Jesse Burrill

The Blue Jays have spent the first half of the season chasing one goal. Trying to get above .500 On Thursday evening, they did it again. After falling behind 6-0, the team clawed its way back before ultimately falling one run short. It was another comeback that almost was. They keep fighting their way back to the doorstep; they just haven’t found a way to walk through it. After 81 games, the Blue Jays sit at 39-42, third place in the division, and are in a four-way tie for the third and final wild card spot, even with all the injuries and underperformances from key players on the roster. It's still a spot that very few people around baseball thought the Blue Jays would be at. But before you can become a winning baseball team, you first have to get above .500. The Blue Jays have spent the first half of the season chasing the milestone over and over again. Four different times the Blue Jays have fought their way back to even, and four different times they’ve walked away still searching for answers. Here are the four times they’ve had a chance to do so and what happened: Opening Day, March 27th, (0-0) vs Athletics, 65.2% Playoff Odds This was the only time this season the Blue Jays actually went above the .500 mark, but even then, the warning signs were there. Kevin Gausman struck out 11 over six dominant innings, Andres Gimenez supplied the offence, and Toronto appeared poised for a smooth win on Opening Day. But after handing the ball to Jeff Hoffman with a one-run lead in the ninth, Shea Langeliers tied the game with a home run, the Blue Jays had a blown save, and the team was forced to walk it off in the bottom half The Blue Jays ultimately won the game and, in turn, started the season 1-0. The Blue Jays climbed above .500 for the first time on the season. But even in the victory, the warning signs were there, and as we’d soon find out, it wouldn’t last. Second Attempt: April 5th @ White Sox, (4-4), Playoff odds 51.4% After sweeping the Athletics and losing two of three from the Rockies, the Blue Jays entered the finale of the first road series at 4-4 with an opportunity to climb back above .500 after dropping the first two games in Chicago. The offence never gave the team a chance. The Blue Jays managed just six hits, all singles, went 0-6 with runners in scoring position and were shut out for the first time all season. Eric Lauer allowed three runs over 2+ innings, but the lack of offence proved to be the bigger story as the Blue Jays were swept and fell back below .500. Third Attempt: May 30th @ Baltimore (29-29), Playoff Odds 55.3% It took nearly two months for Toronto to fight its way back to .500, but after series wins against the Pirates and Marlins and taking the first two against the Orioles, the Blue Jays had an opportunity to finally get over the hump. They appeared to do everything right. Trey Yesavage battled through five innings, Kazuma Okamoto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helped build a 5-1 lead late, and after Jeff Hoffman struck out the Orioles ' lead-off hitter, the Blue Jays had a 99.4% win probability to get over the hump. Then everything unravelled. Hoffman allowed six straight Orioles to reach base, turning a four-run lead into a tie game before Connor Seabold was called in to try to escape the jam, before Pete Alonso completed Baltimore's stunning comeback with a walk-off single, and yet again the Blue Jays found themselves on the doorstep of .500. Fourth Attempt: June 23 VS Houston, (39-39) Playoff Odds 56.4% Less than a month later, Toronto found itself back at .500 once again. Despite falling behind early in Shane Bieber's season debut, the Blue Jays rallied behind home runs from Luis Urias and Daulton Varsho before Kazuma Okamoto delivered a go-ahead two-run single in the eighth inning. With Louis Varland unavailable, Tyler Rogers was tasked with protecting a two-run lead in the ninth. He couldn’t. The Astros pieced together three singles and benefited from a costly catcher's interference to tie the game. After the Blue Jays couldn’t score with a runner in scoring position in the bottom half, Joey Loperfido’s three-run home run completed another heartbreaking loss. Just like that, the Blue Jays had another blown save and yet again fell below .500. This has been the underlying story of the Blue Jays' 2026 season so far. Kevin Gausman said it best: " It feels like we take four steps forward and two steps back." Since that loss, the Blue Jays have lost their next two games, falling behind again. Every baseball season has its peaks and valleys, but championship teams know how to capitalize when momentum finally arrives. That’s been the difference for Toronto. Every time the Blue Jays have climbed back to the doorstep of a winning record, they’ve stumbled before they could walk through the door. If there’s a reason for optimism, it's that the Blue Jays don’t need to prove they can fight back; they’ve already done that four different times. What the second half will determine is whether they can finally turn those comebacks into sustained momentum. The American League remains wide open. The opportunity is still there. The Blue Jays just can’t afford to let their next chance to get above .500 slip away like their previous four. View full article

