Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Eat My Shatkins]

How quickly you forget 2020 when this FO brought in Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Matt Shoemaker to anchor the rotation (along with Ryu). They also ran Thornton and Pearson out there. Any claim that this FO "is pretty good at finding starting pitching" is laughable. The reality is dumpster diving is a risky approach and very few FO's are able to consistently 'hit'. I would suggest we got really lucky this year. Ray and Matz magically turned their careers around, Manoah stepped right in and became a stud and we generally got very lucky on the injury front.

 

Keep in mind the FO went bullpen dumpster diving in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Worked really well in 2019 and 2020 and it s*** the bed this year - forcing them to give up assets to plug holes.

 

Oh ok I see.

 

I guess we're pretty much f***ed then. lol

[Jimcanuck]

Keep in mind though, the bullpen is usually the last part of a contender that gets attention. The dumpster diving for bullpen pieces the last few years was a consequence of the focus on the offense and SP side of things.

 

At this point the Jays should, and I expect will, allocate more resources to the bullpen.

[Brownie19]

Oh ok I see.

 

I guess we're pretty much f***ed then. lol

 

Dude - you posted a scenario where we sign Max Scherzer and have Noah Syndergaard as our 5th starter. That's insane.

 

This FO has a lot of work to do. They need to extend Berrios 1st and foremost to protect the trade they made last year. Then they need to address the depth issues we have in the rotation (as we can't rely or expect to have the same health we did this year). I suspect 'ace' pitcher might actually be 3rd on the priority list.

[Krylian]

He isn't?

 

The Jays kept Grichuk and moved on from Stroman. I think that's your answer

[Krylian]

What's Stroman probably going to get?

 

6 x $20 million?

5 x $25 million?

 

 

I really hope the FO can get Berrios extended this off season.

 

Less than you think.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Dude - you posted a scenario where we sign Max Scherzer and have Noah Syndergaard as our 5th starter. That's insane.

 

This FO has a lot of work to do. They need to extend Berrios 1st and foremost to protect the trade they made last year. Then they need to address the depth issues we have in the rotation (as we can't rely or expect to have the same health we did this year). I suspect 'ace' pitcher might actually be 3rd on the priority list.

 

I know what I posted. You told me I was setting myself up for disappointment, I'm telling you I won't be disappointed if they don't get any of those guys. I'm confident they'll have an effective rotation next year either way.

 

Then you s*** on that too lol. So knock yourself out man, s*** away if it's what you want to do.

 

I think Scherzer will stay in LA, but I grouped him with two other #1 starters and I "hope" the Jays can sign one of them.

 

Syndergaard is a huge question mark at this point. The guy's basically been injured for 2.5 years now. It'll be a gamble for whoever signs him. I hope the Jays get to take that gamble though.

 

Either way, the Jays did a good job last year of turning a s*** rotation into a very good one. Since they are starting a better place I'm sure they'll be just fine.

[max silver]

How quickly you forget 2020 when this FO brought in Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Matt Shoemaker to anchor the rotation (along with Ryu). They also ran Thornton and Pearson out there. Any claim that this FO "is pretty good at finding starting pitching" is laughable. The reality is dumpster diving is a risky approach and very few FO's are able to consistently 'hit'. I would suggest we got really lucky this year. Ray and Matz magically turned their careers around, Manoah stepped right in and became a stud and we generally got very lucky on the injury front.

 

Keep in mind the FO went bullpen dumpster diving in 2019, 2020 and 2021. Worked really well in 2019 and 2020 and it s*** the bed this year - forcing them to give up assets to plug holes.

 

I really don't think that the club was all in on competing yet in 2020. You can see a marked difference in off season spending when you compare the offseasons of 2019 and 2020 when spending was really ramped up in 2020 in an obvious attempt to compete. Prior to the 2020 season Atkins mentioned specifically that they wanted to provide opportunities to the younger rotation options such as Pearson, Hatch, Manoah and likely Kay as well. Unfortunately two of those options were hurt and missed much of the season and Kay ended up flaming out as a starter, but a young team with multiple young starters in their midst needs to eventually provide opportunities to that group to see what they can do at the major league level.

 

Ray and Matz didn't turn their careers around magically, it was under the tutelage and guidance of the coaching staff, strength and conditioning group and analytics department. Give credit where credit is due. After the trade deadline the club had a borderline elite starting rotation, I would tend to think that would lend an awful lot of credence to the theory of the front office group being good at putting a rotation together. The season prior they made mid season additions of Ray and Walker which greatly boosted the rotation over the final month, yet another example of the front office strengthening the rotation as needed. 2016 saw a pretty decent rotation put together as well for that year as Happ was brought back. There's plenty of instances to see that this front office group can put together effective starting rotations, the poor start to the 2021 season doesn't somehow erase all of the successes.

