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Toronto Blue Jays fans want to love Vladimir Guerrero Jr. even amidst one of his most challenging seasons. They cheer, they boo, they chant his name in an effort to shake him out of whatever it is that is holding him back.
Fans can’t forget what he did last October, and everyone has their own theory of how the same hitter could possibly have disappeared over the course of one season.
Every Guerrero plate appearance at Rogers Centre feels as though 40,000 people are willing him to succeed. Every groundball to the left side of the infield produces a groan. Every fly ball produces momentary elation.
He is the face, and supposed to be the cornerstone, of the franchise. The Jays probably aren’t on the outside of the playoff picture looking in if he managed to get even close to expectations. Instead, the team is fighting for that final Wild Card.
Whether it is over the next two weeks or into the next MLB season, is there any scenario in which Guerrero returns to form? Can he rebound and bring value to a massive contract? Somewhere near the .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs he hit in 2021 or the .323/.396/.544 in 2024?
There have been moments this season where it looked like adjustments may have worked, and he brought his old swagger and patience back to the batter’s box. Unfortunately, those moments have been few and far between.
As of September 12, Guerrero is hitting .259/.330/.351 with eight home runs, 54 RBI and a .682 OPS. A year ago, he hit .292/.381/.467 with 23 homers. Two years ago, he produced a .940 OPS. Prior to games over the weekend, he had only 30 extra-base hits in 563 plate appearances this season. His isolated power, a simple measurement of extra-base damage, has fallen to .092 after sitting at .175 in 2025 and .221 in 2024.
Guerrero's expected numbers have also deteriorated. His 2026 xwOBA is around .333, compared with .384 in 2025, while his expected slugging percentage has fallen to roughly .402 from .506.
His strikeout percentage sits around 13 percent, and his walk percentage is still around nine percent. His problems are particularly pronounced against certain types of pitching rather than across every conceivable matchup. Baseball Savant has Guerrero batting .349 against four-seam fastballs and .325 against sinkers, compared with .137 against sliders and .089 against cutters.
Guerrero isn’t the only superstar to have ever slumped.
Bryce Harper won the National League MVP in 2015 by hitting .330 with 42 home runs. The following year he hit .243 with 24 homers and 86 RBI. At one point, Harper said he knew "exactly why" his production had declined and hinted at injury limitations. By 2021, Harper had won another MVP award.
Cal Raleigh hit 60 home runs last season. He produced a .948 OPS and 9.1 FanGraphs WAR, one of the best offensive seasons ever recorded by a catcher. This season, he is hitting .182/.295/.371 with 21 home runs, 60 RBI, and a .666 OPS. He may have recently turned a corner. This month, Raleigh is hitting .294/.385/.500 for an .885 OPS.
Gunnar Henderson hit .281/.364/.529 with 37 home runs in 2024 and followed that with a .787 OPS in 2025. This season, he is down to .222/.305/.398 and a .703 OPS, with 20 home runs. Despite two hits in the first game of the series with the Jays, his September numbers are a .182 average and .482 OPS.
2026 has become a season of fallen stars. ESPN’s David Schoenfield recently wrote about 12 MLB stars that are having down seasons. Apart from Guerrero, Raleigh, and Henderson, Aaron Judge has lost time to injury, José Ramírez has endured his worst season in years, and Julio Rodríguez has career lows in major slash-line categories. Trea Turner went from 5.4 bWAR in 2025 to below replacement level this season. The ESPN historical comparison found that a group of 23 players (comprising top-10 finishers in MVP voting and top-three finishers in Cy Young voting) who combined for 145.1 WAR in 2025 are on pace for only 87.2 WAR in 2026, nearly a 40% decrease. According to Schoenfield, "That would be the third-largest decline since 1995.”
Can the Jays make the playoffs without a pre-2026 version of Guerrero? Sure. But it would be much less of a rollercoaster ride if he could return to some version of his past self.
Everyone from fans to baseball analysts has a theory of what is wrong with Vladdy. Maybe it’s an injury? Maybe it’s his first move or the placement of his hands? Maybe it’s all psychological?
It is highly unlikely that anyone wants an improvement more than the man himself.
Guerrero isn't 37. He is 27. There is enormous historical precedent for stars having bad seasons and recovering. Other exceptional players have experienced severe downturns in exactly the same season. Guerrero's own career has already swung from a 1.002 OPS in 2021 to .789 in 2023, back to .940 in 2024, .848 in 2025, and now .682 in 2026. Volatility has always been part of who he is.
It is possible that the half-billion dollars the Blue Jays paid was for a good hitter rather than the transformative one they believed he could be.
Will the real Vladdy return this month? Or whenever MLB plays its next season?
Cal Raleigh can go from 60 home runs and 9.1 FanGraphs WAR to hitting .182 a year later. Gunnar Henderson can go from one of baseball's brightest young superstars to a .703 OPS season at 25. Bryce Harper could follow an MVP season with a .243 average and later win another MVP. Great players fail. Sometimes spectacularly.
Sometimes superstars come back. With Guerrero signed through 2039, the franchise certainly hopes that he returns to his former self sooner rather than later.
Desperate Jays fans are hoping he finds his stride this week or next. When Vladdy is on, he changes the complexion of the offense.
Until that happens, either next week or next season, the fans will continue to flip-flop between loving him and hating him.
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