Two White Sox Series Exposed the Blue Jays' Biggest Problem

Back at the beginning of April, the Jays headed into Chicago to play against a team coming off a 101-loss season. The games were close, with plenty of opportunities for the Jays to win, but eventually they came out on the wrong end of a series sweep. What unfolded in early April was one of the first warning signs that the Blue Jays were not the team many expected them to be.

Returning from the All-Star break, the Jays hosted the White Sox for a chance at redemption and maybe a shot at reestablishing themselves for a second-half run. Even if you remove the first game blow-out, winning one of three games and scoring one run in the last two would suggest the first half was not an anomaly but just who this team is.

Outside of the first game, Jays pitching was strong. The White Sox, who are clearly better than they were last year, tended to get men on base and at least threaten here and there during games.

In the few innings where the Jays did get men on base with fewer than two outs, particularly in the win on Saturday afternoon, they couldn’t pick up any insurance runs.

It has only been one series, but it appears the magic of the dragon has disappeared, and it might be time for another stuffed animal on a stick.

Manager John Schneider says the team has “to start winning.” That’s fair.  He has tried just about everything this year.

As the first game of this week's series against the Rays proved, it isn't getting any easier.

Historically, the Jays tend to play a bit better against the Rays in Toronto (123-117), while Tampa Bay has the Jays' number in Florida, holding a 152-94 all-time record.

Schneider has started again talking about urgency, but he’s used that word before this season with little sustained benefit.

In the post-game press conference after Sunday’s game, he also talked about how the team needs to “come with the mentality that you expect to win every single day.” That’s tough when you aren’t and don’t win every game.

Confidence and momentum, especially at the professional level, are hard to quantify.

On paper, the Jays had one of the easier schedules to start the season, but in hindsight things just didn’t play out that way. Maybe it was a case of playing down to opponents.

Coming out of the All-Star break, the Jays no longer have the luxury of pointing toward an easy schedule. If anything, the remaining slate presents a significantly tougher challenge. Many of the opponents are chasing playoff spots themselves or already occupy them.

Win and the team climbs the standings, lose and they drop. If the Jays remain inconsistent, then they will hover in this “no man’s land” while staying in the hunt but not really progressing.

The Orioles just won seven in a row with a run differential this season of -14. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are the hottest team in baseball (they just snapped Baltimore's win streak), winning 14 in a row with a run differential of +46.

The Jays are 4-6 in their last 10 with a run differential of -51 for the season. They are now 5.5 games out of the Wild Card, with only three teams below them in the AL standings. 

The next closest team in the hunt, the Athletics, are 8.5 games out of the Wild Card. Their run differential is an abysmal -111.

The Jays entered the season hoping to establish a clear version of themselves. Were they a power-hitting club? A run-prevention club? A balanced contender built around versatility?

Four months later, the answer remains unclear.

Baseball history contains countless examples of teams that came alive after the All-Star break. There remains enough time for the Jays to make a push, especially with direct games remaining against competitors ahead of them.

While the Red Sox and Orioles weathered their own storms and figured out how to win ball games, the Jays have not.

In a season that feels full of stops and starts, maybe the first series after the All-Star break was just that.

The Jays can look like a team capable of beating anybody on any given night. The next night they can look completely overmatched. There have been stretches where the starting pitching carried the club. Then there have been stretches where the bullpen was the team's greatest strength. At times the defense has been excellent. At other times the offense has shown flashes of life.

Unfortunately, this season, rarely have those elements materialized at the same time.

In a season that already feels full of false starts, maybe this first series after the break was just another one. Maybe the team responds against stronger opponents and finally discovers some consistency.

Or maybe those two White Sox series, one in April and one in July, will eventually be remembered as snapshots of exactly who this team was all along.

That is the uncomfortable question facing the Blue Jays in this second half of the season. The answer will determine whether meaningful games are still being played in September or not. At this point, it is still tough to tell.