Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[max silver]

This team can compete for a ring next year and should. Sure I want a competitive sustainable squad. Also don’t want to chase the perennial prospect carrot. For the right deal I’d give my left nut for Ramirez for the next 2 seasons.

 

I seriously think a balance needs to be achieved. Going all in and emptying out the farm system leads to a boom/bust cycle that really goes against the stated goal of sustained competitiveness year in and year out.

 

The club really only has 2 remaining elite prospects in the minor league system at this point. This isn't to say that nobody else in the organization will be able to reach the same type of heights eventually, but shipping out these prospects in exchange for a short term competitive window is very short sighted and reeks of desperation. This team is going to become very expensive pretty soon as Teoscar is going to get expensive through arbitration, Vlad has a chance to break arbitration records as he goes through the system, Berrios only has one year of remaining control and will be in line for a big raise etc. etc. If there are no inexpensive replacements available to replace aging expensive veterans eventually this will catch up to the organization and the on field results will predictably suffer.

 

The Dodgers are the model to follow in my view, you can see that they make their truly elite prospects off limits in trade talks, but despite this have had no issues with putting together an elite team with a healthy farm system. Rogers allowing for a similar payroll is most likely not going to happen, but with the size of the Jays market they should easily be able to spend up to the luxury tax once full crowds return and the club morphs into the yearly contender it is expected to be.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I know we have Bo at SS, but I still reaaaaaaally hope the Jays can get their hooks into Correa somehow.

 

Would make the money tight when they try to extend core pieces in the future, but still better than giving up the assets it would take to get Ramirez.

 

Since the Jays already have Berrios, Manoah, Ryu at the top end and Stripling, Pearson and Hatch for depth, I wonder if they stay away from the big, longer term pitching contracts this off season and go dumpster diving to find the next "Ray" or "Matz" instead? I imagine Pete Walker and the FO have a long list of SP's they think they should target and fix.

[itaos]

Is Rodon for real? What is his worth? 6 x $25 million? More?

 

Big pass on Rodon. He's had shoulder surgery and multiple elbow and shoulder IL visits.

Edited October 10, 2021 by itaos

[Olerud363]

Extremely disagree with this, its exactly what caused the rebuild during 2017-2019.

 

Athopoulis cared only about the short term and that got us exactly 0 World Series appearances and 3 years of s***** teams after.

 

You have to play the long game. Field a competitive team every year and hope you run into a WS title.

 

One thing that caused the 2017/2018 collapse was Donaldson/Tulo/Travis/Aaron Sanchez/Osuna and Stroman collapsing from 20+ WAR in 2016 to like 5 in by 2018.

 

Tulo/Donaldson onlly had 1 healthy year together, while Bautista/EE had several good years together ...

 

Ironically, despite the fact 2017 and 2018 were losing seasons, the only year they went into it expecting to lose was 2019. I think the payroll was still very high 2018. Donaldson and Tulo played like 40 games combined, Sanchez/Stroman were garbage that year. Travis injured the entire year I believe. Osuna domestic abuse issue. In an alternative Universe the team could have had a sustained run, where Donaldson/Tulo handed off to Bo/Vlad.

[Dick_Pole]

I know I said my focus is on the extreme short term, but I don't see how NOT offering $600 million to Guerrero and Bichette is considered short term thinking. This team has a ton of payroll flexibility and some prospect capital. Those two guys are probably two of the most valuable trade assets in the game. If you give them long term contracts they go from that to untradeable unless the Jays pay a chunk of the salary.

 

Focus on winning the next 2-3 seasons. Then depending on how things go, you can try to sign them at a later date or trade them for a decent haul. As for prospects, this team doesn't need a lot of prospects right now. Barring injury, suckage or trade, every position except 2B and 3B is locked up with good to great players for the next three years. And we don't know what's going to happen with Semien and Biggio. By the time the need arises for replacements, the team will have had three drafts to replenish the system plus any players coming back in trades.

[RobinThicc]

"their client’s (Berrios) extension should be worth well over $100MM, and likely closer to $120MM in order to keep him away from free agency."

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/extension-candidate-jose-berrios.html

[The Cats Ass]

"their client’s (Berrios) extension should be worth well over $100MM, and likely closer to $120MM in order to keep him away from free agency."

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/extension-candidate-jose-berrios.html

 

I would do that. Similar to Wheeler’s but Berrios will be 2 years younger. 120 million guaranteed over 5 years, but have 5 million of it as a buyout on a 6th year team option. Option worth 30 million. So it ends up being 5/120 or 6/145.

[TwistedLogic]

MLBTR released their arbitration projections! No idea how they see Vladdy getting such a small amount but hell, I'll take it.

