Leo Morgenstern

Earlier this week, I wrote about some possible landing spots for Kevin Gausman. His teammate Shane Bieber is a whole different beast of a trade chip. Both pitchers can lead a rotation when they're at their best. Gausman, however, is as low-risk as they come. Whichever team trades for him (and it does seem like he will be traded, despite his protestations), they know they're getting at least 10 solid starts down the stretch. Bieber is not such a safe bet. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner has not pitched a full season since 2022. He has made seven starts this season since returning from an elbow injury. In those starts, he has a 5.74 ERA and a 7.55 xERA in 31.1 innings. Two of his last three starts were absolute gems against a couple of the top teams in the American League, the White Sox and the Rays. Unfortunately, his most recent start, which was his final game before the deadline, was a disaster. Something was clearly wrong, as he gave up four runs on six walks and failed to escape the first inning. So, teams in the market for Bieber will be those that are looking for upside but can afford to take on some risk. In other words, we're looking for contenders that can (a) make room for Bieber in their rotation if he's pitching well and (b) have a backup plan if he isn't. Who might that be? Why the Yankees Would Want To Trade for Shane Bieber I know, I know. Nobody wants to see the Blue Jays trade with the Yankees. But the fit is there. The Yankees could use another starter, considering Max Fried, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Rodón have all missed time with injuries this year. AL Cy Young front-runner Cam Schlittler has been rock solid all season, but even he has his question marks; he is approaching unprecedented territory in terms of his workload. Will Warren and Ryan Weathers have stepped up in a big way for the Yankees, but either of them could move to the bullpen following a Bieber trade. If Bieber struggles or gets hurt, the Yankees have a great insurance policy. Why the Red Sox Would Want To Trade for Shane Bieber Yes, another AL East opponent. I'm sorry, but once again, the fit is too good to ignore. Garrett Crochet is hoping to return for the playoffs. If he does, Boston's top three of Crochet, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suárez would be downright scary. Either Payton Tolle or Jake Bennett would be more than qualified to be the No. 4. Yet, the Red Sox have to get to the playoffs for that to matter. Suárez is an All-Star, but he's also a perennial injury risk. Tolle and Bennett are rookies. Boston's No. 5 starter is Patrick Sandoval, who has only made four starts since his return from Tommy John surgery. It's understandable why they traded Connelly Early for Curtis Mead, but Early's presence on the roster will be missed. The Red Sox don't need a starting pitcher, but some depth could help them avoid a late-season collapse. Why the Rangers Would Want To Trade for Shane Bieber Like the Yankees and the Red Sox, the Rangers have plenty of starters, but most of them have their question marks. MacKenzie Gore is sturdy, but Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi are older veterans with lengthy injury histories. Kumar Rocker lacks experience. Jack Leiter should be the No. 5, but he's currently on the IL. Cal Quantrill (and possibly Cody Bradford and Jordan Montgomery) offers depth, but any contending team would prefer an option with more upside. Bieber can be that option. Shane Bieber Mock Trade Jays Centre's Matthew Creally came up with a mock trade last week that would send Shane Bieber to the Braves. I'll let him explain the logic behind that landing spot (you can read the article here!), but Atlanta is another team that could use (a) a pitcher with Bieber's upside and (b) survive if he suffers another injury. Matthew's formula determined that Bieber could net the Jays one mid-range prospect, but the return could be more exciting if Toronto packaged Bieber with another player. Here is the mock he ultimately came up with: Braves get Shane Bieber and Jesús Sánchez Blue Jays get Jorge Mateo and Owen Murphy (BA Braves No. 7) Any thoughts on these landing spots? Any other teams you think I should have considered? Leave a comment and let me know! View full article