It feels like we still need one more high-impact bullpen arm. Antonio Senzatela is my guy

The Blue Jays certainly have a type. On Saturday afternoon, the Blue Jays made a minor trade with the Diamondbacks to acquire infielder Luis Urias in exchange for cash considerations. The move on its own won’t generate a ton of headlines. He has bounced between organizations and is a career .231/.329/.378 hitter over eight big league seasons. Urias had an “upward mobility clause” in his contract, which forced the Diamondbacks to either promote him, release him, or trade him, and the Blue Jays pounced at the opportunity. The Blue Jays' bench has been heavily skewed toward left-handed hitters and outfielders, so the addition of a right-handed hitting infielder doesn't come as much of a surprise. What is surprising, however, is why they chose Urias. Urias has never established himself as a consistent, productive major league hitter. He has an OPS under .700 in each of his last three seasons. He’s in the bottom 20% in the league in sprint speed, and defensively, he’s been a negative in both Outs Above Average (OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Add it all up, and you can see why the Diamondbacks weren’t willing to give him a spot on their major league roster. The question now becomes, what do the Blue Jays see in Urias that the Diamondbacks don't? The answer may lie in the underlying data. More specifically, the Blue Jays may be betting on a set of underlying skills that look far better than Urias’ traditional numbers suggest. First, Urias made notable changes to his approach in the 2025 season with the Athletics. Prior to that point, he had been known as a patient (or sometimes even passive) hitter. He drew his fair share of walks (career 10.2 BB%), but the approach often came at the expense of impact contact. During that stretch, his line drive rate, average exit velocity, and wOBA all sat below league average. In 2025, however, Urias began making a different kind of contact. Urias’ swing rate stayed relatively inline with his career average, but the amount of contact he was making, particularly on pitches in the zone, skyrocketed. The 91.8% zone contact rate rose by 9.2% over the prior season and by over 7.3% on his career average. That zone contact rate was higher in 2025 than both Bo Bichette (91.7%) and Nathan Lukes (91.0%), who are both relatively well known for their ability to make contact on pitches in the zone. There’s more to hitting than simply making contact; some of the highest contact rate hitters in baseball typically have slower swings. Urias hasn't done that; in fact, he’s started making more contact while also swinging harder. It's a rare combination. The combination of elite zone-contact rates and increased bat speed was a major part of the Blue Jays' offensive identity during their 2025 World Series run. It's exactly the type of skill set the Blue Jays have shown a preference for. Making contact is important, but contact quality matters too. Urias has always been able to hit the ball in the air to the pull side, which adds another layer to his offensive profile. The league-average pull-air rate sits at 16.8%. Urias’ career mark is 19.8%. Hitting the ball in the air to the pull side matters, especially when you're not an exit velocity machine. This chart is from a FanGraphs article from 2023 about wOBA and hit direction based on exit velocity. Urias has never been great at producing elite exit velocity, so when he does get his bat on the ball, hitting the ball to the pull side is going to yield better results. Taken individually, none of these traits is enough to make Urias an impact player. Taken together, however, they paint a picture of the exact type of hitter Toronto has targeted in recent years: a player who controls the strike zone, makes frequent contact, and creates enough bat speed to do damage when he pulls the ball in the air. These are exactly the types of underlying skills teams often target because they tend to stabilise before traditional results do. Part of the reason the Blue Jays bought into Urias is that he’s been keeping up this production in Triple-A so far. On the season, he’s hitting .361/.393/.546. The .367 BAPIP is likely to come down due to regression and making the adjustment to major league pitching, but all of the adjustments he made in 2025 look to be sticking around so far. The zone contact rate is still at an outstanding 92.4%, and while we don’t have public data for bat speed in Triple-A, the 87.3 average EV is slightly higher than the 86.2 EV he had with the A’s in 2025, suggesting that the bat speed is holding firm. The underlying traits help explain why Toronto targeted Urias. Roster construction explains why they moved now. Team needs are a large part of this, too. The Diamondbacks middle infield is set with two all-stars, Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo. There wasn’t much of an opportunity for him there, but on the Blue Jays, there was a real need. Down on the farm, the Blue Jays' middle infield options are lackluster. Top prospect Josh Kasevich has just a 94 wRC+ in Buffalo. Arjun Nimmala and JoJo Parker are still too far away to make an impact this season, and there are no other currently healthy middle infielders on the 40-man roster that could help the team. The Blue Jays aren’t asking Urias to save their offence. If they were, he wouldn’t have been available for cash in the first place. Instead, Toronto is betting on a collection of traits that it has consistently valued: elite zone contact, improving bat speed, and the ability to pull the ball in the air. Similar bets have produced mixed results, but the Blue Jays clearly believe Urias is worth the gamble. Whether Urias becomes the next success story remains to be seen, but if nothing else, his acquisition serves as another reminder that the Blue Jays clearly have a type and Urias fits it perfectly. View full article

