General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[connorp]

Lourdes f***ing sucks. He's a 1.5-2 WAR corner outfield. He's an overrated player who has ALWAYS been completely replaceable. IMO, he shouldn't be mentioned as someone who had any type of major impact on this team. Teo was an impact player for the Jays.

 

Whether or not that trade was a “net win” for the Jays, or whether signing IKF was a “net win” for War/dollars, isn’t really relevant. It’s a decisive move the team made for what they thought was going to take the team to the next level and it was wrong.

 

They’ve come off that philosophy recently this season and let’s hope it stays that way. I think that was the point of Stangs post

[Krylian]

No because CWS and OAK can't be top 10 again. New rules

 

Damn. Wasn't even aware of that. Do they get automatically bumped down to 11 and 12?

[MikeM3]

Damn. Wasn't even aware of that. Do they get automatically bumped down to 11 and 12?

 

All I know is they can't pick better than 10th. I think they go straight to 10th and 11th with no lottery balls while the teams around them get at least like 1% at 1st overall.

[L54]

Tank for Player X

[Krylian]

Tank for Player X

 

Better than try and still suck for player Y.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Unless someone knocks their socks off, I don't see Vlad or Bo getting traded, especially at the TDL.

 

Kikuchi, Jansen, KK, Yimi, Richards and Turner should all be dealt for every single prospect lotto ticket they can get.

[Omar]

Any volunteers for the GDT tonight?

 

[BigCecil]

If you want a treat and distraction from the current malaise around our team give Jays Talk Plus with Blake Murphy a listen on the Orlando Hudson interview today.

 

He talks about being a black young man from the Southern USA coming to Medicine Hat, Alberta to play and what it was like.

 

Then he talks about coming to TOR and the melting pot there. And what his family thought of it. They had never seen anything like it.

 

Pretty cool insights.

[Jonn]

If you want a treat and distraction from the current malaise around our team give Jays Talk Plus with Blake Murphy a listen on the Orlando Hudson interview today.

 

He talks about being a black young man from the Southern USA coming to Medicine Hat, Alberta to play and what it was like.

 

Then he talks about coming to TOR and the melting pot there. And what his family thought of it. They had never seen anything like it.

 

Pretty cool insights.

 

Feel like Toronto is dramatically different now than it was when Orlando Hudson played for the Blue Jays. Barely even recognizable and it’s sad.

[Carlos Danger]

If you want a treat and distraction from the current malaise around our team give Jays Talk Plus with Blake Murphy a listen on the Orlando Hudson interview today.

 

He talks about being a black young man from the Southern USA coming to Medicine Hat, Alberta to play and what it was like.

 

Then he talks about coming to TOR and the melting pot there. And what his family thought of it. They had never seen anything like it.

 

Pretty cool insights.

 

Yea, and talks about a team that had Micheal Young, Chris Carpenter and what could have been… Of course 20/20 hindsight…

 

But a cool thought..

[Brownie19]

Feel like Toronto is dramatically different now than it was when Orlando Hudson played for the Blue Jays. Barely even recognizable and it’s sad.

 

You don't think it's a melting pot anymore?

[BCZ]

Someone else prob commented on this but has Vlad hit 3 bombs since he cut his hair off?

[BCZ]

What's up with Danny Jansen? What a rut he's in at the plate.

 

f***in guy does this... makes you think he's a super star out of the gates and then proceeds to become dead weight.

[Terminator]

What's up with Danny Jansen? What a rut he's in at the plate.

 

4 out of Kikuchi's last 6 starts have been trash too. Just in time for the trade deadline.

[Governator]

f***in guy does this... makes you think he's a super star out of the gates and then proceeds to become dead weight.

 

 

Of all the issues the Jays have, Jansen is the least of their worries. With a small slump he's still on pace for over 2WAR while splitting a season like he always does. It's Kirk that's holding back the position, although I think we still project as top 5 WAR from our catchers in the league.

[AMS528]

Having glanced at Vlad's statcast page every couple of weeks to see how it's going, it's now at maybe it's most ridiculous point. His statcast page says he's really expected to hit as well as Freddie Freeman or Bryce Harper, which we know he is not and his launch angle sweet spot percentage is the likely culprit which we also know.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vladimir-guerrero-jr-665489?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

But it still really is something to look at that page and see all that bright red. Somewhere inside Vladdy is a HOF hitter being wasted because of a single adjustment he can't seem to make. He has to be one of the most anomalous hitters of all time.

