Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[John_Havok]

Grichuk, Kirk and Pearson for German Marquez

 

Too much? Too little?

 

Jays could roll with Jansen/Mcguire until Moreno is ready for a call up.

 

German Marqez is a right handed Steven Matz, just a few years younger. Would you give up those players for Matz if he was 3 years younger? Or would you just try to find a similar pitcher via free agency and just pay money and keep your assets?

[connorp]

Why would they want Grichuk

 

I’m assuming he’s saying overpay with the two others so you can include Grichuk and his full salary?

[Eat My Shatkins]

German Marqez is a right handed Steven Matz, just a few years younger. Would you give up those players for Matz if he was 3 years younger? Or would you just try to find a similar pitcher via free agency and just pay money and keep your assets?

 

Marquez has 17 career WAR at 26 years old, Matz has 9 career WAR at 30 years old. Plus Marquez has 3 more years of control on a contract with team friendly options.

 

And yes to the poster that asked, including Grichuk as a salary dump was part of the deal and why I gave up as much as I gave up in the proposal.

[Dick_Pole]

The obsession with Grichuk on this board is through the roof. The Jays aren't giving up extra assets in a trade just to dump his contract. This isn't the Pittsburgh Pirates. They Jays can absorb his salary for two years in exchange for okayish 4th OF production if that's what ends up happening. Trade scenarios like the one involving him and Donaldson at least make philosophical sense for both teams even if the exact trade details are up for debate. This one doesn't make a lick of sense. Edited October 16, 2021 by Dick_Pole

[Jimcanuck]

Grichuk, Kirk and Pearson for German Marquez

 

Too much? Too little?

 

Jays could roll with Jansen/Mcguire until Moreno is ready for a call up.

 

Retain Grichuk so Pearson doesn't need to be included, and give up Kirk, Hiraldo, Dasan Brown - something like that. Not enough, as some other team will give up more.....

[John_Havok]

Marquez has 17 career WAR at 26 years old, Matz has 9 career WAR at 30 years old. Plus Marquez has 3 more years of control on a contract with team friendly options.

 

And yes to the poster that asked, including Grichuk as a salary dump was part of the deal and why I gave up as much as I gave up in the proposal.

 

I know, I'm just making conversation. Sometimes I find people throwing out trade scenarios without really thinking through what they are proposing.

 

And the comparison of Matz and Marquez wasn't so much about career WAR by X age, just that their current #'s, from a FIP, k rate, walk rate etc... are about identical. Matz age 27 season was virtually identical to Marquez age 26 season this year.

 

In any case, it's clear you've done your homework. Original point of mine was...Marquez would earn 11m in 2022, 15M in 2023 and 16M in 2024 (or 2.4m buyout). So ... there's really 3 scenarios the Jays would be mulling over.

 

Trading assets for 2 years of Marquez plus the buyout totaling 28.4m

Trading assets for 3 years of Marquez totaling 42 million

Signing someone relatively similar to Marquez via free agency for whatever that might cost, which is probably more in dollars, but retaining the 3 assets.

[Dick_Pole]

When signing the deal with Grichuk, this team obviously took a chance that with his profile that they could coach him into something great. It didn't pan out. For the most part it has worked out for the Jays. A lot of excess value has been extracted from other teams' throwaway hitters since 2010. No need to constantly whine about one of the rare times it didn't really work out. If he had turned into the next Bautista or Encarnacion everyone would be panning over what a great deal that was.

[glory]

Trade Grichuk for JBJ. The salaries are about equal (JBJ: $9.5m in 2022/$8.0m buyout in 2023, Grichuk $9.33m in 2022+2023). JBJ is coming off an awful season, but he's LH, can play CF, and would be a better 4th OF option on a team with so many RH outfielders. No idea whether the Brewers would be interested in a deal like that, but trying to be realistic, and let me dream about a roster without Grichuk dammit.

[connorp]

Trade Grichuk for JBJ. The salaries are about equal (JBJ: $9.5m in 2022/$8.0m buyout in 2023, Grichuk $9.33m in 2022+2023). JBJ is coming off an awful season, but he's LH, can play CF, and would be a better 4th OF option on a team with so many RH outfielders. No idea whether the Brewers would be interested in a deal like that, but trying to be realistic, and let me dream about a roster without Grichuk dammit.

 

Yuck. “DFA JBJ already” would be a very, very long thread already if Jays signed him

[glory]

Yuck. “DFA JBJ already” would be a very, very long thread already if Jays signed him

 

He's a good bounce back candidate given how bad he was this season, but even if he was bad again in 2022, the final year of his deal is an option. Just decline the option. They'll have to pay him $8m for that, but Grichuk at $9+m isn't any better. It would be a pick your poison scenario. JBJ is a much better fit for this roster, although the risk would be Buntoyo playing him a lot regardless of performance. Charlie loves vetrins.

