Jesse Burrill

The Blue Jays' lack of power has been a serious issue this year. Pick your favourite stat: home runs, ISO, average exit velocity, or hard-hit rate. The Blue Jays rank in the bottom third in the league in all of them, and that's part of the reason why they find themselves below .500 early in the season. Take a quick look at the wRC+ leaderboard for the team, and here’s what you’ll see: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 139 Myles Straw - 129 Kazuma Okamoto - 119 Ernie Clement - 100 Daulton Varsho - 96 * Stats going into games on May 5, min. 50 PA The name at the top isn't surprising. But what's more surprising: that the Blue Jays have only three hitters with a wRC+ over 100? Or that Myles Straw is one of them? While the answer to that is likely the former, it’s absolutely a surprise that Straw has been hitting the ball so well. His reputation is that of an elite defensive outfielder, a threat on the bases, and a good quality guy in the clubhouse. The bat, however, has always been an issue. Since 2020, he’s never had a wRC+ above 100, and he’s never hit more than four home runs in a season. It got to the point that the Cleveland Guardians had him play in the minors for most of 2024. Even with that elite speed and defence. Fast forward to 2026, and Straw has looked like a completely different hitter. The results speak for themselves, but the real story is how he's achieving them. Straw is swinging harder and, more importantly, pulling the ball in the air at a rate like never before. That's how you hit rockets into the upper deck. While Straw may never be a true impact power hitter, he’s been able to get the most out of his swings so far. via Baseball Savant The first change is how hard he’s been swinging. His bat speed has been up slightly, but the more meaningful jump is in his fast swing rate, which now sits at 15.5%. Across the league, swings over 75 mph produce a .389 wOBA compared to just .266 on slower swings. Straw may not always swing with elite bat speed, but he's been picking his moments to get a good hack in this year. Swinging harder is only part of the story. He’s made notable changes to where in the field he hits the ball. On a recent episode of Sportsnet's At The Letters, Arden Zwelling mentioned (minute 37) he spoke to Straw after Saturday’s game against the Twins, and Straw explained, “For like six years there, I just kept flying to right, and I decided I didn't want to do that anymore.” So far in 2026, the adjustment is showing up. Straw’s pull rate is the highest of his career, and with it has come a significant jump in production. As you can see, the Pull% is the highest it's been in his career, and the wOBA is elevated as a result. It’s the highest he's had since his nine-AB debut season in 2018. Damage typically doesn’t come from hard groundballs; it comes from balls hit in the air to the pull side. 32% of Straw's batted balls have been this batted ball type, a mark that not only leads the Blue Jays but also puts him in the top 15 in all of baseball. For reference, 66% of home runs across baseball are the result of pulled air balls, and pulled air balls result in a .733 wOBA vs. .353 on those that aren’t pulled in the air. What makes these changes even more impressive is that Straw hasn’t sacrificed contact to make them. His overall contact rate (90.8%) and zone contact rate (95.3%) are both career highs. At the same time, he's seeing fewer pitches in the strike zone, and he’s swinging less because of it. It's no coincidence he is the only Blue Jay with more walks than strikeouts this season. As these changes have taken effect, pitchers have responded by throwing Straw fewer strikes, a sign that the opposing teams are adjusting to the new version of Straw. More damage on contact, without giving up the ability to put the ball in play, is exactly what the Blue Jays want to see from their hitters. The obvious question is whether or not this production is sustainable. Some regression is likely over time, and while that still may be the case, the higher rate of swings and pulled contact in the air indicates a real change in approach. Even if the numbers do take a step back, the process behind them suggests this isn’t just a hot streak. The Blue Jays need more than just a Myles Straw breakout to fix their offense, but his emergence has been one of the few bright spots early in the season. By reshaping his swing, hitting the ball harder and consistently lifting it to his pull side, Straw has found a way to create the kind of damage he’s never done before. If the approach holds, this could be the start of a legitimate offensive breakout, not just a hot start, and that is something the Blue Jays desperately need. View full article

