[Davidi] Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays have reached agreement on a $500-million, 14-yr extension

[Governator]

Worst case scenario is your Rogers bill increases next year by 5%.

Best case scenario is this makes signing other players easier in the future as there's no way Rogers would put a hard stop on spending after this decision. I also believe we can't just say we could easily sign player A or B next year by letting Vlad walk.  How did that work out for the last couple signings we whiffed on?  Toronto isn't an easy place to attract players and everyone seems to forget that. 

[Jays24]

1 minute ago, Governator said:

Worst case scenario is your Rogers bill increases next year by 5%.

Best case scenario is this makes signing other players easier in the future as there's no way Rogers would put a hard stop on spending after this decision. I also believe we can't just say we could easily sign player A or B next year by letting Vlad walk.  How did that work out for the last couple signings we whiffed on?  Toronto isn't an easy place to attract players and everyone seems to forget that. 

Alonso was on record stating that he didn't choose Toronto because they didn't have a clear long term direction even with us having a higher offer. 

I'm sure this would apply for many others so I wish we could have done this at the start of free agency to potentially add better players. 

[Brownie19]

2 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

This franchise has never had to suffer that long with a bad contract.  You should think back to 2017 when we ate the backend of the Tulo/Martin deals... now times that by 7 lol. 

This contract will impact the working budget for those Jays teams and we will all still here crying about having 35M less to spend on more impactful players.  Heck, half of this board wanted to DFA Vladdy a year ago when he was making 20M lol.

Man - you worry about a lot of things on here.  I think the last thing you need to get too worried about is what will happen with Vlad and the Jays in 2033-2039.

[thatoneguy]

f***ing awful contract, my god.

[BB17]

I guess we will see if this does make Toronto appear more favourably for FA. I'm not sure it changes all that much honestly, the same caveats appear for why it isn't a place a lot of FA want to go to. (Different country, high taxes, less favourable weather) and even with Vladdy the same questions about future outlook remain given the weak farm system.

[Terminator]

As we all know I like to do what we call a little trolling from time to time....and one added benefit to this Vlad signing is that it has provided plenty of ammo to use against the worst people on the internet (aka New Yorkers)

So fire up your burner accounts and start wrecking Mets and Yankee fans folks. Doesn't even matter that the Mets just swept us they are shook by this Vlad signing. 

[ValiantJaysFan]

Not only is this a bad contract on it's face for the dollar amount and the length...it has a full no trade clause. Good Lord, Rogers got bent over a barrel.

[BTS]

The stark difference in tone between the exuberant article in the news section of this site and the posts in this thread are hilarious. I love this forum. 

[Spanky99]

I can't believe the Jays caved, dude makes more money than Ohtani, lol. Well, at least there's some inclination of direction at least.

[Jimcanuck]

I'm really surprised the Jays did this a week after Vladdy bobblehead day drew an abysmal crowd.

The last several years of this deal, the Jays will pay Vladdy to stay home and be Daddy and Grandpappy Vladdy.

 

[G-Snarls]

2 hours ago, Orgfiller said:

There's quite a bit of money coming off the books at the end of 2025 and then again in 2026. If Gimenez slides over to SS (assuming Bo is as good as gone) and we can develop a starting pitcher (or three) it would mitigate the losses and give us some breathing room to use the payroll efficiently to round out the rest of the roster.

Yeah 

They can't keep up paying 100M+ for a starting rotation 

[Spanky99]

13 hours ago, Jays24 said:

This contract is deserving of a player who has consistently performed at his 2021/2024 levels.  Jays are pissing away 250/7 at the backend assuming he actually plays up to 250/7 in the front-end. 

For the record, I would have overpaid Alonso on a 5 year deal and traded Vlad for some win now players than agreeing to this deal.  

FTR, that was never happening man.

[Terminator]

There are three keys to making this contract a win for the Jays:

• Key #1: unlock more launch angle out of Vlad which can get him to a .300 BA with 45 homers statline and 6+ WAR seasons. Probably a pipe dream but it's always going to be a goal so long as his batted ball data is so strong.
• Key #2: Keep him healthy and hitting until his mid 30s. Essentially, extend the "prime years" for as long as possible. Some dudes can just flat out hit forever and hopefully he's one of them. Even if he never gets back to 6 WAR, if we can get him to rack up 4ish WAR seasons for the next 8 years that's going to help make this deal better.
• Key #3: Soften the inevitable downfall of the latter years by getting serviceable DH years out of him in his late 30s. He ain't going to be worth 35M a year at that point but there's a big difference between a DH who is able to hit #5 or 6 in a decent lineup and one who is a total waste of a roster spot.

