Shape of the Blue Jays: Bieber, Springer, Gausman

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition.

All stats entering July 30, 2026.

Shane Bieber

At this juncture, we don't yet know if the Blue Jays plan to trade Shane Bieber. If they hadn't ruled it out before Tuesday, then his outing at Nationals Park was not a convincing audition. The veteran right-hander walked six Washington hitters in a first inning that he failed to get out of, setting a couple of dubious records in the process. Drawing hasty conclusions about a starter soon after his return from a long-term injury is bad practice, so no one outing should move the needle too much. Unfortunately, though, his season numbers were not in an ideal spot beforehand, so you can imagine how they look now.

Bieber, a command-over-stuff guy, has seen a near-10% drop in zone rate from last year. Only 40.8% of his pitches this year have been in the strike zone, dead last among all MLB starters with at least 30 IP. That's an unfathomable number for a pitcher with his skillset and tenure, and the results show what happens when that part of his game isn't working.

Curiously, despite positive results, Bieber's changeup quality has plummeted (101 Stuff+ to 84 according to FanGraphs, 70-grade stuff to 54 according to PitchingBot). Its velocity and movement are at normal levels, but it has gained spin while his four-seamer has lost spin, and the two pitches' break axes are closer to one another, so there's less separating them. Modern playoff pitching strategy has shown that just because a guy isn't starting in October doesn't mean he can't be useful, but this version of Bieber will have to show more to warrant a spot on a postseason roster.

George Springer

It seems like George Springer has moved past whatever effects were still lingering from his foot injury. He's slashing .288/.354/.525 (.879 OPS) with four home runs in July, easily his best month of the season. His slow start was caused by a few things: more chase, less damage (which, as this year's Blue Jays have shown us time and again, are often related), and specifically, some of the same problems that plagued him in 2024, namely too many groundballs to the pull side caused by slight errors in timing.

For the most part, the reason for the turnaround has been simple. He's swinging harder!

His bat speed has gone up this month against all pitches, but it's increased the most against fastballs, which he has always loved to hit. Coming out of the All-Star break, I tabled a mock trade that sent Springer to the Padres for a return similar to what the Jays got for Justin Turner in 2024. I'm now confident that if he were dealt, Ross Atkins and company would be able to aim higher. There isn't always much you can learn about a soon-to-be-37-year-old DH over the span of a couple weeks in July that you didn't know already, but bat speed has a ton of predictive signal, and Springer still has it. According to the projection models at FanGraphs, Springer should post a wRC+ between 114 and 130 the rest of this season. A lot of contenders need right-handed bats, and there aren't many out there, so he should get a good return if dealt . . . but that's a big if, because Springer now has 10-and-5 rights (10 years of service time, five consecutive seasons with the same team), which allows him to veto any trade to any club.

Kevin Gausman

Kevin Gausman's outing on Sunday showed us some familiar sights. He gave up three runs across six innings, striking out six and walking one, providing his team with the chance to win and eating innings in the process. By the time he was pulled, the Jays had yet to score or draw a walk, mustering just six hits, five of them singles. It's only fitting that he was hung out to dry one more time by an offense that will carry most of the blame if he is dealt. He took less money to come to Toronto as a free agent five years ago, a decision he feels is the best he ever made. If this is the end of his tenure here, he deserved better. Baseball doesn't always work that way.

Compared to last year, Gausman has lost a smidge of velocity on his four-seamer and a couple inches of run on his splitter. He's had more blowups than we're used to seeing, and his ERA is up nearly a full run, from 3.59 to 4.51. The more you look, though, the more there is to be encouraged by.

Kevin Gausman Key Indicators, 2025-26 (Statcast, Fangraphs)

If he was good enough to be a No. 1 starter on a team that secured the top seed in the AL in 2025, he's surely good enough to be a No. 3 starter on any playoff team in 2026. Not as much has changed under the hood for Gausman as you might think, and if it weren't for the crazy market for bats right now, I'd confidently say that he would fetch a bigger return than anyone on this roster if he were traded tomorrow. Gausman admitted in the piece I linked to above that winning a championship this year won't mean as much to him as last year would've, but seeing him accomplish that would still be something I think everyone in this fanbase could get behind.

View our top trade candidates list, up to nearly 70 names and updated regularly!