The Curious Case of Daulton Varsho Ahead of the Trade Deadline

Daulton Varsho may be the toughest decision the Blue Jays have to make at this year's trade deadline.

The Blue Jays have underperformed expectations, and with the trade deadline fast approaching, moving expiring contracts is becoming a more realistic possibility by the day. Varsho is set to become a free agent after the season, making him one of the team's most intriguing trade chips.

Just one season ago, Varsho looked like he’d unlocked another level offensively, hitting 21 home runs in just 71 games, despite dealing with injuries throughout the year. This season, his power has disappeared, his defensive metrics have taken a step back, and the Blue Jays have to decide whether they're looking at a temporary down year or a player in decline.

To understand why this decision is so complicated, it's worth looking at how Varsho got to this point.

Earlier this season, Varsho’s offensive approach looked noticeably different. He traded some of his fast swings for more contact, and while the adjustment has helped him strike out less and walk more than he did a year ago, the power has largely disappeared. The result has been a 91 wRC+ and a below-league-average offensive season. 

Considering Varsho was expected to be a middle-of-the-order contributor, that’s been one of the reasons the Blue Jays' offense has struggled.

Then there’s the question of the defence. Varsho had been well known as one of the best defensive outfielders in the league (which is thoroughly impressive for a player who came up as a catcher). From 2022-25, according to Fielding Run Value, Varsho was the best defensive outfielder in baseball, and it wasn’t particularly close:


But even that number has taken a dramatic step back in 2026. He’s currently tied for 26th out of all outfielders with an FRV of just +3.

Part of that is likely because of the rotator cuff surgery, which appears to have affected his arm strength, and some of the defensive decline may also come from a loss of athleticism, as his sprint speed went from 28.4 ft/sec in 2025, down to a below-league-average 27.2 ft/sec this season.

In fact, just about everything from his baseball savant profile is down across the board:


All of that leaves the Blue Jays facing an uncomfortable question. If Varsho isn’t the same hitter (or defender) as he was a year ago, then what should they do with him at the upcoming trade deadline?

That’s what makes Varsho such a fascinating trade candidate. He’s set to become a free agent at the end of the season, and because of that alone, he seems like a likely candidate to be moved at the deadline, but there’s a lot more to it than meets the eye.

Unlike many rental players, the Blue Jays already have a fallback option. If they keep Varsho through the season, they can issue him a qualifying offer. If he accepts, they keep a starting center fielder for another season. If he declines and signs elsewhere, they receive draft pick compensation, so any return the Blue Jays get in a trade will need to be more valuable than that.

The real test of whether Varsho is moved will be how he’s valued by teams across the league. As previously mentioned, Varsho’s season simply hasn’t been that productive. He's been a worse-than-league-average bat, his sprint speed has taken a step back, and he has been just a one-win player (according to fWAR) on the season so far.

If a rival front office views Varsho as the player he’s been in 2026, the return probably isn’t as significant as the Blue Jays might hope. The closest comp could be Cedric Mullins,  who was traded from the Orioles to the Mets at last year's trade deadline.

Both players are roughly the same age. They hit from the same side of the plate. Mullins had a .690 OPS last season, whereas Varsho’s sits at .689. Both have built their value around elite center field defence, and were/are both set to be free agents at season's end.



For Mullins, the Orioles received three right-handed pitchers in that trade, including the Mets' 14th- and 30th-ranked prospects, as well as another unranked prospect in their system, according to MLB Pipeline. It’s a reasonable comparison for projecting what the Blue Jays could expect in return. Is that price worth the potential draft pick compensation or the potential of Varsho coming back on the qualifying offer? It's tough to say.

Of course, another team may view Varsho very differently. He is just one season removed from a 20-home run, 123 wRC+ season. He’s also a former Gold Glove winner who now has postseason experience under his belt. If another team thinks they can bring that player back into the picture, the price for Varsho would be much higher, and then the Blue Jays would almost certainly move on from their center fielder.

Now, if the Blue Jays do decide to make a trade, there should be several suitors available. Whether the real Varsho is the 92 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR player he’s been this season, or the one who hit 20 home runs in 71 games in 2025, or anywhere in between, he can still provide value to any club headed to the postseason, and center field defence will always be valuable, especially in October, where every play is magnified.

With that in mind, contenders with below-average center field production or a need for another left-handed bat could view Varsho as one of the more attractive position players available. Here are some of those teams: 

The Phillies: By fWAR, they have one of the worst outfields in baseball, and inserting Varsho into center immediately gives them an upgrade on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.

The Astros: Houston seems like a potential fit for an impact left-handed hitting outfielder. Taylor Trammell, Brice Matthews, and Jake Meyers have been rotating in the outfield, and recently called-up Lucas Spence has been spending time in center. Varsho would fit in here easily.

The Rays: Admittedly, this won’t feel great for Blue Jays fans, but the Jays have proven they will trade within their division in the past, and the Rays value outfield defence just as much as anybody.

That’s what makes Varsho one of the most fascinating players to watch over the next two weeks. The Blue Jays know exactly what he was in 2025; they also know what he’s been in 2026. What they, and the rest of baseball, still have to decide is which version of Daulton Varsho they believe is the real one. Until another team answers that question with an aggressive offer, the Blue Jays may be better off betting on the return of the Varsho they saw last season.