Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[wilko]

I'd like to see Espinol at 3rd and a healthy Biggio at 2nd. Espinol's bat could be a mirage but his D is excellent. Or get a 3B, move Espinol to 2nd and or Biggio super utility? I'd rather the Jays spend more money on pitching than trying to fill a hole that might not be too deep.

[TheHurl]

Will Matt Chapman ever return to 2018/2019 form or anything close to it? I was willing to write off his 2020 season but 2021 wasn't great either. He still hits home runs but his K rate is way up (well over 30%) and his BA/OBP is way down. He kinda just looks like a league average hitter right now.

 

The guy put up 3.5 fWAR as a league average hitter. He's an elite defender and only has 2 arb years remaining. He's also available to SS in a pinch and a better than average base runner. There should be zero age regression as it's just 2 years and he costs less than 1 year of Jose Ramirez in prospect capital. If his bat returns he's likely better than Semien for those two years.

 

We have 1 expendable MLB ready infielder available in return. Oakland loves and needs that. Which means it's probably just one prospect piece in addition to get him. Espinal and a pitching spect gets it done. If you believe Espinal is what he was this year than we don't even need to have this discussion. Spend your money or prospect capital elsewhere

[TheHurl]

That's what I meant by "came in the Hutch trade"

 

I thought Hutch trade was his car

[max silver]

I miss JD on the team as much as anyone, but do we really want him as the starting 3B in 2022-23? He was a 2 WAR player in 2021 while staying pretty healthy all season (543 PA). The defense isn't great anymore and he's become a bad baserunner on top of that (lots of lower body injuries adding up?). Grichuk is awful and not having him on the roster would be incredible, but I think having JD at age 36-37 probably doesn't move the needle much, if at all. On top of that he makes $21m in 2022, $21m in 2023, and then $6M in 2024 (buyout), with a $2m assignment bonus when he's traded. Even factoring the difference between his and Grichuk's contracts, that's still adding over $30m in payroll over 3 years for a player on the decline.

 

Donaldson is a little tricky to evaluate, but I don't think he's as mediocre as Fangraphs makes him out to be. When you look at strictly WRC+ he only posted a 124 which is very good but not necessarily great, but his expected stats show a player who had a fantastic season swinging the bat but may have been a bit snakebitten. His xWOBA of .385 is over 30 points above his actual and places him in the top 8% of the league. For comparisons sake that's in the same ballpark as the xWOBA that he produced in his heyday as a Jay.

 

By UZR alone his defence looks terrible at -19.4 UZR/150, but DRS and OAA both paint a different picture as he produced 1 DRS in his 761 innings and 1 OAA as well. The baserunning is unlikely to improve as Donaldson is currently slow as s*** with a way below average sprint speed of 24.5 ft/second. In both recent series against Minnesota it looked to me like Donaldson was intentionally shortening his strides and only running at something like 75% effort on the bases. I would guess this is an attempt to avoid further calf injuries as he has been plagued with those over the years.

 

I think as a part time third baseman and part time DH Donaldson would be a great fit on this roster if the Jays and Minnesota could come up with a way to lessen the financial burden of taking on his contract.

[RobinThicc]

Statistical models don't take into account whether or not a guy played hurt though. I think Cavan will have a bounce back too.

 

So who thinks Pearson should be moved to the bullpen now, or is it too early and let him start of the year as a starter? I've always been in the he's a starter camp, but he looked really good out of the pen and we desperately need arms in the pen. I think I'm on the fence now given his injury issues

Pearson should be moved in a trade to a team that still thinks he can be a starter.

[Spanky99]

Pearson should be moved in a trade to a team that still thinks he can be a starter.

 

Da Fuq?

[Deadpool]

Pearson should be moved in a trade to a team that still thinks he can be a starter.

 

No thanks.

 

I mean, for a spectacular return, sure, but otherwise, he should be kept and start here.