If they can do 2 of these 3 then the contract should turn out fine. 2 of these 3 might get him into the Hall of Fame too and it would be pretty damn cool to have a one-franchise Hall of Famer.

[Spanky99]

6 hours ago, Pinkfloid said:

The AAV isn't that bad, let's hope he can now clear his head and go on a tear.

Think the team really needs to sign Bo now too, but hopefully he is more reasonable in his demands than Vladdy.

Agreed, I'm surprised at the amount of people that almost seemingly hope it fails, I don't get that? Here's to hoping this f***er rakes! ⚾🔥

[Spanky99]

5 hours ago, Omar said:

Actually, if you consider his current skill set he may perform the same ten years down the road.  

There is a double edged sword in the above statement, I know, but if you look at what he brings to the table right now couldn't a 36 year old Vlad do the same?  

Can't see why not?

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, BTS said:

This would be looked at very differently if the team was top-tier, or looked poised to become top tier in the next couple years. But the reality is that there isn't a team in the league that's a more obvious candidate for a rebuild, and it looks very unlikely that the team makes any noise in the first 5 years of Vlad's deal. So what's the point? 

I wish we were in a better position right now - I do.  But what is wrong with having 3 players extended who are 25 or 26 and who project to be 4-6 WAR players?  Isn't that the type of position most teams want to be in?

We also have a productive hitter in Tony Taters, plus some ML ready prospects in Roden, Wagner, Barger, Orelvis, etc. whom you hope can add to that core.  Obviously a lot hinges on Gimenez hitting well and some of the young players becoming regulars, but I don't think this some dire situation that requires a major blowup.

Do we need to develop better?  and do we need success out of Bloss/Ricky/Yesavage/Nimmala?  You're damn right we do - but that could happen.  And yes we'll probably still need to be aggressive in the FA market, but if you step back, the franchise really isn't in that bad of a place.  

I'm still hopeful, but realistically, we probably fall short of the playoffs this year.  We could now be major sellers at the deadline.  Moving Bo, Gausman, Bassitt, Green, Scherzer, Springer?, Varsho (maybe?), etc. could really change the trajectory of the future.

We could enter 2026 with the following positions filled:

C - Kirk

1st - Vlad

2nd - Wagner

SS - Gimenez

LF/RF - Roden/Taters

CF - Varsho (if he isn't dealt - could be an extension candidate)

Rotation - Berrios, Francis

Pen - Hoffman, Garcia, Little, Sandlin, Yariel

Then you should have Barger, Orelvis, Clement, Kasevich, McAdoo, etc. knocking on the door offensively, with Bloss, Ricky, Yesavage, Rojas, Macko, etc. ready to contribute on the pitching side.

Plus all the players you picked up at the trade deadline this year.

Plus a ton of money available to sign free agents.

 

I just don't think it's all doom and gloom.  I could see us contending again as soon as 2026, but if not, soon after.  Certainly while we're still in the prime of Vlad/Gimenez/Kirk.  A lot of this will depend on how good that Roden, Wagner, Barger, Orelvis, Nimmala, Bloss, Ricky, Yesavage become...we REALLY need several of them to become quality major league starters.  Just my take.  As always - I'm excited to see it playout.  

 

 

[BB17]

23 minutes ago, Terminator said:

There are three keys to making this contract a win for the Jays:

• Key #1: unlock more launch angle out of Vlad which can get him to a .300 BA with 45 homers statline and 6+ WAR seasons. Probably a pipe dream but it's always going to be a goal so long as his batted ball data is so strong.
• Key #2: Keep him healthy and hitting until his mid 30s. Essentially, extend the "prime years" for as long as possible. Some dudes can just flat out hit forever and hopefully he's one of them. Even if he never gets back to 6 WAR, if we can get him to rack up 4ish WAR seasons for the next 8 years that's going to help make this deal better.
• Key #3: Soften the inevitable downfall of the latter years by getting serviceable DH years out of him in his late 30s. He ain't going to be worth 35M a year at that point but there's a big difference between a DH who is able to hit #5 or 6 in a decent lineup and one who is a total waste of a roster spot.

If they can do 2 of these 3 then the contract should turn out fine. 2 of these 3 might get him into the Hall of Fame too and it would be pretty damn cool to have a one-franchise Hall of Famer.

I'm not sure he's even going to be playable after 35. Look at guys like Donaldson and Bautista who fell off a cliff at 36, and those guys peaks were way better than Vladdy's. Vladdy is really good because he has such god given abilities/athleticism (swing wise). Once he loses the bat speed it will be ugly and then you have to think how hard pitchers will be throwing 8-10 years from now. The aging decline will likely start even sooner by then given how fast pitchers throw etc.. 

