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Spanky__99 reacted to a post in a topic:
Nathan Lukes Hits IL, Yohendrick Pinango Gets the Call
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Another Blue Jay is on the shelf. Nathan Lukes exited early on Friday against the Guardians. Today, the Blue Jays placed him on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. Lukes joins fellow position players Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Addison Barger, and Anthony Santander on the IL. To replace Lukes in Toronto, the Jays are promoting another lefty-batting outfielder: Yohendrick Pinango. Soon to be 24 years old, Pinango will be making his MLB debut the first time he gets in a game. He is batting .288 with an .857 OPS and a 128 wRC+ at Triple-A Buffalo this season. Pinango was not on the 40-man roster, so the Blue Jays transferred reliever Yimi García from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL to open a space. García is now eligible to return no sooner than May 21.
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Another Blue Jay is on the shelf. Nathan Lukes exited early on Friday against the Guardians. Today, the Blue Jays placed him on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. Lukes joins fellow position players Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Addison Barger, and Anthony Santander on the IL. To replace Lukes in Toronto, the Jays are promoting another lefty-batting outfielder: Yohendrick Pinango. Soon to be 24 years old, Pinango will be making his MLB debut the first time he gets in a game. He is batting .288 with an .857 OPS and a 128 wRC+ at Triple-A Buffalo this season. Pinango was not on the 40-man roster, so the Blue Jays transferred reliever Yimi García from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL to open a space. García is now eligible to return no sooner than May 21. View full rumor
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Scherzer Needs His Strikeouts
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Blue Jays Trade for Willie MacIver, DFA Tyler Fitzgerald
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The Blue Jays acquired catcher Willie MacIver from the Rangers today in exchange for cash considerations. MacIver will report to Triple-A Buffalo; he has two minor league option years remaining. MacIver, 29, appeared in 33 games for the Athletics last season, including 31 behind the plate. He hit .186 with three home runs and a 58 wRC+. The rookie backstop earned negative grades in most defensive metrics in that small sample. With Alejandro Kirk on the injured list and Tyler Heineman having dealt with back spasms this year, it makes sense that the Blue Jays wanted to add a little more catching depth. To make room for MacIver on the 40-man roster, the Jays designated utility player Tyler Fitzgerald for assignment. They acquired Fitzgerald from the Giants earlier this month. While he spent some time on Toronto's active roster, he never made it into a game. In six games for Triple-A Buffalo, he went 3-for-20 with a double and two runs.
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The Blue Jays acquired catcher Willie MacIver from the Rangers today in exchange for cash considerations. MacIver will report to Triple-A Buffalo; he has two minor league option years remaining. MacIver, 29, appeared in 33 games for the Athletics last season, including 31 behind the plate. He hit .186 with three home runs and a 58 wRC+. The rookie backstop earned negative grades in most defensive metrics in that small sample. With Alejandro Kirk on the injured list and Tyler Heineman having dealt with back spasms this year, it makes sense that the Blue Jays wanted to add a little more catching depth. To make room for MacIver on the 40-man roster, the Jays designated utility player Tyler Fitzgerald for assignment. They acquired Fitzgerald from the Giants earlier this month. While he spent some time on Toronto's active roster, he never made it into a game. In six games for Triple-A Buffalo, he went 3-for-20 with a double and two runs. View full rumor
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Facing the team that drafted him 20 years earlier, Max Scherzer righted the ship after back-to-back short starts. His outings against the Dodgers and the Twins were enough to make me worry an IL stint was imminent, but Scherzer cruised through six innings on 74 pitches in Arizona, holding the Diamondbacks to a pair of runs. I breathed a sigh of relief after this one, even as the Blue Jays went on to lose 6-2. One thing that stood out to me from that start was Scherzer's strikeout. Yes, that's strikeout, singular. Of the 22 batters he faced, only one went down on strikes: old friend Lourdes Gurriel Jr. It's not so often these days that you see the same number in the "K" and "QS" columns on a pitcher's game log. Well, to be perfectly honest, it's actually more common than I thought. I ran a Statcast query for quality starts (at least 6.0 IP, three or fewer earned runs) in which the pitcher struck out one batter or fewer, and I was surprised to see there have already been five this season. There were 29 such starts in 2025. That's rare – it's the same as the number of complete games in 2025 – but it's not like Scherzer's start was some wild anomaly. Still, Scherzer's low strikeout rate this season is worth talking about. Through four starts, he's struck out 10 of 68 batters for a 14.7% K-rate. Once again, that's not shockingly low in context. Nineteen pitchers (min. 15 IP) have a lower strikeout rate this season. It is, however, unusually low for Scherzer. At his peak, he was striking out one-third of his opponents. Even as he entered his forties, he kept his K-rate around league average from 2024-25 (22.8%). Mad Max has made 299 quality starts in his storied career. The only other time he made a quality start with just one strikeout was in August 2011, before anyone else on this roster was even playing in the major leagues. Meanwhile, the last time he went five starts with a K-rate under 15% was 2010. He's in danger of doing that again – for the first time in 16 years – unless he has better strikeout stuff in his fifth start