Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Eat My Shatkins]

Yes hopefully, but you didn't answer my question...lol. It is going to be along off-season. What position do they need to be in when they decide to keep him vs look to get value back?

 

Well they were 4 games above .500 and 5 games out of a wild card spot this year and still bought, so definitely more than that to be sellers I guess.

 

If they're more than 5 games out of a wild card by the deadline next season they will have had to have had a terrible off season and/or a crap ton of things go wrong during the season.

 

Hopefully we don't have to find out the answer to your question

[Eat My Shatkins]

Rasiel Iglesias / 2.8 WAR / 13.2 K/9

Hector Neris / 1.2 WAR / 11.4 K/9

Yimi Garcia / 0.5 WAR / 9.4 K/9

Mychal Givens / 1.5 WAR / 9.5 K/9

Collin Mchugh / 1.9 WAR / 10.9 K/9

Kendall Graveman / 2.1 WAR / 9.8 K/9

Ryan Tepera / 1.8 WAR / 10.9 K/9

 

 

Just a few of the intriguing relievers on the FA market this off season.

 

Hopefully leave some payroll room to pick up a couple of these types.

[The Cats Ass]

Should the Jays go after Rasiel Iglesias?

 

Or is that too risky pouring that much money into one pen arm? He's an elite closer though, and it'd be nice to have some insurance on that front.

 

Probably going cost what...$15 million per on a multi year deal?

 

Sign Iglesias, roll the dice on Yates again and between those two, Romano, Mayza and Merryweather you are building a potentially elite collection of high leverage bat missers.

 

100% against that. Relievers are pumpkins. Go after a couple of the guys just under him. They'll be cheaper and have just as good a chance as being as good. Never overpay for a "closer", get the setup guys and firemen.

[The Cats Ass]

I’d forget about Yates unless he wants to sign for like 2 mil.

 

Im definitely onboard with going after Iglesias. He’s been pretty consistent over his career minus 1 bad year

 

Know who else was consistent? Brad Hand.

[saskjayfan]

What are we looking at in Berrios extension numbers?

 

5/125?

 

That's way too high given his body of work. 5 and 90 is more than sufficient for Berrios. If he wants to gamble on himself and he can repeat what he did last year, particularly his time with the Jays, he could get more.

[Stangstag]

Know who else was consistent? Brad Hand.

 

True I guess, but we’re pretty sure he got hit hard by the sticky ban.

 

Front office should be checking spin rates and effectiveness before and after the sticky ban on any relievers they’re thinking about signing. Hopefully they learn from the Hand mistake

[Spanky99]

That's way too high given his body of work. 5 and 90 is more than sufficient for Berrios. If he wants to gamble on himself and he can repeat what he did last year, particularly his time with the Jays, he could get more.

 

As TCA mentioned, he'll likely get somewhere near what Wheeler received and he's two years younger, gruber isn't far off.

[glory]

That's way too high given his body of work. 5 and 90 is more than sufficient for Berrios. If he wants to gamble on himself and he can repeat what he did last year, particularly his time with the Jays, he could get more.

 

A Berrios extension will likely be closer to the 5/125 suggested than 5/90. The Jays have no leverage. They can't afford to lose him after next season, and Berrios has said he's looking forward to maximizing money in free agency. He has no reason to sign early unless he's paid similar to that of a free agent. If an extension gets done, then it's probably going to be for a dollar amount that many here will dislike at first glance.

[Spanky99]

A Berrios extension will likely be closer to the 5/125 suggested than 5/90. The Jays have no leverage. They can't afford to lose him after next season, and Berrios has said he's looking forward to maximizing money in free agency. He has no reason to sign early unless he's paid similar to that of a free agent. If an extension gets done, then it's probably going to be for a dollar amount that many here will dislike at first glance.

 

Yeah he did for reference...

 

It should be noted that Berrios has already been vocal about his desire to test free agency. “[i will have been] waiting six years, almost seven, to get where every player wants to be — a free agent, able to maximize our value….We are in a good position, and we’ll see what the best deal is going to be,” Berrios told The Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Phil Miller back in July. Berrios turned down extension offers from the Twins in the past and also went to an arbitration hearing with the team to determine his 2020 salary.

 

I agree it'll be somewhere near 5/125 for sure, I'd be happy with any savings under that though.

[Jimcanuck]

A Berrios extension will likely be closer to the 5/125 suggested than 5/90. The Jays have no leverage. They can't afford to lose him after next season, and Berrios has said he's looking forward to maximizing money in free agency. He has no reason to sign early unless he's paid similar to that of a free agent. If an extension gets done, then it's probably going to be for a dollar amount that many here will dislike at first glance.

 

The Jays have leverage, being that if Berrios doesn't sign and gets hurt in 2022 season, his value gets f***ed.

 

Will be for something more than 5/100, but both sides will assess the risks and hopefully come to a reasonable agreement that would be somewhat less than what a healthy Berrios would get in free agency a year from now.