The Toronto Blue Jays' farm system has produced some impact bats in recent years. Players like Addison Barger and Davis Schneider played key roles during the club's 2025 World Series run, while homegrown stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk remain central to the current core. At the minor league level, however, the overall picture hasn't been as strong. As a system, the Blue Jays rank near the bottom in strikeout rate, on-base percentage, and wOBA while having the lowest exit velocity in affiliated baseball (where Statcast data is available). Some of that can be attributed to the recent success of the big league team and having fewer early-round draft picks, but it doesn’t fully explain the lack of impact production across the system. Even so, there are still reasons for optimism. Here, we will highlight the hitters who have stood out and forced their way onto the radar early in the season. Honourable Mentions Tucker Toman, 2B/3B (A+): 18 G, .311/.456/.492, 2 HR, 19.0 BB%, 27.8 K%, 170 wRC+ It's good to see some success from Toman, who struggled early in his minor league career. He’s abandoned switch-hitting and is now exclusively batting left-handed, and it's a change that is paying off. The underlying profile still raises some questions: a 65% groundball rate and a .447 BABIP suggest regression is likely. Still, the improved plate discipline and emerging power are real positives for Toman and bode well for him going forward. Josh Kasevich, SS (AAA): 26 G, .283/.365/.424, 1 HR, 10.6 BB%, 11.5 K%, 115 wRC+ Kasevich was one of the biggest standouts in spring training, and he’s carried that into the season with steady production. He leads all Blue Jays minor leaguers in doubles (8), owns a system-best 5.2% swinging-strike rate, and has even shown more aggressiveness on the bases after failing to successfully steal a base in 2025. With his profile, he’s firmly on the shortlist to make his MLB debut later this season. Peyton Williams, 1B (A/A+): 19 G, .339/.476/.508, 1 HR, 20.7 BB%, 14.6 K %, 172 wRC+ Williams has bounced back nicely after a disappointing 2025 season. The Blue Jays sent him back to Dunedin to start the year to help him reset and refine his approach, and so far, the results have been encouraging. He’s already moved back up to Vancouver, and he's showing a much more refined approach, walking more than he’s striking out while dramatically improving his contact ability (7.8% SwStr%, down from 15.6%). If that contact gains hold, the power he already possesses could allow him to get back on track and move quickly through the farm system. Top 3 #3 - Blaine Bullard, OF (A): 20 GP, .234/.322/.455 4 HR, 14 SB, 9.9 BB%, 36.3 K%, 109 wRC+ No first-year player has made more of an impact in the system than Bullard. The Blue Jays look sharp for having given the 12th-round pick an over-slot bonus in the 2025 draft, and he’s off and running. Literally. The speed is a true weapon, as he’s already accumulated a system-high 14 stolen bases through just 20 games played. Pair that with him hitting four home runs, and the power/speed combination immediately stands out. Bullard ranked 14th on Jays Centre's top prospects list coming into 2026, and if he can keep up this pace, he’s going to be much higher on our list by season's end. The strikeout rate (36.3%) is the clear concern, and it's what keeps him at number three in this piece, but there is no doubt that Bullard has been one of the most dynamic players in the system this month. #2 - Carter Cunningham, 1B/OF (A+): 23 GP, .299/.431/.609, 6 HR, 2 SB. 13.8 BB%, 25.7 K%, 185 wRC+ At 25 years old and in High A, it's time for Cunningham to dominate, and so far, he has. The 2024 10th-round pick has been on a tear to begin the 2026 season. He’s tapped into his power in a meaningful way. His 49% fly ball rate is a career high, and paired with a 53% pull rate, it is clear he’s made an intentional swing change, which is how hitters turn their raw power into game power. The results speak for themselves: his 23 RBI lead all Blue Jays minor leaguers. Just as importantly, he’s improved his contact skills, cutting his swinging-strike rate and increasing his contact rate, without sacrificing impact. He’s turned himself into a dynamic hitter, and the next step will be proving it against upper-level pitching, which will come quickly if this power binge continues. #1 - Sean Keys, 1B/3B (AA): 21 GP, .321/.436/.705, 9 HR, 1 SB, 11.7 BB%, 25.5 K%, 184 wRC+ In a system that has struggled to generate offensive impact, Keys has been the exception. After setting the Vancouver Canadians home run record in 2025, Keys picked up right where he left off, this time in Double A. His nine home runs not only lead the Blue Jays system, but all of Double A, and they're coming with authority. At 6-foot-1, 232 lbs, Keys has the build of an elite power hitter. He won’t maintain the 50+ home run pace he’s on, but it isn't a fluke stretch. The power is real, and it's showing up consistently, even in cold weather conditions in the Northeast. Keys is quickly turning himself into one of the most impactful power bats in the system. No hitter in the system has matched his combination of power, production, and impact, making him the clear choice at the top spot. What Keys is doing is impossible to ignore. For more on the slugging infielder, Jays Centre's Cory Sparks recently made a great video, which you can watch here. All stats up-to-date through games on April 30. View full article

