General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[Masterbather]

43 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Would have been cool to see Jacob Misiorowski pitch in this series. 

You know what's even cooler? Watching him pitch against anyone else.

[Omar]

1 hour ago, Masterbather said:

Well that's most people's top three in the rotation if the playoffs began today, so this will be a hell of a test for those three against the best team in baseball.

You mean it will be a test for Milwaukee against the best team in baseball.

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Masterbather said:

Well that's most people's top three in the rotation if the playoffs began today, so this will be a hell of a test for those three against the best team in baseball.

Feels like they adjusted the rotation with the 6 guys to make these matches happen for this series

 

[Omar]

11 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Feels like they adjusted the rotation with the 6 guys to make these matches happen for this series

 

Makes no sense to me rolling with six starters.  At this pace for the rotation, Bieber will get like 3 starts in the regular season.  I would think they would want to maximize his number of starts not minimize them. Especially if he is a rental.

[John_Havok]

9 minutes ago, Omar said:

Makes no sense to me rolling with six starters.  At this pace for the rotation, Bieber will get like 3 starts in the regular season.  I would think they would want to maximize his number of starts not minimize them. Especially if he is a rental.

I generally don't like either especially at this point of the season where everyone is so used to being on 4 days rest that those extra 1 or 2 rest days can throw off a rhythm. So much about baseball is built around routine and timing. 

[Orgfiller]

Andres Gimenez quietly has a .332 xwOBA, 49th percentile which is not too shabby for a player who otherwise produces a lot of value from his glove and baserunning. With some better batted ball luck we'd probably be looking at a 2+ win player in less than half a season's worth of games. Projections still buy him as being a roughly average to just below average hitter. Even at his worst offensive level he's a near 3 win player, with projections seeing him closer to a 3.5-4 WAR true talent.

[Pendleton]

55 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Andres Gimenez quietly has a .332 xwOBA, 49th percentile which is not too shabby for a player who otherwise produces a lot of value from his glove and baserunning. With some better batted ball luck we'd probably be looking at a 2+ win player in less than half a season's worth of games. Projections still buy him as being a roughly average to just below average hitter. Even at his worst offensive level he's a near 3 win player, with projections seeing him closer to a 3.5-4 WAR true talent.

 

He's a damn good ball player. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

1 hour ago, Orgfiller said:

Andres Gimenez quietly has a .332 xwOBA, 49th percentile which is not too shabby for a player who otherwise produces a lot of value from his glove and baserunning. With some better batted ball luck we'd probably be looking at a 2+ win player in less than half a season's worth of games. Projections still buy him as being a roughly average to just below average hitter. Even at his worst offensive level he's a near 3 win player, with projections seeing him closer to a 3.5-4 WAR true talent.

Hopefully the Jays can land an ace this off season to anchor the weakest part of the team. The line up is honestly pretty damn stacked on paper with a crap ton of potential 3-4 fWAR players and then several guys who could be in that 1-3 fWAR range.

 

1. Vlad (3-5?)

2. Kirk (3-4?)

3. Varsho (3-4?) if healthy

4. Giminez (3-4?) if healthy

5. Springer (2-3?)

6. Santander (2-3?) if healthy

7. Clement (2-3?)

8. Barger (2-3?)

Then players they have for depth and to fill out a bench,

Heineman 2.2 fWAR in 146 PA's never been a negative fWAR back up.

Lukes 1.6 fWAR in 349 PA's.

Straw 1.5 fWAR in 260 PA's.

Schneider 1.4 fWAR in 169 PA's.

Loperfido 0.7 fWAR in 89 PA's.

 

A ton of solid depth and just loaded with positive contributors. Not a one trick pony at all. No wonder they are such a scrappy team.

And who knows, maybe next season one of Schrek, Kasevich or Pinango come up and pull a Barger, or maybe the Jays bring back Bo or land a stud like Tucker.

[Big_Walleye]

38 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Hopefully the Jays can land an ace this off season to anchor the weakest part of the team. The line up is honestly pretty damn stacked on paper with a crap ton of potential 3-4 fWAR players and then several guys who could be in that 1-3 fWAR range.

 

1. Vlad (3-5?)

2. Kirk (3-4?)

3. Varsho (3-4?) if healthy

4. Giminez (3-4?) if healthy

5. Springer (2-3?)

6. Santander (2-3?) if healthy

7. Clement (2-3?)

8. Barger (2-3?)

Then players they have for depth and to fill out a bench,

Heineman 2.2 fWAR in 146 PA's never been a negative fWAR back up.

