General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[jaysblue]

21 hours ago, John_Havok said:

You're putting Lukes on a full-time bench role then with a 110 wRC+ ?

Not saying that's wrong, just making sure you considered that

Look I love the job Lukes has done this season, but let's not get too attached and ahead of ourselves. He's a guy who you can pair with in a timeshare or someone who can fill-in for a short period of time when another player is on the IL. He's not a full time outfielder who you should be relying on getting 600 PA. I don't want him penciled in as a starting OF in 2026. 

He'll likely work his way into 300-400 PA anyways with guys like Springer/Santander and Varsho in the fold and if they hit the IL or need rest at any point during the season. 

Lukes shouldn't be the roadblock in going after an outfielder like Tucker. Plus if the Jays don't resign Bichette, they need to replace that offensive production somewhere and most likely will be in the outfield. 

[jaysblue]

19 hours ago, Omar said:

Lukes is primed to be traded this off season. His value will never be higher. Hate to see him go but business is business. 

He's primed to be traded? He's a 30-year-old journey-man outfielder who will be under 400 AB's this season. What do you expect the Jays will get for Lukes in a trade?

It's better just to hold onto him as he's proven to be solid insurance in case someone goes on the IL and he's someone you can rely on starting over a 2-3 week period if need be without hurting the lineup and defense.  

[jaysblue]

21 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Technically it would be one of Clement/Lukes going to the bench in this scenario so you just gotta take your pick.  

If the Jays don't bring back Bichette, Clement is likely guaranteed a starting role in 2026 whether at second or short. 

Jays likely would roll with an infield of Barger at 3B, Clement or Gimenez playing 2B or SS, and instead spend money bringing in an outfielder to replace the offensive production of Bo. 

[Omar]

8 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

He's primed to be traded? He's a 30-year-old journey-man outfielder who will be under 400 AB's this season. What do you expect the Jays will get for Lukes in a trade?

It's better just to hold onto him as he's proven to be solid insurance in case someone goes on the IL and he's someone you can rely on starting over a 2-3 week period if need be without hurting the lineup and defense.  

His value will never be higher =/= he has high value.  He will end up being a throw in if there is deal to be had.  

[BatFlip]

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

He's primed to be traded? He's a 30-year-old journey-man outfielder who will be under 400 AB's this season. What do you expect the Jays will get for Lukes in a trade?

It's better just to hold onto him as he's proven to be solid insurance in case someone goes on the IL and he's someone you can rely on starting over a 2-3 week period if need be without hurting the lineup and defense.  

I would tend to agree.  He's not arb eligible till 2028 and he's great depth to have on the roster. 

Roster depth has been an incredible strength this year, both for injuries and specific match-ups.  

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, Omar said:

His value will never be higher =/= he has high value.  He will end up being a throw in if there is deal to be had.  

You're not fooling the 29 other teams in thinking Lukes is a legitimate everyday MLB outfielder. He's not going to sway any deal as a final piece. 

He's more valuable to the Jays as OF depth and since he's not arb eligible until 2028. No harm in keeping him around. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

I like the thought of a Lukes, Straw, Schneider, Heineman bench next season.

As long as there isn't a ton of regression, the main position players roster is set up really well going forward into next season. Other than Springer they're all relatively young, and other than Bo they're all set to be back.

Bullpen looks promising as well with only Dominguez a free agent and a huge chunk of them not even arb eligible yet.

Rotation will definitely need some work though. Hopefully Bieber is still a stud and likes his time in TO enough to sign back in free agency.

[John_Havok]

39 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

I like the thought of a Lukes, Straw, Schneider, Heineman bench next season.

As long as there isn't a ton of regression, the main position players roster is set up really well going forward into next season. Other than Springer they're all relatively young, and other than Bo they're all set to be back.

Bullpen looks promising as well with only Dominguez a free agent and a huge chunk of them not even arb eligible yet.

Rotation will definitely need some work though. Hopefully Bieber is still a stud and likes his time in TO enough to sign back in free agency.

Can probably count on regression from Heineman for sure... straw is what he is so...his d and baserunning will still be there... if anything he should only get better with the bat, because he cant really get worse... but you wouldn't really project that to happen.

Maybe Lukes and Schneider's numbers regression slightly, but you wouldn't expect it to be a massive regression. A bench of those 4 plus a guy like Clement is pretty solid. 