[Orgfiller]

I know, I'm just making conversation. Sometimes I find people throwing out trade scenarios without really thinking through what they are proposing.

 

And the comparison of Matz and Marquez wasn't so much about career WAR by X age, just that their current #'s, from a FIP, k rate, walk rate etc... are about identical. Matz age 27 season was virtually identical to Marquez age 26 season this year.

 

In any case, it's clear you've done your homework. Original point of mine was...Marquez would earn 11m in 2022, 15M in 2023 and 16M in 2024 (or 2.4m buyout). So ... there's really 3 scenarios the Jays would be mulling over.

 

Trading assets for 2 years of Marquez plus the buyout totaling 28.4m

Trading assets for 3 years of Marquez totaling 42 million

Signing someone relatively similar to Marquez via free agency for whatever that might cost, which is probably more in dollars, but retaining the 3 assets.

 

I don't think you have any idea how good and valuable German Marquez is. He's basically as valuable as Marcus Stroman but is 26 and on an excellent contract. Well above average velocity and spin on his breaking ball which he's translated into strikeouts, low walks and even despite making his home ballpark Coors he hasn't had big issues with the longball. That's a premium asset. He couldn't be further from Steven Matz, their projected WAR for next season might be as much as 2 wins apart. Hell Matz might get more in FA than Marquez is guaranteed for in the next 3 seasons.

[John_Havok]

I don't think you have any idea how good and valuable German Marquez is. He's basically as valuable as Marcus Stroman but is 26 and on an excellent contract. Well above average velocity and spin on his breaking ball which he's translated into strikeouts, low walks and even despite making his home ballpark Coors he hasn't had big issues with the longball. That's a premium asset. He couldn't be further from Steven Matz, their projected WAR for next season might be as much as 2 wins apart. Hell Matz might get more in FA than Marquez is guaranteed for in the next 3 seasons.

 

I fully know Marquez's value. The point I'm making still stands. Is it better to trade for him specifically which costs assets + cash, or sign someone like him for cash only which would cost more in actual dollars but allow the team to retain the assets whose production/value would also need to be considered. So, based on your mention of Stroman... would you rather just sign Stroman for cash, or trade the assets + pay cash for Marquez?

[Orgfiller]

I fully know Marquez's value. The point I'm making still stands. Is it better to trade for him specifically which costs assets + cash, or sign someone like him for cash only which would cost more in actual dollars but allow the team to retain the assets whose production/value would also need to be considered.

 

I'm not arguing that Marquez is more or less "valuable" than Matz.

 

But who is "someone like him" that can be signed out of FA? Stroman and Gausman basically? Of course there's always a consideration when making a trade on how much value you're giving up and how that stacks up to purely signing a player, but acquiring a guy like Marquez also gives the team the financial flexibility to still pursue one of these types in FA, if those exist. It's not an either or scenario. The team is high on the win curve with some key pieces of the current squad as free agents and some young, currently cheap players they'll be having to make a decision on.

 

Also your initial post was literally "German Marqez is a right handed Steven Matz, just a few years younger" which couldn't be further from the truth. Marquez isn't more valuable just because he's cheaper, he's legitimately easily a better pitcher.

[John_Havok]

But who is "someone like him" that can be signed out of FA? Stroman and Gausman basically? Of course there's always a consideration when making a trade on how much value you're giving up and how that stacks up to purely signing a player, but acquiring a guy like Marquez also gives the team the financial flexibility to still pursue one of these types in FA, if those exist. It's not an either or scenario. The team is high on the win curve with some key pieces of the current squad as free agents and some young, currently cheap players they'll be having to make a decision on.

 

Also your initial post was literally "German Marqez is a right handed Steven Matz, just a few years younger" which couldn't be further from the truth. Marquez isn't more valuable just because he's cheaper, he's legitimately easily a better pitcher.

 

Poorly worded on my part with regards to Matz vs Marquez. Their talent levels are much closer than you make it seem, but their current values are drastically different due to age, contracts statuses etc.

 

And yeah, usually it is an either/or scenario when talking trades like that for the Jays, unless they've recently decided to break through the payroll luxury tax. There's never been any trades like the one being proposed, along with a large splash FA signing that follows that puts them at or above the luxury tax in recent memory.

