Realistic Mock Trades if the Blue Jays Decide To Sell

The writing is on the wall. Thanks to an 8-17 record in their past 25 games, the chances of the Toronto Blue Jays becoming sellers at the trade deadline seem likelier by the second, a stark contrast to a year ago at this time when they led the AL East by three games.

The Jays' worst stretch of the season has coincided perfectly with a historic win streak by the Boston Red Sox, as well as a recent surge from the Baltimore Orioles, who finally snapped Boston's streak at 15 games. This has led to Toronto's playoff odds dropping nearly 50% over the past month, according to FanGraphs. The American League landscape remains uninspiring, but even despite that, the Blue Jays are 6.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot. 

It's time to seriously consider punting on 2026. Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho are the headliners on expiring contracts. Unfortunately, Gausman, Springer, and Varsho have all been scuffling lately, but it's important to remember that big league front offices don't make trades for what players have done. It's what they're projected to do in the future, especially relative to their salary, that matters.

Expected production relative to cost is where surplus value comes from, a popular term amongst executives when it comes to the ultimate goal of every trade. Last year, inspired by this video from Lance Brozdowski, I built a rather skeletal MLB trade engine in Google Sheets that revolves around that very concept. It uses the latest guiding principles around the dollar value of prospects, the dollar value of WAR, projecting salary for players before they hit free agency, and inflation. Let's plug each of our potential trade chips into the system and see how they're likely to be viewed around the industry.

All figures entering July 22, 2026.

Kevin Gausman

Ideal return: 1 A-minus prospect & a deep sleeper, or 2 mid-range prospects

I'm not emotionally prepared to see Gausman pitch in another uniform, least of all for the one team that got in the way of his quest to win a ring for the city that he took a discount to come to. As painful as it is, the Dodgers, thanks to their boatload of injuries on the pitching side, their surplus of outfield prospects, and their willingness to spend, are a good fit. There are other playoff-bound teams that need Gausman more, but Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell remain on the IL, Shohei Ohtani isn't pitching for the time being, and Justin Wrobleski is probably best suited to be a reliever come playoff time.

Any time a selling team can poach a prospect of Charles Davalan's caliber at the deadline, they'd be happy to do it. The lefty-hitting Canadian isn't a top-100 prospect, but he has 14 homers and 15 steals, along with a 13% walk rate and an 11% strikeout rate, in High A this year. Scouts seem to be the most fond of his hit and speed tools. Dylan Tate is a wild card who has barely started his affiliate career since getting drafted in the 11th round last year. FanGraphs gives him a 60-grade fastball.

It's crucial to remember that even the slightest conflicting opinions of a prospect's caliber can swing the outcome of a trade. For example, Davalan is a 55-grade prospect according to Baseball America, but FanGraphs, as is often the case, is a little more conservative with a 45 FV valuation. If the Dodgers' own internal model is closer to BA's grade, the chances of them accepting this trade probably go down, but their deep farm system might force them to overpay in a seller's market.

Mitch Bannon of The Athletic recently mocked Gausman to the Cubs for two prospects a tier below Davalan. For the purposes of this exercise, there's no point in getting caught up in particular teams and prospects. If a starting pitcher with Gausman's salary who is projected to put up a little more than 1.0 WAR for the remainder of the season is going to fetch multiple prospects, the return could go one of two ways: a couple of guys in that 40-40+ FV tier, or one closer to 45 FV along with a lottery ticket.

Shane Bieber

Ideal return: 1 mid-range prospect, more if packaged

Bieber exercised his player option to stay in Toronto, but unfortunately, while his rest-of-season projections are better than what the Jays have gotten from him since his return, they aren't enough to offset the salary he is still owed. That's why it might make sense to include him in a package to maximize the return. The $/WAR method is probably underrating him a little bit, but nonetheless, in this instance, I have him going to Atlanta alongside the currently-injured Jesús Sánchez, who has one more year of control but is a tad redundant of a presence on the Jays' roster.

Old friend Alex Anthopoulos recently professed his desire to upgrade the pitching staff for his Braves, so why not see if he'll follow through? A prospect of Owen Murphy's stature might not be attainable with Bieber alone, but Sánchez could be useful for a team with a shallow corner outfield group thanks to Ronald Acuna Jr.'s continued injury troubles and no offense whatsoever on their bench. Murphy, who made his big league debut a few weeks ago, has a flat, high-carry fastball and a 27% K rate at Triple A this year. The Blue Jays could use another young starter who's ready to contribute at the highest level, with Johnny King and Nolan Perry not quite yet ready to join Dylan Cease and Trey Yesavage in the prospective 2027 rotation. Jorge Mateo would simply be a warm body that the Jays could plug in at a variety of positions until his term is up at the end of the year.