of the season today. Back in 2010, Scherzer had yet to become the legend we know him as today. More to the point, the leaguewide strikeout environment was completely different. The average K-rate for a starting pitcher was 17.6%, compared to 22.3% in 2026. So, relatively speaking, this may be the most Scherzer has ever struggled for strikeouts. That's not good. Even more concerning than Scherzer's 10 measly strikeouts are his 22 whiffs on 135 swings (16.3%). Out of 137 pitchers who have induced at least as many swings, only seven have a lower whiff rate. Missing bats isn't the only way to earn strikes, but no pitcher can live on called strikes and foul balls alone. If Scherzer is going to get more strikeouts, he'll have to start by generating more whiffs. This is especially important because Scherzer relies on strikeouts more than most pitchers. He has always been more of a power pitcher than a pitch-to-contact type. His career groundball rate is 18% below league average. Over the last two years, no starting pitcher has yielded grounders at a lower rate (26.7%). Accordingly, only a handful have given up barrels more often. Some pitchers can survive with a strikeout rate in the mid-teens. (Think late-career Zack Greinke, for example.) Yet, in order to do so, they need enough other tools in their belt. I'm not confident Scherzer has those tools. Now comes the time when I bring up small sample size. I know, I'm sorry. I'm sure you're tired of reading that phrase, but honestly, I deserve credit for waiting this long to bring it up. Scherzer has thrown fewer than 20 innings this season. That's nothing. One strong start tonight, and all of a sudden, this could be a non-issue. We also know he's been dealing with forearm tendinitis, even if it doesn't seem particularly serious. In other words, his lack of strikeouts is something to monitor, but not something to keep you up at night. If anyone has earned a little patience, it's the guy who had his first double-digit strikeout game before his youngest teammate was six years old. View full article
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Facing the team that drafted him 20 years earlier, Max Scherzer righted the ship after back-to-back short starts. His outings against the Dodgers and the Twins were enough to make me worry an IL stint was imminent, but Scherzer cruised through six innings on 74 pitches in Arizona, holding the Diamondbacks to a pair of runs. I breathed a sigh of relief after this one, even as the Blue Jays went on to lose 6-2. One thing that stood out to me from that start was Scherzer's strikeout. Yes, that's strikeout, singular. Of the 22 batters he faced, only one went down on strikes: old friend Lourdes Gurriel Jr. It's not so often these days that you see the same number in the "K" and "QS" columns on a pitcher's game log. Well, to be perfectly honest, it's actually more common than I thought. I ran a Statcast query for quality starts (at least 6.0 IP, three or fewer earned runs) in which the pitcher struck out one batter or fewer, and I was surprised to see there have already been five this season. There were 29 such starts in 2025. That's rare – it's the same as the number of complete games in 2025 – but it's not like Scherzer's start was some wild anomaly. Still, Scherzer's low strikeout rate this season is worth talking about. Through four starts, he's struck out 10 of 68 batters for a 14.7% K-rate. Once again, that's not shockingly low in context. Nineteen pitchers (min. 15 IP) have a lower strikeout rate this season. It is, however, unusually low for Scherzer. At his peak, he was striking out one-third of his opponents. Even as he entered his forties, he kept his K-rate around league average from 2024-25 (22.8%). Mad Max has made 299 quality starts in his storied career. The only other time he made a quality start with just one strikeout was in August 2011, before anyone else on this roster was even playing in the major leagues. Meanwhile, the last time he went five starts with a K-rate under 15% was 2010. He's in danger of doing that again – for the first time in 16 years – unless he has better strikeout stuff in his fifth start of the season today. Back in 2010, Scherzer had yet to become the legend we know him as today. More to the point, the leaguewide strikeout environment was completely different. The average K-rate for a starting pitcher was 17.6%, compared to 22.3% in 2026. So, relatively speaking, this may be the most Scherzer has ever struggled for strikeouts. That's not good. Even more concerning than Scherzer's 10 measly strikeouts are his 22 whiffs on 135 swings (16.3%). Out of 137 pitchers who have induced at least as many swings, only seven have a lower whiff rate. Missing bats isn't the only way to earn strikes, but no pitcher can live on called strikes and foul balls alone. If Scherzer is going to get more strikeouts, he'll have to start by generating more whiffs. This is especially important because Scherzer relies on strikeouts more than most pitchers. He has always been more of a power pitcher than a pitch-to-contact type. His career groundball rate is 18% below league average. Over the last two years, no starting pitcher has yielded grounders at a lower rate (26.7%). Accordingly, only a handful have given up barrels more often. Some pitchers can survive with a strikeout rate in the mid-teens. (Think late-career Zack Greinke, for example.) Yet, in order to do so, they need enough other tools in their belt. I'm not confident Scherzer has those tools. Now comes the time when I bring up small sample size. I know, I'm sorry. I'm sure you're tired of reading that phrase, but honestly, I deserve credit for waiting this long to bring it up. Scherzer has thrown fewer than 20 innings this season. That's nothing. One strong start tonight, and all of a sudden, this could be a non-issue. We also know he's been dealing with forearm tendinitis, even if it doesn't seem particularly serious. In other words, his lack of strikeouts is something to monitor, but not something to keep you up at night. If anyone has earned a little patience, it's the guy who had his first double-digit strikeout game before his youngest teammate was six years old.
