but I'm not sure Vlad has the profile to provide excess value in the early years due to his position and defensive/baserunning shortcomings.

[mphenhef]

14 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Look, im sure he’ll turn it around this year and put up good numbers. Im sure he’ll be good for the next couple seasons.

However, im not confident that the last 10-8 years of the deal won’t be an absolute albatross that hinders the team spending throughout the next competitive window.

There was no need to do this, they could have waited until the offseason to see his actual value and pivot if needed.

Now we’re stuck with him, we bid against ourselves, and now we are committed to not selling at the deadline.

This is a terrible terrible contract and easily the worst in baseball right now.

It's not the Rendon contract

[Stangstag]

4 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

What a masterclass in how not to negotiate a long term extension this was from Atkins/Shapiro.  

 

The last half of this one is going to be painful and I hope I am wrong but I'm not sure Vlad has the profile to provide excess value in the early years due to his position and defensive/baserunning shortcomings.

This has to be ownership butting in. Arte Moreno style

[John_Havok]

6 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

What a masterclass in how not to negotiate a long term extension this was from Atkins/Shapiro.  

 

The last half of this one is going to be painful and I hope I am wrong but I'm not sure Vlad has the profile to provide excess value in the early years due to his position and defensive/baserunning shortcomings.

100% ownership driven. Not a chance Atkins was the driver of this deal

[Laika]

Even if he finally does turn into Miguel Cabrera (has serious work to do) from ages 27 on, there will be 7 dead years on the end of this deal. 

Ages 20 to 25 since 1970: Soto is #7 with 32.6 fWAR, Vladito is #75 with 16.9 fWAR. Four tenths of a win above Adam Dunn. 1.4 wins behind John Olerud. 

Good for Vlad for getting the best of Ed Rogers but man oh man. 

I guess the best case scenario here is something like Bryce Harper with PHI for the first half of the contract? 

[mphenhef]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

He’s projected for 4 WAR this year. 

So depending on where you place the value of 1 WAR, he is either already costing more than his value or just barely providing excess value.  Not what you want in a mega contract that will most definitely age poorly.

[Big_Walleye]

People would be a lot more comfortable with this deal had he been raking this year.  Unfortunately he's been raking the infield with ground balls instead.

Hopefully this new stability is his life will take some pressure off and allow him to be a better version of himself. 

Theres no doubt about his hit tool when he's right, and he should still be improving at this age.  

Given the way baseball salaries are skyrocketing, there's a chance this deal looks like a bargain in 7 years or so.

[Stangstag]

3 minutes ago, Big_Walleye said:

People would be a lot more comfortable with this deal had he been raking this year.  Unfortunately he's been raking the infield with ground balls instead.

Hopefully this new stability is his life will take some pressure off and allow him to be a better version of himself. 

Theres no doubt about his hit tool when he's right, and he should still be improving at this age.  

Given the way baseball salaries are skyrocketing, there's a chance this deal looks like a bargain in 7 years or so.

Not really. I don't think 10 games is changing any opinions.

[Big_Walleye]

1 minute ago, Stangstag said:

Not really. I don't think 10 games is changing any opinions.

Maybe not yours or mine but some people see the last 3 games as the end of the world.

[Omar]

Actually, if you consider his current skill set he may perform the same ten years down the road.  

There is a double edged sword in the above statement, I know, but if you look at what he brings to the table right now couldn't a 36 year old Vlad do the same?  

[BTS]

1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

He could have walked for a comp pick. That's probably worse

As much as the length and overall value of the contract isn't ideal, there is a value in having a cornerstone in place who could potentially end up in the HoF of he pulls his head out of his ass. 

All those depth pieces that sign elsewhere on shorter deals could be looking the Jays way in the future.

What remains to be seen is if this impacts the higher tiers of players choosing TO as a destination now that there's some certainty in the face of the franchise

I would have taken the comp pick. It would be a small net positive return. As things stand, the contract has less than 0 value. 

[Laika]

Remember when Rafael Devers was broken? His famously poor start? 

134 wRC+ now lol 

[Orgfiller]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

Remember when Rafael Devers was broken? His famously poor start? 

134 wRC+ now lol 

After his 4 double performance yesterday, he now has a higher ISO than all but 3 Blue Jays lol. Kill me.

[Laika]

1 minute ago, Orgfiller said:

After his 4 double performance yesterday, he now has a higher ISO than all but 3 Blue Jays lol. Kill me.

There was a legit 5 day window where Toronto maybe could have swapped Vlad for Devers straight up 

Woulda been nice

[BTS]

I knew I should have sent Spanky a Devers offer sooner 

[PitaBaby]

Ok Vladdy, time to start raking.

[Brownie19]

I think this is really positive for the Blue Jays and their franchise.  I 100% think ownership stepped in and forced this to happen at a price well above what the FO believed was fair, but I'm glad they did.  We need this stability.

I really don't like Vlad at all, but the bat is legit and he certainly has the ability to be a HOF hitter.  I'll take Vlad, Kirk, Gimenez locked up, entering their prime years all day long.  We should get the 4-5 best years of those players.  Add in Santander as the vet bat and it's a solid little core.  That said, we need a 110-120 wRC+ Gimenez.  The ceiling of this core drops quite a bit if he's a 90 wRC+ bat.

We 100% need to develop better to fill in around these guys to field a winner.  I hope we can.