 

The biggest FA signings in the last 5 years and Ryu and Springer, but there was no trades that preceded them bringing in legit talents like a Marquez. The trade with Oakland for Donaldson is probably the best recent example of that type of trade in the 2014 offseason, but there were 0 free agent signings of anyone noteworthy after the trade in that offseason. Even the following offseason the only notable signing was JA Happ.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I don't think you have any idea how good and valuable German Marquez is. He's basically as valuable as Marcus Stroman but is 26 and on an excellent contract. Well above average velocity and spin on his breaking ball which he's translated into strikeouts, low walks and even despite making his home ballpark Coors he hasn't had big issues with the longball. That's a premium asset. He couldn't be further from Steven Matz, their projected WAR for next season might be as much as 2 wins apart. Hell Matz might get more in FA than Marquez is guaranteed for in the next 3 seasons.

 

Thank you. I see Marquez as a premium starting pitcher and he's on a pretty sweet deal for 3 more seasons.

 

You try to sign a pitcher in free agency of that quality it's going to cost 20-25 million per year for probably way too many years. Get a pitcher like that and you can afford to let go of Pearson, and as everyone knows catcher is a position of great depth so you can afford to let Kirk go as well.

[John_Havok]

Thank you. I see Marquez as a premium starting pitcher and he's on a pretty sweet deal for 3 more seasons.

 

You try to sign a pitcher in free agency of that quality it's going to cost 20-25 million per year for probably way too many years. Get a pitcher like that and you can afford to let go of Pearson, and as everyone knows catcher is a position of great depth so you can afford to let Kirk go as well.

 

Well, ... yeah, good pitcher, good contract but premium starting pitcher? What's your definition of premium?

 

I'd have him in a list of Tier 2 guys, but not what I consider premium.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Well, ... yeah, good pitcher, good contract but premium starting pitcher? What's your definition of premium?

 

Hmmm, not an "ace" so to speak, but very good and belongs at or near the top of a rotation. Pretty much a lock for 3-5 WAR.

[John_Havok]

Hmmm, not an "ace" so to speak, but very good and belongs at or near the top of a rotation. Pretty much a lock for 3-5 WAR.

 

yeah okay. That's where my tier 2 list falls, so we're on the same page then.

[Jimcanuck]

Problem is, given the relative scarcity of SP, at least half the teams in MLB would bid for Marquez services. I have a hard time seeing the Jays making the winning bid, after depleting the farm at the upper end to get Berrios.

[John_Havok]

Problem is, given the relative scarcity of SP, at least half the teams in MLB would bid for Marquez services. I have a hard time seeing the Jays making the winning bid, after depleting the farm at the upper end to get Berrios.

 

It's hard to imagine Marquez is even on the market. And if he was - i doubt the return would look like Grichuk, Kirk and Pearson. It's probably not a massive underpay but they'd be looking for guys with more certainty IMO. Grichuk is a certainty, but not in a good way. Kirk would be very intriguing, but Pearson is the furthest thing from a certainty there is.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Who's better, Berrios or Marquez?

 

Which set of prospects is better, Martin/SWR or Kirk/Pearson?

 

Of course I guess you have to consider that Marquez contract right now is way better than Berrios contract was when the Jays acquired him, because of term.

[Jimcanuck]

Who's better, Berrios or Marquez?

 

Which set of prospects is better, Martin/SWR or Kirk/Pearson?

 

Of course I guess you have to consider that Marquez contract right now is way better than Berrios contract was when the Jays acquired him, because of term.

 

Berrios but not by much. Kirk side has a bit more value.

 

The 2nd part of your post is the key. That's the part that says Jay don't get Marquez unless they put an Orelvis type on the table.

[Olerud363]

Who's better, Berrios or Marquez?

 

Which set of prospects is better, Martin/SWR or Kirk/Pearson?

 

Of course I guess you have to consider that Marquez contract right now is way better than Berrios contract was when the Jays acquired him, because of term.

 

Kirk is a .320 minor league hitter with like a 90 - 60 bb to k rate in the minors who already has had almost 200 decent mlb plate appearances showing power, good k-bb, his MLB numbers look kind of blah because of a late slump that hit his batting average

 

Pearson was an A+ pitching prospect after 2019, with 100 mph velocity and good breaking stuff. Then the last 2 years have been a write-off

 

I don't know, just seems like such a low point for Pearson and Kirk that you won't get value for them... on the other hand maybe all the teams are smart enough now to realize their true ceilings.

[Jimcanuck]

Kirk is a .320 minor league hitter with like a 90 - 60 bb to k rate in the minors who already has had almost 200 decent mlb plate appearances showing power, good k-bb, his MLB numbers look kind of blah because of a late slump that hit his batting average

 

Pearson was an A+ pitching prospect after 2019, with 100 mph velocity and good breaking stuff. Then the last 2 years have been a write-off

 

I don't know, just seems like such a low point for Pearson and Kirk that you won't get value for them... on the other hand maybe all the teams are smart enough now to realize their true ceilings.