It's getting harder and harder for me to deny that the Blue Jays are going to do some selling over the next six days. They're 49-58 on the season and 4-7 since the All-Star break. The PECOTA projection system has long been a believer in this Blue Jays team, but that belief is starting to wane; their postseason odds have fallen to 1-in-10. If the Blue Jays do sell, they'll probably only shop their rentals. And of their impending free agents, the most valuable trade chip is Kevin Gausman. Gausman is No. 10 on DiamondCentric's ranking of this year's top trade candidates. He's sixth among pitchers and second among rental starters, behind only Tarik Skubal. Gausman offers a rare combination of dominance and durability, and if the Blue Jays are willing to pay down some of his salary, the 35-year-old should be a fit for just about every contending team that needs a starting pitcher. With that said, here are a few teams that should definitely be giving the Blue Jays a call. Why the Phillies Would Want To Trade for Kevin Gausman The Phillies are in a precarious position. They're seven games above .500, but their run differential is -12. If they're serious about competing – and they should be, considering their expensive, aging core – they need to make at least one big swing at the trade deadline. Ideally, they would improve their offense, but the trade market has a lot more supply on the pitching side. That's not a problem for the Phillies. They have one of the best rotations in the majors, but that's only because of their top three starters: Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo. They don't have a fourth starter they can trust in the playoffs, and they don't have a fifth starter at all. I wrote about the Phillies' deadline needs for Just Baseball, and the staff there came up with this mock trade to bring Gausman to Philly. Phillies get Kevin Gausman Blue Jays get Ramon Marquez (BA Phillies No. 4) and Carson DeMartini (BA Phillies No. 15) Why the Dodgers Would Want To Trade for Kevin Gausman Like the Phillies, the Dodgers don't need another ace. They already have Yoshinobu Yamamoto leading their rotation, and they're hoping to have Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani back pitching before too long. In a best-case scenario for the Dodgers, 2026 All-Star Justin Wrobleski wouldn't even have a spot in their postseason rotation. That said, the Dodgers aren't a team that counts on the best-case scenario. They know how rarely that works out. That's why they're the back-to-back reigning World Series champions. Eric Lauer, a pitcher Toronto discarded, has been starting for L.A. over the past two months. Admittedly, he's been a lot better for the Dodgers than he was for the Blue Jays earlier this year, but still, the Dodgers don't want to wind up in a situation where they're counting on Lauer to make a start in a playoff game. They're almost certain to add a starter at the trade deadline. Considering all of the question marks in the rotation right now, they might jump at the chance to pick up one of the most reliable starting pitchers in the game. Our own Matthew Creally recently proposed a mock trade that would send Gausman to the Dodgers. Here's what that looked like: Dodgers get Kevin Gausman Blue Jays get Charles Davalan (BA Dodgers No. 7) and Dylan Tate Why the Cubs Would Want To Trade for Kevin Gausman Paul Niemiec of North Side Baseball recently ranked Chicago's trade deadline priorities, and a top-of-the-rotation starter was No. 1 with a bullet. To be honest, the Cubs should probably aim even higher than Gausman, given the state of their rotation. Skubal could help the North Siders more than maybe any other team. However, I'm not convinced Jed Hoyer will shell out for the two-time Cy Young winner. Even if he were willing to, there's no guarantee the Cubs would win that bidding war. Gausman would be a nice consolation prize for a team that should be more desperate for starting pitching than any other contender. Our friends at Just Baseball also came up with a Gausman mock trade between the Blue Jays and Cubs. Take a look: Cubs get Kevin Gausman Blue Jays get Brooks Caple (BA Cubs No. 19) and Juan Cabada (BA Cubs No. 14) Why the Diamondbacks Would Want To Trade for Kevin Gausman In the last section, I said the Cubs should be more desperate for starting pitching than any other contender. The reason I said that is because I think the Cubs could be serious World Series contenders with a better top of the rotation. However, I don't think the Cubs are the contender with the worst rotation. That title belongs to the Diamondbacks. The D-backs are 55-52, tied for the second Wild Card spot, and I'm not sure they have a single starter I'd feel great about giving the ball to in a postseason game. Eduardo Rodriguez was their All-Star, but his sub-3.00 ERA is completely unsustainable. Only four qualified pitchers have a higher xERA, and one of them is his teammate Merrill Kelly. Zac Gallen and Michael Soroka could return from the IL down the stretch, but Gallen has looked even worse than he did last year, and Soroka hasn't thrown more than 100 innings in a season since 2019. If the Diamondbacks can make the playoffs, having Gausman available to start in the Wild Card series would significantly increase their chances of advancing. Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs mocked Gausman to the Diamondbacks earlier today. Here is his trade proposal: Diamondbacks get Kevin Gausman Blue Jays get Druw Jones (BA Diamondbacks No. 17) and Mitch Bratt (BA Diamondbacks No. 12) Any thoughts on these mock trade proposals? Any other teams you think I should have considered? Leave a comment and let me know! View full article

