Key22

I live in Hong Kong and can't access this site. I am home in Nanaimo, BC now and the site works fine so I thought I would let you know and ask if there is anything you can do to resolve the issue. Thanks.

David Samson on the Vlad deal

Usually, if it is the last year of a GM's deal - they hire someone new at the end of the season not the end of the calendar year to make decisions. Shapiro's contract ends 2025 and Atkins 2026. But it appears, given Shapiro's talk of the future, that he has probably signed an extension.

Blair, Barker and Morosi on the fan 590 (Sportnet) all feel that Shapiro has been extended given the Kirk signing and the way Shapiro talked about Vladdy (as he's never done that in the past) and that he talked about signing him ppossibly during free agency which implies that he (Shapiro) is going to be here in free agency. https://www.sportsnet.ca/590/blair-barker/david-samson-balances-the-jays-books-over-unders/

Blair and Barker - Barker doesn't think they should have extended Kirk when has another year under contract, is coming off two poor offensive years and hasn't caught more than 90 games. So here's one issue. The Jays are $50m apart on Vladdy over possibly a 14-year contract. That is an extra 3.5m a year to meet Vladdy's demand. The Kirk contract shouldn't be a hindrance since he is the only player on the books for 2030. The Kirk deal is a gamble but they always talk about risk - if Kirk goes back to his career offensive year and catches 110 games then he would likely get a $80m/5 year deal from someone. And they're signing him before he turns 32 - so it's pretty decent when you factor in the Canada factor. You should try and keep guys who want to stay here and that often means we have to overpay.

It was discussed on Blair and Barker that like with Soto - Rogers sat down to talk to the player and agent. It wasn't enough in either case.

He doesn't have enough of a supporting cast around him to win now. No farm system with elite players coming. The Jays already need another bat. I get that fans want him but he could be lousy as early as his 33 season. But hey it's not my money. If the Jays offered him $450m I can see that being way over their valuations. Somebody else can pay him - the Jays can make a run at someone else on a shorter deal like Kyle Tucker. Rogers apparently spoke directly to Vlad and tried to sign him so none of this is on Shapiro. The owner got involved and it wasn't enough money. So it goes.

I know I just dumped on Vlad but to be fair to him a little bit - he has not had anywhere near the protection in the line-up that Soto had. I mean the Jays had Vlad and a bunch of s***** hitters all around him. I mean Kirk, Varsho, no Bo for most of the year and he was atrocious when he did play and Springer. I mean eesh. Meanwhile, Soto had Judge the whole year. So Vlad had a monster year with no protection - so he does deserve some big credit for 2024. I am sure the Jays' offer to Vlad was a good one. Before Soto signed they offered him what would have been by far the largest offer to any first baseman in history. So I don't want to be too judgemental of Rogers here. There is no harm in waiting until free agency if the player isn't giving you a hometown discount. Judge ended up signing back with the Yankees. The reality is that the Jays have not been able to win with Vlad - so perhaps taking another route is better. Unfortunately, the farm is garbage so who knows where the talent is coming from. Maybe Wil Wagner will be the next Wade Boggs.

Perhaps we have to look at this more at a macro level. The Jays stunk last year with having a great year offensively from VLAD - one player does not make a winner. The fact that SOTO is grossly overpaid and will be an albatross contract in maybe 8 years (halfway through his contract) doesn't mean the Jays should follow. Soto is a bad defender and not a good runner - he is a one-dimensional player (bat) and so is Vlad. Vlad is so dumb he gets picked off second in a critical playoff game. For mega-dollar contracts I want a 5-tool player - give me someone who is a strong defender and terrific offensively - preferably a short stop or CFer. The Yankees just showed everyone what crappy defence can do in the playoffs. Now yes, they got to the WS but there is no great prize for second place. They played all year to be embarrassed on the world stage. The Jays already offered Vlad a contract that was above Freddie Freeman - you know - a better hitter and someone who has proven to do it in the clutch. Yes he's older blah blah - but I would rather have Freeman than Vlad in the ninth when you need a big hit.

Perhaps the Jays could trade a bad contract for a bad contract like Montgomery for Springer. The Dodgers have endless money and none of their pitchers are likely to throw 150 innings let alone 200 so while they have a bunch of studs they are not really innings eaters - so they kind of need 10 starters.