Lukes 1.6 fWAR in 349 PA's.

Straw 1.5 fWAR in 260 PA's.

Schneider 1.4 fWAR in 169 PA's.

Loperfido 0.7 fWAR in 89 PA's.

 

A ton of solid depth and just loaded with positive contributors. Not a one trick pony at all. No wonder they are such a scrappy team.

And who knows, maybe next season one of Schrek, Kasevich or Pinango come up and pull a Barger, or maybe the Jays bring back Bo or land a stud like Tucker.

They should be ok on the position player front for sure.  Signing Bo would be nice.

As far as starting pitching goes, hopefully they can sign Bieber or at least have him pick up his player option.  Bassitt will be gone and Berrios may opt out but there's plenty of young options coming in Manoah, Tiedeman, Yesavage, Bloss and Francis.

[Masterbather]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Feels like they adjusted the rotation with the 6 guys to make these matches happen for this series

 

They clearly did. It also tells you who they see as their top three right now.

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Hopefully the Jays can land an ace this off season to anchor the weakest part of the team. The line up is honestly pretty damn stacked on paper with a crap ton of potential 3-4 fWAR players and then several guys who could be in that 1-3 fWAR range.

 

1. Vlad (3-5?)

2. Kirk (3-4?)

3. Varsho (3-4?) if healthy

4. Giminez (3-4?) if healthy

5. Springer (2-3?)

6. Santander (2-3?) if healthy

7. Clement (2-3?)

8. Barger (2-3?)

Then players they have for depth and to fill out a bench,

Heineman 2.2 fWAR in 146 PA's never been a negative fWAR back up.

Lukes 1.6 fWAR in 349 PA's.

Straw 1.5 fWAR in 260 PA's.

Schneider 1.4 fWAR in 169 PA's.

Loperfido 0.7 fWAR in 89 PA's.

 

A ton of solid depth and just loaded with positive contributors. Not a one trick pony at all. No wonder they are such a scrappy team.

And who knows, maybe next season one of Schrek, Kasevich or Pinango come up and pull a Barger, or maybe the Jays bring back Bo or land a stud like Tucker.

waves of talent

[Governator]

I hope Santander turns it around when he returns, I don't want him back as a hole in the top half of the line up.

[Laika]

Just now, Governator said:

I hope Santander turns it around when he returns, I don't want him back as a hole in the top half of the line up.

Yeah this is my worry too 

[Spanky__99]

5 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Feels like they adjusted the rotation with the 6 guys to make these matches happen for this series

 

Yeah, they moved Priester back a couple days to pitch against us, and the Jays pushed Berrios back to avoid them, I'm legit pumped for this potential WS matchup, top AL team against the top NL team. A 3 game snippet at the very least.

[Spanky__99]

5 hours ago, Omar said:

Makes no sense to me rolling with six starters.  At this pace for the rotation, Bieber will get like 3 starts in the regular season.  I would think they would want to maximize his number of starts not minimize them. Especially if he is a rental.

They're not taking Bieber out of turn from what I've read from BNS and Keegan. 

[Masterbather]

3 hours ago, Governator said:

I hope Santander turns it around when he returns, I don't want him back as a hole in the top half of the line up.

I really want him back, but I do have the same concern that while we're giving him rope to get into a groove we're taking someone out of the lineup that may be more effective in the short term.

It's tough enough to find playing time for everybody. I think Davis Schneider should be an everyday player but even that's hard to accommodate right now.

I think it's a risk worth taking. Even if Santander doesn't find his groove enough to be a starter, having that bat available to pinch hit in the postseason would be nice to have. 

Edit: I don't think he would bat near the top of the lineup. Too many quality options already to fill the top five or six in the lineup. He would have to be maybe in the seven hole. Six at the highest.

[jmomcc]

4 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Hopefully the Jays can land an ace this off season to anchor the weakest part of the team. The line up is honestly pretty damn stacked on paper with a crap ton of potential 3-4 fWAR players and then several guys who could be in that 1-3 fWAR range.

 

1. Vlad (3-5?)

2. Kirk (3-4?)

3. Varsho (3-4?) if healthy

4. Giminez (3-4?) if healthy

5. Springer (2-3?)

6. Santander (2-3?) if healthy

7. Clement (2-3?)

8. Barger (2-3?)

Then players they have for depth and to fill out a bench,

Heineman 2.2 fWAR in 146 PA's never been a negative fWAR back up.

Lukes 1.6 fWAR in 349 PA's.

Straw 1.5 fWAR in 260 PA's.

Schneider 1.4 fWAR in 169 PA's.