The Blue Jays expected Alejandro Kirk's return to solve a problem. Instead, it may have created a new one. When the season began, Kirk was on the short list of Blue Jays players the team couldn't afford to lose. He’s a middle-of-the-order bat, a leader in the clubhouse, and one of the best defenders in all of baseball. From 2023 through 2025, only Patrick Bailey had a higher Defensive Runs Above Average (Def) than Kirk. All it took was seven games. Kirk took a foul ball off his thumb, suffering a fracture that sent him to the injured list for the next two months. Because of the injury, the Blue Jays found themselves in a difficult spot. Tyler Heineman was expected to handle most of the catching duties, while Brandon Valenzuela, a rookie who had impressed throughout spring training, was called up to fill the void. The transition to the major leagues is difficult for any prospect, but the challenge is even greater for catchers, who must not only adjust to big league pitching at the plate but also learn how to manage an entirely new pitching staff behind it. Valenzuela was more than ready for the task. Since his debut, Valenzuela has posted a 121 wRC+. His seven home runs are tied for second on the team, and his .792 OPS leads the Blue Jays (as of June 17). Defensively, Valenzuela has been just as impressive. His Defensive Runs Above Average trails only Andrés Giménez on the Blue Jays and ranks among the top five catchers in baseball dating back to Kirk's injury. Baseball Savant loves his glove too. His 4.89-second average pop time is in the 82nd percentile in baseball, he’s in the 90th percentile in caught stealing above average, and his framing has been incredible. Only Dillon Dingler and Adley Rutschman have more catcher framing runs than Valenzuela. Valenzuela's emergence has been noticed by the organization, as when Kirk returned from the injured list, the Blue Jays chose to keep him on the roster, despite his having minor league options, even if it meant the risk of losing Heineman (who is a good defensive catcher in his own right) to waivers or free agency. As a team that values depth and roster control, it wouldn’t have been a shock if they chose to send Valenzuela down instead. The challenge for the Blue Jays wasn't determining whether Valenzuela had played well enough to remain on the roster; he clearly had. The challenge is figuring out what comes next. The simple solution would be to just insert Kirk back into the starting role and have Valenzuela take up the traditional backup catcher job, playing once every four or five days or when Kirk needs a break. The problem with that is that Valenzuela has been too good offensively to take out of the lineup right now: (image from https://thatsball.baby/jays) For a Blue Jays team that is in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored, wRC+, wOBA, and home runs, it's hard to justify giving one of the best hitters on the team less playing time and expecting the results to get better. There is another factor to consider. For as well as Valenzuela has played so far, he’s still a prospect who needs time to develop at the major league level. Catchers develop differently from other prospects, and the Blue Jays want to be confident that the Kirk-Valenzuela tandem will be their catching tandem of the future. Valenzuela losing reps behind the plate will only slow the evaluation process. With all that said, Kirk remains one of the most important players on the roster. While Valenzuela is still building relationships with Toronto’s pitching staff, Kirk has already established himself as one of the game’s premier defensive catchers. For a team trying to win games now, that familiarity and stability behind the plate carries significant value. As impressive as Valenzuela has been, the Blue Jays still need Kirk in the lineup as often as possible. Finding playing time for both catchers won't be easy. With Heineman now traded to the Angels, the Blue Jays are operating with only two catchers, making lineup flexibility more important than ever. Most teams prefer not to start both catchers on the same day because it limits late-game options and increases the risk of running out of depth if an injury occurs. That reality means Kirk and Valenzuela won't be in the batting order together every day. Still, with the Blue Jays desperately searching for offence, there will be plenty of situations in which John Schneider will be tempted to find a way to fit both bats into the same lineup. The easiest way to get both players into the lineup is to have Valenzuela or Kirk play another position. Recently, John Schneider mentioned that George