Well, we no longer have to wonder what the roster will look like "when Addison Barger returns." This afternoon, the Blue Jays revealed that Barger needs surgery on his throwing elbow. It's not yet clear if he'll need Tommy John or the less invasive internal brace procedure, but either way, Barger won't play again in 2026. At this point, I can't imagine many Blue Jays were counting on much from Barger this season anyway. Expectations were high for the young slugger entering the year, following his breakout campaign in 2025. He finished his first full season with 21 home runs, a 107 wRC+, and 2.2 FanGraphs WAR – and it seemed like he was just scratching the surface of his potential. Unfortunately, Barger never got the chance to show what he could do in full-season number two. He first hit the injured list barely a week into the season. Running to first base, he landed on the bag awkwardly and exited with what was initially labelled "bilateral ankle discomfort." A couple of days later, the Blue Jays formally placed him on the 10-day IL with a left ankle sprain. Barger was back after a month, but his triumphant return was short-lived. In his first game back, he made a spectacular throw – 101.2 mph! – to complete a double play at the plate... unknowingly ending his season in the process. John Schneider told reporters today (including MLB.com's Keegan Matheson) that Barger had been playing through some degree of elbow discomfort for “a couple of years." Still, it's hard not to think that throw was the straw that broke the camel's back. Over the past couple of months, we've gotten the occasional update about Barger stopping or starting good old "baseball activities," but it never seemed like he was making much progress. Eventually, the Jays Centre team stopped writing articles about what would happen when he rejoined the lineup. Now, at least, we can enjoy the modicum of relief that comes with the removal of uncertainty. It's José Berríos déjà vu all over again. Barger's 2026 numbers look dreadful, but it's not worth focusing on that. A 28-plate appearance sample is too small to draw any conclusions from. This was a lost season for the 26-year-old, but it wasn't a step back. That's a small but meaningful distinction. Addison Barger's Lost Season G PA H BB SO wRC+ 9 28 1 5 7 0 Of course, the pressure will be on for Barger not to take a step back when he eventually returns. In a best-case scenario, he'll be back to full health in more than enough time for a normal spring training. Even if that's the case, he'll have to reacclimate to the majors after a long time away. In a worst-case scenario (i.e., Tommy John surgery), he'll have to do that reacclimating in the middle of a season. Another concern is what this will do to Barger's gift from the baseball gods: his throwing arm. It might take a lot longer than six to nine months for him to regain complete arm strength. And what if he feels the need to dial it back permanently to protect himself from future injury? If that's what he needs to do, it's what he needs to do. That said, it's a little sad to think we may have seen his last 100-mph outfield assist. Addison Barger was one of my favourite players to watch in 2025. I'm sad we won't get to see him in 2026, but at least it's good to have some clarity. He'll go under the knife on Monday, and soon after, we'll learn what kind of surgery he needed. For now, I have my fingers crossed that it's not Tommy John. The sooner Barger is back hitting tanks and throwing missiles, the better. View full article

Agreed. Maybe I'm just in denial, but I'm still of the mind that I'd rather they keep everyone around and try to go on a miracle run. I'm just not convinced the prospects they could bring back would be worth selling. But if they can find a true impact prospect, that changes things.

According to reporter Ari Alexander of 7News Boston, the Toronto Blue Jays have claimed outfielder Rudy Martin Jr. off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Martin, 30, has had a long minor league career, primarily in the Kansas City Royals organization. Drafted in 2014, he finally made it onto a 40-man roster earlier this month, when he exercised an upward mobility clause in his latest minor league pact with Kansas City, prompting a trade to Baltimore. The Orioles added him to their 40-man roster last week, but they subsequently DFA'd him on Monday. Martin will presumably report to Triple-A Buffalo, though he will need a spot on Toronto's 40-man roster. The Jays could move Addison Barger or Lenyn Sosa to the 60-day IL to make room. In 64 games between Double and Triple A this season, the lefty-batting Martin is hitting .284 with a 127 wRC+ and 33 stolen bases. He has played all three outfield positions. View full rumor