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Louis Varland's One-Pitch Wonder
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The Blue Jays have something special in Louis Varland. The 28-year-old has been, almost certainly, the AL's best reliever so far in 2026. Of the 49 AL arms with at least 10 innings pitched in relief this season, Varland is one of just two who have yet to allow an earned run, and one of just nine who have yet to give up a barrelled ball. His 19 strikeouts rank second, trailing only his teammate Jeff Hoffman, while his 58.3% groundball rate is tied for third (min. 10 IP). He pitches with equal parts power and precision, leading with a fastball that sits 98 (and feels even faster thanks to his elite extension) and mixing in four more weapons with diverse shapes, all of which have a case to be called plus pitches. Today, however, I only want to talk about one pitch. Literally one pitch: The final pitch from yesterday's 4-2 win against the Angels. Late last night, the Blue Jays found themselves three outs away from sealing their first series victory since they swept the Athletics in March. Despite all his struggles this year, Hoffman took the ball for the bottom of the ninth, looking for his second save in as many days. Instead, a single, back-to-back hit-by-pitches, and another single put the winning run on first base. After 11 minutes, 18 pitches, and just one out, Hoffman's day was done. That's when John Schneider called on Varland. A week earlier, Varland replaced Hoffman with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth against the Brewers. At the time, it was the highest-pressure entrance of his career, according to FanGraphs' leverage index. Not anymore. Yesterday, Varland came on with one out instead of two and the chance to secure a win, not just maintain a tie. The leverage index when he entered against the Brewers was 6.39. Last night, it was 7.37. Keep in mind, an average situation has a leverage index of 1.0. Anything over 2.0 is considered high. With the stakes dialled up to 11, Varland took the mound. The criteria for success were clear. The runner on third didn’t matter, but Varland needed to record two outs before any more Angels made it across the plate. It only took him one pitch to pull it off. Facing the lefty-batting Nolan Schanuel, Varland delivered a changeup. It was the second time all season he started an at-bat with his change. But the unusual decision paid off. Varland located his offering perfectly. It was a strike, so Schanuel swung, but it wasn't a pitch he could punish. It just barely grazed the lower outside corner of the zone, and Schanuel sent it bouncing to Ernie Clement at second base. Here's what happened next: Clement to Andrés Giménez for one. Easy. The second out was going to be much closer, but Giménez sent a laser into Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s glove. A replay review confirmed what we already knew. The game was over. The Blue Jays had won. And Varland only needed one pitch. One-pitch saves are rare. Varland's was the first of the season, and it very well could be the last. There was only one in 2025. There were four the year before, but once again, only one in 2023. Since saves became an official stat in 1969, one-pitch saves make up roughly one-third of one percent of all saves. The last Blue Jay to record a one-pitch save was Casey Janssen in 2014. Indeed, Janssen is responsible for two of the eight one-pitch saves in team history. He's one of 30 pitchers to have had multiple one-pitch saves in his career. (Trevor Hoffman tops that list with five one-pitch saves to his name.) Here is the complete list of Toronto Blue Jays one-pitch saves: Pitcher Date Louis Varland 2026-04-21 Casey Janssen 2014-06-05 Steve Delabar 2013-07-10 Casey Janssen 2007-08-28 Jason Frasor 2004-05-27 Randy Myers 1998-08-01 Tony Castillo 1996-07-11 Al Leiter 1993-08-03 Of course, Varland's effort wasn't merely a one-pitch save. It was a one-pitch, two-out save. No Blue Jays pitcher had ever done that before. It was also a one-pitch, two-out, bases-loaded save – only the eighth such save in recorded major league history. If you still aren't impressed, you can think of it like this. A one-pitch save is about as rare as a no-hitter. A one-pitch, two-out save is about as rare as a perfect game. A one-pitch, two-out, bases-loaded save is about as rare as an unassisted triple play. The cherry on top is that this was the first save of Varland's professional career. He joins Chris Holt as the second-ever pitcher to earn his first MLB save in such dramatic fashion, and even Holt had previously saved a professional game in the independent Frontier League. The last time Varland recorded a save was his sophomore year of college. With a single pitch on Tuesday night, Louis Varland made personal history, team history, and professional baseball history. And the best part is, he's only just getting started. View full article