Springer could see the occasional start in right field, opening the designated hitter spot for one of the two catchers. Valenzuela could also factor in at first base after appearing there 68 times in the minor leagues; he has recently begun taking practice reps at the position again. The good news in all of this is that it is essentially a good problem for the Blue Jays to have. They have too many talented players for not enough lineup spots, so John Schneider can get creative with how he uses his two catchers. Prioritizing Valenzuela doesn’t mean Kirk will see less playing time. Heineman still found his way into 31 games before he was designated for assignment. Taking into account that Valenzuela is a switch-hitter, getting him into the lineup against a tough right-handed pitcher will give the Blue Jays a platoon advantage. In baseball, these things tend to have a way of sorting themselves out. Remember, the Blue Jays were supposed to have too many pitchers for not enough spots, and that hasn’t turned out to be true either. Catchers tend to take on a tremendous amount of wear and tear over the course of the season, so having depth at the position is still incredibly important. But as long as the Blue Jays continue to search for more offence, they’ll need to find ways to get their best hitters into the lineup more often. For the time being, that includes both Alejandro Kirk and Brandon Valenzuela. The challenge for John Schneider is no longer deciding whether Valenzuela belongs in the major leagues. He has already answered that question. The challenge now is finding enough opportunities for one of the Blue Jays’ most productive hitters to stay on the field. Stats updated prior to games on June 18. View full article

Stats updated prior to the Blue Jays' game on Wednesday, June 10. Ernie Clement is doing something that baseball history says shouldn't be possible. The Blue Jays infielder is among Major League Baseball’s hit leaders despite chasing pitches at a rate that would normally prevent a hitter from reaching the top of the leaderboard. Most hitters in today’s game strive to maximize their power: swinging harder, optimizing their launch angles, and focusing on doing damage at the plate. For some players, that plan works well. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have had great careers doing just that. But one of the great things about baseball is that there is more than one way to be productive. Regardless of the situation, Clement has a knack for getting the bat on the ball. So far in the 2026 season, he has continued to do exactly that. Just take a quick look at the MLB leaderboard for hits, and there is Ernie, right near the top: What’s incredibly unique about Clement is that he’s doing it in a way that very few hitters have ever managed successfully. He swings more often than anyone on the Blue Jays and makes more contact than most of his teammates. He doesn’t swing the bat that hard (67.6 mph average bat speed), which results in a low average exit velocity. He doesn’t walk, but he also doesn't strike out; somehow, he just keeps getting hits, and while a .317 BABIP tells some of the story, it's not the whole picture. Jays fans who have watched Ernie play know full well that he swings at almost anything he can reach, so even when a pitcher paints a pitch outside of the zone, he is still able to hit it. It's a skill that very few hitters in baseball possess. These are the 2026 hit leaders on pitches outside of the zone, per Baseball Savant: T-1: Ernie Clement - 27 T-1: Alec Burleson - 27 T-3: Otto Lopez - 24 T-3: Shohei Ohtani - 24 5: Jonathan Aranda - 23 The fact that Clement is near the top of the hits leaderboard isn’t unusual by itself. Every season, someone leads baseball in hits. What's unusual is how he’s getting there. The hitters who typically occupy the top of the leaderboard are disciplined hitters who limit chase and maximize quality contact. Clement is attempting to do it while chasing pitches at a rate rarely seen among baseball’s elite hit collectors. Looking back at every MLB hits leader over the last 12 seasons and comparing them to their chase rates reveals just how unusual his season has been: Ernie Clement's 2026 chase rate entering play on June 9. What Ernie Clement is doing is statistically unheard of in the Statcast era, and history suggests it's unlikely he’ll ultimately finish with the most hits in baseball while chasing this often. Yet, Clement has one skill that allows him to get away with it. When he swings, he simply does not miss. Clement owns a contact rate of 85.7%, which has him in the top 20 in MLB. While most hitters who chase pitches out of the zone rack up strikeouts, Clement consistently finds a way to get the bat on the baseball. The only reason Ernie gets away with it is how often he takes those out-of-zone pitches he swings at and puts them in play, doing so 44.3% of the time. This is where Clement’s path to accumulating hits begins to emerge. Because he rarely draws walks (3.0% BB rate) and strikes out infrequently (10.0% K rate), 87.0% of his plate appearances end with a ball in play. It's a number that ranks second among qualified hitters, behind only Luis Arraez. (You can find the full leaderboard here, updated before games on June 9.) From there