 

You would have to think that the bullpen is going to be a big focus yet again this offseason. Yes they had to send out some assets to strengthen the bullpen midseason, but are you really going to lose sleep over losing Rowdy Tellez, Riley Adams, Joe Panik and the likes? I certainly hope not.

[Brownie19]

I really don't think that the club was all in on competing yet in 2020. You can see a marked difference in off season spending when you compare the offseasons of 2019 and 2020 when spending was really ramped up in 2020 in an obvious attempt to compete. Prior to the 2020 season Atkins mentioned specifically that they wanted to provide opportunities to the younger rotation options such as Pearson, Hatch, Manoah and likely Kay as well. Unfortunately two of those options were hurt and missed much of the season and Kay ended up flaming out as a starter, but a young team with multiple young starters in their midst needs to eventually provide opportunities to that group to see what they can do at the major league level.

 

Ray and Matz didn't turn their careers around magically, it was under the tutelage and guidance of the coaching staff, strength and conditioning group and analytics department. Give credit where credit is due. After the trade deadline the club had a borderline elite starting rotation, I would tend to think that would lend an awful lot of credence to the theory of the front office group being good at putting a rotation together. The season prior they made mid season additions of Ray and Walker which greatly boosted the rotation over the final month, yet another example of the front office strengthening the rotation as needed. 2016 saw a pretty decent rotation put together as well for that year as Happ was brought back. There's plenty of instances to see that this front office group can put together effective starting rotations, the poor start to the 2021 season doesn't somehow erase all of the successes.

 

You would have to think that the bullpen is going to be a big focus yet again this offseason. Yes they had to send out some assets to strengthen the bullpen midseason, but are you really going to lose sleep over losing Rowdy Tellez, Riley Adams, Joe Panik and the likes? I certainly hope not.

 

I mean, the tutelage and guidance of the coaching staff, strength and conditioning group and analytics department worked wonders on Ray and Matz, but why didn't we see results with Stripling, Pearson, Roark, Anderson, Thornton, etc.? The reality is it's always very hit or miss. Does the Jays department 'hit' more than the average club? Maybe they do, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

 

As for 2020.....Ray didn't boost our rotation. xFIP and FIP around 5 with a BB/9 over 6. He was s*** in 2020. Walker's results were great, but the underlying numbers suggested he was really lucky for us. And I'm not sure it matters what happened in 2016 if you're going to ignore 2017, 2018 and 2019.

 

I am a little peaved we traded Riley Adams for Brad Hand (who immediately pitched better for the Mets after we dumped him).

[Slade]

That's meaningless. Dude is an alpha, the team needs alphas.

 

True this team needs more 5'7 Giga Chads.

 

 

[Deadpool]

Strapping Grichuk to a rocket and blasting him into space is hardly an easy solution.

 

http://media3.giphy.com/media/9PyhoXey73EpW/giphy.gif

 

Pfft, if Ted Rogers was still alive, he'd have a flying penis on the launch pad next to Bezos and Branson...

[Deadpool]

Pi. In math, it brags about it's number of decimals...who the f*** cares about decimals. In desserts, it comes off as an alpha dessert but it's no cake. Alpha desserts are not sold on roadside stands.

 

Mississippi Mud Pie is a top-tier dessert.

[max silver]

I mean, the tutelage and guidance of the coaching staff, strength and conditioning group and analytics department worked wonders on Ray and Matz, but why didn't we see results with Stripling, Pearson, Roark, Anderson, Thornton, etc.? The reality is it's always very hit or miss. Does the Jays department 'hit' more than the average club? Maybe they do, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.

 

As for 2020.....Ray didn't boost our rotation. xFIP and FIP around 5 with a BB/9 over 6. He was s*** in 2020. Walker's results were great, but the underlying numbers suggested he was really lucky for us. And I'm not sure it matters what happened in 2016 if you're going to ignore 2017, 2018 and 2019.

 

I am a little peaved we traded Riley Adams for Brad Hand (who immediately pitched better for the Mets after we dumped him).

 

Ray and Matz had each failed to the degree that their previous organizations gave up on them. Turning each guy around to near career best levels is a huge victory for the entire organization no matter how hard you try to discount it. Each player still had the underlying talent to be an effective major league pitcher.

 

There is the old expression that you can't polish a turd. Guys like Roark, Anderson are likely each finished as effective major league pitchers. I don't see how you can blame the organization for Pearson's string of injury issues, the guy is just seriously injury prone unfortunately. Stripling actually went on a very nice run of effective pitching before the oblique injury so I would count that as a victory as well.

