General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Frankly - this is beta talk. You can't get worried about what might happen in 2034.  If you focus on the potential negatives far into the future, you'll never sign anyone.

Frankly, extending Bo and signing Tucker would probably be best case scenario right now. 

2026 top 4 of of Bo, tucker, vlad, Taters.... there's a lot to like there

[Terminator]

16 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Frankly, extending Bo and signing Tucker would probably be best case scenario right now. 

2026 top 4 of of Bo, tucker, vlad, Taters.... there's a lot to like there

They will definitely be in on Tucker. I highly doubt they get him but I bet they try and they will finish in the Top 3 again.

[Omar]

5 hours ago, Laika said:

Honestly, Bo's defense may be more interesting to watch this year than his bat. 

I don't have a lot of doubts about his ability to hit. Yeah the power comes and goes and we would all like him to pull 28 homers but if he hits .280 with 15 homers as every system expects, that's still a very good hitter for the position in a league where the typical player hits f***ing .239 these days. 

But the defense is a more interesting question. Fringe defender by scouting reports entering the league and bad metrics in his first two full seasons, 2021 and 2022, including a -7 OAA in 2022 with an even uglier UZR. 

Different story in 2023. Positive UZR! An OAA of -3 is more palatable.

2024, limited time of course around the injuries, but UZR and OAA were both in the green. 

Too early in 2025 to tell but he looks solid and has +1 OAA. Anecdotally we do seem a few years removed from him being an obviously bad shortstop. 

Perceptions of him in terms of a long/big contract are much different if you think he can provide 4 years of shortstop defense at the front end of the deal.  

So Bo playing with Gimenez on his left and Clement on his right will likely limit his defensive opportunities in terms of range. This could be a big help to him because in his mind he thinks he's Ozzie Smith but the reality is far from it. But limiting his range at that position shouldn't help his OAA at all from my thinking. Very weird. 

[Masterbather]

2 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Frankly - this is beta talk. You can't get worried about what might happen in 2034.  If you focus on the potential negatives far into the future, you'll never sign anyone.

Actually you do have to worry about what might happen in 2034 if that's how long you're signing guys through. 

I don't know what this beta stuff is all about, fiscal prudence is not about dick measuring. 

The Vlad deal is probably already bad enough, but we might survive that one, we shouldn't double down on anything beyond what they think will be Bo's useful years. 

[max silver]

2 hours ago, John_Havok said:

Frankly, extending Bo and signing Tucker would probably be best case scenario right now. 

2026 top 4 of of Bo, tucker, vlad, Taters.... there's a lot to like there

That would be a veritable murderers row top of the lineup but it would require Rogers to open up the pocketbook to previously unthinkable levels. Bo will be in for a massive raise in his next contract and Tucker could be well on his way to something approaching a Vlad level of deal.

[jaysblue]

20 hours ago, John_Havok said:

I think the same, but... what Bo gonna cost? Is Bo worth 10/300? That's probably where his ask is starting from given the recent history at the position in FA. No, he's not the same player as the below guys but ... s*** is getting weird with contracts these days

Bogaerts 11/280

Turner 11/300

Machado 10/300

Seager 10/325

Bo has to go out and post a 6-7 WAR season for him to get those types of contracts. Seager was the only guy  but Texas went crazy that offseason. As well, Seager to that point had a better career than Bo has had. 

Think more along the lines of Wily Adames. 

[G-Snarls]

First place with a grand total of 4 extra base hits (0 "HR) from Vladdy and Santander combined 

Nuts

[jaysblue]

3 hours ago, Terminator said:

They will definitely be in on Tucker. I highly doubt they get him but I bet they try and they will finish in the Top 3 again.

They likely will need to spend big on an elite SP. 

Right now, the rotation looks like more of mid-rotation type arms unless guys like Gausman and Berrios bounce back to their 2023 forms. 

[G-Snarls]

The starting pitching has been outstanding 

[Terminator]

42 minutes ago, max silver said:

it would require Rogers to open up the pocketbook to previously unthinkable levels. 

 

30 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

They likely will need to spend big on an elite SP. 