its how many of those batted balls turn into hits. And that's where BABIP comes into the picture. On the season, Clement owns a .320 BABIP, meaning that 32% of balls he puts into the field of play have resulted in hits. It also helps that he's on pace for a career-high 17 home runs; home runs aren't included in the calculation of BABIP. High BABIPs are typically driven by elite speed, hard contact, line drives, or an all-fields approach. Ernie doesn’t necessarily excel in any of these categories. His sprint speed sits at 27.9 ft/sec, 66th percentile in the league. His 19.8% line drive rate (per FanGraphs) sits almost exactly at league average. His average exit velocity sits in the bottom sixth percentile in baseball, and if you take a look at his hit chart, it's fairly safe to say that an all-fields approach isn't behind this either. via Baseball Savant If Clement isn’t generating hits through elite speed or elite power, then the question becomes, what is driving his success? The secret lies in his hand-eye coordination. Baseball Savant measures this through a statistic called squared-up rate. In simple terms, it measures how much exit velocity a hitter generates relative to the maximum possible exit velocity, based on their bat speed and the speed of the pitch. On squared-up baseballs this season, hitters have produced a .380 batting average and a .678 slugging percentage. Clement has squared up the ball 35.2% of the time, placing him in the top six percent of all major league hitters. That doesn't tell the whole story, though. Clement seems to have a knack for hitting the baseball where the defenders aren't; this is evident in the difference between his xBA and his actual BA. His xBA, which calculates how likely a player is to get a hit based on launch angle and exit velocity, sits at .258. The 46-point difference between his .258 xBA and his .304 actual batting average suggests Clement has benefited from some favourable results, but it also raises the question of whether traditional models fully capture his unusual contact profile. Leading baseball in hits is often as much about availability as it is talent. The game’s hit leaders don’t just hit well; they’re also in the lineup every day. Ernie has played in 67 of the Blue Jays' 68 games so far. Given the defensive value he provides and his ability to play anywhere in the infield, playing time is unlikely to be a concern, barring injury. History suggests Clement’s approach shouldn’t work this well. Hit leaders typically don't chase this many pitches, and players with his batted ball profile rarely sustain this kind of production. Yet here he is, sitting among baseball’s hit leaders anyway. Whether Ernie Clement ultimately finishes as baseball's hit king is almost beside the point. What makes his season remarkable is that he’s forcing us to reconsider what a modern hitter can look like. If he keeps doing that, his first All-Star appearance may not be far behind. View full article

It's been a rollercoaster of a ride for the Blue Jays through two months of the regular season. The team has battled injuries and inconsistent production, and its lineup has struggled to score runs regularly. The one standout through all the injuries has been the pitching staff. In May, the Blue Jays' 3.45 ERA ranked fourth in the AL. Their 14.5% K-BB% also ranked fourth, and by the Stuff+ numbers on FanGraphs, the staff ranked third, just behind the Mariners and Rays. Not bad for a team that currently has seven starting pitchers on the IL. Add recent injuries to Joe Mantiply and Tommy Nance to pair with Yimi García’s extended absence, and the Blue Jays are down three prominent relievers as well. In this piece, we’re going to take a look at some of the pitchers that have stood out to make the Blue Jays' staff stand strong as they head into the summer months of the season. Honourable Mention: Mason Fluharty May Stats: 11.0 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 14 K, 2 BB, 0.82 ERA, 0.909 WHIP Mason Fluharty has overcome a rocky start and was one of the team's more dominant relievers in May. Not only is he now the undisputed number one left-handed option in the bullpen, but he’s also been one of the best in all of baseball. Coming into the finale against the Orioles (in which he struck out all three batters he faced), Fluharty’s FIP ranked third among left-handed pitchers during May (min. 10 IP). His 31 appearances on the season have him atop the MLB leaderboard, and his workload will be worth monitoring. But for now, Fluharty has been excellent, has clearly earned his manager's trust, and has established himself as a key member of this bullpen. Honourable Mention: Kevin Gausman May Stats: 28.2 IP, 32 H, 10 ER, 26 K, 4 BB, 3.