 

They are all smarter than you, so.......

[jerb]

 

TSN 1050 Toronto

@TSN1050Radio

 

Big show on @OverDrive1050 today with @Raptors head coach Nick Nurse joining the boys at 5:05pm and @BlueJays president Mark Shapiro on at 6:05pm!

 

LISTEN LIVE: https://t.co/IUv4e6W38Y?amp=1

[Olerud363]

They are all smarter than you, so.......

 

By that logic we could shut down the board as it is not worth discussing anything... Nobody on this board has the combination of intelligence and data that a major league organization SHOULD have.

 

On the other hand there is so much weirdness in scouting rankings I wonder how inefficient player value really is.

 

A recent case is Luciano (5th overlal mlb prospect) vs Orelvis Martinez (44th)

 

Luciano : Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 65 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60

Martinez: Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 55

 

Their scouting rankings are the same across the board except Luciano is rated a grade higher in power and Orelvis higher in speed.

 

However Orelivs showed more power last year, 28 homers to 19. So how does this make any sense?

 

Maybe there is a reason they are ranked so far apart but I wonder whether or not the way the industry views prospects is sane.

 

I'd worry that trading Pearson and Kirk right now would be a waste, because they are at at a real low point in playing time and some traditional metrics.

 

Do we think organizations like Colorado would value Pearson, Kirk and Martinez correctly? Some organizations would, maybe a reason to expect a trade with a good organization but not a bad, just given the low points in playing time (because of missing 2020 and injuries) some of the Jays prospects are at.

[jerb]

 

Ben Nicholson-Smith

@bnicholsonsmith

 

#BlueJays' revenues have obviously dropped in recent years with limited games/attendance in Toronto, but Mark Shapiro says via Zoom that he expects Jays' "payroll will continue to rise" moving forward

 

Ben Nicholson-Smith

@bnicholsonsmith

 

Re. pending free agents Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray & Steven Matz, Mark Shapiro says: "We'd love to sign all 3 of those guys back ... those are guys that we'll go in the market & compete for"

 

That said, Shapiro says Jays' goal is to improve, not bring-back-specific-player-or-bust

[Spanky99]

 

Ben Nicholson-Smith

@bnicholsonsmith

 

#BlueJays' revenues have obviously dropped in recent years with limited games/attendance in Toronto, but Mark Shapiro says via Zoom that he expects Jays' "payroll will continue to rise" moving forward

 

Ben Nicholson-Smith

@bnicholsonsmith

 

Re. pending free agents Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray & Steven Matz, Mark Shapiro says: "We'd love to sign all 3 of those guys back ... those are guys that we'll go in the market & compete for"

 

That said, Shapiro says Jays' goal is to improve, not bring-back-specific-player-or-bust

 

Noice, same stuff Atkins mentioned as well... this is good news, folks.

[glory]

The more I look at the Jays payroll situation, now and down the road, the more I think they pass on Semien/Ray due to price and focus on finding the 2022 versions of those two players. Basically try to do what AA did in Atlanta. Just keep trying to find the best short term value every year (JD, Ozuna, Morton, etc) to supplement the existing young core.

[jerb]

 

Keegan Matheson

@KeeganMatheson

 

Mark Shapiro says he was left with a feeling of "bitterness" after the #BlueJays fell just short in '21.

 

Shapiro added this has left the #BlueJays "...more committed, more determined and more resolved to bring a World Series to Canada.”

 

Keegan Matheson

@KeeganMatheson

 

The #BlueJays will have their final payroll with ownership in about a month, Shapiro says.

 

That said, he expects payroll to continue to grow given recent “consistent and strong support” from ownership along with on-field improvements.

 

Keegan Matheson

@KeeganMatheson

 

The #BlueJays' stadium is a long-term issue that’s been put on hold due to the pandemic, Shapiro says. For now, there will be short-term improvements.

 

Next year’s most noticeable one will be a new scoreboard at Rogers Centre.

 

Ben Nicholson-Smith

@bnicholsonsmith

 

Marcus Semien clearly left an impact on many #BlueJays people with his preparation & focus this year

 

Mark Shapiro called Semien "a role model for all of us in the way we approach our job." High praise.

 

Mitch Bannon

@MitchBannon

 

Toronto President Mark Shapiro said he's "feeling pretty good" about Rob Manfred's confidence in a CBA deal getting done by Dec. 1 #BlueJays #MLB