[jmomcc]

The athletic just had an article up with the top 25 free agents for next year. There actually is some intriguing starting pitching out there this winter which is great timing for us. I think we should be able to put together a rotation similar to this year before factoring in any internal movers. 

I have no idea how to replace Bichette. Gimenez seems like the most likely one for one. I'd also like to see Loperfido get a full run at it next year. 

[jaysblue]

A lot of SP's available to choose from, but we'll see how the market plays out for them. Like last offseason, you either had to sign them early or play the waiting game until February since prices were kind of absurd for mid-rotation arms. The top arms available will be Cease, Woodruff, Framber Valdez, and Bieber (if he pitches well coming back from the IL). As for other arms, King, Scherzer, Kelly, Flaherty, Gallen, Eflin, Ranger Suarez, Buehler, and Bassitt + others are available. 

As for bats, a lot of guys likely will decline their player options (Alonso, Bregman, and possibly Bellinger). Tucker, Schwarber and Eugenio Suarez are the big free agents followed by guys like Torres, Naylor, Ozuna, Arraez, O'Hearn. A lot of DH type of bats. 

 

[jaysblue]

19 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Can probably count on regression from Heineman for sure... straw is what he is so...his d and baserunning will still be there... if anything he should only get better with the bat, because he cant really get worse... but you wouldn't really project that to happen.

Maybe Lukes and Schneider's numbers regression slightly, but you wouldn't expect it to be a massive regression. A bench of those 4 plus a guy like Clement is pretty solid. 

For sure you'll likely get regression from all those 4 guys. However, if they're on the bench and not starters, that regression likely won't hurt as much. 

They'll likely even be some regression with Clement. If Clement is either the starting 2B or SS next season, the Jays have to find another versatile infielder who can play every infield position. 

 

[max silver]

10 hours ago, jmomcc said:

The athletic just had an article up with the top 25 free agents for next year. There actually is some intriguing starting pitching out there this winter which is great timing for us. I think we should be able to put together a rotation similar to this year before factoring in any internal movers. 

I have no idea how to replace Bichette. Gimenez seems like the most likely one for one. I'd also like to see Loperfido get a full run at it next year. 

I think there is a pretty decent chance that the team will retain Bo in free agency. The uncomfortable conversation about a position change will need to happen sooner or later but the bat is such a key piece to deepen the lineup.

[Brownie19]

22 hours ago, jaysblue said:

If the Jays don't bring back Bichette, Clement is likely guaranteed a starting role in 2026 whether at second or short. 

Jays likely would roll with an infield of Barger at 3B, Clement or Gimenez playing 2B or SS, and instead spend money bringing in an outfielder to replace the offensive production of Bo. 

I was thinking about this the other day...wouldn't a healthy Santander essentially replace Bo's offensive production?  We have a good offense right now and that's while getting nothing from Tony Taters.  They are different types of hitters, but even if we get the 2022/23 version of him, he should replace a lot of Bo's offense alone.  I would acknowledge there's a risk there, but it would allow them to focus most of their budget towards the rotation, which seems like the biggest need this offseason.

I'm not suggesting we punt offense altogether, but I think the big splashes need to be on the pitching side myself.

I think this is lining up to be a good position for the Jays, given the volume of quality starters hitting the FA market this offseason (as you noted).

[Brownie19]

20 hours ago, jaysblue said:

You're not fooling the 29 other teams in thinking Lukes is a legitimate everyday MLB outfielder. He's not going to sway any deal as a final piece. 

He's more valuable to the Jays as OF depth and since he's not arb eligible until 2028. No harm in keeping him around. 

I agree.  He's a really solid #4 OFer.  Just keep him and milk as much value out of him as you can for the next 2-3 years.

[AMS528]

32 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I was thinking about this the other day...wouldn't a healthy Santander essentially replace Bo's offensive production?  We have a good offense right now and that's while getting nothing from Tony Taters.  They are different types of hitters, but even if we get the 2022/23 version of him, he should replace a lot of Bo's offense alone.  I would acknowledge there's a risk there, but it would allow them to focus most of their budget towards the rotation, which seems like the biggest need this offseason.

I'm not suggesting we punt offense altogether, but I think the big splashes need to be on the pitching side myself.