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP Out of all the pitchers that have dealt with injuries this season, it's somewhat surprising that the pitcher who threw the most pitches and faced the most batters in 2025 isn't one of them. Kevin Gausman’s month as a whole was quietly effective, but his durability and ability to pitch quality innings don’t go unnoticed. His strikeout totals have dipped from his career norms, but he consistently attacked the strike zone this month, leading all Blue Jays pitchers (min. 10 IP) in walk rate (3.7%) and leading all Blue Jays starters in chase rate (38.4%), accumulating 1.0 fWAR in the process. Gausman just quietly keeps getting it done. Honourable Mention: Dylan Cease May Stats: 30.2IP, 23 H, 11 ER, 43 K, 9 BB, 3.23 ERA, 1.04 WHIP Dylan Cease has been the best Blue Jays starter this season, and he was well on his way to being number one on this list until a hamstring injury put him on the IL for the first time in his career. When he was on the mound, he was nasty as always. He threw seven innings in each of his first three starts of the month, including a 10-strikeout, no-run outing against the Angels. The home run ball caught up to him in his final two starts of the month, allowing two to the Yankees and two more against the Pirates, which made his numbers go from outstanding to just very good. Once Cease recovers from his injury, all signs point to him being a dominant pitcher once again. No. 3: Spencer Miles May Stats: 20.2 IP, 17 H, 9 ER, 19 K, 7 BB, 3.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP Where would this team be without Spencer Miles? Rule 5 picks with virtually no professional experience rarely become meaningful contributors, let alone one as impactful as Miles. Miles was tasked with being the de facto “long man” out of the bullpen to cover one of the bullpen days, and he’s done it with flying colours. A four-pitch mix with excellent command has done him wonders, and his ability to induce soft contact has been noticeable, as his 85.4 average EV was the lowest among the "starters" (min. 20 IP) in May. Sunday’s rough outing may have been his first sign of fatigue, but it shouldn't overshadow what was an excellent month for him. No. 2: Trey Yesavage May Stats: 31.2 IP, 22 H, 9 ER, 36 K, 17 BB, 2.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP Welcome back, Trey Yesavage! After his 2026 season start was delayed by right shoulder impingement, Trey returned and immediately made an impact. His 31.2 innings led all Blue Jays pitchers in May, as did his 1.1 fWAR. The swing-and-miss stuff is still clearly evident, as he led all Blue Jays starters with a 14.9% swinging strike rate. The highlight was when he went into Yankee Stadium, matched up against fellow rookie Cam Schlitter, and Yesavage got the better end of it, striking out Aaron Judge three times and, most importantly, earning the win. His command has wavered at times, as evidenced by a 38.7% zone rate and a seven-walk performance on Saturday, ultimately keeping him from the top spot on this list. Still, it's hard to argue with the results, and he was one of the biggest reasons the Blue Jays’ pitching staff excelled in May. No. 1: Louis Varland May Stats: 15.0 IP, 11 H, 0 ER, 16 K, 5 BB, 0.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP Louis Varland is not only the best reliever on the Blue Jays, but you could also make an argument that he’s been the best reliever in baseball this season. In the month of May, Varland led all MLB relievers in Win Probability Added (1.66). He led all Blue Jays pitchers in groundball rate, soft contact rate, ERA, and saves. John Schneider has trusted him to get outs against the toughest parts of opposing lineups, and on three separate occasions, Varland has recorded multi-inning saves, highlighted by a scoreless ninth and 10th inning in Detroit earlier in the month. If Varland keeps this up (and there’s no reason to think he won't), then that first All-Star Game is likely in sight. Varland was Jays Centre's Pitcher of the Month for March/April, and he makes it twice in a row with his appearance here in May. Heading into June, the Blue Jays' pitchers will need to continue carrying their share of the load as the club looks to climb back into the playoff picture. With reliable veterans like Gausman, emerging contributors like Yesavage and Miles, and reinforcements like Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber on the way, the pitching staff is finally starting to come together. With Varland continuing his dominance at the back end of the bullpen, the Blue Jays' pitching staff is going to be in good shape going forward. View full article

Editor's Note: This article was written prior to yesterday's game. Hoffman took the loss on Saturday, giving up five runs in the bottom of the ninth. He threw his slider 54% of the time (13 out of 24 pitches), Jeff Hoffman’s removal from the closer role in late April could have easily become one of the defining stories of the Blue Jays season. Instead, Louis Varland ran with the opportunity, emerging as one of the best relievers in baseball and solidifying the late-game picture for the Blue Jays. Lost in Varland’s dominance has been Hoffman's own reinvention. Since being removed from the role, Hoffman has quietly posted a 2.45 ERA, while striking out 20 batters and walking just two. The improved results may not be a coincidence either. Over the past few weeks, Hoffman has made a significant change to how he attacks opposing hitters. Hoffman has been one of the more perplexing pitchers in Toronto’s bullpen since arriving in Toronto. At times, he’s looked virtually unhittable, overpowering hitters with elite swing-and-miss stuff. Then on occasion, he’s been surprisingly vulnerable, particularly when it comes to the home run ball. In 2025, Hoffman allowed 