 

When it counted in 2020 Ray put up a great outing in the playoffs. It is a real testament to Pete Walker that he was so quickly able to turn Ray around to the point that he could pitch effectively in the playoffs against a great team. 2017-2019 were years where everything that could go wrong did go wrong, and if you are to look back you can see that the team wasn't all in on competing, as they refused to sign major long term deals or give up draft picks for qualified free agents. This ended as a rebuild behind the scenes while attempting to remain semi competitive at the same time.

 

I'm not thrilled about the Adams trade either, as Hand was terrible for Washington after the sticky stuff crackdown and was predictably terrible for the Jays as well. In the grand scheme of things Adams was likely the 5th best catcher on the roster at the point so he likely needed to be moved out sooner rather than later. I just would have preferred he not be essentially thrown away.

[Brownie19]

Ray and Matz had each failed to the degree that their previous organizations gave up on them. Turning each guy around to near career best levels is a huge victory for the entire organization no matter how hard you try to discount it. Each player still had the underlying talent to be an effective major league pitcher.

 

There is the old expression that you can't polish a turd. Guys like Roark, Anderson are likely each finished as effective major league pitchers. I don't see how you can blame the organization for Pearson's string of injury issues, the guy is just seriously injury prone unfortunately. Stripling actually went on a very nice run of effective pitching before the oblique injury so I would count that as a victory as well.

 

When it counted in 2020 Ray put up a great outing in the playoffs. It is a real testament to Pete Walker that he was so quickly able to turn Ray around to the point that he could pitch effectively in the playoffs against a great team. 2017-2019 were years where everything that could go wrong did go wrong, and if you are to look back you can see that the team wasn't all in on competing, as they refused to sign major long term deals or give up draft picks for qualified free agents. This ended as a rebuild behind the scenes while attempting to remain semi competitive at the same time.

 

I'm not thrilled about the Adams trade either, as Hand was terrible for Washington after the sticky stuff crackdown and was predictably terrible for the Jays as well. In the grand scheme of things Adams was likely the 5th best catcher on the roster at the point so he likely needed to be moved out sooner rather than later. I just would have preferred he not be essentially thrown away.

 

I guess time will tell. All I'm saying is we don't have this massive history of patching together great starting rotations year after year. We've done it once and for all the Pete Walker throating around here, there's a decent chance they got really lucky with Ray and Matz this year. Granted you hear guys like Ray and T.Walker praising Pete Walker and the analytics team - so I do hope we're on the right track. I just want to see them do it consistently.

 

If you want to ignore the old turds, then just look at the failed young pitchers on this team:

 

Pearson

Thornton

Kay

Borucki

Hatch

Murphy

Stripling (who's been way worse than he was in LA)

 

There are lots of talented arms in that bunch that we've gotten next to nothing out of.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I guess time will tell. All I'm saying is we don't have this massive history of patching together great starting rotations year after year. We've done it once and for all the Pete Walker throating around here, there's a decent chance they got really lucky with Ray and Matz this year. Granted you hear guys like Ray and T.Walker praising Pete Walker and the analytics team - so I do hope we're on the right track. I just want to see them do it consistently.

 

If you want to ignore the old turds, then just look at the failed young pitchers on this team:

 

Pearson

Thornton

Kay

Borucki

Hatch

Murphy

Stripling (who's been way worse than he was in LA)

 

There are lots of talented arms in that bunch that we've gotten next to nothing out of.

 

 

The jury isn't out on most of those guys. Hell, the jury isn't really out on ANY of them to be honest.

 

And every single one of those guys on that list battled injuries this year, except maybe Thornton.

 

Also, Stripling was just fine this year. Once he settled in he had a stretch of 12 starts from June to August where he was putting up numbers very similar to his LA days and then he got injured and missed a month. When he came back his spot in the rotation was gone and he only got a few more innings in relief.

[Brownie19]

Man - Stripling gave us a 4.80 ERA, 4.83 xERA, 5.21 FIP, 4.59 xFIP and 0.2 WAR this year. That's 'fine' because he got hot for 12 starts?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Man - Stripling gave us a 4.80 ERA, 4.83 xERA, 5.21 FIP, 4.59 xFIP and 0.2 WAR this year. That's 'fine' because he got hot for 12 starts?

 

It's a hell of an improvement from what he did in 2020. Since the Jays traded for him during 2020 I'm assuming they thought they could get him back on track and he started to show signs of that for an extended stretch of games. . And yes, he got hot for 12 starts (3.83 ERA) and then got f***ing injured. So it's not like it was a random smattering of starts and then he turned to s*** again. We'll see what he does next season.

