Former Blue Jays Thread

[max silver]

You never disappoint

 

What's your issue exactly? Varsho is streaky and prone to prolonged periods of struggles, yet he's also had longer periods of above average offensive production as well.

[Spanky99]

The issue with this line of thinking was that Gurriel was never in the same tier as Teoscar as he simply didn't offer the same kind of offensive upside. It's key to remember that he was coming off of a season where he hit all of 5 home runs and that likely factored into the type of trade value he had to offer.

 

Spittin facts.

[Stangstag]

The issue with this line of thinking was that Gurriel was never in the same tier as Teoscar as he simply didn't offer the same kind of offensive upside. It's key to remember that he was coming off of a season where he hit all of 5 home runs and that likely factored into the type of trade value he had to offer.

 

Yep definitely looks like he was worth more in hindsight, but probably wasn’t worth much at the time.

 

That trade just backfired in every way for us in 2023. Going forward and as a whole, the trade is likely fine

[max silver]

Yep definitely looks like he was worth more in hindsight, but probably wasn’t worth much at the time.

 

That trade just backfired in every way for us in 2023. Going forward and as a whole, the trade is likely fine

 

I don't think Gurriel had a ton of trade value even discounting the lack of power output in 2022. Even in a good season he was basically an average MLB corner outfielder with a league average bat. He had a single year of control and made $7 million, there just wasn't much in the way of surplus trade value in Gurriel.

[jaysblue]

Are we comparing trades again? lmao... never ends.

 

Berrios bWAR and RA9 beat SWR handedly.

 

It's a baseball forum geez.

[Spanky99]

It's a baseball forum geez.

 

Thanks tips.

[L54]

Not seeing it with SWR. He’s under 8 K/9, swinging strike rate is under 10% and he doesn’t really get ground balls either. He pitches in a good park but 14 starts is not enough time to tell you anything

[jaysblue]

Yeah 15 starts isn't enough time to judge the type of arm SWR could be. Concerns are the low K/9 (7.42) so he's not going to be anything flashy. Also, seems like he's just a 5 to 6 inning pitcher and can't get pushed anymore than that. Solid ERA (3.48) and FIP (3.86) so far and a 1.2 fWAR. Likely settles in as a No. 4/5 starter who possibly could get lucky the odd season and pitch to slight higher expectations. View him just as a 2 WAR type of arm.

 

Berrios this season has only accumulated 0.3 fWAR with a 6.81 K/9 and a 5.07 xFIP. SWR has provided 4x more value so far this season. Moving forward given their ages and contract situations, would rather have SWR over Berrios. Obviously if we look at Berrios after the trade to the Jays in 2021 and in 2023, he looked like a very good and durable No. 2/3 starter and helped the Jays make Postseason runs in each of those seasons, whereas SWR wouldn't have. Right now, there are huge concerns with Berrios given his low K rate and high FIP. How long can his 3.76 ERA hide the fact on how bad he really has been this season? Gotta hope he bounces back in 2025 and returns to being a 3-4 WAR type of arm, especially with that contract he has.

[BatFlip]

Yeah 15 starts isn't enough time to judge the type of arm SWR could be. Concerns are the low K/9 (7.42) so he's not going to be anything flashy. Also, seems like he's just a 5 to 6 inning pitcher and can't get pushed anymore than that. Solid ERA (3.48) and FIP (3.86) so far and a 1.2 fWAR. Likely settles in as a No. 4/5 starter who possibly could get lucky the odd season and pitch to slight higher expectations. View him just as a 2 WAR type of arm.

 

That still has a lot of value at league minimum. I don't see his length as an issue, he's essentially a league average starter for IP per start. Will be interesting to see what he becomes.

[jaysblue]

That still has a lot of value at league minimum. I don't see his length as an issue, he's essentially a league average starter for IP per start. Will be interesting to see what he becomes.

 

Yeah exactly. Also, he's only 23-years-old so there is likely some room for growth. Will be at league minimum in 2025 and 2026 as well, and won't be a FA until 2030. Right now, SWR is a more valuable asset than Jose Berrios given his age, years of control and the decline in Berrios performance. That Berrios contract is going to sting in a couple of years unless Berrios returns to his 2023 form.

[BigCecil]

Nobody knows the SWR ceiling or floor yet. Too early - the ceiling doesn't look very high for reasons mentioned by L54.

 

But he is young, cheap and performing like a 4/5 so far in '24. Hypothetically, if we approached MINN to take Berrios contract through the 2028 season in '24, with his consistent trend of declining stuff at his cost/term, would they even give us SWR back? Whats Berrios worth now with his career pedigree and 1340 IP?

[hanton]

Berrios has slightly better Stuff+ (I thought it would have been much better but it's not)

[Pendleton]

[Spanky99]

Nobody knows the SWR ceiling or floor yet. Too early - the ceiling doesn't look very high for reasons mentioned by L54.

 

But he is young, cheap and performing like a 4/5 so far in '24. Hypothetically, if we approached MINN to take Berrios contract through the 2028 season in '24, with his consistent trend of declining stuff at his cost/term, would they even give us SWR back? Whats Berrios worth now with his career pedigree and 1340 IP?

 

Why would they? Doesn't make any sense for them to do that.