15 home runs, the most of any reliever in the American League, a surprising outcome for a pitcher with such impressive underlying characteristics. Historically, Hoffman has relied on a three-pitch mix: a fastball that averages 97 mph with 17.4 inches of vertical break, a slider that generated a 47.3% whiff rate in 2025, and a splitter that he would use as a weapon predominantly against left-handed hitters. In 2025, as well as early on in 2026, he led with his four-seam fastball, throwing it 37.4% of the time last season, and 38.4% through his first 21 games this season. The problem with that is that Hoffman’s fastball simply hasn’t been very effective. Here's how his three most used pitch types performed in 2025: Four-seam fastball: .915 OPS, 10 HR Slider: .498 OPS, 3 HR Splitter: .642 OPS, 2 HR Those trends have continued so far in 2026: Four-seam fastball: .960 OPS, 3 HR Slider: .725, 0 HR Splitter: .641, 0 HR For Hoffman, the fastball has been the pitch that has given him the most trouble. The obvious solution would seem incredibly simple: just throw it less often. Over his past six appearances, Hoffman has been doing exactly that. Over his last six games, Hoffman has leaned heavily on his slider as his primary pitch, throwing it 64.9% of the time, compared to a 35.2% on the regular season. The fastball is down to just 16% usage, compared to 34.6% overall rate in 2026. The change is an understandable one. The slider has consistently been Hoffman’s most effective pitch, and the disparity in results between it and the fastball makes the adjustment a logical one. Since making the change, he’s thrown six innings, allowed four hits, faced 20 batters, struck out 10 of them, and walked none. On the surface, the adjustment makes perfect sense. After all, Hoffman's slider has consistently produced better results than his fastball. What's more interesting is figuring out why his fastball has struggled so much in the first place. The surprising part is that Hoffman isn’t getting hit because he lacks stuff. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Looking at the Stuff+ metric on FanGraphs, Hoffman’s four-seam fastball ranks eighth in baseball among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched: It's unusual for a pitch that grades this well to produce results so poor. In other words, the problem isn’t in the quality of the pitch itself. Usually, when that happens, location is the first issue that comes to mind, but for Hoffman, that hasn’t necessarily been the case either. Location+ has Hoffman's fastball third highest on the team. It is also the second-highest of those eight pitchers named on the previous list. So, if that's not the case, it's time to dive a little deeper, and the problem seems to stem from when he throws his fastball. Here's where he's thrown the pitch when he’s ahead in the count: When he’s behind in the count: And when the count is even: The data suggests Hoffman may be becoming too predictable. When hitters find themselves in even counts, they’re frequently getting a fastball in the portion of the zone where four-seamers are the most vulnerable. At that point, the quality of the pitch matters less than the hitter's ability to anticipate it. Since he’s made the change, Hoffman has posted a 31% zone rate and a 38.5% chase rate on the slider. The challenge with any slider-heavy approach is maintaining enough strike-throwing ability to keep hitters honest. If opposing hitters become too comfortable taking the pitch, Hoffman could find himself back in situations where hitters can sit on his fastball, and as we’ve seen, that doesn’t historically go well. His adjustment also reflects a broader league-wide trend. League-wide, fastball usage has dropped even though fastballs are being thrown harder than ever before. For the Blue Jays, this is another example of them trying to get the most out of what they have in a pitcher. Varland remains the headline act in Toronto’s bullpen, but Hoffman’s recent adjustment may be just as important. By shifting away from a fastball that has consistently been his most vulnerable pitch and leaning into a slider that has long been his most dominant weapon, Hoffman appears to be evolving into a more complete reliever. For a Blue Jays team that has struggled offensively for most of the season, turning late leads into wins is critical, and Hoffman’s new approach could play a major role in making that happen. 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The Blue Jays have been searching for a defining moment all season. Between injuries, underperformance from key veterans, and their position in the AL East slipping quickly, the club desperately needed a spark. For now, Daulton Varsho’s walk-off grand slam last Wednesday may be just the spark the Blue Jays were looking for. It was the Blue Jays' first grand slam of the season and one of their biggest offensive swings of the year. More importantly, it came against a division rival they are actively trying to catch in the AL East. For Daulton Varsho, this has to have been a relief. Aside from a small stretch earlier in the season when he hit three home runs in four games, his power had virtually disappeared, mirroring the larger offensive issues the Blue Jays have dealt with as a team. Entering games