[wilko]

I think Stroman's a great pitcher #3/2 for sure. His attitude is s*** and I don't think the Jays want to build him his own workout room...

[TwistedLogic]

Manager: Fire Charlie Montoyo. Bring back John Gibbons or promote John Schneider. Offer Montoyo the bench coach role, which he will likely decline.

 

OF: Get rid of Grichuk. Sign Kyle Schwarber for 15M AAV or Nick Castellanos for 20M AAV. Move Teoscar Hernandez to DH or rotate the four OFs through DH/1B.

 

3B: Option 1 - Trade for Jose Ramirez if he's available, using a package around Biggio and Martinez. Option 2 - Sign Nolan Arenado if he opts out. Option 3 - Sign Kris Bryant. Option 4 - Trade spare parts for Josh Donaldson. Keep Espinal as the starting 3B whenever Donaldson is injured. Even if Donaldson goes down long term, the position can be used to eventually try out Martinez or Moreno or patched with a midseason trade. Option 5 - Sign Chris Taylor.

 

SP: Sign Maxwell Scherzer for 96M over 3 years. Sign Noah Syndergaad for 25M over 1 year. Move Pearson back to the rotation. With Scherzer being old as s***, Manoah in his first full season, Ryu showing fatigue and Syndergaard and Pearson having injury concerns, a 6 man rotation can be good for everyone here.

 

RP: Re-sign Kirby Yates on a cheap one year deal. Try to sign Kenley Jansen, fail, then make a play for Aaron Loup.

 

Lineup:

 

1 | CF: George Springer

2 | 1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

3 | SS: Bo Bichette

4 | RF: Nick Castellanos

5 | DH: Teoscar Hernandez

6 | 3B: Josh Donaldson

7 | LF: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

8 | C: Alejandro Kirk

9 | 2B: Cavan Biggio

 

Rotation:

 

1 | Max Scherzer

2 | Alek Manoah

3 | Jose Berrios

4 | Noah Syndergaard

5 | Hyun-Jin Ryu

6 | Nate Pearson

 

Bullpen:

 

1 | Jordan Romano

2 | Aaron Loup

3 | Kirby Yates

4 | Julian Merryweather

5 | Tim Mayza

6 | Trevor Richards

7 | Adam Cimber

 

Bench:

 

B1 | C | Danny Jansen

B2 | IF | Santiago Espinal

 

B3/B4 | Smith, Palacios, Valera, Capra, etc.

 

lol, well Chris Taylor probably just upped his price tag with one home run.

[jaysguy44]

The BlueJays made attempts to acquire Jose Ramirez and Robbie Grossman at the trade deadline.

[glory]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/blue-jays-tried-to-acquire-jose-ramirez-robbie-grossman-at-deadline.html

 

In an article about the Blue Jays’ upcoming offseason, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet says that the club tried to acquire Cleveland infielder Jose Ramirez and Detroit outfielder Robbie Grossman at the trade deadline.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Goddamn, those would have been solid adds and neither would have been rentals.

 

I Wonder if those will be revisited or if they will stay on the back burner now that the Jays can try to fill those holes via free agency and save the acquisition cost.

[RobinThicc]

I wonder if they wanted Ramirez and Berrios as well or if they were offering Martin + SWR in the Ramirez deal and then pivoted to Berrios.

[glory]

Cleveland really has no reason to trade Ramirez since he's so cheap (with team options) and they have like no payroll commitments next year after trading Lindor, but if they did happen to revisit this in the off season, then I wonder if there is a deal that can be figured out that doesn't involve Manoah, Moreno, or Martinez (and obviously Vlad/Bo) going the other way. Really anyone else on the MLB or MiLB roster should be available in that deal, but with Martin and SWR subtracted from the system, it makes it a bit harder to pull off that type of trade while still holding on to Moreno/Martinez. I doubt CLE would get too excited about Groshans and Kirk as a starting point.

[max silver]

Cleveland really has no reason to trade Ramirez since he's so cheap (with team options) and they have like no payroll commitments next year after trading Lindor, but if they did happen to revisit this in the off season, then I wonder if there is a deal that can be figured out that doesn't involve Manoah, Moreno, or Martinez (and obviously Vlad/Bo) going the other way. Really anyone else on the MLB or MiLB roster should be available in that deal, but with Martin and SWR subtracted from the system, it makes it a bit harder to pull off that type of trade while still holding on to Moreno/Martinez. I doubt CLE would get too excited about Groshans and Kirk as a starting point.