 

Blue Jays (12)

 

Ross Stripling – $4.4MM

Jose Berrios – $10.9MM

Jacob Barnes – $1.2MM

Teoscar Hernandez – $10.0MM

Adam Cimber – $1.5MM

Trevor Richards – $1.1MM

Ryan Borucki – $800K

Danny Jansen – $1.5MM

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – $7.9MM

Tim Mayza – $1.2MM

Trent Thornton – $900K

Cavan Biggio – $1.7MM

[glory]

Vlad is probably going to beat Bellinger's Arb1 amount after 2019. No chance he gets as little as MLBTR is speculating.

[Terminator]

MLBTR released their arbitration projections! No idea how they see Vladdy getting such a small amount but hell, I'll take it.

 

Blue Jays (12)

 

Ross Stripling – $4.4MM

Jose Berrios – $10.9MM

Jacob Barnes – $1.2MM

Teoscar Hernandez – $10.0MM

Adam Cimber – $1.5MM

Trevor Richards – $1.1MM

Ryan Borucki – $800K

Danny Jansen – $1.5MM

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – $7.9MM

Tim Mayza – $1.2MM

Trent Thornton – $900K

Cavan Biggio – $1.7MM

 

Barnes is an easy non-tender. Maybe Thornton as well? Stripling wouldn't shock me although I'd probably bring him back as decent long men/starters can be hard to get in FA as they can usually find places where they can definitely be starters.

 

The rest seem like easy decision to keep.

[InsideThePark]

Vladdy at 7.9 million is definitely a little bit low, but I would not be surprised if he came in around 10 rather than the higher estimates I have seen here. Even if we ignore than Donaldson comp because Vlad's traditional stats are better he's right around Bellinger's traditional stats and Bellinger played a more valuable position and played it better defensively. I don't see any case based on any data traditional or not that puts Vlad above Bellinger. I guess if Vlad goes higher and says Bellinger is the perfect offensive comp and cites inflation while the Jays lowball so Vlad wins the arbitration case maybe he could get a bit more but I see him coming in just under way more realistic.

[John_Havok]

Vlad is probably going to beat Bellinger's Arb1 amount after 2019. No chance he gets as little as MLBTR is speculating.

 

Maybe that’s a low, but gotta remember Vlad was less than thrilling in years 1 and 2. Bellinger’s 3 seasons prior to arbitration he’d already hit 111 HR and 288 RBI, arbitration awards love counting stats and they don’t just consider the 1 year immediately prior to arbitration, but all of them. Even prorating Vlad #s in seasons 1 and 2 to full seasons his numbers are noticeably lower than Bellinger’s.

 

Vlad was a monster his 3rd year, after being practically a nothing burger in years 1 and 2. Bellinger was a monster in year 3 after being all star level in year 1 and 2. Not to mention he was the NL MVP in year 3 and ROY in year 1.

[InsideThePark]

With those estimates we'd be around 110 million with this roster of 21

 

Jansen, Vlad, Biggio, Bo, _____, Teo, Springer, Gurriel, _____

Espinal, Grichuk, Kirk, _____

_____, Berrios, Manoah, Ryu, Pearson

Romano, Mayza, Cimber, Richards, Stripling, Merryweather, Borucki, _____

[TwistedLogic]

I've plugged in the MLBTR arbitration projections, league min salaries and the guaranteed contracts for next year and I've filled the roster out with in-house placeholders for the time being.

 

The Blue Jays roster for 2022 is currently projected at $114.3M.

 

[TwistedLogic]

Revisiting my ******** fantasy offseason plan with those numbers plugged in bumps the payroll up by $65M.

 

That plan involves trading Cavan Biggio, Nate Pearson, Orelvis Martinez and Otto Lopez for Jose Ramirez and Emmanual Clase (I don't actually think the Indians would realistically include Clase in this deal but it's fun to dream), signing Scherzer to 28Mx3, signing Marte to 18Mx3 and signing Syndergaard to 20Mx1. I also bring back Kirby Yates and dump Grichuk.

 

I've filled the rest of the roster out with Groshans at 2B and Taylor (PR) and Capra (PH) from the Fisher Cats on the bench, but in any real-world scenario where this roster could actually be assembled, those positions would be determined in Spring Training.

 

The payroll comes in at 180M and the roster looks like this:

 

[Stangstag]

Revisiting my ******** fantasy offseason plan with those numbers plugged in bumps the payroll up by $65M.

 

That plan involves trading Cavan Biggio, Nate Pearson, Orelvis Martinez and Otto Lopez for Jose Ramirez and Emmanual Clase (I don't actually think the Indians would realistically include Clase in this deal but it's fun to dream), signing Scherzer to 28Mx3, signing Marte to 18Mx3 and signing Syndergaard to 20Mx1. I also bring back Kirby Yates and dump Grichuk.

 

I've filled the rest of the roster out with Groshans at 2B and Taylor (PR) and Capra (PH) from the Fisher Cats on the bench, but in any real-world scenario where this roster could actually be assembled, those positions would be determined in Spring Training.