Loperfido 0.7 fWAR in 89 PA's.

 

A ton of solid depth and just loaded with positive contributors. Not a one trick pony at all. No wonder they are such a scrappy team.

And who knows, maybe next season one of Schrek, Kasevich or Pinango come up and pull a Barger, or maybe the Jays bring back Bo or land a stud like Tucker.

They need homegrown pitching to come through. Its just not tenable to have rotations full of free agents. Its by far our biggest weakness. 

Gimenez and straw are interesting. Its kind of clear to me that defensive WAR is just not considered as valuable. Its possible that the reason for that is defense degrades quicker so elite defenders don't often reach free agency as still elite defenders? 

[Omar]

1 hour ago, Spanky__99 said:

They're not taking Bieber out of turn from what I've read from BNS and Keegan. 

Just giving Lauer a start yesterday means someone will have one less start right?  Every Lauer start will mean  a start the other five won't pitch.  Unless they plan on making Berrios the odd man out and give him less starts.  Personally I prefer Berrios over Bassitt.

[Spanky__99]

49 minutes ago, Omar said:

Just giving Lauer a start yesterday means someone will have one less start right?  Every Lauer start will mean  a start the other five won't pitch.  Unless they plan on making Berrios the odd man out and give him less starts.  Personally I prefer Berrios over Bassitt.

They should do some sort of piggy-back with those last 3 guys, imo.

[Spanky__99]

59 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

They need homegrown pitching to come through. Its just not tenable to have rotations full of free agents. Its by far our biggest weakness.  

Yesavage, Tiedemann, Bloss, King, Stanifer, Barreira, etc... is a promising outlook amongst others.

 

[R.O.]

No Manoah? Or have we given up on him?

[Masterbather]

6 minutes ago, R.O. said:

No Manoah? Or have we given up on him?

I've been trying to hold on to hope for him as much as anybody but so far I see no reason to get excited about him. 

[Barrelsandbombs]

 

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, R.O. said:

No Manoah? Or have we given up on him?

I was mentioning spects, my bad, Manoah will certainly be available.

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Masterbather said:

I've been trying to hold on to hope for him as much as anybody but so far I see no reason to get excited about him. 

Why? Hold out hope, then no reason derp, doesn't equate to me... it takes time coming back from TJS. He's always been a valuable piece a 4/5 would be great.

[mphenhef]

17 hours ago, Omar said:

Makes no sense to me rolling with six starters.  At this pace for the rotation, Bieber will get like 3 starts in the regular season.  I would think they would want to maximize his number of starts not minimize them. Especially if he is a rental.

They brought him in for the playoffs.

[mphenhef]

17 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Feels like they adjusted the rotation with the 6 guys to make these matches happen for this series

 

I think it was just as much or more to have these guys face the Yankees next week.

[sliderguy35]

12 hours ago, jmomcc said:

Gimenez and straw are interesting. Its kind of clear to me that defensive WAR is just not considered as valuable. Its possible that the reason for that is defense degrades quicker so elite defenders don't often reach free agency as still elite defenders? 

i think defensive WAR not being considered as valuable is a combination of 2 things:

1, because the margins for defensive value are so small and so dependent on opportunity, there's a lot of noise in the data year to year. myles straw went from 15 FRV in 2022 all the way down to 3 FRV in 2023 in a similar # of innings. that seems like he regressed majorly as a defender, but in reality he was just a slightly worse defender with a really unlucky season in terms of opportunity.

in 2022, he had 91 opportunities on balls with a catch probability of 90% or lower. in 2023, that number was all the way down to 67 in essentially the same number of innings. you rack up defensive value by making difficult catches/plays, if you don't get as much opportunity to make those plays, your defensive value is gonna suffer.

2. offensive value is not only reliable to measure but also tends to multiply in value the more you have of it. hitters in 2025 have a .310 wOBA and 22.7 K% with the bases empty, & a .320 wOBA and 21.2 K% with runners on base.

having a team full of elite defenders isn't going to make each of those defenders individually more valuable by themselves. having a team full of above average hitters is a force multiplier that's just going to make every individual hitter in the lineup better since they're hitting with runners on more often

[jaysblue]

12 hours ago, Barrelsandbombs said:

 

Spanky after reading this:

[jaysblue]

4 hours ago, mphenhef said:

They brought him in for the playoffs.

You need to get Bieber ready for the playoffs, and in order to do that he needs to pitch every 5th day to get into his routine and to build up innings. 

Lastly, you need him pitching in some of these important series against the Yankees and Red Sox since they're breathing down their necks.