 

When it came to the Lindor deal the jays missed out (thank f*** for that) as the Indians preferred to receive more immediate help vs a higher ceiling future package. Maybe Groshans and Kirk are still a good starting point, as you get a blend of present and future potential. Would including Biggio and perhaps Gurriel to the offer entice Cleveland a little more in that this package would help to bolster their current roster in several areas with young cost controlled players.

[BigCecil]

Cleveland really has no reason to trade Ramirez since he's so cheap (with team options) and they have like no payroll commitments next year after trading Lindor, but if they did happen to revisit this in the off season, then I wonder if there is a deal that can be figured out that doesn't involve Manoah, Moreno, or Martinez (and obviously Vlad/Bo) going the other way. Really anyone else on the MLB or MiLB roster should be available in that deal, but with Martin and SWR subtracted from the system, it makes it a bit harder to pull off that type of trade while still holding on to Moreno/Martinez. I doubt CLE would get too excited about Groshans and Kirk as a starting point.

I think those 2 with 3 years of Lourdes for 3mm aav would be of interest to them. It’s a lesser under market deal for a proven MLB talent with upside and then years of control and cheap seasons from the other 2.

[Brownie19]

I think those 2 with 3 years of Lourdes for 3mm aav would be of interest to them. It’s a lesser under market deal for a proven MLB talent with upside and then years of control and cheap seasons from the other 2.

 

If you moved Lordes for Ramirez and sign Conforto to replace him - that would be sweet. You have to expect Conforto wants a pillow deal, but landing him for 2-3 years through his age 29-31 seasons would probably be very successful.

[TwistedLogic]

If you can get:

 

Scherzer for 3 years x 30M

Syndergaard for 1 year x 25M

Verlander for 1 year x 20M

 

And the only way to get it done is to sign all three of those deals (ie: the guys want to pitch together), do you do it?

 

I say yes in a heartbeat but I see a lot of reasons why people could have an aversion to it (lots of uncertainty, age, injury concerns, blocking young pitchers, etc). Curious what others think.

[glory]

When it came to the Lindor deal the jays missed out (thank f*** for that) as the Indians preferred to receive more immediate help vs a higher ceiling future package. Maybe Groshans and Kirk are still a good starting point, as you get a blend of present and future potential. Would including Biggio and perhaps Gurriel to the offer entice Cleveland a little more in that this package would help to bolster their current roster in several areas with young cost controlled players.

 

Cleveland definitely seems to prefer a blend of young and MLB talent in exchange for their vets, so I could see them being interested in Gurriel along with prospects. Would CLE do something like Groshans, Kirk, Gurriel, and Biggio for Ramirez? I have no idea. I'm sure they'd love the cheap years of control on the latter 3. They could fill 3 MLB positions for cheap for the next 3-5 years, plus get a top 50ish prospect on top of that. I guess it would depend on how highly they view those players. If the Jays could get Ramirez without giving up Moreno or Martinez, then man, that would be incredible.

[max silver]

If you can get:

 

Scherzer for 3 years x 30M

Syndergaard for 1 year x 25M

Verlander for 1 year x 20M

 

And the only way to get it done is to sign all three of those deals (ie: the guys want to pitch together), do you do it?

 

I say yes in a heartbeat but I see a lot of reasons why people could have an aversion to it (lots of uncertainty, age, injury concerns, blocking young pitchers, etc). Curious what others think.

 

My biggest issue with signing all three is that it would likely force Manoah to AAA as there would be too many starters on the roster with the presence of Ryu and Berrios in the rotation. Who knows what you would even get with Verlander though given the advanced age and long layoff.

[TwistedLogic]

My biggest issue with signing all three is that it would likely force Manoah to AAA as there would be too many starters on the roster with the presence of Ryu and Berrios in the rotation. Who knows what you would even get with Verlander though given the advanced age and long layoff.

 

Nah, you can easily run a 6-man rotation and keep all three of Manoah, Ryu and Berrios in the rotation. In fact, I'd give Manoah the ball on opening day to give him that show of support for what he did this past year.

 

Given the injury concerns, Manoah's lack of experience in a full season and Ryu wearing down by the end of the 2021 season, a 6-man rotation would be a really good idea in 2022 to get everyone back to their innings thresholds.

 

If you really want to go with a 5-man rotation, I'd just try to offload Ryu in a trade or maybe stretch him out as a long man until one of Syndergaard or Verlander go down with an injury.

 

I don't like the idea of making moves or not making moves around Hyun-Jin Ryu. Guy could easily be in late-career Mark Buehrle territory at this point and you don't give up on a chance to significantly improve your team just because he's around. He's still a great 5th starter, but if an opportunity to bolster the rotation comes at his expense, you find a way to make it work.