I think this is lining up to be a good position for the Jays, given the volume of quality starters hitting the FA market this offseason (as you noted).

I just don't know if we can rely on the idea of Santander providing that production. I hope he does, but he's lost a year, heading into his 30s which is a bad time to have that happen. It's a good thing his AAV is low, helps if he can't make it back to being productive. 

[AMS528]

Vladdy's xBA is wild. It's .326 which is miles ahead of second which is Bo at .307. Removing Bo the next is Marte at .304. The difference between Vlad and Marte of .022 is the same as the difference between Marte (3rd) and Rooker (38th). 

I like to post these things to soothe people who might be worried about Vladdy's production over the next few years. There's practically no one else in the league who makes solid contact with the baseball on such a regular basis. I like to believe that there's a very solid floor of performance that exists for him. 

[Brownie19]

26 minutes ago, AMS528 said:

I just don't know if we can rely on the idea of Santander providing that production. I hope he does, but he's lost a year, heading into his 30s which is a bad time to have that happen. It's a good thing his AAV is low, helps if he can't make it back to being productive. 

That's why I said there was risk in it, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 2022/23 production (120 wRC+ bat).  The Jays will have to evaluate that probability.

I mean if he's not at least a 115 wRC+ bat, then he becomes almost useless for us over the next 4 years.  That would really suck balls.

[max silver]

12 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

That's why I said there was risk in it, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 2022/23 production (120 wRC+ bat).  The Jays will have to evaluate that probability.

I mean if he's not at least a 115 wRC+ bat, then he becomes almost useless for us over the next 4 years.  That would really suck balls.

So the difference between Santander being good (120 wRC+) or useless (114 wRC+) is 6 points?

[glory]

I think the Jays should be in a good position this winter. Money coming off the books and and starting pitching dominating the FA pool. Exactly what they need to be spending on. Not many impact position players available other than Tucker, Bo, and Schwarber.  Nighengale is saying that the D-Backs could move Marte this winter, which would make a lot of sense for the Jays. Better player than Bo, more reasonable contract (even though it extends to his mid/late 30's), and would pair very nicely with Vlad in the lineup. Gimenez could shift over to SS. Would cost a lot to acquire though, I would imagine, assuming he's available to begin with. 

[AMS528]

4 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

That's why I said there was risk in it, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 2022/23 production (120 wRC+ bat).  The Jays will have to evaluate that probability.

I mean if he's not at least a 115 wRC+ bat, then he becomes almost useless for us over the next 4 years.  That would really suck balls.

Yes that would.

The other thing we would have to measure about Santander replacing Bo's offensive production is that we're comparing three things there. Santander's production subbing in for Bo's. But that's partially dependent on Bo's replacement and the comparison then is also the production we received while Santander didn't play. Chunks of those ABs in the field went to Schneider/Barger/Lukes/Loperfido while Springer has taken a lot of those DH ABs. Like the collective hitting numbers that went to Santander's missed playtime has probably been net exceptional, well above average at least. 

When we're talking the overall production from Bo being replaced, it won't just line up to Santander subbing in that production. Because the Jays depth has been so good, unless the replacements (say it's Gimenez and Clement mostly) hit above average in the way Santander's replacements did, you're not going to be succesfully replacing the collective offense. 

[Brownie19]

4 minutes ago, max silver said:

So the difference between Santander being good (120 wRC+) or useless (114 wRC+) is 6 points?

Yeah that's fair.  Maybe 105 is "useless", 110 is "disappointing" and 115 is "serviceable"  

He doesn't bring much else to the table (outside of leadership), so he needs to hit.

[Brownie19]

5 minutes ago, AMS528 said:

Yes that would.

The other thing we would have to measure about Santander replacing Bo's offensive production is that we're comparing three things there. Santander's production subbing in for Bo's. But that's partially dependent on Bo's replacement and the comparison then is also the production we received while Santander didn't play. Chunks of those ABs in the field went to Schneider/Barger/Lukes/Loperfido while Springer has taken a lot of those DH ABs. Like the collective hitting numbers that went to Santander's missed playtime has probably been net exceptional, well above average at least. 

When we're talking the overall production from Bo being replaced, it won't just line up to Santander subbing in that production. Because the Jays depth has been so good, unless the replacements (say it's Gimenez and Clement mostly) hit above average in the way Santander's replacements did, you're not going to be succesfully replacing the collective offense. 

