Olerud363

I'm not sure how much the baserunning helped. 80s Cardinals did often score more runs then you would expect. 80s Red Sox were a better hitting team, like they'd hit .270 .340 .400 and Cardinals would hit .270 .340 .380, and Cardinals would score a bit more some years. But other years Cardinals would score 600 with great baserunning. So like if the trade off is team that steals 200 bases or a team that hits a bit better, I think the team that hits a bit better scores more runs. Like the late 80s Red Sox scored lots of runs just by hitting for average and on base but were horrible base runners.

86 Cardinals stole 260 but only 600 runs 87 Cardinals went down a bit in steals, but up 200 in runs.

It was actually all about on base percentage. 85 and 87 Cardinals led league in on base percentage... somehow 1986 Cardinals in between were last. Here are the numbers on base, steals, runs '85 .339 316 750 '86 .309 260 601 '87 .340 248 798 Any team that can get on base .340 and slug .380 probably scores 730 runs with average baserunning and 750 with great baserunning. Teams just can't apparently get on base anymore because of the pitching and defense... Like I think if Jays went 50 less homers but got on base at .340 they would score more runs... but that is not happening this day and age.

Just looked it up and Vlad's sprint speed is 45th percentile and his baserunning score is 1st percentile ! lol. Kirk's sprint is 4th and baserunning 6th percentile. So Vlad should be able to clean up his baserunning a lot. Kirk is what he is.

The counter point is IF the mean projection for Roden is true (2 WAR) but variance is higher, Roden's ceiling is higher and if Jays are projected for like 83 wins or something, they actually are better off with the variance. I say IF projection for Roden is true.... however why wouldn't it be? Why would the guys that make projection systems not adjust somehow if projections don't work for minor players or certain types of players.

That's pretty reasonable. One thing I do wonder is how meaningful Horwitz 400 or so MLB ABs are. My thinking was that Horwitz is safer because of 400 MLB abs and more triple a at bats so get Spencer back so the Jays have a safer option while the Pirates have more upside and 2 cracks at the random player lottery. According to Steamer, Wagner and Horwitz are projected to be similar though. However do people believe that? Like related the Roden/Teoscar comparison. Do people believe their projections are similar? People on the board seem to value MLB experience way more than the projection systems do.

He is only projected for 2.5 WAR for 150 games. Alan Roden is projected for 2 WAR for 150 games. How reliable and how biased are those projections ? Projection could be unreliable but not biased (meaning could be off 2 WAR but Roden is 0-4 and Teoscar 0.5 to 4.5) ? Or could be more reliable to Teoscar (2-3) but less reliable for Roden (0-4). If that is the case Roden actually has a higher ceiling. Or the projection could be positive bias for minor league players (meaning Roden projection is too high). I think a lot of posters would assume the projection is too high for Roden... but... if BJMB poster know that why don't the projection people? Need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the projection systems for major and minor league players to talk sensibly about Teoscar contract in view of the other options like Roden.

Who is the DH and backup/2026 first basemen? Howritz projects to be 2 WAR in 110 games, better per game than Teoscar who is projected 2.5 in 150 Howritz is projected to be Nathaniel Lowe. Would you take Lowe if he was available?

Need a younger, left handed, Justin Turner. I wonder what Pittsburgh would want for Spencer Horwitz. I guess this should have been formulated as part of a three player trade, but maybe Jays didn't even know Horwitz was going to Pittsburgh? Maybe Jays had a thought they'd sign another DH. Wagner and Loperfido for Howritz? Pittsburgh gets two players with more defensive versatility and similar ceiling, Jays get a bat that has more of a track record, a DH for 2025, and possible Vlad replacement for 2026.

That doesn't quite make sense... half his games are on the road... I guess the number of road games in different parks is different with different teams but shouldn't be that extreme.

Soto went into free agency with 36 bWAR. If Vlad has a good offensive year and cleans up his baserunning, defense, and takes a few more walks he can go into free agency with 85% of Soto's lifetime bWAR and an equivalent final two years. I know people say 'easier said than done', however I think we are in a new era here. If agents and players start realizing that contracts are based on WAR, they are going to take a closer look at the formulas, and clean up their game to maximize the WAR score. So if it is so easy why not do it allready? Listen to Pat and Buck for a few games. Ballplayers traditionally believe things that aren't WAR friendly. And maybe only now, with 10 years of WAR and contracts being decided on it, will it maybe become more of a thought in how players approach the game. I totally think it is possible for players to change their games a bit, when they realize it is better for the team and their wallets to maximize WAR scores, and as they understand how they are calculated they will adjust their game. My prediction is Vlad gets 8 WAR this year, with a good hitting season, a more patient approach and combined with cleaning up the baserunning and defense to Soto level. This will lead to a 700 million + contract

He is making between 31-35 million this year. Vlad has always gotten 85% off what Soto gets, coming off of years 40% or less as valuable in WAR... now he's going into final Arb with a higher bbref WAR and 90% as high fWAR, and better traditional stats then Soto had going into final arb.

Last time I was in Toronto I literally saw people s***ing in Queens park. There were multiple tents there and people just casually doing their morning business. The Tim Horton's nearby had all seating removed and bathrooms deadlocked. Obviously was once a normal Tim Horton's that had actually people sitting, talking, but all seats had to be now removed because of loitering. San Francisco may also be bad. NY City and Boston in my experience do not have those problems (edit: to the same extent I mean, obviously any area of millions of people have some people s***ing in public.... but some big cities have more of this than others). If Burnes is insulted by people s***ing in public he needs be in a) Texas, Kansas City, c) Pittsburgh, d) Boston (sorry Grant, Boston is clean and well run, the home of Havard, of the Boston Marathon, of the nicest people in the world, a place of loyalty, ethics and the last example of we have of a functional liberal city).

Emotionally it seems that a team that has run it's course, has run it's course, and this team like the 94 Jays, or the 2017 Jays has run it's course and the next good Jays team will be a different team.... but you never know. Vlad/Giminez/Bo/Varsho/Kirk/Springer all have a 3 year peak of at least 4 WAR... so their 'ceiling' is still high I guess.

Interesting if this is true... I assume Elias thinks the current market is nuts so dumb to get involved. And it is nuts but the only thing that will ever stop it is a financial crisis. Today's nutty contract are tomorrow's good deals because everything just keeps going up. Nothing will ever stop it and you are damn fool Elias for not buying, buying buying right now while the prices are cheap. NVIDIA stock price is 137 and will be 1500 in 3 years. Bitcoin is 100,000 and will be 800,000 in 4 years Canadian average house price is 850,000 and will be 2.65 million in 4 years Top MLB contract is 760 million, or 50 million a year and will by 1.8 billion, 90 million a year in 3 years If Elias thinks that any price can every go down, that any even minor recession can happen he is no genius... Elias is dumb, the smart people are grabbing everything they can before it goes up even more. I am sorry for claiming he was genius. Just another fool who thinks he can call the market. Prices go up. Only up. THere is no down.