Baseball can change, and baseball can change fast. Just take a look at Yariel Rodríguez. In 2024, he was a key piece in the starting rotation, making 21 starts and pitching to a respectable 4.47 ERA. In 2025, he joined the bullpen and was dynamite in the first half, with a 2.47 ERA and a 25.6% K rate. He quickly became a key high-leverage reliever for the team. But all that seems like a distant memory. Yariel struggled in the second half. His velocity dropped, the strikeouts followed, and everything else (walks, WHIP, and ERA) went in the wrong direction. With that, the man who was relied on heavily in the first half of the season was left off the playoff roster and has since found himself much further down on the depth chart. In what was a surprising move this offseason, the Blue Jays outrighted him off the 40-man roster entirely, and he went unclaimed on waivers. Rodríguez was then at a turning point in his career. He could accept that this was just the new normal and ride buses in the minor leagues for the remaining two years of his four-year deal, or he could get back to work and try to figure out how to get back to Toronto and help the big league team. So far in the minors, it looks like he chose the latter. Through Buffalo’s first 21 games of the season, Rodríguez has appeared in six of them (prior to games on April 21), throwing 8.2 IP, and early returns look promising. He has a respectable 3.12 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and he’s holding opposing hitters to a .133 batting average against. Under the hood, the numbers look even better. He’s sporting a 21.7% swinging-strike rate, which has led to an exceptional 47.2% K rate. That’ll play. Missing bats was never really the issue for Rodríguez; his problems had been a decline in velocity and in command. At first look, the walks are still elevated (13.9% BB rate), but he has been able to find the strike zone more consistently, currently sitting at 59% (95 of his 161 pitches have been strikes), which is up from the 56.5% he was at in the second half of 2025. As for his velocity? It's still down from the 96.1 mph he averaged in the first half of 2025, but in the second half, he sat around 95 mph, and that's right where he sits currently. 95 mph is still playable in the big leagues. In a small sample, the results have been promising, but it's how he’s getting the results that really stands out. He’s completely changed his pitch mix, throwing his fastball significantly less and leaning more heavily on his splitter. Here’s the pitch mix in 2025: And in 2026: So far, the splitter has led to exceptional results. Rodríguez has thrown 50 splitters this year. Here is how they have performed: Whiffs - 20 (40% of all splitters) Balls - 21 (42%) Fouled off - 3 (6%) Called Strikes - 2 (4%) Balls in play - 3 (6%) Hits allowed - 1 (2%) This has led to an outstanding 74.1% whiff rate (whiffs divided by total swings). There is certainly some small sample noise contributing to this, but you don't achieve high numbers like this by accident. For context, Trey Yesavage's splitter had a 57.1% whiff rate, and Brendon Little’s knuckle curve was at 55.6% in 2025. Major league hitters won't swing and miss as often as Triple-A bats, but still, Yariel Rodríguez has unlocked something with this wipeout pitch. So, should the Blue Jays call him up? Well, the simple answer is no. The small-sample change is encouraging, and with his revamped pitch mix, there is a legitimate case that he’s trending back to being a major league-calibre arm. But baseball is a game of adjustments; word of Yariel’s splitter will get around the league, and other lineups will adjust. This is similar to what happened to Little and his knuckle curve: He was striking out the world with that pitch, but other teams have learned to take it, and as a result, Little has been far less effective since. How Rodríguez reacts to these inevitable adjustments will give the Blue Jays a better sense of whether he’s ready to rejoin the team. There is also the issue of the players in front of him. No one has warranted losing their job. For as injury-prone as the Blue Jays have been as a whole, the bullpen has largely remained intact. Jeff Hoffman has had his struggles, but even if he’s removed from the closer role, he’ll still be on the roster. Louis Varland, Braydon Fisher, and Tyler Rogers have been terrific. And the Blue Jays risk losing Tommy Nance (out of options) or Spencer Miles (Rule 5 pick) if they decide to demote them from the roster. There simply isn’t a spot for Rodríguez on the roster right now. There’s also the issue that he is no longer on the 40-man. Chase Lee is likely the first name called up if there is a need for a right-handed pitcher in the bullpen, and the impending returns of Yesavage, José Berríos, and Yimi García are likely going to have an effect on the bullpen as well. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Yariel's return to the big leagues is not likely anytime soon. For now, Yariel Rodríguez can’t focus on that. He just needs to focus on what he can control, and right now, that's what he’s been doing on the pitcher's mound. If the splitter continues to miss bats at an elite level, then the Blue Jays will not be able to ignore him, and the conversation quickly becomes not if he’ll rejoin the big league team, but when. View full article

