General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[max silver]

14 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Crazy how closely-grouped together everyone in the AL is this year.

You have one garbage team (ChiSox), two below average teams that aren't that bad (A's and Angels) and then everyone could make or miss the playoffs and I wouldn't be surprised either way.

I fully expect the AL East to be a dogfight this season. The Yankees injury issues have really evened out the field to a great degree.

[glory]

The AL as a whole looks very mid on paper, especially with the Yankees and O's having injury issues. I would expect the Red Sox to take a leap forward this season, but aside from them it's hard to see a team that is going to dominate in the AL. Might be another year where the Wild Card teams are in the mid to high 80s. The Central teams again will have a huge advantage getting to beat up on the White Sox. 

[BB17]

31 minutes ago, Terminator said:

It's tough to keep Yarbrough when he's out of options and wants 2 mil guaranteed.

The other back of the bullen candidates are at least one of the following:

• cheaper (all of them)
• younger (all of them but Barnes)
• have options (Tate, Walker, etc.) or
• currently tinkering with their stuff which might give them a true talent change (Lovelady, Barnes).

If we should be upset about anyone it should be Nance who has some of the best Stuff+ in baseball. Though I'm not sure if he's still sticking around? I haven't heard anything.

I feel like stuff+ is kinda overrated. I haven't seen a true study about it or anything but feels like I've seen a lot of guys who grade out well with the metric who just aren't that good. Zach Pop I think graded out really well and its pretty clear he's sucked for a while.

 

[Terminator]

21 minutes ago, glory said:

The AL as a whole looks very mid on paper, especially with the Yankees and O's having injury issues. I would expect the Red Sox to take a leap forward this season, but aside from them it's hard to see a team that is going to dominate in the AL. Might be another year where the Wild Card teams are in the mid to high 80s. The Central teams again will have a huge advantage getting to beat up on the White Sox. 

The Red Sox will be interesting. They did make a ton of additions and they also have those top prospects.

But they lost a lot of underrated guys or guys who had pretty good seasons for them. So when they add Chrochet, Bregman and Chapman they are replacing a fairly high baseline in Tyler O'Neil, Pivetta, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, etc. 

There's no doubt that the net result will be positive, but how much better are they over the 81-win team they had last year? And then on top of it they are already dealing with injuries to the rotation.

Crawford and Bello should be back before too long but opening the season with Richard Fitts and Sean Newcomb in the rotation isn't ideal.

[Laika]

You have to know how to use Stuff+. It's just a tool. 

Nance pairs decent stuff with poor command/locations. He also does not actually have a real dynamite pitch. 

Pop has a 106 Stuff+ as a reliever, Nance is 103 Stuff+. These are not great figures for an RP. Good but not great. Lots of ways to be bad with slightly above average stuff. 

I mean just use velo as the corollary. You can throw hard and suck. That doesn't mean that throwing hard is bad. In fact we know it's better to throw harder - more room for error. Stuff is the same. 

[Jays24]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

Come on man, letting a mediocre longman type go at the end of spring training is hardly going to provide ammunition for firing a front office.

I'm definitely not saying letting Yarborough go should be any reason to fire anyone even though I didn't like the move. Just mentioned it's just a small footnote to the lengthy list of people who want him gone lol.  

For the record, I think the entire AL sucks so why can't we suck less than the others?  Still not happy with who our 4th best hitter is but this team isn't much worse than any other team in the AL.  If things break right, we can have a magical season.  

[BB17]

2 hours ago, Laika said:

You have to know how to use Stuff+. It's just a tool. 

Nance pairs decent stuff with poor command/locations. He also does not actually have a real dynamite pitch. 

Pop has a 106 Stuff+ as a reliever, Nance is 103 Stuff+. These are not great figures for an RP. Good but not great. Lots of ways to be bad with slightly above average stuff. 

I mean just use velo as the corollary. You can throw hard and suck. That doesn't mean that throwing hard is bad. In fact we know it's better to throw harder - more room for error. Stuff is the same. 

But even Pop had a 105 location+ and was beyond awful last year. So does it fail to take into account how pitches tunnel with each other etc etc or is it solely just grading each pitch on velo/movement?

I guess its useful in looking in a vacuum at certain pitches but really isn't useful in telling if a player is good or not?