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The Blue Jays have something special in Louis Varland. The 28-year-old has been, almost certainly, the AL's best reliever so far in 2026. Of the 49 AL arms with at least 10 innings pitched in relief this season, Varland is one of just two who have yet to allow an earned run, and one of just nine who have yet to give up a barrelled ball. His 19 strikeouts rank second, trailing only his teammate Jeff Hoffman, while his 58.3% groundball rate is tied for third (min. 10 IP). He pitches with equal parts power and precision, leading with a fastball that sits 98 (and feels even faster thanks to his elite extension) and mixing in four more weapons with diverse shapes, all of which have a case to be called plus pitches. Today, however, I only want to talk about one pitch. Literally one pitch: The final pitch from yesterday's 4-2 win against the Angels. Late last night, the Blue Jays found themselves three outs away from sealing their first series victory since they swept the Athletics in March. Despite all his struggles this year, Hoffman took the ball for the bottom of the ninth, looking for his second save in as many days. Instead, a single, back-to-back hit-by-pitches, and another single put the winning run on first base. After 11 minutes, 18 pitches, and just one out, Hoffman's day was done. That's when John Schneider called on Varland. A week earlier, Varland replaced Hoffman with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth against the Brewers. At the time, it was the highest-pressure entrance of his career, according to FanGraphs' leverage index. Not anymore. Yesterday, Varland came on with one out instead of two and the chance to secure a win, not just maintain a tie. The leverage index when he entered against the Brewers was 6.39. Last night, it was 7.37. Keep in mind, an average situation has a leverage index of 1.0. Anything over 2.0 is considered high. With the stakes dialled up to 11, Varland took the mound. The criteria for success were clear. The runner on third didn’t matter, but Varland needed to record two outs before any more Angels made it across the plate. It only took him one pitch to pull it off. Facing the lefty-batting Nolan Schanuel, Varland delivered a changeup. It was the second time all season he started an at-bat with his change. But the unusual decision paid off. Varland located his offering perfectly. It was a strike, so Schanuel swung, but it wasn't a pitch he could punish. It just barely grazed the lower outside corner of the zone, and Schanuel sent it bouncing to Ernie Clement at second base. Here's what happened next: Clement to Andrés Giménez for one. Easy. The second out was going to be much closer, but Giménez sent a laser into Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s glove. A replay review confirmed what we already knew. The game was over. The Blue Jays had won. And Varland only needed one pitch. One-pitch saves are rare. Varland's was the first of the season, and it very well could be the last. There was only one in 2025. There were four the year before, but once again, only one in 2023. Since saves became an official stat in 1969, one-pitch saves make up roughly one-third of one percent of all saves. The last Blue Jay to record a one-pitch save was Casey Janssen in 2014. Indeed, Janssen is responsible for two of the eight one-pitch saves in team history. He's one of 30 pitchers to have had multiple one-pitch saves in his career. (Trevor Hoffman tops that list with five one-pitch saves to his name.) Here is the complete list of Toronto Blue Jays one-pitch saves: Pitcher Date Louis Varland 2026-04-21 Casey Janssen 2014-06-05 Steve Delabar 2013-07-10 Casey Janssen 2007-08-28 Jason Frasor 2004-05-27 Randy Myers 1998-08-01 Tony Castillo 1996-07-11 Al Leiter 1993-08-03 Of course, Varland's effort wasn't merely a one-pitch save. It was a one-pitch, two-out save. No Blue Jays pitcher had ever done that before. It was also a one-pitch, two-out, bases-loaded save – only the eighth such save in recorded major league history. If you still aren't impressed, you can think of it like this. A one-pitch save is about as rare as a no-hitter. A one-pitch, two-out save is about as rare as a perfect game. A one-pitch, two-out, bases-loaded save is about as rare as an unassisted triple play. The cherry on top is that this was the first save of Varland's professional career. He joins Chris Holt as the second-ever pitcher to earn his first MLB save in such dramatic fashion, and even Holt had previously saved a professional game in the independent Frontier League. The last time Varland recorded a save was his sophomore year of college. With a single pitch on Tuesday night, Louis Varland made personal history, team history, and professional baseball history. And the best part is, he's only just getting started.
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Spanky__99 reacted to an article:
Is Eric Lauer Changing His Ways?