“It feels like we just keep getting punched in the mouth.” It wasn’t the first time Eric Lauer spoke about taking a punch to the mouth. But this time, instead of joking about a fat lip courtesy of Max Scherzer, he was talking about something far more damaging: the injury bug that has battered the Blue Jays early in the 2026 season. “It’s one of those things where we want it to just stop at some point. But we’ve just got to keep going through it, hoping the next guy steps up. Keep grinding.” Lauer has a point, and you can tell that the injury bug has gotten to the Blue Jays. Just this week, George Springer fouled a ball on his left toe, causing a fracture. After getting X-rays done, the Blue Jays decided to put him on the 10-day IL, joining several of his teammates that are currently hurt, only 15 games into the young season (as of April 14). Springer joins a list of offensive players on the sidelines that includes Addison Barger, who is on the 10-day IL with a sprained ankle, Alejandro Kirk who is out with a fractured thumb, and, dating back to the spring, the Blue Jays can factor in Anthony Santander, who had shoulder surgery in February and will likely not be back until September, if he returns at all. On paper, the Blue Jays are missing four of their projected top six hitters, and although they have depth on the roster, it's a situation no team wants. On the pitching side, things aren’t much better. Shane Bieber, Bowden Francis, José Berríos, and Trey Yesavage were all expected to be key pieces in the starting rotation. Yimi García was set to be a flamethrower out of the bullpen, but none of them left spring training healthy. Cody Ponce, who was expected to be a key part of the rotation after signing a three-year, $30 million contract this winter, lasted only 2.1 innings before he tore his ACL and is expected to miss most, if not all, of the 2026 season. There’s no way to sugarcoat it; the injuries have been brutal, and they're a big reason why the Blue Jays are below .500 early in the season. But just how bad have things been? The Blue Jays actually don’t have the highest number of players on the injured list (the Diamondbacks lead the way with 13), but in terms of the expected value of their hurt players, no team in baseball has been hit harder than the Toronto Blue Jays. Graphic per the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger Coming into the season, Baseball Prospectus projected the Blue Jays to win about 88 games and produce approximately 41.4 WARP (wins above replacement player). Through just 15 games, the Blue Jays have already lost a meaningful chunk of their projected production to injuries. If that pace holds (nearly 1.0 WARP lost every 15 games), it would equate to about 10 fewer wins than expected coming into the season, which would be the difference between making the playoffs and missing them entirely. Yesavage is reportedly nearing his return, while Springer isn't expected to be out for long. Still, Bieber, Ponce, Santander, García, and Berríos are set to miss significant time, and it's almost certain more players will get hurt between now and the end of the season. It hasn’t been all injuries; the Blue Jays haven't necessarily played their best on the field, either. But PECOTA now projects Toronto to end up with just 83.5 wins overall, a pretty sizeable drop this early on in the season. That's still the fifth-highest win projection in the American League. The concern is whether it keeps dropping. Every season, one team gets decimated by injuries. In 2025, it was the Houston Astros, who lost 12.44 WARP and narrowly missed the playoffs on the final day of the season. In 2024, the Atlanta Braves lost even more value (13.11 WARP), and they still made it in. The Blue Jays now find themselves in this exact situation, and there is no single blueprint for how a season like this plays out: Year Team WARP Lost Playoff Result 2025 Houston Astros 12.44 Missed Playoffs 2024 Atlanta Braves 13.11 Made Playoffs 2023 New York Yankees 13.42 Missed Playoffs 2022 Minnesota Twins 9.601 Missed Playoffs 2021 New York Mets 14.43 Missed Playoffs 2020 Houston Astros 6.305 Made Playoffs* 2019 New York Yankees 17.98 Made Playoffs 2018 Cleveland Guardians 8.752 Made Playoffs There’s no clear cutoff; teams in the past have both survived and collapsed under similar injury loads. The good news? Injury-plagued teams can still make the postseason. The 2018 Guardians, 2019 Yankees, and 2024 Braves all managed to do it. But they had something the 2026 Blue Jays don’t: they were coming off 100+ win seasons. Their baseline was so high that even a significant drop still left them in contention. The Blue Jays don’t have as much luxury. Injuries alone don't determine a team's fate, but they do expose it. Teams with strong foundations and a high floor can survive them, but teams without those assets don’t have the same margin for error. The key for this team is just to try to do whatever they can to stay afloat until reinforcements arrive. Being three games below .500 with a -25 run differential, one of the worst in baseball early on, is what it is. But no one in the American League is running away from the pack. One good week, and the Blue Jays can be right back on top again. The Blue Jays are doing everything they can to make that happen. Just this past week, the team signed Patrick Corbin to reinforce the starting rotation. They’ve also made trades with the Giants and White Sox for Tyler Fitzgerald and Lenyn Sosa, respectively They’ve recalled Brandon Valenzuela, who has shown flashes of promise so far, and called up Eloy Jiménez, who had a two-hit game in his season debut. If the Blue Jays can get some impact from elsewhere on the roster and start putting some wins together, it may be the difference between this team fighting for a spot in October and being on the outside looking in. Whether they can do it won't just depend on getting healthy; it'll depend on whether or not the Blue Jays were good enough to weather this in the first place. For Eric Lauer and the rest of the Blue Jays, it's their turn to do the punching. They will keep grinding, they will keep going until the next man steps up, and if that does happen, then they get to do the sweetest punch of all, and that's punching their ticket into the postseason. View full article