The Blue Jays have placed Patrick Corbin on the 15-day injured list with a teres major strain. The left-hander gave up four runs on seven hits over 2.1 innings in his latest outing. He owns an 8.18 ERA in four appearances since moving to the bullpen. Corbin is known for his durability; this is his first non-COVID-related IL stint since he had Tommy John surgery in 2014. In Corbin's place, Toronto recalled fellow southpaw Adam Macko. The rookie got off to a hot start for the Blue Jays, holding his opponents scoreless in 14 of his first 15 games. Unfortunately, he has given up nine runs in five innings over his last four appearances for the big league club. He now owns a 5.03 ERA (and a 4.80 xERA) on the season, with a 4.18 ERA/4.08 xERA at Triple-A Buffalo. In an additional transaction, the Jays sent a struggling Sean Keys back down to the Bisons. The 23-year-old dominated minor league pitching over the first three months of the season, earning his call to the show in late June. Since then, he has often looked overwhelmed by major league arms, going just 6-for-36 with one walk, one home run, and 13 strikeouts. He only played in four of the team's last 10 games. Davis Schneider will return to replace Keys on the bench. The fan favourite has been the definition of a quad-A player this year. He has embarrassed minor league pitching in a couple of stints with the Buffalo Bisons (173 wRC+), but frustratingly, he's never looked worse at the major league level. View full rumor

In the five-year, $110 million contract that Kevin Gausman signed with the Toronto Blue Jays before the 2022 season, the right-hander negotiated a limited no-trade clause. He has the right to reject a trade to eight of the other 29 teams. Today, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported which teams those are: the Reds, Brewers, Tigers, Mets, Athletics, White Sox, Pirates, and Mariners. Of those teams, the Reds, Mets, and Athletics will not be buyers at the trade deadline, while the Tigers are still on the fence. The Pirates are interested in buying without taking on salary. The Mariners will be buying, but starting pitching is the one thing they definitely don't need. In other words, most of the teams that might be interested in Gausman aren't covered under his partial no-trade clause. And if a contender like the White Sox or especially the Brewers came calling, there's a good chance Gausman would accept a trade anyway. With that said, Gausman told reporters (including MLB.com's Keegan Matheson) after his latest start, "I'm not going to think about [the possibility of being traded] too much. I'm a Blue Jay right now, and the focus is this team, this room and those guys." View full rumor

The Blue Jays lost two of three to the White Sox over the weekend, falling to 46-53 on the season. With 13 games to play before the August 3 trade deadline, they need to go at least 10-3 in that span to be at .500 by deadline day. That's a tall order, especially since all four teams they'll play are at or above .500 right now: the Rays, Red Sox, Nationals, and Cardinals. It's getting harder and harder to stay optimistic. Toronto Blue Jays Weekend in Review (July 17-19) Friday, July 17: CHW 12, TOR 4 Spencer Miles gets rocked, White Sox pile on against Adam Macko, Patrick Corbin, Braydon Fisher. George Springer plays left field, Brandon Valenzuela DHs. Both hit home runs. Saturday, July 18: TOR 1, CHW 0 Joe Carter statue unveiled. Shane Bieber throws six scoreless innings. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. goes 2-for-3 with a double, a walk, and the game's only run. Louis Varland gets save number 20. Sunday, July 19: CHW 3, TOR 0 Trey Yesavage strikes out a season-high nine. Still takes the loss in a quality start. Ernie Clement and Nathan Lukes each reach base twice. Rest of lineup goes 1-for-23. Toronto Blue Jays Transactions of the Weekend Lazaro Estrada recalled. (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R on Sunday, July 19) Brendon Little recalled. CJ Van Eyk optioned. Adam Macko optioned. Ryan Sprock (acquired for Tommy Nance) assigned to High-A Vancouver Canadians. Blue Jays sign top three draft picks Cole Carlon (No. 39), Ryan Cooney (No. 103), Will Brick (No. 131). Toronto Blue Jays Injury Updates of the Week Max Scherzer got cortisone shots in his thumb. He threw in the bullpen over the weekend. His next rehab outing is not yet scheduled. Yimi García threw a bullpen on Saturday. Jesús Sánchez faced live pitching. Addison Barger is shut down from all baseball activities. He has not given up on returning this season. John Schneider says an August return is possible, if optimistic. Anthony Santander felt more shoulder pain and received a cortisone shot. He will be shut down for a few more days. Lenyn Sosa has not played since late June after suffering a setback in his rehab. He started hitting again this week. View full article