Right now, the rotation looks like more of mid-rotation type arms unless guys like Gausman and Berrios bounce back to their 2023 forms. 

I think this is the direction things are headed. Ed Rogers is hellbent on building a winner. They’re revamping everything and trying to become a self-sustaining powerhouse like the Dodgers. Payroll keeps going up, and we're in on every free agent. They'll probably try to sign Tucker and some big name pitchers.

The Phillies are probably a good example but potentially even bigger. They added tons of big name FAs in just a couple years. Not quite Mets or Dodgers spending, but they've passed the Yankees in spending and the Jays might do the same.

Plus, money’s coming off the books and Vlad’s AAV barely increases payroll. They’re going to keep spending big I guarantee it.

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, G-Snarls said:

The starting pitching has been outstanding 

What? You can't be serious. 

Outside of Bassitt and Lucas thus far, the rest of the rotation has been meh. 

[Grant77]

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

What? You can't be serious. 

Outside of Bassitt and Lucas thus far, the rest of the rotation has been meh. 

What? Gausman and Francis have been good. Advanced stats after 2 games shouldn't hold much water. We're well above average as a team as far as starting pitching goes.

[Laika]

Jays have had what, one stinker from a SP and then twelve straight good or okay performances? I guess 11/12 since the Scherzer one can't be counted.

[John_Havok]

Just now, Laika said:

Jays have had what, one stinker from a SP and then twelve straight good or okay performances? I guess 11/12 since the Scherzer one can't be counted.

Even just looking at this series...Berrios 7IP was great. Lucas 5.1 was f***ing nails, Gausman, ace-like through 8.  

Pen has had an easy series so far

[jaysblue]

49 minutes ago, Grant77 said:

What? Gausman and Francis have been good. Advanced stats after 2 games shouldn't hold much water. We're well above average as a team as far as starting pitching goes.

Rotation is decent but it hasn't been "outstanding" lol. 

It's pretty much made up of a bunch of No. 3 starters unless Gausman and Berrios return to their 2023 forms as I said. Bassitt is a FA after this season, so will need to replace him. Mad Max only signed a one-year deal. That leaves 2 open spots in the rotation in 2026. Adding an elite top starter would definitely be nice and should be at the top of the list. 

[Masterbather]

7 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Rotation is decent but it hasn't been "outstanding" lol. 

It's pretty much made up of a bunch of No. 3 starters unless Gausman and Berrios return to their 2023 forms as I said. Bassitt is a FA after this season, so will need to replace him. Mad Max only signed a one-year deal. That leaves 2 open spots in the rotation in 2026. Adding an elite top starter would definitely be nice and should be at the top of the list. 

The Easton Lucas disrespect is appalling.

[Brownie19]

2 hours ago, jaysblue said:

What? You can't be serious. 

Outside of Bassitt and Lucas thus far, the rest of the rotation has been meh. 

I think if you remove the first game the starters have an era under 2 and a WHIP under 1.  Best in the majors over that stretch.  And that was before Gausman shoved tonight.  They showed the stat in the air tonight.

[max silver]

1 minute ago, Brownie19 said:

I think if you remove the first game the starters have an era under 2 and a WHIP under 1.  Best in the majors over that stretch.  And that was before Gausman shoved tonight.  They showed the stat in the air tonight.

Even including the opening day stinker from Berrios the team is 5th in the sport in starter ERA. Apparently that's not good enough for certain posters.

[jaysblue]

5 minutes ago, max silver said:

Even including the opening day stinker from Berrios the team is 5th in the sport in starter ERA. Apparently that's not good enough for certain posters.

Don’t get too excited Max. Its a long season! 

[jaysblue]

9 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I think if you remove the first game the starters have an era under 2 and a WHIP under 1.  Best in the majors over that stretch.  And that was before Gausman shoved tonight.  They showed the stat in the air tonight.

I wrote this before the Gausman gem tonight lol. But still, need to see Berrios and Gausman return to there 2023 form. Otherwise the rotation is made of a bunch of No. 3 starters. 
 

all I was saying was that hopefully the Jays could target an elite top arm via free agency

[Grant77]

41 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Rotation is decent but it hasn't been "outstanding" lol. 