Just some more "fun" RISP stats to share: - Blue Jays tOPS+ with RISP is 87, 3rd worst in baseball. - zero HR with RISP - 24 RBI with RISP 29th in baseball despite being 7th in ABs - .241 xWOBA with RISP 29th in baseball - 86.1 AV EV with RISP 30th in baseball

“This is not our brand of baseball.” That was manager John Schneider’s message after the Blue Jays were shut out by the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, a loss that capped off a series sweep and dropped the Blue Jays to a 4-5 record. It marked the first time the team had been below .500 since May 28, 2025. A 4-5 start (now 4-7)* isn't disastrous, but it feels underwhelming after three series against the A’s, Rockies, and White Sox, especially with the latter two teams having lost 100-plus games in 2025. The concern isn't necessarily the results; it's how they’ve gotten there. Injuries have played a role, and the roster has changed, but the Blue Jays simply don't look like the team we’ve come to expect. In 2025, the Blue Jays relied on their team chemistry, elite defense all around the diamond, and their ability to put the bat on the ball and put pressure on opponents' defenses to succeed. It's a formula that worked well, leading the team into the Fall Classic. A large part of the success belongs to hitting coach David Popkins and his staff. They helped spark a resurgence from George Springer, breakout performances from Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho, and meaningful offensive contributions from the back half of their roster. They also had the Blue Jays swinging harder in the second half. A report from Eno Sarris of The Athletic noted that every Blue Jay was swinging harder in the second half of the season (aside from Andrés Giménez) and that number carried over into the postseason. Elite contact ability, combined with the intent to swing hard at hittable pitches, drove the Blue Jays’ success in 2025. Fast forward to 2026, and that identity is starting to slip. Their contact rate is stable, but take a look at how their fast-swing rate compares between the second half of 2025 and where we are in 2026: Fast-Swing Rate 2025: 29.1% 2026: 25.8% The situation only gets worse when you look at what pitches they're swinging the bat at. As a team, the Blue Jays have been swinging too much at pitches out of the zone. Their out-of-zone swing rate (per SIS) has climbed from 33.2% in the second half of 2025 to 36.5% so far in 2026. It doesn't matter how hard you swing when you're swinging at pitchers' pitches. Every Blue Jay that has had extended playing time over the past three seasons has seen their chase rate rise in 2026. Regular small-sample caveats apply, but it's not an encouraging sign, especially when it's happening across the board. Defensively, this team should be better than it was in 2025. Gone is Bo Bichette, who, according to Baseball Savant, ranked in the 4th percentile in fielding run value last season. He’s been replaced by Giménez at shortstop, who ranked in the 86th percentile in fielding run value in 2025. Ernie Clement has taken over at second, and Varsho remains in center field. The Blue Jays have won the team Gold Glove award in two of the past three seasons, and the good news is, they can do it again! Statcast's outs above average and fielding run value both have the Blue Jays ranked among the top five in the league early on. The issue is that the team is still making its fair share of errors. Fielding percentage is a flawed stat in many ways because not all errors are created equal, yet it's still worth noting that the Blue Jays have posted a .978 fielding percentage, ranking 23rd in baseball. Take Tyler Heineman, for example. He's stepped in as the Blue Jays' catcher after Alejandro Kirk left a game with a thumb injury, and made a bad throw that helped the White Sox push across a run and hand the Blue Jays another loss. The very next day, it was more of the same; the Blue Jays were down a run late, and another bad throw allowed the White Sox to add some insurance runs. The Jays couldn't catch up. Speaking of catcher defense, the Blue Jays have had their issues throwing out baserunners. In 2025, they allowed 110 stolen bases, 16th-most in baseball, right in the middle of the pack. So far in 2026, Kirk has allowed 10 baserunners to steal, while Heineman has allowed three, and Valenzuela one. Those 14 stolen bases against are the second-highest in baseball so far. Errors will happen, and just because they've happened early doesn’t mean they’ll continue. Still, that's not how the Blue Jays were built to play, and in the early part of the season, it's been costing them games. Right now, they aren’t being beaten; they're beating themselves. The good news? It's April. A slow start isn't insurmountable, and one strong week can reset everything. But if the Blue Jays want to get back on track, it starts with rediscovering their identity, controlling the zone, and swinging with intent. If that returns, so will the wins, and the Blue Jays will be back to playing their brand of baseball Stats updated before games on April 7. View full article