[glory]

The guy put up 3.5 fWAR as a league average hitter. He's an elite defender and only has 2 arb years remaining. He's also available to SS in a pinch and a better than average base runner. There should be zero age regression as it's just 2 years and he costs less than 1 year of Jose Ramirez in prospect capital. If his bat returns he's likely better than Semien for those two years.

 

We have 1 expendable MLB ready infielder available in return. Oakland loves and needs that. Which means it's probably just one prospect piece in addition to get him. Espinal and a pitching spect gets it done. If you believe Espinal is what he was this year than we don't even need to have this discussion. Spend your money or prospect capital elsewhere

 

Yeah I think Chapman is a nice target assuming he's available. A league average hitter with elite defense is his floor. He still has some offensive upside if he regain his pre-2020 form (maybe getting away from OAK would help), and the two years of control would actually benefit the Jays since it's a perfect length for someone his age + would give internal IF options (Groshans, Martinez) a bit of time. Not sure what it would cost to get him, but it should be no where near the price of getting Ramirez for the same years of control, and Chapman has proven to have Semien-2021 type of upside in terms of overall value.

[Spanky99]

No thanks.

 

I mean, for a spectacular return, sure, but otherwise, he should be kept and start here.

 

Exactly, we're thin on pitching. We NEED last year's top 10 MLB prospect here, dealing for us.

[jerb]

 

Rob Longley

@longleysunsport

 

Ross Atkins said the entire coaching staff will return for 2022: “It’s a testament to Charlie’s leadership. They have put our players in positions to improve.” #Bluejays

[Sorrow]

 

So looks like Pearson will get a chance to start again next season as he should.

[Spanky99]

What's this, lol... I'm down...

 

[jerb]

 

Tim Micallef

@tim_micallef

 

Atkins will join us today on @timandfriends at around 5:20pm ET.

[Krylian]

Stroman isn't coming back. This is him getting his Blue Jay fan fans worked up so they can then s*** on Shapiro and Atkins when it doesn't happen.

[Laika]

Stroman isn't coming back. This is him getting his Blue Jay fan fans worked up so they can then s*** on Shapiro and Atkins when it doesn't happen.

 

Nah he'd come back if they paid him the most money.

[JaysAllMighty]

f*** stroman, little man syndrome headcase.

[Spanky99]

Take him all day, twice on Sunday's!!! Between the lines man, he gets it done.

[glory]

I'd be fine with Stroman, and I don't even think it's outlandish to think he'd be as good or better than Ray next season (depends on how real you think Ray's 2021 was). It won't happen, and this is all window dressing so Stro looks good in Canadian social media circles, but give me the pitcher that wants the ball in his hand when it matters. Manoah gives off that vibe, and we know Stro has it.

[RobinThicc]

Stroman is a damn good pitcher.

 

Would be stupid as f*** no to explore the option of signing him

[G-Snarls]

 

So looks like Pearson will get a chance to start again next season as he should.

 

Oh he definitely should

 

Still lots of potential to be a good starter

[Stangstag]

Stroman isn't coming back. This is him getting his Blue Jay fan fans worked up so they can then s*** on Shapiro and Atkins when it doesn't happen.

 

Galaxy brain move

[John_Havok]

I'd be fine with Stroman, and I don't even think it's outlandish to think he'd be as good or better than Ray next season (depends on how real you think Ray's 2021 was). It won't happen, and this is all window dressing so Stro looks good in Canadian social media circles, but give me the pitcher that wants the ball in his hand when it matters. Manoah gives off that vibe, and we know Stro has it.

 

Stroman is a good #4, if he would accept that instead of preening around the world like he's the best pitcher on earth, he'd be better off. Sure, sign him to replace Matz and that would be fine, but if he thinks he needs to lead the staff like a hero and be paid like an ace, he's just delusional. There's confidence, and then there's delusion and I think Stroman crossed that line some time ago. Like we get it, you're short, you think you have to tell the world every time you open your mouth how hard it is for short people to excel in sports and how everytime something bad happens it only makes you come back stronger. So cliche. Be original, not some little/big man headcase.