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Eric Lauer wanted to prove he could start full-time in 2026. He hasn't had the results he was hoping for yet. Much like the rest of the Blue Jays, Lauer looked sharp in the season's opening series against the Athletics. Then the floor fell out from under him. Battling through the flu, he lasted just two innings against the White Sox. Six days later, perhaps still suffering the aftereffects of his illness, he gave up seven runs to the Twins. To his credit, he gave up all seven in the third inning and stuck it out into the sixth, but his final line was hardly inspiring: two home runs, five walks, and just three strikeouts in 5.1 innings. Judging by the box score, Lauer's most recent outing last week against the Diamondbacks was a return to form. In five innings, he struck out four, walked just one, and limited Arizona to three runs. Yet, he expressed frustration that he entered after an opener, telling reporters after the game: "To be real blunt, I hate it. I can't stand it." Lauer's response wasn't surprising. He has made it very clear he wants to be a regular starter. And while it's easy to understand the logic behind the opener – Lauer pitched through the sixth inning and only had to face Arizona's dangerous top three twice – it's just as easy to understand why he didn't like it. He's a competitor. He doesn't want to avoid opponents like Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo. He wants to face them head-on. That's precisely the attitude you want in a pitcher, especially if that pitcher also understands that he ultimately has to do what's best for the team. As Lauer put it, "You work with what you got... We're trying to find ways to win." The early part of Lauer's 2026 has been characterized by ups and downs, by jerks and tugs, by ebbs and flows. He spent the winter watching his chances of an Opening Day rotation slot dwindle. First, Shane Bieber picked up his player option. Then the Jays signed Dylan Cease. And Cody Ponce. And Max Scherzer. Like Schrödinger's pitcher, Lauer came into spring training as both a starter and a reliever simultaneously. He saw himself as a starter. The Blue Jays had him stretch out as a starter. Yet, the fans, the team, and Lauer himself all knew he was more likely to end up in the bullpen. Until he didn't. That's a tough way to prepare for the season, and the past few weeks haven't exactly helped him settle into a routine. So, when I say the 2026 season hasn't started the way Lauer was hoping it would, I don't mean that as an all-out criticism. It's just as much a justification. I'm not ready to judge Lauer for his 7.13 ERA or his -0.1 fWAR. Instead, I'm happy to let each new start be a blank slate, at least for the time being. With that in mind, I'm not going to draw any serious conclusions about Lauer today. But I do want to examine the way he's deploying his arsenal this season and, in particular, one pitch. Fittingly, in a year that has already been marked by changes, that pitch is his changeup. Lauer threw 134 changeups last year, accounting for 8.0% of his total pitches. However, since he almost never throws the pitch against same-handed opponents, it's more meaningful to say he used it 10.3% of the time against righties. It was his quaternary weapon against right-handers, behind his four-seam fastball (45.2%), his cutter (20.2%), and his curveball (15.8%), and just ahead of his slider (8.3%). Four starts into 2026, he's more than doubled his changeup usage. Lauer has already thrown 58 changeups to righties this year, almost half as many as he threw in all of 2025. With a 21.9% usage rate, it's become his secondary pitch against opposite-handed hitters. When he's ahead in the count, he's throwing it almost as often as his fastball. In two-strike counts, he's thrown as many changeups as all his other secondaries combined. The reason I find this adjustment so surprising is that, well, Lauer's changeup wasn't very good in 2025. Honestly, it kind of sucked. Right-handed opponents crushed the pitch, posting a 55.6% hard-hit rate, a .430 wOBA, and .544 xwOBA. By Statcast's run value per 100 pitches (RV/100), it was one of the 10 least effective changeups in the league. Of course, sometimes good pitches see bad results. But I don't think that's what this was. According to the pitch models PitchingBot and Stuff+, Lauer's changeup was well below average in terms of both stuff and location. There just wasn't anything to love about it. That's not to say it had no role in his arsenal; it came in at a similar speed to his cutter but broke in the opposite direction, giving him a way to get righties to chase outside. The problem was that it wasn't particularly good at accomplishing that goal. The classic advice is to throw your best pitch more often, not your worst. I'm not sure what Lauer's up to. Clearly, he thinks his changeup can be better this year. He's also throwing it a little differently, in pursuit of that goal. For one thing, he's getting more arm-side movement on the pitch this year. The result is an offering that's further differentiated from the rest of his arsenal. That's what you want from a changeup: change. Lauer is also locating his changeup in the zone more often, without sacrificing chase. That means more strikes. Indeed, he's already recorded two strikeouts on his changeup this year. That may not sound like much, but consider that he didn't strike out any right-handed batters with his changeup last season. Despite those adjustments, PitchingBot and Stuff+ remain unenthused by Lauer's changeup. It's also far too early to draw any meaningful conclusions from the results. So, over Lauer's next handful of outings, I'll be paying attention to when, where, and how often he throws his changeup. I'm happy to give him and Pete Walker the benefit of the doubt for now, but if he continues to underwhelm, eventually I'll start wondering why he changed an approach that worked pretty darn well in 2025. View full article