Welcome to the big leagues, Spencer Miles. As far as major league debuts go, the Blue Jays have had some memorable ones. J.P. Arencibia hit two home runs in a four-hit performance, Davis Schneider launched one over the Green Monster during an electric opening series, and while Kazuma Okamoto's didn't have the same flair, he reached base twice, recorded his first major league hit, and scored the game-winning run. Miles' debut was different. He made the team out of camp as a Rule 5 pick from the Giants system, meaning the Blue Jays must keep him on the roster for the whole season or risk losing him back to San Francisco. The plan was to ease him into low-leverage situations, let him get his feet wet, and introduce him to life in the big leagues in small doses. Baseball doesn’t always care about your plan. Game two of the season, and the Blue Jays' bullpen was already under pressure. After Dylan Cease left in the sixth inning, Toronto cycled through six relievers to reach the ninth, where Alejandro Kirk hit a game-tying home run to send the game to extras. John Schneider was then looking for options for the top of the 10th. The options were slim. He could have let Louis Varland work another inning, but he was already pitching on back-to-back days. Alternatively, he could have turned to Jeff Hoffman, who had also pitched the previous day, but Schneider had indicated he wanted to avoid overusing Hoffman and would only use him in a save situation, leaving just one option remaining. Enter Spencer Miles, who had thrown just 14.2 innings of affiliated baseball since being drafted in 2022. Injuries had limited his time on the field, leaving him with very little professional experience to draw from. But at this point, the Jays were desperate. They needed a win, and Spencer Miles was the one tasked with getting the job done. The inning began with the automatic runner on second, so the pressure was immediate. His first test was no easy one: two-time All-Star and former batting champion Jeff McNeil. After a first-pitch curveball missed outside for ball one, Miles left a sinker over the plate that McNeil sent right back at him. From there, baseball instinct took over. Without hesitation, he charged forward and immediately ran at Jacob Wilson, catching him in a rundown for the first out. A tremendous display of instincts for a pitcher with so little game experience. The next batter was Max Muncy. Miles opened with a slider just off the plate, then came back with another that Kirk framed perfectly for a strike. He followed it with a 98.3 mph sinker for another called strike, and two pitches later, he finished Muncy with a front-door slider that started off the plate and caught the zone, which Muncy swung over the top of for his first big league strikeout. A four-pitch walk and a flyout to right later, and Miles was out of the inning. He had inherited the automatic runner on second base and ended the inning without allowing the runner to score. He did exactly what the team needed: he gave them a chance to win. Sure enough, the Blue Jays did just that. After a Kirk strikeout and an intentional walk to Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement delivered a line drive to left-center field, securing the win and ultimately, Miles’ first big league victory. “I blacked out a little bit. It's surreal; you dream of this as a kid,” Miles said postgame. “For them to even put me in that situation, I think it's just surreal.” John Schneider has to be encouraged by what he’s seen from the 25-year-old rookie, who has now passed his first big league test. On the whole, Miles threw 16 pitches – eight of them sliders – and generated two whiffs on just four swings. His fastball touched 98.2 mph, and his early Stuff+ numbers were impressive, including a 145 mark on his slider. Take the small sample with a grain of salt, but for a Blue Jays bullpen with early question marks, continued contributions like this could prove extremely valuable. For what it's worth, through two games (prior to the finale on Sunday), Spencer Miles was leading the pitching staff in Win Probability Added: via FanGraphs Whether this turns out to be a brief blip or the start of something bigger, Spencer Miles has already had his big league moment and, more importantly, helped the Blue Jays win a game in the process. If this outing is any indication, it may not be the last time he’s trusted in a big spot. View full article

Lets go crazy, Eric Lauer has a Marco Estrada-esque outing and gets it done