 

[Laika]

37 minutes ago, BB17 said:

But even Pop had a 105 location+ and was beyond awful last year. So does it fail to take into account how pitches tunnel with each other etc etc or is it solely just grading each pitch on velo/movement?

I guess its useful in looking in a vacuum at certain pitches but really isn't useful in telling if a player is good or not?

 

Stuff+ is mostly each pitch in a vacuum. It does use the main fastball as the basis of the model and measures everybody's other stuff off of that pitch. There are other metrics that try to measure how a pitcher's entire arsenal interacts, each pitch with the others, but they are newer. 

It would fail to take into account a lot of things. I don't think it captures "tunneling" at all for example, so someone like Pop could have a good sinker and a nasty slider but if that slider is recognizable immediately out of the hand, hitters just won't even try to hit it and/or they can destroy any mistake sliders. Something like that probably explains Zach Pop entirely, since his career run values are positive on the sinker but negative on the 112 Stuff+ slider. 

Also important to note that not every pitch has a 100 as the average Stuff+. The typical Slider is a 110 pitch, so Pop's is closer to average. And his 105 sinker is actually a full standard deviation above the typical sinker, which carries a 92.5 mark. So he's more of a one pitch dude, with a boring slider, and not really a guy with two plus pitches at all. 

Stuff+ is pretty good at telling how good a player is in small sample sizes. Again, similar to velocity. Just think of it like a better, scientific version of scouting grades. 

It can be pretty dang useful in small samples but becomes less useful over time unless you are thinking about changes a certain pitcher is going through. 

[jaysblue]

4 hours ago, max silver said:

I fully expect the AL East to be a dogfight this season. The Yankees injury issues have really evened out the field to a great degree.

AL East is definitely up for grabs. Tough to pick a clear favourite right now. Anyone of them could win the division. My pick is Boston, but I wouldn't be surprised if even Toronto or Tampa managed to win the division. Hopefully the Jays get off to a good start and force Atkins' hand at the trade deadline to make some big moves.  

[jaysblue]

4 hours ago, Terminator said:

Crazy how closely-grouped together everyone in the AL is this year.

You have one garbage team (ChiSox), two below average teams that aren't that bad (A's and Angels) and then everyone could make or miss the playoffs and I wouldn't be surprised either way.

There really isn't an AL powerhouse team like the NL has with the Dodgers, Braves and Phillies. AL is definitely wide open. Blue Jays definitely have a chance. 

Tough to pick the division winners in all AL divisions. Everyone is so closely-grouped together. 

Shocked predictions are so low on the Reds. I could see them contending with the Cubs for the division, especially if Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are healthy. In the NL East, still have the Phillies over the Braves right now. 

[Terminator]

45 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

AL East is definitely up for grabs. Tough to pick a clear favourite right now. Anyone of them could win the division. My pick is Boston, but I wouldn't be surprised if even Toronto or Tampa managed to win the division. Hopefully the Jays get off to a good start and force Atkins' hand at the trade deadline to make some big moves.  

Boston definitely seems to have the most helium right now. 

PECOTA has them finishing last though, for whatever that is worth, with 80 wins. Also has the Orioles 1st and us in 2nd. Yanks in 3rd and Rays 4th.

[Key22]

Blair, Barker and Morosi on the fan 590 (Sportnet) all feel that Shapiro has been extended given the Kirk signing and the way Shapiro talked about Vladdy (as he's never done that in the past) and that he talked about signing him ppossibly during free agency which implies that he (Shapiro) is going to be here in free agency.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/blair-barker/david-samson-balances-the-jays-books-over-unders/

 

 

[Laika]

Good.

[John_Havok]

5 hours ago, BB17 said:

I feel like stuff+ is kinda overrated. I haven't seen a true study about it or anything but feels like I've seen a lot of guys who grade out well with the metric who just aren't that good. Zach Pop I think graded out really well and its pretty clear he's sucked for a while.

 

Its just like anything else advanced stat-wise. stuff+ isn't a be-all end-all measurement that guarantees anything. It's just an indicator that there's a really good upside potential IF they can get whatever switch that needs to flip, to flip. You'd rather start with a guy with massive stuff plus and take the chsnce on refining it overall a guy with like an 85 or 90 that had to perfect

[Spanky99]

50 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Boston definitely seems to have the most helium right now. 

PECOTA has them finishing last though, for whatever that is worth, with 80 wins. Also has the Orioles 1st and us in 2nd. Yanks in 3rd and Rays 4th.