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Eric Lauer wanted to prove he could start full-time in 2026. He hasn't had the results he was hoping for yet. Much like the rest of the Blue Jays, Lauer looked sharp in the season's opening series against the Athletics. Then the floor fell out from under him. Battling through the flu, he lasted just two innings against the White Sox. Six days later, perhaps still suffering the aftereffects of his illness, he gave up seven runs to the Twins. To his credit, he gave up all seven in the third inning and stuck it out into the sixth, but his final line was hardly inspiring: two home runs, five walks, and just three strikeouts in 5.1 innings. Judging by the box score, Lauer's most recent outing last week against the Diamondbacks was a return to form. In five innings, he struck out four, walked just one, and limited Arizona to three runs. Yet, he expressed frustration that he entered after an opener, telling reporters after the game: "To be real blunt, I hate it. I can't stand it." Lauer's response wasn't surprising. He has made it very clear he wants to be a regular starter. And while it's easy to understand the logic behind the opener – Lauer pitched through the sixth inning and only had to face Arizona's dangerous top three twice – it's just as easy to understand why he didn't like it. He's a competitor. He doesn't want to avoid opponents like Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo. He wants to face them head-on. That's precisely the attitude you want in a pitcher, especially if that pitcher also understands that he ultimately has to do what's best for the team. As Lauer put it, "You work with what you got... We're trying to find ways to win." The early part of Lauer's 2026 has been characterized by ups and downs, by jerks and tugs, by ebbs and flows. He spent the winter watching his chances of an Opening Day rotation slot dwindle. First, Shane Bieber picked up his player option. Then the Jays signed Dylan Cease. And Cody Ponce. And Max Scherzer. Like Schrödinger's pitcher, Lauer came into spring training as both a starter and a reliever simultaneously. He saw himself as a starter. The Blue Jays had him stretch out as a starter. Yet, the fans, the team, and Lauer himself all knew he was more likely to end up in the bullpen. Until he didn't. That's a tough way to prepare for the season, and the past few weeks haven't exactly helped him settle into a routine. So, when I say the 2026 season hasn't started the way Lauer was hoping it would, I don't mean that as an all-out criticism. It's just as much a justification. I'm not ready to judge Lauer for his 7.13 ERA or his -0.1 fWAR. Instead, I'm happy to let each new start be a blank slate, at least for the time being. With that in mind, I'm not going to draw any serious conclusions about Lauer today. But I do want to examine the way he's deploying his arsenal this season and, in particular, one pitch. Fittingly, in a year that has already been marked by changes, that pitch is his changeup. Lauer threw 134 changeups last year, accounting for 8.0% of his total pitches. However, since he almost never throws the pitch against same-handed opponents, it's more meaningful to say he used it 10.3% of the time against righties. It was his quaternary weapon against right-handers, behind his four-seam fastball (45.2%), his cutter (20.2%), and his curveball (15.8%), and just ahead of his slider (8.3%). Four starts into 2026, he's more than doubled his changeup usage. Lauer has already thrown 58 changeups to righties this year, almost half as many as he threw in all of 2025. With a 21.9% usage rate, it's become his secondary pitch against opposite-handed hitters. When he's ahead in the count, he's throwing it almost as often as his fastball. In two-strike counts, he's thrown as many changeups as all his other secondaries combined. The reason I find this adjustment so surprising is that, well, Lauer's changeup wasn't very good in 2025. Honestly, it kind of sucked. Right-handed opponents crushed the pitch, posting a 55.6% hard-hit rate, a .430 wOBA, and .544 xwOBA. By Statcast's run value per 100 pitches (RV/100), it was one of the 10 least effective changeups in the league. Of course, sometimes good pitches see bad results. But I don't think that's what this was. According to the pitch models PitchingBot and Stuff+, Lauer's changeup was well below average in terms of both stuff and location. There just wasn't anything to love about it. That's not to say it had no role in his arsenal; it came in at a similar speed to his cutter but broke in the opposite direction, giving him a way to get righties to chase outside. The problem was that it wasn't particularly good at accomplishing that goal. The classic advice is to throw your best pitch more often, not your worst. I'm not sure what Lauer's up to. Clearly, he thinks his changeup can be better this year. He's also throwing it a little differently, in pursuit of that goal. For one thing, he's getting more arm-side movement on the pitch this year. The result is an offering that's further differentiated from the rest of his arsenal. That's what you want from a changeup: change. Lauer is also locating his changeup in the zone more often, without sacrificing chase. That means more strikes. Indeed, he's already recorded two strikeouts on his changeup this year. That may not sound like much, but consider that he didn't strike out any right-handed batters with his changeup last season. Despite those adjustments, PitchingBot and Stuff+ remain unenthused by Lauer's changeup. It's also far too early to draw any meaningful conclusions from the results. So, over Lauer's next handful of outings, I'll be paying attention to when, where, and how often he throws his changeup. I'm happy to give him and Pete Walker the benefit of the doubt for now, but if he continues to underwhelm, eventually I'll start wondering why he changed an approach that worked pretty darn well in 2025.
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Leo Morgenstern reacted to a post in a topic:
Toronto Blue Jays 2026 Top Prospect Rankings: No. 2 JoJo Parker
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Toronto Blue Jays 2026 Top Prospect Rankings: No. 2 JoJo Parker
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Lazaro Estrada Nursing Shoulder Impingement
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Leo Morgenstern reacted to a post in a topic:
Please, We Need More Photos of the Blue Jays Striking Out
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Lazaro Estrada gave the Blue Jays everything they could have asked for in his 2026 debut, pitching four scoreless innings in place of an injured Cody Ponce. The Jays optioned Estrada to the minors the following day. However, Sportsnet's Shi Davidi reports that the righty suffered a shoulder impingement in connection with that outing. As such, the Blue Jays have reversed his option and instead placed him on the major league 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 5. Estrada will be eligible to come off the IL on Monday, but it seems unlikely he'll be ready that soon. So, the Blue Jays have one less depth arm for the time being. Thankfully, both Trey Yesavage and José Berríos continue to make progress on their rehab assignments. Each could be ready to return at some point later this month.