Bold predictions are always a tricky exercise. What feels bold to one person might seem completely reasonable to another. Think back to last season. Predicting a career year for George Springer after a .674 OPS would have raised some eyebrows. Predicting a team that won just 74 games to go from worst-to-first and push a World Series to Game 7? That would have sounded even more unlikely. That's the beauty of baseball: We can analyze rosters, project breakouts, and map out every potential storyline, but something unexpected is always going to happen, especially during (or after) a 162-game season. For this exercise, we’ll use a definition inspired by Ben Clemens of FanGraphs: A bold prediction is something you know might not be likely to happen, but you believe has a better chance of happening than most people think. Rather than keeping all the fun to myself, I asked the Jays Centre staff to share their own bold predictions for the 2026 season. The results were a great mix, including some Blue Jays taking home end-of-season hardware, dominant pitching performances, and prospect breakouts. Let's dive in. Michael Coyle: Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease both throw over 200 IP and strike out over 200 batters. We’ll start with a big one. The 200-inning threshold has decreased dramatically over the past few seasons, with just three pitchers reaching it in 2025. Chris Bassitt was the most recent Blue Jay to hit that number, doing so in 2023, and the last time the team had two pitchers do it in the same season was in 2014, when R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle each eclipsed that mark. Both Gausman and Cease have come close to these numbers in the past, but neither has quite gotten there. In order for this to come true, both pitchers will need to be healthy all season and maintain at least one strikeout per inning; the latter is something that Gausman hasn’t quite done the past two seasons. It's bold for a reason, but the Blue Jays' pitching staff would be in great shape if this one comes true. Matthew Creally: Brendon Little will have a sub-2.50 ERA. Little faded down the stretch last season to the point where he was barely used in the World Series; he was likely overworked and, frankly, had some of the worst command/control in the league. But turning the page to 2026, he’s shown a new four-seamer in camp (touching as high as 98.1 mph), and the added depth in the bullpen will take some pressure off him. It's a bet on the stuff, which is probably a bit underrated. If he can make an improvement to his command, then he can shake off the rough postseason and be a true anchor out of the bullpen. Mike LeSage: Kevin Gausman will finish second in Cy Young voting. Most predictions would have a player ultimately winning the Cy Young Award, but predicting a second-place finish feels bolder in a way. Gausman has come close before. Back in 2023, he led the AL in strikeouts and finished third in the Cy Young race, behind Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray. Since then, the strikeout numbers have dipped slightly, but he’s remained highly effective. For this to happen, Gausman will need to rediscover that strikeout form while continuing his run of durability as he enters his age-35 season. He’ll also need a bit of luck, with either Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, or any of the other elite AL arms taking a step back. If there’s anyone who can thread that needle, Kevin Gausman is as good a pick as any. Bryan Jaeger: Daulton Varsho finishes top three in AL MVP voting. Varsho has changed his approach at the plate this spring, and it's paying off tremendously. He is letting the ball travel deeper and hitting the ball to all parts of the field. Letting the pitch travel more has also helped his plate vision. He's reduced his strikeouts from 28.4% last season to 7.4% this spring. Take spring training stats with a grain of salt, but it looks like he’s been making some cognitive changes with his approach. The center fielder has an astounding 1.246 OPS and .440 ISO over 54 plate appearances with five home runs, 12 runs, and 14 knocked in. He's doing all this while maintaining his ability to hit the ball hard. Varsho's 54.3 hard-hit% would be a career-high. Pair all this with his elite center field defence and smart baserunning, and you don’t have to squint too hard to see it all come together. The key to making this prediction come true is if he can stay healthy, which is a massive ask, but there is a real path to this becoming a reality. Simon Li: Austin Cates jumps into the top 15 in the Blue Jays system. Currently, Cates isn't ranked among Jays Centre's top 20 prospects, and he was outside of FanGraphs' top 40 Blue Jays prospects as well, but there is lots to like about the 22-year-old right-hander. If you look at the pitch characteristics, he gets elite ride on the fastball (21+ inches of induced vertical break) and pairs it with a devastating splitter, a pitch the Blue Jays have used effectively over the past few seasons. He’ll still need to sharpen up the breaking ball, but if he can make progress with that offering, then he’s got a legitimate three-pitch mix. Cates got the start in the Jay's Spring Breakout game this year and sat at 93 mph after showing increased velocity from the year prior. He’s a name to watch on the prospect side going forward. Sam Charles: The Blue Jays will not win more than 80 games. Not every bold prediction has to be optimistic. Sometimes, saying the unpopular answer may be the right one, all things considered. You don’t have to look too hard to see how this could be possible. The