Pffttt... Jays, meat. 😉

[Masterbather]

6 hours ago, Terminator said:

Crazy how closely-grouped together everyone in the AL is this year.

You have one garbage team (ChiSox), two below average teams that aren't that bad (A's and Angels) and then everyone could make or miss the playoffs and I wouldn't be surprised either way.

Tampa, KC and Seattle. 

Boston, Texas, O's WC.

The AL is open for sure. As open as ever. Still hate the direction of this team. Whoever comes out of the AL will be target practice for LA anyhow.

NL: Dodgers, no one else matters. Basically ruining the entire baseball season before it even starts. 

[Spanky99]

[Spanky99]

1 hour ago, Key22 said:

Blair, Barker and Morosi on the fan 590 (Sportnet) all feel that Shapiro has been extended given the Kirk signing and the way Shapiro talked about Vladdy (as he's never done that in the past) and that he talked about signing him ppossibly during free agency which implies that he (Shapiro) is going to be here in free agency.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/blair-barker/david-samson-balances-the-jays-books-over-unders/

 

Why wouldn't Shapiro be here in FA?

[Key22]

Usually, if it is the last year of a GM's deal - they hire someone new at the end of the season not the end of the calendar year to make decisions. Shapiro's contract ends 2025 and Atkins 2026.

 

But it appears, given Shapiro's talk of the future, that he has probably signed an extension.

[Spanky99]

My point.

 

 

[Eat My Shatkins]

I have a hard time believing they'd agree to give a worm burning 1B $500+ million.

[Spanky99]

23 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

I have a hard time believing they'd agree to give a worm burning 1B $500+ million.

You're mad, true story. 🤪

 

[L54]

 

[Masterbather]

13 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

I have a hard time believing they'd agree to give a worm burning 1B $500+ million.

Unless it's all Rogers' decision it appears clear the baseball people within the organization don't feel comfortable giving Vlad superstar money and it's completely understandable.

That having been said, you knew Vlad was going to overvalue himself, you knew the market was inflating for superstar players, The decision on him, one way or another, needed to have been made long before this point. Inexcusable handling of your most important asset.

[BatFlip]

37 minutes ago, L54 said:

 

Does kind of look like Reese.  They have the throwing hand in the wrong place....

[max silver]

38 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

Unless it's all Rogers' decision it appears clear the baseball people within the organization don't feel comfortable giving Vlad superstar money and it's completely understandable.

That having been said, you knew Vlad was going to overvalue himself, you knew the market was inflating for superstar players, The decision on him, one way or another, needed to have been made long before this point. Inexcusable handling of your most important asset.

I think the reported $450 million present day value the team offered to Vlad easily represents superstar value. 

[John_Havok]

56 minutes ago, Masterbather said:

Unless it's all Rogers' decision it appears clear the baseball people within the organization don't feel comfortable giving Vlad superstar money and it's completely understandable.

That having been said, you knew Vlad was going to overvalue himself, you knew the market was inflating for superstar players, The decision on him, one way or another, needed to have been made long before this point. Inexcusable handling of your most important asset.

They tried extending him numerous times, he didn't want to listen at that time. 

I don't get why so many people blame the FO completely that he's not signed when its exceptionally clear he was never going to sign any extension prior to FA unless it was a massive overpay. That's the FOs fault for not doing that? Really?

[Eat My Shatkins]

26 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

They tried extending him numerous times, he didn't want to listen at that time. 

I don't get why so many people blame the FO completely that he's not signed when its exceptionally clear he was never going to sign any extension prior to FA unless it was a massive overpay. That's the FOs fault for not doing that? Really?

And here comes the parade of nit wits who will claim the Jays FO should have traded Vlad if he wasn't willing to talk extension at an earlier date.

[BB17]

Wonder if Shapiro did sign an extension they aren’t publicly saying it because Atkins didn’t so they don’t want the public to jump on why Atkins isn’t signed but Shapiro is narrative. I feel like everyone isn’t dumb and knows Atkins is in more of a make or break year but I can see why they wouldn’t want it to be a distraction.

[connorp2]

For Spanky: No fantasy thread I see, so will post here that you got that extra $25 coming your way. Sorry to bail on the league the last month but things have just been busy and lots of traveling. I didn’t actually even renew my baseball leagues. Until the next time, douche:)