Nexii

Yea it's hard to say. Wind and spin have such an effect. I was going more by the spray chart, these look further than the actual data charts

It was hit 105 EV and 49 degrees. By Statcast thats usually about 350-365 feet. Usually a flyout but where that was right down the line I think it would have gone out.

Definitely would have been a home run That tops the ball in the wall for the Jays last WS

Well I think it goes kind of beyond Schneider. Paying Vlad 100M above market value basically was telling him he was special for some reason I still don't understand. No other team was going to give him 500M so it was strange. It really sounds like something an agent might have said to him at some point. Of course it is true of free agency, players are paid based on past performance, MLB is structured that way. But a player should kinda know never to use that as an excuse for lower than expected performance.

Yea I did some rough math. It was 43 games in both 2024 and 2025 which is the exact expected, if every game was 50/50. 32 is minimum possible, 53 max. Yea very small sample size.

Well I think usually it's not even about the risk/return money wise. The psychology of it is probably even stranger than we think. I think to a lot of E-sports players who threw games for almost nothing and were banned for life. Or even Clase, the small kickbacks he got wouldn't have even covered the future salary loss. I think what more often happens is it's done for the thrill of getting away with it. Or it's done as a sort of 'favor' to friends/family. That is, it's more of an emotional thing when done than rational. And so giving harsher punishments has some deterrant but less than we might think. But I also think as MLB gets more in bed with gambling sites, the potential for really big scandals occurring is increasing. We think of this from a player perspective, but the people who run gambling sites get tempted too. It might not even take a whole company being in on it. Again, it's not rational but this is how it goes. Would be an interesting FanGraphs article. Were there more post-season games than pure odds would dictate? Doesn't seem like it would be hard to calculate out.

Feeling good, our playoff odds have really recovered lately

Yea lol when the projection is all 3 wildcards will come out of the AL East. It would have happened in 2025 if Baltimore didn't underperform so badly

The way I look at it, teams like the Jays and Phillies made the other teams overpay. That's not always such a bad thing.

I'm trying to remember where the Jays ranked in projected WAR during the last offseason. We certainly weren't 3rd in the league. It's kind of insane how far ahead the Dodgers are over everyone though... 7 wins over the Yankees is mindblowing

Given what Bo got, he's probably going to get like 5/200. Teams are getting pretty spendy now

Revenue sharing already looks pretty significant in MLB? Something like 200M per team, is that really true? It seems the issue is teams not spending their revenue sharing. They should lose every dollar that they don't spend on salaries, IMO. If they did I'm not sure you'd really even need a luxury tax.

Yea I'm not worried about not getting a bat. I really hope we can get one more decent RP though. Our pen still only projects to be average-ish

Really seems like it. I wonder if anyone can do a breakdown but it feels like hardly anyone has been signed for their age 36+ seasons.

They're a few years older though. Age matters a lot for the final contract