[Omar]

Raul Mondesi sentenced to 6 years in jail.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/former-blue-jays-outfielder-raul-mondesi-sentenced-to-6-years-in-jail-in-the-dominican-republic/sn-amp/

[Spanky99]

Raul Mondesi sentenced to 6 years in jail.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/former-blue-jays-outfielder-raul-mondesi-sentenced-to-6-years-in-jail-in-the-dominican-republic/sn-amp/

 

Didn't know about this, he's already served his time on house arrest, wild.

[connorp]

Raul Mondesi sentenced to 6 years in jail.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/former-blue-jays-outfielder-raul-mondesi-sentenced-to-6-years-in-jail-in-the-dominican-republic/sn-amp/

 

I was going to make a new thread last night called “The politics thread” to discuss this.

The boards hey day long gone though, so not worth the effort on the troll

[Omar]

Didn't know about this, he's already served his time on house arrest, wild.

 

Yeah, house arrest isn't a bad gig. Video games, home cooked meals and all the conjugals you can muster. I wonder if he had to pay back the money?

[jaysblue]

Why would they? Doesn't make any sense for them to do that.

 

Obviously they wouldn't lol but it shows you that Berrios currently wouldn't even be worth SWR straight up.

 

Just gotta hope this season is a blip on the radar and Berrios returns to being a 3-4 WAR pitcher for another couple of years.

[Spanky99]

Obviously they wouldn't lol but it shows you that Berrios currently wouldn't even be worth SWR straight up.

 

Just gotta hope this season is a blip on the radar and Berrios returns to being a 3-4 WAR pitcher for another couple of years.

 

Because of the money you dingleberry, fWAR for pitchers suxxxxxxx.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

fWAR is better for everything, including pitchers. rWAR /bWAR is f***ing jank

[Spanky99]

fWAR is better for everything, including pitchers. rWAR /bWAR is f***ing jank

 

RA9 is boss!

[Terminator]

fWAR is better for everything, including pitchers. rWAR /bWAR is f***ing jank

 

I tend to agree but Berrios doesn't really *seem* like a replacement level pitcher this year to me.

 

He hasn't looked amazing but he is churning through the innings and all of his numbers outside of FIP are pretty decent. K's are down but he's still got a 3-1 K/BB ratio. 4th in MLB in innings.

 

But because fWAR uses FIP it says he's barely above replacement level.

 

Has he really been THAT much worse than Gausman who has 1.5 fWAR?

[Sorrow]

I tend to agree but Berrios doesn't really *seem* like a replacement level pitcher this year to me.

 

He hasn't looked amazing but he is churning through the innings and all of his numbers outside of FIP are pretty decent. K's are down but he's still got a 3-1 K/BB ratio. 4th in MLB in innings.

 

But because fWAR uses FIP it says he's barely above replacement level.

 

Has he really been THAT much worse than Gausman who has 1.5 fWAR?

 

fWAR for pitchers is a better predictor of future success IMO than what they've done present year. Using RA9-WAR also on FanGraphs puts Berrios at 2.2 WAR and Gausman at 0.2. Kikuchi is 1.2 and Bassitt 1.9. This tends to line up with the eye test this year that Berrios has been a solid pitcher, as has Bassitt. Kikuchi was doing really well before imploding and Gausman has been ass. Yariel Rodriguez is at 0.5 and Manoah was -0.1 (2022 he had 6.6). I find RA9-WAR is really similar to bWAR which I think tells a better picture about what a pitcher has done this season.

 

My only issue with bWAR is it doesn't account for framing in their WAR calculation and when you have a skillet that we can contextualize and track statistically it seems like a glaring oversight and it makes the entire system useless for position players and since I'm lazy I'd rather just use FanGraphs.

[Spanky99]

fWAR for pitchers is a better predictor of future success IMO than what they've done present year. Using RA9-WAR also on FanGraphs puts Berrios at 2.2 WAR and Gausman at 0.2. Kikuchi is 1.2 and Bassitt 1.9. This tends to line up with the eye test this year that Berrios has been a solid pitcher, as has Bassitt. Kikuchi was doing really well before imploding and Gausman has been ass. Yariel Rodriguez is at 0.5 and Manoah was -0.1 (2022 he had 6.6). I find RA9-WAR is really similar to bWAR which I think tells a better picture about what a pitcher has done this season.

 

My only issue with bWAR is it doesn't account for framing in their WAR calculation and when you have a skillet that we can contextualize and track statistically it seems like a glaring oversight and it makes the entire system useless for position players and since I'm lazy I'd rather just use FanGraphs.

 

RA9 is bWAR... rWAR is for the hitters and yes, it's garbage.

[mikepelfrey]

mayza signed by the Yankees

[Krylian]

mayza signed by the Yankees

 

2025 Rolaids Relief Man of the Year

[glory]

The Yankees biggest strength is creating/repairing relievers, so it will be interesting to see what they can do with Mayza despite the lower velocity. Probably not much but who knows.

[G-Snarls]

Teoscar gonna be in the HR derby

[John_Havok]

The Phillies announced Friday that they’ve released veteran infielder/outfielder Whit Merrifield

 

Merrifield, who has struggled to a .199/.277/.295 batting line in 174 plate appearances this season, is still owed about $3.01MM of his salary plus that $1MM buyout. He’ll now be able to sign with any team, and a new club would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the MLB roster or injured list.