Anthony Santander is the same age as Pete Alonso (30) Tony Taters had a slightly higher WAR last year. Can folks explain why it would take so much more money to land Alonso? If the Jays offered Alonso the exact same deal opt out after 3 with a club option to buy out the opt out etc would he take it? If other teams saw the Santander deal why would the massively overpay Alonso now? Alonso's body shape looks far worse too FWIW so perhaps he overplayed his hand a bit. I mean, if the Jays could get Alonso, that would add the much-desired thump to the lineup, and if Bo bounces back to form, he is, in effect, another star you're adding to the lineup that we didn't have all last year. Again, $14 m AAV for Alonso seems like a good deal if it can be had. With defence up the middle and power on the corners, Varsho can make up for weaker defenders on the sides.

Yeah, we don't know what was going on behind the scenes and what Roki was looking at. Some broadcasters with knowledge of Japanese culture noted that it wasn't about the money itself but that the contract should be the highest offer on the International market. Who knows. Clearly there is some truth to it if the Dodgers are trading for more pool money. The Jays gambled here, and they lost. It's frustrating to continually be runners-up, but taking a breath for a second, the fact is we are continually second place in spite of the fact that we're last place in the AL East with no longer-term stars, an awful farm system with no star talent on the horizon, management not under long-term contracts, and not in a "movie star" climate. I think that says a helluva lot for Canada and Toronto. I just wish the Jays management accomplished what they said they were going to do when they took over the team and be like the Dodgers having high-quality talent coming through the farm and win year after year. I still think they should trade Vlad - get 4 high quality prospects to beef up the farm then sign Santander and Alonso to replace him. They would be a better team in 2025 doing that.

I think the Jays should ask high and see what can be done. Brandon Sproat, Jett Williams, Tong (Canadian) and Acuna. I doubt you can get Vientos because he's a bit of a fan favourite there and it is only 1 year of Vladdy. Still, maybe you can strengthen the return by adding something to go along with Vlad. Freeing up $28.5. which can be handed out to other free agents while strengthing your prospect depth for a player you're not going to sign anyway makes sense. Toronto fans are fickle - they show up if you win. The Jays probably have a better shot at winning by getting 2 premium prospects 2 good prospects signing one of Santander/Alonso/Bregman and another good bullpen arm than just keeping Vlad for one more year. I don't see why the Mets would have too much issue trading some prospects as they can spend and don't want to wait around 3 years to see if a prospect actually works out. I suspect this is the reason they have not been all in on Alonso because they know they're going all in for Vladdy next off-season.

July 2019. The first time I went to Roger's Center - Jays won 2-1 - Smoak was the hero that day.

Baltimore is a much better team and has far more talent than we do - it helped to finish last for like a decade to get top draft picks - and hit on those draft picks to their credit. They are well-managed. But if you take The Yankees, say and had they lost Soto for the entire year, and Cole for the entire year and their closer for the year and their set-up guy for big portions and their next best reliever had his kid get run over and miss big time and come back and stink - you get the idea. They don't make it to the WS. I am not that interested in the overall numbers in days lost to IL - Teams have 1-26 man rosters - if team 1 loses 3 of the top 5 guys on their team and team 2 loses the bottom 8 guys - team 1 is more affected than team 2. It's easy to replace your back-up catcher, 4th outfielder and 6th starter. Credit Baltimore - they lost key guys but they have a deep minor league system - when they call guys up they perform. The Jays were running guys like Bradley Zimmer in 2022 that I still can't get over - he was a walking strikeout. He struck out 45 times in 89 at bats. Strangely, it seemed like he struck out more. So yeah, all this kind of crap is on Ross and Shapiro for not developing and drafting or signing better international free agents. I mean it also doesn't help that the best ones get caught for PEDs (Martinez) or are glass (Tiedeman). I'd rather live in Toronto or Niagara Falls than Orange County - been there - meh. I mean the Jays and Toronto must have something the man likes because if it's about on-field production and winning Baltimore, Boston, New York Yankees, New York Mets, San Francisco, Atlanta, Arizona, Kansas City, Texas, and Detroit all seem to be above Toronto on the brighter future front (at least short term). Many of these offer a nicer climate and better farm systems and most have star players locked down for years. Toronto has no star locked up, no farm system, the same climate as NY. So it has to be intangibles like the people, the city. Endorsements seem odd to me - Tim Horton's Roki donuts? What's the angle there?