Yeah I know it's not that simple, but a heathy Santander plays LF/RF/DH (with Springer), Barger plays 3rd regularly (his best defensive position) and Clement/Gimenez slide to SS.  Schneider may play more 2nd base all under this scenario.

We have a lot of versatility on this team thankfully.  We've played almost the full season without Tony, so you can just swap him and Bo from the 25 man roster and we can use positional versatility to replicate a similar offensive team IMO. 

You probably still look to add an offensive player to replace France, but probably be looking to spend most of the available budget on the rotation.

[AMS528]

2 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Yeah I know it's not that simple, but a heathy Santander plays LF/RF/DH (with Springer), Barger plays 3rd regularly (his best defensive position) and Clement/Gimenez slide to SS.  Schneider may play more 2nd base all under this scenario.

We have a lot of versatility on this team thankfully.  We've played almost the full season without Tony, so you can just swap him and Bo from the 25 man roster and we can use positional versatility to replicate a similar offensive team IMO. 

You probably still look to add an offensive player to replace France, but probably be looking to spend most of the available budget on the rotation.

Schneider being legit again would go a long way in accomplishing this. 

 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, AMS528 said:

Schneider being legit again would go a long way in accomplishing this. 

 

100%  I'm fascinated to see what Davis Schneider becomes.  He has 450 horrendous PA's sandwiched between about 300 incredible PA's over the course of his career.  If he's a legit ML starter, or even just a really solid platoon/bench guy - that would be huge for the Jays.

[Terminator]

[Grant77]

49 minutes ago, Terminator said:

I predicted the other day that this would happen, with Berrios and Lauer piggybacking on Saturday and Gausman taking his regular turn on Sunday. I can still see that happening.

[G-Snarls]

19 hours ago, Terminator said:

Woohoo!!!!!

Must see TV

[G-Snarls]

19 hours ago, Grant77 said:

I predicted the other day that this would happen, with Berrios and Lauer piggybacking on Saturday and Gausman taking his regular turn on Sunday. I can still see that happening.

Yeah I've also felt that keeping Berrios to twice through the order and piggybacking with Lauer might be the best option

Saves the bullpen

Avoids going to a 6 man rotation when there are extra off days

[Masterbather]

On 8/18/2025 at 11:12 AM, AMS528 said:

Schneider being legit again would go a long way in accomplishing this. 

 

I said earlier in the season before he got sent down he seems like a guy who should be much better than he was. Compact power swing, really good eye at the plate, mustache. I always felt like there was more there.

I've been thrilled to see his turnaround this year, I feel like it should be sustainable at least to some level. He's even been hitting righties. I feel like he should be an everyday player right now.

 

[sliderguy35]

its really impressive that schneider's been able to make meaningfully more contact & cut the strikeouts from "atrocious" to just a normal level of "bad" without hampering his quality of contact (more barrels, still pulling the ball in the air more than basically anyone in the league).

it's unrealistic to think he's going to keep being a 140 wRC+ guy (it's almost impossible to carry a BABIP over .300 in a larger sample size when you hit that many flyballs), but he's proven he's at least able to do a credible isaac paredes impression this year (albeit with a bit more raw pop so he's not as ballpark-dependent). schneider is just going to be subject to more hot/cold variance since he doesn't make nearly as much contact as paredes does, but it probably balances out to a guy who's slightly better than league average in the long run. 

 

also, i wonder if all the work the jays have been doing in Japan the last few years will have them as one of the leaders to land munetaka murakami this winter. he'll /probably/ be able to stick at 3rd, (at least for the first few years) & you can move barger to be a full-time outfielder next year.

normally i'd be the first guy out on a profile like this since there are GLARING red flags (sub 65% contact rate in 2024 in NPB!!! hasn't handled velo very well recently, etc), but it's not hard to talk yourself into a guy like this. Hes going to be a 26 year old with legitimate 80 grade power who's shown the ability to be elite already & could potentially be a swing tweak away from being a 130-140 wRC+ cornerstone in the lineup.

the jays are one of the few teams with the depth & financial muscle to be able to weather if he doesn't work out too. would love to see them take the shot because if it works out... sheesh