George Springer

Ideal return: 1 high-risk sleeper

It's difficult to imagine the Blue Jays truly acing a George Springer trade because he's only been a high-end contributor once over the past three years, and that was last season when he was anchoring the lineup. There won't be a long line of suitors for a 36-year-old rental DH who's still owed more than $8M, but the Padres have seemingly been in win-now mode forever, and their revolving door of designated hitters has hit for an 84 wRC+ this season.

In terms of how the Jays' options stack up in this scenario, San Diego's prospect pool takes a clear backseat to Atlanta's, and it isn't really in the same universe as the Dodgers', so they'll have to take a shot in the dark with an unheralded prospect they believe has some untapped potential. I'd be curious to see what they could do with the 22-year-old Braedon Karpathios. His 30% strikeout rate and middling slash line in Double A leave a bit to be desired, but he's someone who can impact the ball with a good blend of in-zone aggressiveness and discipline. Recently, Toronto's MiLB hitting personnel have been successful in getting some of their prospects to make more contact, so he could be a project worth taking on. Karpathios is unranked in FanGraphs' system, but Baseball America has him as a high-risk 45 FV guy, hence the compromise of his 40 FV grade here.

Daulton Varsho

Ideal return: 1 B-tier prospect & 1 sleeper

The timing of Varsho's horrendous July has not been ideal, but he would still be an offensive upgrade for the Guardians in center field. Cleveland doesn't usually add rentals at the deadline, but they've connected with the Blue Jays on the trade front many times before, and Varsho gives them a rare opportunity to add a bat without much financial strain. In return, I like Jace LaViolette for the Jays, who has tremendous raw power and the potential to stick in center field but also comes with major strikeout concerns. The industry is divided on him: FanGraphs has him at 45 FV, while Baseball America has him at 55 but with a high-risk grade, which brings his adjusted grade down to 40. His ceiling is high, and his floor is very low.

Will Dion is currently in the Guardians' bullpen, but I don't imagine he'll be there for long, as fellow lefty Tim Herrin is soon to return from a rehab stint. Dion has an uninspiring 5.65 ERA through 14.1 MLB innings, but he has a 27% strikeout rate to go with a 4.5% walk rate and a 110 Stuff+ on the four-seamer that he has thrown 42% of the time. No matter what happens in the final two months of the season, Mason Fluharty deserves another lefty who can pick up the slack in Toronto's bullpen, and Dion could stick long-term.

As difficult as Varsho's season has been, his rest-of-season projection coupled with a reasonable salary will likely result in a return not too far from what Gausman would hypothetically bring back if traded.

Final Thoughts

Conversations like the ones in this piece were not supposed to be in the cards this year for anyone in the Blue Jays organization, but the shocking underperformance of their core position players has forced them to consider a reality without the likes of Kevin Gausman, who has repeatedly stated a desire to finish his career in Toronto, and Shane Bieber, who they acquired less than a year ago as they geared up for the pennant race. 

Unlike their previous last-place finish in 2024, there aren't many obvious fundamental issues with the way the roster is built. In fact, the pitching staff was clearly built to win now. Aside from former assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense, who was instrumental in the game-planning process that the Jays got so much credit for last season, and Don Mattingly, who made up for a disappointing tenure as hitting coach by becoming a trusted voice in the clubhouse, the coaching staff is essentially identical to 2025. If this is indeed the end of the road for this current iteration of the Toronto Blue Jays, it's almost entirely thanks to the underperformances from the guys who made last year so special (or absences, in the case of Addison Barger).

The Jays could get creative at this deadline by shipping away players who won't be hitting the open market this winter, such as relievers Jeff Hoffman and Tyler Rogers. I personally wouldn't trade these next two names if a 2027 bounce-back is the goal, but based solely on the fact that their value may never be higher, it's also worth listening to offers for Louis Varland and Ernie Clement should they surface. The market and their own trade chips are different than two years ago, but this is a team that sold at the deadline in 2024 and was better off for it, with some of the cascading effects from those trades still paying dividends today. It feels bleak right now, but there's opportunity in selling. Let's hope they do it right.