Best-Case Scenario: What Could a Healthy Blue Jays Postseason Roster Look Like?

The Blue Jays are in the midst of a tight battle for the final Wild Card spot. They trail the Cleveland Guardians, who have the spot, by one game, while the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles are close behind. The last 15 games will be a fight, although the Blue Jays have one of the easier remaining schedules in the league. They also have an advantage with a series against the Rangers and two against the Orioles. 

However, the Blue Jays just wasted an optimal chance to gain ground by losing two of three games to the Athletics, who are 59-88. Both losses came on days that the Guardians lost as well, so the Jays didn't lose ground, but they blew a chance to take the driver’s seat. 

The team has been plagued by injuries all season. The injured list currently includes 13 players (nine pitchers). There's light at the end of the tunnel, though. If the team earns a postseason berth, reinforcements could be on the way. Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber may return by the end of September, and Anthony Santander has started a rehab assignment.

Cody Ponce, who tore his ACL in his first start, was expected to miss the rest of the season, but his recovery could have him healthy enough to make a late October return. Jameson Taillon returned to the 15-day injured list on September 5 with right elbow inflammation. It's his second IL stint since being traded to Toronto on August 2, so how he recovers will determine if his season is over or if he can make a postseason return.

Blue Jays Ideal Postseason Roster: The Pitching Staff

Roster Decision

• Yesavage: In
• Arrighetti: Out

In an ideal, healthy world, if the Blue Jays can find their way into the postseason, what could their roster look like? On the pitching staff, Yesavage would join Dylan Cease and José Soriano to form a three-man rotation for the Wild Card round. Bieber and Max Scherzer would move to the bullpen or be left off the roster. Spencer Arrighetti is an obvious choice to leave off the postseason roster. He's struggled since being acquired at the trade deadline, posting an 8.04 ERA over 15 2/3 innings.

Roster Decision

• Bieber: In
• Lorenzen: Out

Bieber has made only 11 starts this year after missing the first 78 games of the season due to elbow inflammation. He also returned to the injured list on August 25 after suffering a teres major injury. His limited availability this season makes a bullpen role the best fit. The righty is expected to be a week and a half behind Yesavage's timeline, according to MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson. So, Bieber won’t have as much time to get stretched out. 

Removing swingman Michael Lorenzen from the roster would make space for Toronto to reinstate Bieber. 

Roster Decision

• Scherzer: Stays In
• Tiedemann: Out

Scherzer has pitched better since the All-Star break, posting a 3.76 ERA, compared to a 10.23 first-half ERA. He has also posted a 20 percent strikeout rate and held batters to a .204 batting average, compared to first-half figures of 13.7 percent and .303, respectively. Scherzer’s fiery personality could be infectious for a team taking on the No. 3 seed in a short postseason series.

Scherzer is already on the active roster, but rosters expanded from 26 to 28 players in September, meaning another pitcher would still need to be removed to keep Scherzer around and get down to 13 arms.

The final postseason roster decision comes down to Paul Sewald, Brendon Little, and Ricky Tiedemann, and that decision will be based on who the Blue Jays face. However, they wouldn’t need four left-handed relievers – including Little, Tiedemann, Mason Fluharty and Joe Mantiply – for a three-game series.

Considering that, I’d leave Tiedemann off the roster. He’s pitched well in his brief MLB debut, but I’d prefer a pitcher with experience in the postseason. Little was awful to start the season, posting a 27.00 ERA over 4 2/3 innings, which led to him being sent down to Triple-A Buffalo on April 5, where he spent the next three months. 

The lefty did get recalled for a day on June 19, but after allowing four earned runs in an inning of work, he was demoted back to Buffalo the next day. Whatever tweaks Little made have paid off, as he’s only allowed an earned run in four of his 19 appearances since being recalled again on July 20. He's also held teams to just one run in three of those four outings, posting a 2.70 ERA in the second half of the season.

I'd leave Taillon off of the postseason roster to give him more time to recover. The bullpen is good enough that the righty isn't a "must-have" addition.

The 13 pitchers who’d make this best-case-scenario postseason roster would be:

• Cease
• Soriano
• Yesavage
• Scherzer
• Bieber
• Louis Varland
• Tyler Rogers
• Braydon Fisher
• Spencer Miles
• Fluharty
• Mantiply
• Little
• Sewald

Blue Jays Ideal Postseason Roster: The Position Players

Roster Decision

• Santander: In
• Keys: Out

The offense will look similar in the postseason, except if Santander can return. As a switch-hitter, he’d likely replace Jesús Sánchez in the batting order, who has had struggles defensively this season. Santander could go to right field because of his strong arm, and Nathan Lukes would shift to left. However, the Blue Jays might also choose to put less strain on Santander’s body and have him DH, since he’s missed the entire season after undergoing shoulder labrum surgery in March. 

George Springer has DH-ed in 105 of the 107 games he’s played in this season, playing left field in the other two. It isn’t ideal having Springer in left field, but if that’s the best way to keep Santander healthy through the postseason, then that’s what the Blue Jays need to do. 

Last season, Santander returned in late September after missing 100 games with shoulder inflammation. However, his return was short-lived: he was removed from the roster before Game 4 of the ALCS because of a back injury, ending his season. If he returns, he should replace Sean Keys on the active roster. Santander would also need to be re-added to the 40-man roster, but who to remove there is a separate discussion.

The Final Roster Decision

The last player to remove to get to 13 hitters would come down to Charles McAdoo or Josh Smith. I’d keep Smith, as he gives the Blue Jays more MLB experience, and he's played every position besides catcher over his five-year career. Smith struggled at the plate with the Texas Rangers this season, posting a .571 OPS over 154 plate appearances. He’s turned it around in 50 plate appearances with the Blue Jays (1.025 OPS), though. 

If the opposing team has quite a few southpaws in the bullpen, then McAdoo makes sense to have another right-handed bat off the bench. However, Brandon Valenzuela as a switch-hitter gives Toronto the luxury of not needing a set number of left- or right-handed bats on the bench. If he pinch-hits, then you lose your backup catcher for the remainder of the game, though.

The 13 batters who’d make this best-case-scenario postseason roster would be:

• Brett Bateman
• Springer
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
• Alejandro Kirk
• Lukes
• Kazuma Okamoto
• Andrés Giménez
• Ernie Clement
• Myles Straw
• Sánchez
• Santander
• Smith
• Valenzuela

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