I really hope I'm wrong and Vladdy rakes but every way I look at it this contract has way so much more downside than upside.

[Spanky99]

4 hours ago, BTS said:

I knew I should have sent Spanky a Devers offer sooner 

😅

[Nexii]

14 minutes ago, Spanky99 said:

Agreed, I'm surprised at the amount of people that almost seemingly hope it fails, I don't get that? Here's to hoping this f***er rakes! ⚾🔥

Moneyball syndrome. Too many people focused on efficiency over winning.

It's an overpay but it shows Rogers will spend

[Masterbather]

What's done is done.

The anchor has been tied to us, we can only hope that he produces enough to not make this an absolute albatross. 

If he hits well enough this will help sign free agents, if he doesn't this is the kind of contract that'll keep free agents away from us because they know it'll drag us down. Everything depends on this guy. THIS f***ing guy holds the key to our franchise. God help us all.

 

[JaysAllMighty]

Well it's a done deal, tears won't fix anything.

I just want him to smash a bunch of hits now and smart running.

 

GO VLAD GO!

 

CHEERS 👍

 

[Terminator]

43 minutes ago, BB17 said:

I'm not sure he's even going to be playable after 35. Look at guys like Donaldson and Bautista who fell off a cliff at 36, and those guys peaks were way better than Vladdy's. Vladdy is really good because he has such god given abilities/athleticism (swing wise). Once he loses the bat speed it will be ugly and then you have to think how hard pitchers will be throwing 8-10 years from now. The aging decline will likely start even sooner by then given how fast pitchers throw etc.. 

I really hope I'm wrong and Vladdy rakes but every way I look at it this contract has way so much more downside than upside.

I'm not either but that's why it's a key! I think there is a big difference between an overpaid player who can still contribute versus an overpaid player who contributes nothing or even hurts you.

Using Vlad as an example, if he's DHing and chipping in with a wRC+ of 115, even if he can't field or run the bases, will put the team in a much better spot than if he is hitting wRC+ 90.

The 90 wRC+ version either requires another roster addition while you bury 38 year old Vlad on the bench or play him and have to overcome his negative WAR. The former you just plug into the DH spot and bat him 5th or 6th and can live with it.

[BallsDeep]

2 hours ago, BB17 said:

26 is the prime of a baseball player, this is basically the best Vladdy you are going to get from a physical skills pov. Now if he can be smarter/understand how pitchers are attacking him there is certainly more upside for the numbers to be better.

26 is prime??? Lol 

[Laika]

yeah basically 

well, 26-28 if you want to be a bit more liberal 

[max silver]

8 hours ago, Delete_My_Account_Thanks said:

He's our best hitter, the front office couldn't draft and develop anyone remotely close to replacing him, so this had to be done.

How is this $35.7 million a year the money you guys are worried about?  How about the other $240 million that Shatkins is basically wasting on the rest of the payroll?

 

 

I doubt anyone is remotely worried about the yearly salary. The 14 year term on a bad body 1B/DH is the concerning part. 

And please remind me how the rest of the Jays payroll is being "wasted" this season. 

[Governator]

There's honestly no point in worrying about the state of the contract 10 years from now.  He might waive a no trade clause and not even be a Jay in 5 years.  

[BB17]

53 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I'm not either but that's why it's a key! I think there is a big difference between an overpaid player who can still contribute versus an overpaid player who contributes nothing or even hurts you.

Using Vlad as an example, if he's DHing and chipping in with a wRC+ of 115, even if he can't field or run the bases, will put the team in a much better spot than if he is hitting wRC+ 90.

The 90 wRC+ version either requires another roster addition while you bury 38 year old Vlad on the bench or play him and have to overcome his negative WAR. The former you just plug into the DH spot and bat him 5th or 6th and can live with it.

If you are getting 2016-2021 Pujols with the Angels, he's basically not even worth a roster spot at that point. And then it'll be a tough conversation to cut a guy with 150M left on his deal and a Blue Jays record holder.

[Omar]

Perhaps the best thing to come out of the Vladdy extension is to see deluded Red Sox fans disappointed that yet another player is now out of reach.😜

 

[Terminator]

23 minutes ago, BB17 said:

If you are getting 2016-2021 Pujols with the Angels, he's basically not even worth a roster spot at that point. And then it'll be a tough conversation to cut a guy with 150M left on his deal and a Blue Jays record holder.

Yes exactly, if he avoids that version of Pujols it will go a long way in justifying his contract

[rydermike]

I was resigned to the fact that they would give it to him. But the no trade clause was something I didn't expect. No deferred money, got a no trade clause, and a half bill. Vladdy literally got everything.