 

Honestly his statcast page seems to show that if he was just marginally able to fix the launch angle he'd be Juan Soto who is like Vladdy has great numbers across the board but is middling with the launch angle (whereas Vladdy is in the bottom quarter).

[Terminator]

3 homers in his last 4 games including the longest he's ever hit. Hopefully the power keeps up.

[AMS528]

3 homers in his last 4 games including the longest he's ever hit. Hopefully the power keeps up.

 

There's just been too many other stretches of being hot, months here and there of hitting for power, before reverting back for me to be hopeful about it. I know it's possible, but I've adjusted the likelihood of that happening while he's with the Jays down to a fairly small percentage chance.

 

I think if we don't keep him the odds of him figuring out increase, not even because of the Jays hitting coaches (though I think that's a cause), but because of course he figures it out after leaving.

[Brownie19]

3 homers in his last 4 games including the longest he's ever hit. Hopefully the power keeps up.

 

and yet his ISO is still below Cedric Mullins this year. Mullins has a 70 wRC+

[max silver]

and yet his ISO is still below Cedric Mullins this year. Mullins has a 70 wRC+

 

Mullins has been s*** so I have no idea why you would compare him to Vlad aside from your obvious hatred of the guy. Vlad has been settling into more of a Yelich type of offensive output this season. He's been hitting the tar out of the ball over recent months and has 5 home runs in June so hopefully it's a sign of things to come and not a short home run spurt.

[Stangstag]

4 out of Kikuchi's last 6 starts have been trash too. Just in time for the trade deadline.

 

Jansen slumping

Kikuchi not as sharp

Romano injured

Yimi injured

 

 

Thats a good chunk of our trade pieces that just went up in flames/lowered their value significantly

 

IDK if we should even bother with the "retooling" thing anymore

[Terminator]

Jansen slumping

Kikuchi not as sharp

Romano injured

Yimi injured

 

 

Thats a good chunk of our trade pieces that just went up in flames/lowered their value significantly

 

IDK if we should even bother with the "retooling" thing anymore

 

Agreed. The 7 game losing streak has been so detrimental that the argument to buy or sell is now crystal clear. Now it's a matter of whether we re-tool or rebuild.

[Krylian]

Agreed. The 7 game losing streak has been so detrimental that the argument to buy or sell is now crystal clear. Now it's a matter of whether we re-tool or rebuild.

 

Are you confident in the core group? If so, retool. If not, you really have to go scorched earth.

[John_Havok]

3 homers in his last 4 games including the longest he's ever hit. Hopefully the power keeps up.

 

2 of them on fastballs, not just hanging garbage. That's a good sign.... hopefully.

[glory]

The only reason to keep the core group (aside from wanting to sell tickets in hopes that the team contends) is if you believe a new hitting coach/philosophy/preparation can make the existing talent better. Maybe that could work, maybe it won't. It's a risk with only a year of control left on Vlad/Bo. Honestly, that Mattingly quote about "damage is a scary word" has been brought up before, but the followup to that was even scarier:

 

“I don’t really see us as a huge power club. But we do have a chance for, I think, four or five guys hitting 20 or above. That would be good for us.”

 

They literally have a 25 year old with an elite statcast page that hit 80 home runs in 2021-22, but as soon as Donnie came on board, now he maybe, possibly, if he's lucky, could get to 20 or above. Even though he drills everything into the ground at an even higher rate than before, and his ability to hit a 4SFB suddenly disappeared out of thin air. Something isn't right. So between that and Bo having a down year, you could certainly argue that bringing them back for one more try with a new coaching staff would be more logical than having Atkins trade them for 42 years of control on the most mid prospects imaginable.

[AMS528]

I really would rather not trade Vlad, figure out a mildly reasonable extension and give various new coaches the chance to figure it out because literally nothing would be worse than him figuring it out elsewhere. If Bo is great elsewhere that's fine we saw him do it here as well, if Vlad is great elsewhere kill me cause we mismanaged a potentially elite bat.

 

There's just been too many other stretches of being hot, months here and there of hitting for power, before reverting back for me to be hopeful about it. I know it's possible, but I've adjusted the likelihood of that happening while he's with the Jays down to a fairly small percentage chance.

 

I think if we don't keep him the odds of him figuring out increase, not even because of the Jays hitting coaches (though I think that's a cause), but because of course he figures it out after leaving.

 

As a comparison Horwitz's statcast page shows a much lower exit velo, hard hit percentage and he doesn't have elite bat speed but he barrels everything and pairs that with getting everything into the launch angle sweet spot and boom his numbers have been great. He won't maintain them, but it's clear what makes the difference.

