Another breakout prospect for the Jays in 2025, Gage Stanifer went from an unknown 19th-rounder to a borderline top-100 prospect. Prior to the 2025 season, Stanifer struggled in the Florida Complex League and Single A, pitching to an ERA over 6.00 across his first two professional seasons. Despite decent stuff, he walked a lot of batters. In 2025, Stanifer set a career high in innings pitched, with 110, and went from Single-A Dunedin up to Double-A New Hampshire, mainly piggybacking off of Trey Yesavage. He’s expected to start the 2026 season back at Double A.

One of the big things that stood out for Stanifer from his previous seasons, compared to 2025, was that he was able to make significant gains in velocity after a very productive offseason. Stanifer went from sitting 92 mph on his four-seam fastball to 95 mph. The shape of his fastball was also still very solid, with 17.8 inches of vertical break and 12.6 inches of run, and because it was such an effective offering for him, and because he could consistently throw it for strikes, Stanifer threw it over two-thirds of the time in Dunedin. 

His main secondary, thrown more against righties than lefties, is a slider that gets more depth than normal, which gives it a sort of “deathball” shape (-5.1 inches of vertical break). It was extremely effective as a whiff generator, but Stanifer could sometimes lose the zone with it, too often leading to middling chase rates. 

His third pitch is a split-changeup that’s still a work in progress. The shape is intriguing, with 15 inches of vertical separation from his fastball and nearly 14 inches of fade, but he’s still developing a feel for it. He only throws it to lefties, making him nearly a two-pitch pitcher against each handedness of hitter.

Stanifer’s arsenal and stuff propelled him to the top of the minor league leaderboards, as out of all qualified minor league pitchers, he led the pack with an absurd 35.5% K-rate, above the Cardinals’ Braden Davis and the Yankees’ Carlos Lagrange. The stuff did tick down in spring training a bit — Stanifer’s velo was not where it was in the 2025 season — leading to some poor results, but he assuaged the velo drop off with an electric Spring Breakout performance against the Phillies, striking out four batters in three scoreless innings while only giving up a single walk. The Phillies’ announcers sang his praises throughout, and his velo ticked back up; he sat 95.6 mph and touched 97.4 mph with his four-seamer.

Stanifer does have some concerns going forward, however. Although he has reined in the walks, he still walks over 10% of the batters he faces, which is fringy for a starting pitcher. Scouts also have concerns about the repeatability of the delivery. Those concerns could take his outlook from a solid fourth starter to more of a back-end bullpen piece. 

Stanifer may also want to add a pitch or more to his arsenal to better fit the role of a starter. Although his three-pitch mix has shown effectiveness already, he may need more weapons going forward. A bridge pitch like a cutter could provide that for him. 

Stanifer will start the season in Double-A New Hampshire and will be challenged against upper-level hitters again. The Jays currently have a crowded rotation, but there’s the slightest chance that Stanifer could make his MLB debut this season as a reliever if he progresses well and the Jays need some extra firepower in the ‘pen.