It's pretty much made up of a bunch of No. 3 starters unless Gausman and Berrios return to their 2023 forms as I said. Bassitt is a FA after this season, so will need to replace him. Mad Max only signed a one-year deal. That leaves 2 open spots in the rotation in 2026. Adding an elite top starter would definitely be nice and should be at the top of the list. 

I get that there is more to it than this, but this is since opening day with a Hall of Famer being injured:

6 IP, 2 ER

3 IP, 2 ER

6 IP, 1 ER

6 IP, 2 ER

5 IP, 0 ER

5.1 IP, 3 ER

6.2 IP, 0 ER

5.2 IP, 2 ER

7 IP, 1 ER

5.1 IP, 0 ER

8 IP, 0 ER

That's consistent and outstanding by any standard. No games less than 5 innings (injury start excepted) and a chance to win every game. You really can't ask for anything more.

At this point, I'm happy bringing back Bassitt for another year and investing in a bat, which is a far more obvious need. 

 

[jaysblue]

Booked my flight to Minneapolis in June! Woohoo! 🥳

[BB17]

10 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Frankly - this is beta talk. You can't get worried about what might happen in 2034.  If you focus on the potential negatives far into the future, you'll never sign anyone.

Sure if it was one dead year but there could be like 4-5 dead years on both of those contracts which is way different lol. And it’s literally an executives job to always have an eye on the future outlook otherwise they would be doing a disservice to the organization.

People complained about AA trading from the farm system, well at least he didn’t sign anyone albatross contracts which is way worse of a situation/would handicap the team worse.

[BB17]

Pitching has been pretty damn good I would say. Biggest positive has been the starters going deep into games which has allowed the jays to deploy a rested pen. 

Having the starter go 6/7 and turning to green/little/garcia/hoffman helps so much. The less of bums like Barnes the better.

Hoffman has been an absolute stud. Signing couldn’t have gone any better so far.

[Laika]

Kevin Gausman has a bonkers 125 Stuff+ on his fastball this year. 

What the heck? 

The velo is back slightly but not above his prior years when this was a 100 Stuff+ pitch. 

... hmmmm it has the highest IVB ever at 17.9 per PitcherList and his VAA of -4.8 is the lowest it has ever been (lower is better for this, if you have a rising fastball). And per statcast his extension is the lowest it has ever been. 

I think he's done something with his arm slot or release point to juice this fastball into a plus pitch. 

That might have also made the splitter less effective. 

 

INTERESTING KEVIN VERY f***ING INTERESTING YOU VETERAN YOU 

[Brownie19]

On the broadcast last night, they said Gausman has the 2nd most vertical drop on his splitter in all of baseball.  It didn't clarify if that was "this year" or over his career or something else.  I took it as "this year" - which is obviously a SSS, but I thought that was a good?

[L54]

Is he even throwing the split? 

[Jays24]

One point I haven't seen mentioned anywhere is whether it makes sense to move Scherzer to the bullpen while Lucas is dealing.  This is more than an overreaction to 2 good starts, it's reacting to Scherzer's inability to exceed 40 pitches before his thumb issue flares up.

The way Schneider likes to use the bullpen, giving him another high leverage option there could help the team more than letting him breakdown at his current age.  Question is, can Scherzer's ego handle the move to become the next John Smoltz?

[Laika]

2 minutes ago, L54 said:

Is he even throwing the split? 

Yeah it's just not getting whiffs and it's the same velo band as his slider so you don't notice as much on camera when he whips it out. 

It is getting 11% whiffs this year. Last year it was 33% and the years prior it was over 40%. 

He might be tipping it... 

[L54]

10 minutes ago, Laika said:

Yeah it's just not getting whiffs and it's the same velo band as his slider so you don't notice as much on camera when he whips it out. 

It is getting 11% whiffs this year. Last year it was 33% and the years prior it was over 40%. 

He might be tipping it... 

I haven’t watched a Gausman start but have been hearing lots about him without the split. Meaning I guess no whiffs 

He literally built himself on it and now it’s gone. Weird