[Masterbather]

Jansen slumping

Kikuchi not as sharp

Romano injured

Yimi injured

 

 

Thats a good chunk of our trade pieces that just went up in flames/lowered their value significantly

 

IDK if we should even bother with the "retooling" thing anymore

 

Nuclear option.

 

f***ing team is cursed this year.

[Brownie19]

Mullins has been s*** so I have no idea why you would compare him to Vlad aside from your obvious hatred of the guy. Vlad has been settling into more of a Yelich type of offensive output this season. He's been hitting the tar out of the ball over recent months and has 5 home runs in June so hopefully it's a sign of things to come and not a short home run spurt.

 

I'm just saying that even after his recent power surge, his ISO is still worse than Cedric Mullins, who's 115 lbs soaking wet and has a 70 wRC+. Vlad is the most frustrating sports talent I've ever seen (and yes, I do not like him).

[max silver]

I really would rather not trade Vlad, figure out a mildly reasonable extension and give various new coaches the chance to figure it out because literally nothing would be worse than him figuring it out elsewhere. If Bo is great elsewhere that's fine we saw him do it here as well, if Vlad is great elsewhere kill me cause we mismanaged a potentially elite bat.

 

 

 

As a comparison Horwitz's statcast page shows a much lower exit velo, hard hit percentage and he doesn't have elite bat speed but he barrels everything and pairs that with getting everything into the launch angle sweet spot and boom his numbers have been great. He won't maintain them, but it's clear what makes the difference.

 

I sometimes wonder if Vlad didn't swing quite as hard if it would help him find the sweet spot with more frequency.

[The_DH]

If the Jays were a stock, you would have sold long ago.

 

And it’s not just the offence. It’s pitching, too.

 

Last season, the Blue Jays had the second-best earned run average in the AL. Now they’re 11th. They gave up the seventh-most home runs, now only one team is worse than them.

 

Last season, they were second in strikeouts. This year, 13th.

 

Last season’s bullpen had an earned run average that ranked fifth-best. This year, it’s 12th, having given up the most home runs after being ninth-best last year.

 

It’s hard to find a category of any kind that gives promise to this team, at this time, or next year, or the year after that — which is what the general manager’s job is all about.

 

He is about today, tomorrow, next week and next year. You make a mistake, the great Pat Gillick told me many times, you fix the mistake. Everyone makes them. The best GMs find ways around them.

 

Atkins has been on the job since 2016, when he inherited a playoff team from Anthopoulos. Putting that first season aside, the Blue Jays have been 555-555 in Atkins’ real time as GM. Those are the kind of numbers that got Ash and Ricciardi dismissed.

 

Yes, the Jays won 91-92-and-89 games in recent seasons — impressive on the wins scale — but in each those years, they won zero playoff games.

 

Zero.

 

In his time with the Blue Jays, not giving him credit for the 2016 team, Atkins’ Blue Jays have not won a single playoff game.

 

The Rays have won 16 in that time. The Yankees have won 21. The Red Sox 18. Explain that one, Ed Rogers. You too, Mark Shapiro.

 

That’s your American League East. And that’s not including the suddenly overwhelming Baltimore Orioles.

 

Atkins fired manager Charlie Montoyo in 2022 with a record of 46-42 because he didn’t like the way the Jays were playing. And it was the right call at the time.’

 

John Gibbons got fired the first time mid-season with a 35-39 record. Jimy Williams had the worst mark in 1989 with a 12-24 record. And Carlos Tosca was let go as manager when the Jays were 47-64 in 2004. No complaints about any of those decisions.

 

The Jays are 35-43 on Tuesday afternoon, which isn’t terrible, but it is in their division. They are 16 games and 160 runs behind the Yankees, who finished seven games behind behind the Jays last season. They are 14 games and 161 runs behind the Orioles.

 

They are 7.5 games out of the final wild-card spot — but with six teams ahead of them that makes it an impossible climb.

 

Blue Jays officially hit rock bottom following meltdown in Beantown in loss to Red Sox

Spencer Horwitz's two homers not enough as Blue Jays swept in back-to-back series

They are, in a word, nowhere.

 

And the trade deadline is approaching. If Atkins turned last year’s 89-win team into this, why should he be rewarded or even allowed to make deals that will shape the Jays future?

 

Why not move on right now?

 

The time is right if the season isn’t. The time to say goodbye to Ross Atkins was yesterday.

 

ssimmons@postmedia.com

 

twitter.com/simmonssteve