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Lazaro Estrada Nursing Shoulder Impingement
Leo Morgenstern posted a topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Lazaro Estrada gave the Blue Jays everything they could have asked for in his 2026 debut, pitching four scoreless innings in place of an injured Cody Ponce. The Jays optioned Estrada to the minors the following day. However, Sportsnet's Shi Davidi reports that the righty suffered a shoulder impingement in connection with that outing. As such, the Blue Jays have reversed his option and instead placed him on the major league 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 5. Estrada will be eligible to come off the IL on Monday, but it seems unlikely he'll be ready that soon. So, the Blue Jays have one less depth arm for the time being. Thankfully, both Trey Yesavage and José Berríos continue to make progress on their rehab assignments. Each could be ready to return at some point later this month. View full rumor -
Dear sports photographers, I'm incredibly grateful for the work you do. You play such an important role in recording and relating the story of the game. Our website would look lifeless without you. With all that said... I have to make a request. I need more photos to use when the Blue Jays are struggling at the plate. I get it. Hits are more exciting than strikeouts. Moments of celebration sell better than moments of failure. I'm sure hitters aren't too thrilled to have their picture taken as they walk back to the dugout in defeat. But I can't use a photo of a Blue Jays batter getting a hit in an article about how badly their bats have stunk. As I write this, the Blue Jays are 7-10. Their offense has struggled. As much as it pains me to cover those struggles, that's what I signed up for. My fellow scribes and I have to write about all the ways this team has disappointed us. The problem? We're burning through images that depict those struggles faster than you're putting them out. On Thursday, I published a piece about the team's poor performance with runners in scoring position. That's been a recurring theme throughout the first three weeks of the season. Yet, you wouldn't know it by scrolling through our image service. All I needed was one photo of a Blue Jays batter not succeeding at the plate to use as the featured image. That was a lot harder to find than you'd think. This one of George Springer would have been perfect, but I had already used it. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images I had also already used the images I found of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (here) and Kazuma Okamoto (here) staring into the distance after striking out. Like I said, the Blue Jays have struggled, and we've had to cover those struggles. Images courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski & Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images Eventually, after scrolling through pages and pages of pictures of the Blue Jays getting hits, scoring runs, and donning celebratory jackets, I settled on a slightly different shot of Okamoto reacting to the same strikeout. That's how limited my options were. It doesn't have to be this way. I know the Blue Jays don't strike out a whole lot. It's kind of their thing. But that's relative. They may have struck out less than any other team, but they've still done it 117 times this year. That's only 25 fewer strikeouts than hits! And it's not as if these photos need to be strikeouts. Give me a picture of a batter hitting into a groundout or a pop-up. Give me a one of a swing and a miss. I don't even care if I can see the disappointment on the batter's face. Sure, an evocative facial expression is a plus, but I'm not greedy. All I need is literally any photo of a Blue Jays batter that isn't of him getting a hit or celebrating a hit. They're shockingly hard to find. To be fair, I found a good number of photos of Blue Jays getting hits in which it isn't explicitly clear that they're getting hits. Could I have gotten away with using this shot of Ernie Clement? Probably. But it wouldn't have felt right. I would have known he hit a single with that swing, and I'm no peddler of misinformation. I left the watermark on, and I left the image out of my article. Image courtesy of Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images. If you still aren't convinced how dire this situation is, let me use Wednesday's game against the Brewers as an example. The Blue Jays' bats failed to capitalize on a great outing from Dylan Cease, losing 2-1. They went 5-for-30 with no extra-base hits. Their 35% whiff rate (21 whiffs on 60 swings) was their highest in any game so far this season. Despite that highly disappointing offensive showing, there wasn't a single picture from that game I could use as the header for this article. Our image service gave me 48 pictures from game day, including shots I certainly never needed to see of Easton McGee, Aaron Ashby, and Trevor Megill stretching in the bullpen. Images courtesy of Mark Hoffman-Imagn Images. There were two images of Blue Jays batters I could choose from for the entire game. One was Guerrero hitting a single. The other was Okamoto drawing a walk. But I needed more than just images of success when the clear story of the game, at least for Toronto's offense, was failure. On top of that, I also found an image of Brewers pitcher Chad Patrick reacting in distress to what turned out to be a fly out. That raises a whole other issue. It's never hard to find images of pitchers looking disappointed. There are so many of them that you can even find pictures of pitchers looking like they failed when they didn't! What is it about pitching failures that compels photographers so much, when it seems like many of you wouldn't capture a hitter's failure with a ten-foot lens? Look at this portrait of Eloy Jiménez. I used it recently for an article about his call-up. Jiménez was about to play his first MLB game since September 2024. The photographer, John E. Sokolowski, captured the moment perfectly. Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images Look at the sheer joy on his face. All I'm asking for is the occasional photo that captures a similar degree of disappointment. I don't want to have to use those photos, but until the Blue Jays start playing better baseball, I don't have much of a choice. We're getting dangerously close to me having to photoshop this George Springer frown onto his teammates' faces. I don't want to do that, and I know you don't want to see it. So please, baseball photographers, I'm begging you. Your writer and editor friends need more pictures of hitters looking discouraged, defeated, and downright despondent. The only alternative is asking the Blue Jays to play better baseball, and, well, I'm trying to be realistic here. View full article