[Spanky99]

TIL Stroman is a good #4 pitcher. Wow!

[glory]

Stroman is a good #4, if he would accept that instead of preening around the world like he's the best pitcher on earth, he'd be better off. Sure, sign him to replace Matz and that would be fine, but if he thinks he needs to lead the staff like a hero and be paid like an ace, he's just delusional. There's confidence, and then there's delusion and I think Stroman crossed that line some time ago. Like we get it, you're short, you think you have to tell the world every time you open your mouth how hard it is for short people to excel in sports and how everytime something bad happens it only makes you come back stronger. So cliche. Be original, not some little/big man headcase.

 

Stro is basically Berrios in terms of overall value. A consistent 3-4 WAR SP who eats up innings. That's better than a #4. It's probably a very solid #2-3.

 

Between him and Ray, I think I'd probably prefer Stroman, but that's primarily due to expected cost. Ray could conceivably get a Patrick Corbin type of deal (6/140), though he's probably getting 5 years instead of 6. Stroman over a 5 year deal is going to get, what? Somewhere between $80-100m? It would likely be a significant cost saving and I don't even think it's a lock Ray is better next year or beyond. Stroman's floor is a lot higher, and Ray is coming off a career year.

 

I could understand people not wanting Stro back, and I by no means actually expect either side to seriously consider it, but it wouldn't be a bad idea, IMO. I would obviously prefer Scherzer, Thor, etc.

[Jimcanuck]

Stroman, Matz, a couple of good bullpen pieces, Moreno to 3B, and Vlad, Bo, and Teo extended long term and the Jays are ready to rock.

 

Parts of the Toronto skyline tattoo are still visible, the bridge is not completely burned down.

[jaysguy44]

Lol absolutely not to Stroman

[John_Havok]

Stro is basically Berrios in terms of overall value. A consistent 3-4 WAR SP who eats up innings. That's better than a #4. It's probably a very solid #2-3.

 

Between him and Ray, I think I'd probably prefer Stroman, but that's primarily due to expected cost. Ray could conceivably get a Patrick Corbin type of deal (6/140), though he's probably getting 5 years instead of 6. Stroman over a 5 year deal is going to get, what? Somewhere between $80-100m? It would likely be a significant cost saving and I don't even think it's a lock Ray is better next year or beyond. Stroman's floor is a lot higher, and Ray is coming off a career year.

 

I could understand people not wanting Stro back, and I by no means actually expect either side to seriously consider it, but it wouldn't be a bad idea, IMO. I would obviously prefer Scherzer, Thor, etc.

 

If Stroman is a team's #2, they aren't winning jack.

[Ehjays]

Ross Atkins End of season press conference

 

[saskjayfan]

If Stroman is a team's #2, they aren't winning jack.

 

He's not a number 4 either. He's got a career 3.63 ERA. A career 3.62 FIP a 3.58 xFIP. Year to year he has a lot of consistency. He's one of the lower risk guys for what you're going to get. He's a solid number 3 on a playoff team. He's a 5 and 80 to 90 mil pitcher.

 

Shatkins aren't going to go there. I think they will look to some short term options....They'll give the long term deal to Berrios.

[John_Havok]

He's not a number 4 either. He's got a career 3.63 ERA. A career 3.62 FIP a 3.58 xFIP. Year to year he has a lot of consistency. He's one of the lower risk guys for what you're going to get. He's a solid number 3 on a playoff team. He's a 5 and 80 to 90 mil pitcher.

 

Shatkins aren't going to go there. I think they will look to some short term options....They'll give the long term deal to Berrios.

 

TO be fair, I honestly don't think Ray or Berrios are playoff winning teams #1's either, so... it seems my bar for playoff team pitching a slightly higher than some.