 

The payroll comes in at 180M and the roster looks like this:

 

 

Time to wake up

[TwistedLogic]

Time to wake up

 

Hell nah. Not until pitchers and catchers report.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Should the Jays go after Rasiel Iglesias?

 

Or is that too risky pouring that much money into one pen arm? He's an elite closer though, and it'd be nice to have some insurance on that front.

 

Probably going cost what...$15 million per on a multi year deal?

 

Sign Iglesias, roll the dice on Yates again and between those two, Romano, Mayza and Merryweather you are building a potentially elite collection of high leverage bat missers.

[Spanky99]

Should the Jays go after Rasiel Iglesias?

 

Or is that too risky pouring that much money into one pen arm? He's an elite closer though, and it'd be nice to have some insurance on that front.

 

Probably going cost what...$15 million per on a multi year deal?

 

Sign Iglesias, roll the dice on Yates again and between those two, Romano, Mayza and Merryweather you are building a potentially elite collection of high leverage bat missers.

 

Knock 5 million off and that'd be cool. Dare to dream.

[Stangstag]

Should the Jays go after Rasiel Iglesias?

 

Or is that too risky pouring that much money into one pen arm? He's an elite closer though, and it'd be nice to have some insurance on that front.

 

Probably going cost what...$15 million per on a multi year deal?

 

Sign Iglesias, roll the dice on Yates again and between those two, Romano, Mayza and Merryweather you are building a potentially elite collection of high leverage bat missers.

 

I’d forget about Yates unless he wants to sign for like 2 mil.

 

Im definitely onboard with going after Iglesias. He’s been pretty consistent over his career minus 1 bad year

[Eat My Shatkins]

I’d forget about Yates unless he wants to sign for like 2 mil.

 

Im definitely onboard with going after Iglesias. He’s been pretty consistent over his career minus 1 bad year

 

Yeah, Yates has to come cheap for sure. Sure as hell don't want to have to rely on him, just try to get him on a bargain and if he works out then it's just a bonus.

[gruber92]

Dumping Grichuk somehow and signing Starling Marte is probably a priority plus event imo. That alone would keep the offence at its current plateau without losing out on team overall defence in the likely event of Semien leaving. If Biggio is used in a trade, Espinal is the logical choice to start at 2B, Groshans' bat is not MLB ready yet. Signing Iglesias is also high priority, maybe he'll sign for a shorter term - higher annual like 2/35. Enough with trying to be cute with the pen, we need stability and another high leverage arm right out of the gate next season. Wins in April and May are just as important as in September and hopefully Shatkins comes to this realization.

[WryNGinger]

Is there a scenario where they look at trading Berrios if they are out of the playoff picture close to the deadline next year? Do they keep him regardless and take the pick if he signs elsewhere? (Yes I am actually asking, I expect that if they are within 5-8 games of a wildcard spot they keep him) Who else on the roster is in a similar decision making spot?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Is there a scenario where they look at trading Berrios if they are out of the playoff picture close to the deadline next year? Do they keep him regardless and take the pick if he signs elsewhere? (Yes I am actually asking, I expect that if they are within 5-8 games of a wildcard spot they keep him) Who else on the roster is in a similar decision making spot?

 

Hopefully they don't have to find out because they get him signed to a long term extension this off season. Have to pay the man when you give up two high end prospects to get him.

[keggy]

Hopefully they don't have to find out because they get him signed to a long term extension this off season. Have to pay the man when you give up two high end prospects to get him.

 

We should pursue Berrios because he's a good pitcher. The prospects we lost are a sunk cost and should have no bearing on the decision making.

[Eat My Shatkins]

We should pursue Berrios because he's a good pitcher. The prospects we lost are a sunk cost and should have no bearing on the decision making.

 

Lol. Well yeah, the reason they gave up those prospects to get him was because he's a good pitcher. Both go hand in hand. Still young, talented and durable. They've got to get him signed this off season.

[max silver]

Lol. Well yeah, the reason they gave up those prospects to get him was because he's a good pitcher. Both go hand in hand. Still young, talented and durable. They've got to get him signed this off season.

 

I don't have a lot of concern over this not getting done. The front office would have been in contact with his agent to get a feeling for what kind of contract would be required to get Berrios inked to an extension before making this trade in the first place.

[RobinThicc]

Wouldnt that be tampering?

 

Regardless, they knew/know how much it will take to get it done and they should get it donem

[gruber92]

What are we looking at in Berrios extension numbers?

 

5/125?

[WryNGinger]

Hopefully they don't have to find out because they get him signed to a long term extension this off season. Have to pay the man when you give up two high end prospects to get him.

 

Yes hopefully, but you didn't answer my question...lol. It is going to be along off-season. What position do they need to be in when they decide to keep him vs look to get value back?