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Please, We Need More Photos of the Blue Jays Striking Out
Leo Morgenstern posted an article in Just For Fun
Dear sports photographers, I'm incredibly grateful for the work you do. You play such an important role in recording and relating the story of the game. Our website would look lifeless without you. With all that said... I have to make a request. I need more photos to use when the Blue Jays are struggling at the plate. I get it. Hits are more exciting than strikeouts. Moments of celebration sell better than moments of failure. I'm sure hitters aren't too thrilled to have their picture taken as they walk back to the dugout in defeat. But I can't use a photo of a Blue Jays batter getting a hit in an article about how badly their bats have stunk. As I write this, the Blue Jays are 7-10. Their offense has struggled. As much as it pains me to cover those struggles, that's what I signed up for. My fellow scribes and I have to write about all the ways this team has disappointed us. The problem? We're burning through images that depict those struggles faster than you're putting them out. On Thursday, I published a piece about the team's poor performance with runners in scoring position. That's been a recurring theme throughout the first three weeks of the season. Yet, you wouldn't know it by scrolling through our image service. All I needed was one photo of a Blue Jays batter not succeeding at the plate to use as the featured image. That was a lot harder to find than you'd think. This one of George Springer would have been perfect, but I had already used it. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images I had also already used the images I found of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (here) and Kazuma Okamoto (here) staring into the distance after striking out. Like I said, the Blue Jays have struggled, and we've had to cover those struggles. Images courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski & Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images Eventually, after scrolling through pages and pages of pictures of the Blue Jays getting hits, scoring runs, and donning celebratory jackets, I settled on a slightly different shot of Okamoto reacting to the same strikeout. That's how limited my options were. It doesn't have to be this way. I know the Blue Jays don't strike out a whole lot. It's kind of their thing. But that's relative. They may have struck out less than any other team, but they've still done it 117 times this year. That's only 25 fewer strikeouts than hits! And it's not as if these photos need to be strikeouts. Give me a picture of a batter hitting into a groundout or a pop-up. Give me a one of a swing and a miss. I don't even care if I can see the disappointment on the batter's face. Sure, an evocative facial expression is a plus, but I'm not greedy. All I need is literally any photo of a Blue Jays batter that isn't of him getting a hit or celebrating a hit. They're shockingly hard to find. To be fair, I found a good number of photos of Blue Jays getting hits in which it isn't explicitly clear that they're getting hits. Could I have gotten away with using this shot of Ernie Clement? Probably. But it wouldn't have felt right. I would have known he hit a single with that swing, and I'm no peddler of misinformation. I left the watermark on, and I left the image out of my article. Image courtesy of Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images. If you still aren't convinced how dire this situation is, let me use Wednesday's game against the Brewers as an example. The Blue Jays' bats failed to capitalize on a great outing from Dylan Cease, losing 2-1. They went 5-for-30 with no extra-base hits. Their 35% whiff rate (21 whiffs on 60 swings) was their highest in any game so far this season. Despite that highly disappointing offensive showing, there wasn't a single picture from that game I could use as the header for this article. Our image service gave me 48 pictures from game day, including shots I certainly never needed to see of Easton McGee, Aaron Ashby, and Trevor Megill stretching in the bullpen. Images courtesy of Mark Hoffman-Imagn Images. There were two images of Blue Jays batters I could choose from for the entire game. One was Guerrero hitting a single. The other was Okamoto drawing a walk. But I needed more than just images of success when the clear story of the game, at least for Toronto's offense, was failure. On top of that, I also found an image of Brewers pitcher Chad Patrick reacting in distress to what turned out to be a fly out. That raises a whole other issue. It's never hard to find images of pitchers looking disappointed. There are so many of them that you can even find pictures of pitchers looking like they failed when they didn't! What is it about pitching failures that compels photographers so much, when it seems like many of you wouldn't capture a hitter's failure with a ten-foot lens? Look at this portrait of Eloy Jiménez. I used it recently for an article about his call-up. Jiménez was about to play his first MLB game since September 2024. The photographer, John E. Sokolowski, captured the moment perfectly. Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images Look at the sheer joy on his face. All I'm asking for is the occasional photo that captures a similar degree of disappointment. I don't want to have to use those photos, but until the Blue Jays start playing better baseball, I don't have much of a choice. We're getting dangerously close to me having to photoshop this George Springer frown onto his teammates' faces. I don't want to do that, and I know you don't want to see it. So please, baseball photographers, I'm begging you. Your writer and editor friends need more pictures of hitters looking discouraged, defeated, and downright despondent. The only alternative is asking the Blue Jays to play better baseball, and, well, I'm trying to be realistic here.