Blue Jays' lineup isn't certain to just mash. Kazuma Okamoto could struggle in his first year against MLB pitching, Alejandro Kirk and George Springer could revert to their 2023/2024 stat lines, and the surprise performances from Nathan Lukes, Tyler Heineman, and Myles Straw could easily disappear. As always, injuries would be a factor here, too. The pitching staff has lots of question marks as well. Three potential starters are already on the injured list. Dylan Cease has all the tools in the world but has had ERAs north of 4.50 in two of the last three seasons. It could happen again. The bullpen has several question marks, and on the whole, the Blue Jays' pitchers are getting old; only Trey Yesavage and Mason Fluharty are currently projected to be on the roster and under 25. Pair that with an AL East that got significantly better in the offseason, and one team is going to disappoint – and there is a chance it could be the Blue Jays. Edward Eng: Jeff Hoffman figures out the home run issues and becomes the shutdown closer the Blue Jays need. One of the many question marks surrounding the Blue Jays in 2026 will be Jeff Hoffman's performance. In 2025, he had stretches of dominance and stretches where he struggled with consistency. Consistency in the closer spot is paramount, and the Jays weren’t always getting that last season. The home runs were always an issue; his 15 allowed were second in baseball by a reliever, and the HR/FB ratio of 20% was his worst since he was a starting pitcher in Coors Field. If he’s able to figure out how to keep the ball in the ballpark, then there is enough dominance in the arm that he can be a lock-down closer. That is going to be important if the Jays wish to remain on top of the division. Leo Morgenstern: Two Blue Jays will make their first all star game this summer. Dylan Cease (somehow) has never made an All-Star Game and seems to be a likely candidate to get there this summer, but what makes this bold is finding another one. Daulton Varsho is a prime candidate to get to the Midsummer Classic for the first time, but there is a path where Kazuma Okamoto, Addison Barger, Trey Yesavage, Cody Ponce, or Louis Varland end up there as well. Last season, the Blue Jays sent Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk to the All-Star Game, and with John Schneider set to manage the AL team in Philadelphia this year, having some extra Blue Jays on the roster is never a bad thing. Owen Hill: José Berríos makes more starts than Max Scherzer. This is a prediction about two things: Berríos' durability and Scherzer showing his age. This prediction is certainly bold, as right now, Berríos isn't throwing and is dealing with elbow inflammation that will have him start the season on the IL. For his career, Berríos has been a model of consistency, even after an uneven 2025 season; his ability to log innings has been a strength. Scherzer, on the other hand, has looked sharp in camp and is currently locked into the starting rotation, but there are always going to be durability concerns that come with a pitcher in his forties. While the upside remains, predicting a full, healthy season may be optimistic. The Blue Jays are almost certain to use more than five starters over the course of the year, and the rotation in September is rarely the same as it is in March. This prediction comes down to trusting that Berríos will be available more often in the long run, even though that is not the case at the moment. Bob Ritchie: Andrés Giménez steals 25+ bases and has a wRC+ above 114. Both these numbers are something Giménez has accomplished before, but never in the same year. He reached the 25 stolen base mark in 2023 and 2024, and hit the wRC+ number in his All-Star 2022 campaign, but that feels like it's well in the rearview mirror. However, these numbers aren’t necessarily out of reach. The stolen bases may be the hardest number to reach, as no Blue Jay even reached 20 last season, but Giménez has done it before and will be locked in as the everyday starting shortstop, so he could approach this number once again. If he does reach these numbers, he’ll join a list that in 2025 would have included names like Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, and José Ramírez. Jesse Burrill: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will set the record for the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era Personally, I have been rooting for this record for a long time. The current mark was set by Oneil Cruz just last season at 122.9 mph. Vladimir Guerrero Jr has come close before, with his best being 120.4 mph, also recorded last year. Here’s why it could happen: Guerrero is entering his age-27 season, which is historically right in the heart of a player's prime. Pair that with the fact that several Blue Jays made noticeable improvements in bat speed during the second half of last season, and you’ve got a recipe for some serious ferocious exit velocities. If everything clicks, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Guerrero claim the top spot. Now, will any of these predictions actually come true? Probably not, but baseball has never been predictable. Over 162 games, the unexpected is inevitable, but that’s what makes it fun, and all that fun starts tonight at Rogers Centre. View full article