on May 20, Varsho was on pace for 17 home runs, after hitting 20 in an injury-shortened 71-game season the year prior. A lot of the power numbers – including his SLG, ISO, and barrel rate – have all taken a sharp drop through 46 games this season. At first glance, that change may appear to be a step backward for a Blue Jays team desperate for power, but the underlying production suggests Varsho has not necessarily become a worse hitter, just a different one. Firstly, let's flash back to what made him successful in 2025. Varsho sold out for power in a noticeable way. He mashed 20 home runs in 71 games, his pull-air rate (29.5%) had him in the top 15 in baseball, and his bat speed, and most notably his fast swing rate, soared to 56.2%. Particularly, he became elite at doing damage on pitches low in the zone: The approach did come with trade-offs. Varsho posted a career-high swinging strike rate (15.4%) and a five-year low contact rate (71.7%), but the elite damage more than justified the sacrifice. He enjoyed the best offensive season of his career, mashing 20 home runs while posting a career-high .833 OPS. Varsho had a clear plan of attack at the plate, and with it came immediate success. That is what has made his 2026 season so fascinating. Many of the traits that fueled his breakout 2025 campaign have faded, forcing him to find different ways to remain productive offensively. First, pitchers adjust. If Varsho was going to consistently hammer pitches low in the zone, opposing staffs were naturally going to attack him differently, and that has clearly happened early in 2026: On top of that, some of the skills that made Varsho elite have fallen by the wayside, too. His fast swing rate has dropped significantly, as has his pull-air rate: These changes could be connected. League-wide, batters typically swing slower on pitches up in the zone, and balls that get on you quickly are less likely to be hit in the air to the pull side. But even with that, Varsho still isn’t swinging as hard, even on the pitches he does get down in the zone: In today's game, where teams can identify and attack offensive tendencies almost immediately, hitters rarely survive in the long term with just one version of themselves. The league constantly forces adjustments, and the best players in the game are usually the ones who adjust with them. Varsho appears to understand that. Rather than continuing to chase the exact offensive profile that made him successful in 2025, he has started reshaping his approach to counter the way pitchers are now attacking him. His decrease in bat speed has coincided with improved contact, and while not all of it is good, there have been some notable improvements: Stat 2025 2026 Difference K Rate 28.4% 18.4% +10.0% BB Rate 6.3% 8.6% +2.3% OBP .284 .346 +.062 Line Drive Rate 16.9% 24.8% +6.9% Varsho's plate approach has shifted dramatically. He’s gone from a high-torque, pull-side power approach to a more disciplined approach built around contact and on-base ability. It's an offensive identity the Blue Jays have increasingly embraced as a team. The change in approach isn’t necessarily a bad thing. While the Blue Jays could certainly use more power, especially after John Schneider called out his team's need for slug following Tuesday’s loss to the Yankees, Varsho has remained productive despite the change in approach. As a result, his numbers on the season look quite similar to where they were last year. His wOBA is virtually the same (.345 in ‘25 vs .346 in ‘26), his wRC+ is similar (123 vs 120), and he is currently on pace to be the Blue Jays' best position player by bWAR (4.4). In other words, the production hasn’t disappeared; it's arriving in a different form. If anything, Daulton Varsho has added another dimension to his offensive game. He has already proven he can impact the ball with elite pull-side power, and this season he has shown an ability to contribute through patience, contact quality, and on-base ability. Considering Varsho entered professional baseball as a catcher before developing into one of the sport's best defensive outfielders, his ability to reinvent himself offensively should not be underestimated. The next step for Varsho may be learning when to lean into each version of his offensive game. Can he unleash an aggressive, pull-side swing when pitchers make mistakes inside the zone, while also maintaining the more disciplined approach he has developed this season? If he can consistently blend those two identities together, the Blue Jays may unlock an even more complete hitter. Since Varsho’s grand slam last Wednesday, he’s hitting .500 with a 1.272 OPS in a small sample, offering a glimpse of what this newer version of himself can look like when everything clicks. John Schneider appeared to recognize that as well, hitting him third in the lineup against right-handed pitching over the road trip. There is still plenty of baseball left to play, but Varsho’s season may be less about rediscovering his old form and more about refining a new one. If pitchers are eventually forced to adjust again, it may signal that his offensive evolution is beginning to work and that an even more complete version of Varsho may still be emerging. Stats and graphics updated prior to games on May 20. View full article