[Stangstag]

The Jays have leverage, being that if Berrios doesn't sign and gets hurt in 2022 season, his value gets f***ed.

 

Will be for something more than 5/100, but both sides will assess the risks and hopefully come to a reasonable agreement that would be somewhat less than what a healthy Berrios would get in free agency a year from now.

 

The Jays also have some leverage with the draft pick attached to Berrios once they give him the QO.... that's IF things don't change under the new CBA

[BigCecil]

Not sure if anyone else feels this way but the Braves advancing sans Acuna Jr and the BoSox beating the Rays is irking me more we didn’t take advantage of a CY, MVP ish seasons and lottery ticket winnings on Short term free agent signings. Once you are in and get on a roll anything can happen. We didn’t get in and should have. Frustrating.

[Stangstag]

Not sure if anyone else feels this way but the Braves advancing sans Acuna Jr and the BoSox beating the Rays is irking me more we didn’t take advantage of a CY, MVP ish seasons and lottery ticket winnings on Short term free agent signings. Once you are in and get on a roll anything can happen. We didn’t get in and should have. Frustrating.

 

Better to not dwell on things. Just prepare for another heartbreak next year if Charlie is still managing

[BigCecil]

Better to not dwell on things. Just prepare for another heartbreak next year if Charlie is still managing

 

Ya. I agree on not dwelling but developments making it tougher for me at least. Oh well. Next year and ya Charlie must go. But don’t think he will.

[Olerud363]

Not sure if anyone else feels this way but the Braves advancing sans Acuna Jr and the BoSox beating the Rays is irking me more we didn’t take advantage of a CY, MVP ish seasons and lottery ticket winnings on Short term free agent signings. Once you are in and get on a roll anything can happen. We didn’t get in and should have. Frustrating.

 

On the other hand it also shows you don't need to score 200 runs more than you give up and have an MVP, Cy Young, and 7 WAR lottery pick to win. And whos to say if Jays make the playoffs they are not the ones getting beat by a lesser team in a 5 game series?

 

Create a team that is projected to score 100 runs more than they give up, aim for 90 wins 5 years in a row and some year things will break right.

 

2021 Jays were a 100 win talent that won 91, I can't emphasize enough that 'the wins' Semien and Ray provided were wiped out by luck and bullpen, thus replacing half of Semien and Ray's wins, fixing the bullpen and having better luck will put them right back at 90-95 wins, and if they do that 3 or 4 years in a row good luck will hit one year.

[John_Havok]

On the other hand it also shows you don't need to score 200 runs more than you give up and have an MVP, Cy Young, and 7 WAR lottery pick to win. And whos to say if Jays make the playoffs they are not the ones getting beat by a lesser team in a 5 game series?

 

Create a team that is projected to score 100 runs more than they give up, aim for 90 wins 5 years in a row and some year things will break right.

 

2021 Jays were a 100 win talent that won 91, I can't emphasize enough that 'the wins' Semien and Ray provided were wiped out by luck and bullpen, thus replacing half of Semien and Ray's wins, fixing the bullpen and having better luck will put them right back at 90-95 wins, and if they do that 3 or 4 years in a row good luck will hit one year.

 

Couple of flaws in your logic here. The Jays were not projected at 100 wins, but they performed like a team that should have won 100 games. There were many players on the Jays that outperformed their projections substantially aside from Ray and Semien. In fact, looking at pre-season projections for nearly all position players, they almost all outperformed their projections or were within .5WAR down from the projections. Starting pitching almost universally outperformed projections, aside from Ryu. The pen was the pen, that's always gonna be volatile.

 

Does that mean we should expect the exact same next season with nearly every SP and position player? No.

[Stangstag]

On the other hand it also shows you don't need to score 200 runs more than you give up and have an MVP, Cy Young, and 7 WAR lottery pick to win. And whos to say if Jays make the playoffs they are not the ones getting beat by a lesser team in a 5 game series?

Create a team that is projected to score 100 runs more than they give up, aim for 90 wins 5 years in a row and some year things will break right.

 

2021 Jays were a 100 win talent that won 91, I can't emphasize enough that 'the wins' Semien and Ray provided were wiped out by luck and bullpen, thus replacing half of Semien and Ray's wins, fixing the bullpen and having better luck will put them right back at 90-95 wins, and if they do that 3 or 4 years in a row good luck will hit one year.

 

Yeah don't we always argue on here that the 2015 Jays were probably the best team in baseball that year and should have won? Instead they got bounced by the Royals and their SUPERSTAR leadoff hitter Alcides Escobar... and they ended up winning the WS against the Mets, arguably a better team.

 

Bottom line is you DONT need an MVP player to make the playoffs. You DONT need a Cy young candidate. You DONT need a crazy run differential.

 

You just need a solid team and for things to break right over the course of 162. And in the playoffs, just need a couple guys to hold a hot streak for a few weeks. (Daniel Murphy, Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce, Alcides Escobar, Madison Bumgarner, etc.)

[John_Havok]

Bottom line is you DONT need an MVP player to make the playoffs. You DONT need a Cy young candidate. You DONT need a crazy run differential.

 

You just need a solid team and for things to break right over the course of 162.

 

Maybe not in some divisions... but in the AL East, you damn sure need to plan on being really good. Not just solid. The goal of every team in the regular season should be to score as many runs more than the others as possible, not just 1 more.

[Ryu In My House]

What are the expected changes in MLB/CBA starting next year?

 

I hope we have a universal DH, more playoff spots and a new division/league alignments. I suspect the compensation pick/QOs may be scrapped, but I am not sure how they maintain "competitive" balance if that is done. MLB has to at least look like it's not playing favourites with the big teams that can spend money and get good ratings...

[connorp]

I’m a trying to think as a Jays fan if there’d be any more satisfaction on the season to be a WC1 or WC2 but lose the play in game. Basically like NYY this year. I don’t think there would be for me. And I’m just saying in hindsight knowing you lost. Feels same to me like you didn’t make it

 

Definitely playing a best of 5 would.

[Olerud363]

Couple of flaws in your logic here. The Jays were not projected at 100 wins, but they performed like a team that should have won 100 games. There were many players on the Jays that outperformed their projections substantially aside from Ray and Semien. In fact, looking at pre-season projections for nearly all position players, they almost all outperformed their projections or were within .5WAR down from the projections. Starting pitching almost universally outperformed projections, aside from Ryu. The pen was the pen, that's always gonna be volatile.

 

Does that mean we should expect the exact same next season with nearly every SP and position player? No.

 

The good seasons mean that while players like Vlad, Bo, Teoscar, Manaoh, and a couple others won't be projected to repeat, they will be projected to be way better in 2022 than they were projected in 2021.

 

And actually Bo and Gurriel should be projected to be about the same or a bit better, as he didn't even hit their lifetime rates. Though Bo not be projected for 160 games.

 

Have any projection systems been updated with 2021 Stats?

[Jimcanuck]

What are the expected changes in MLB/CBA starting next year?

 

I hope we have a universal DH, more playoff spots and a new division/league alignments. I suspect the compensation pick/QOs may be scrapped, but I am not sure how they maintain "competitive" balance if that is done. MLB has to at least look like it's not playing favourites with the big teams that can spend money and get good ratings...

 

It's going to be very difficult. The negotiations are not just with the players but with all 30 teams with quite variable revenue streams. And I don't have a lot of confidence in the MLB commish to lead this thing through.

 

Universal DH is a big change that is expected. Not a whole lot else game wise I expect, all other negotiations will relate to how the revenue pie gets shared, salary floors, luxury tax, etc etc

Edited October 13, 2021 by Jimcanuck

[John_Havok]

Have any projection systems been updated with 2021 Stats?

 

Not to my knowledge.

[Spanky99]

The good seasons mean that while players like Vlad, Bo, Teoscar, Manaoh, and a couple others won't be projected to repeat, they will be projected to be way better in 2022 than they were projected in 2021.

 

And actually Bo and Gurriel should be projected to be about the same or a bit better, as he didn't even hit their lifetime rates. Though Bo not be projected for 160 games.

 

Have any projection systems been updated with 2021 Stats?

 

Steamer 600 (update) gives you a rough estimate...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600u&team=0&lg=all&players=0

[John_Havok]

What are the expected changes in MLB/CBA starting next year?

 

I hope we have a universal DH, more playoff spots and a new division/league alignments. I suspect the compensation pick/QOs may be scrapped, but I am not sure how they maintain "competitive" balance if that is done. MLB has to at least look like it's not playing favourites with the big teams that can spend money and get good ratings...

 

The players big issues are service time manipulation and competitive balance. They want the talent spread out more so most pennant and playoff spots are not decided with weeks to go in the regular season.

[Stangstag]

What are the expected changes in MLB/CBA starting next year?

 

I hope we have a universal DH, more playoff spots and a new division/league alignments. I suspect the compensation pick/QOs may be scrapped, but I am not sure how they maintain "competitive" balance if that is done. MLB has to at least look like it's not playing favourites with the big teams that can spend money and get good ratings...

 

Seems there’s a definite possibility for a hard salary floor and a hard/soft salary cap.

[BigCecil]

Steamer 600 (update) gives you a rough estimate...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600u&team=0&lg=all&players=0

 

Projecting regression for Bo and Vlad from 21 numbers. Is that common with these projections?

[Jimcanuck]

The other big one that might be on the negotiating table is getting rid of IFA system and putting those players in the draft. Would make for a hell of an interesting draft.

[John_Havok]

Projecting regression for Bo and Vlad from 21 numbers. Is that common with these projections?

 

Yes. They have to take the 1st 2 years into account as well as the breakout year.

[Spanky99]

Projecting regression for Bo and Vlad from 21 numbers. Is that common with these projections?

 

Yes. Vlad actually jumped pretty big compared to last years projections, Bo, stayed the same, Semien jumped half a win, you can use these links for comparison...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=14&lg=all&players=

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600u&team=14&lg=all&players=0