Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[TwistedLogic]

Marte in CF/RF and Biggio at 2nd would be a great way to replace Semien’s contributions. Would also mean we would have a legit 2nd CF and could punt Grichuk. Sign Dickerson back and have a pretty nice bench with Dickerson/Gurriel, Espinal/Biggio, Kirk/Jansen...

 

Still need to solve 3B though

 

Like I mentioned a few pages back, 3B is probably the most solvable position there is in the current market. Lots of reasonably priced options like Kris Bryant, Chris Taylor and Josh Donaldson, and some potentially huge moves if they become available, like a possible Nolan Arenado opt out or a trade for Jose Ramirez.

[Ryu In My House]

I like your ideas but I dont see Marte anywhere near 18 million....Im thinking a lot higher like 24 or 25 million. If in fact he is willing to do 18 Id be all over that.

 

I didn't realize he was still such a SB threat. He had ~ 45 in 2021. That shows me his wheels haven't really declined. A 3-year deal works for me. And that would mean a goodbye to Grichuk, something I think we all deserve.

[Krylian]

Marte is 33 years old. I think you guys are overestimating how much he makes given how much competition exists on the market this year.

 

That said, I'd easily go to 25M AAV on Marte on a short term deal (3 years). He's one of the few elite, available bats that fits a Blue Jays need and is also a huge defensive upgrade.

 

What do we think the Jays payroll will be for 2022?

How much of that is used up with existing contracts and arb eligible players are dealt with?

How much is left vs. how many roster spots need to be filled?

 

It's nice to dream but I'm really curious what we legitimately have to spend

[John_Havok]

What do we think the Jays payroll will be for 2022?

How much of that is used up with existing contracts and arb eligible players are dealt with?

How much is left vs. how many roster spots need to be filled?

 

It's nice to dream but I'm really curious what we legitimately have to spend

 

Without a contract between the players and owners, especially with the whole floor/luxury tax fight that's likely about to happen, it's probably more difficult than ever to try and predict what the Jays will ultimately have to spend

[TwistedLogic]

What do we think the Jays payroll will be for 2022?

How much of that is used up with existing contracts and arb eligible players are dealt with?

How much is left vs. how many roster spots need to be filled?

 

It's nice to dream but I'm really curious what we legitimately have to spend

 

Like John said, it's impossible to predict based on the looming CBA negotiations. As it stands, the Jays have about $65M tied up in guaranteed contracts (Springer, Ryu, Gurriel and Grichuk) and probably project around 120-125M after arb raises and league min deals. If they can dump Grichuk, they could easily add $50-70M and still be well clear of the luxury tax threshold as it was in 2021.

[Jimcanuck]

Like John said, it's impossible to predict based on the looming CBA negotiations. As it stands, the Jays have about $65M tied up in guaranteed contracts (Springer, Ryu, Gurriel and Grichuk) and probably project around 120-125M after arb raises and league min deals. If they can dump Grichuk, they could easily add $50-70M and still be well clear of the luxury tax threshold as it was in 2021.

 

Jays need to extend Berrios this offseason as priority #1. If we use Ryu as a comparable (as of the Ryu signing), that's 5/100, minimum. Which deducts $14M from the avail salary room. Jays would be smart to extend at least one and preferably both of Vlad and Bo long term, which would deduct a further hefty amount.

 

All this shows is the importance of having a full pipeline of prospects, which the Rays success demonstrates anyway.

[Spanky99]

Jays need to extend Berrios this offseason as priority #1. If we use Ryu as a comparable (as of the Ryu signing), that's 5/100, minimum. Which deducts $14M from the avail salary room. Jays would be smart to extend at least one and preferably both of Vlad and Bo long term, which would deduct a further hefty amount.

 

All this shows is the importance of having a full pipeline of prospects, which the Rays success demonstrates anyway.

 

Agreed, of the latter two, likely happens next year.

[glory]

A Vlad extension is going to be similar to the Tatis extension most likely. Curious to see if Shatkins would give a 12-14 year deal to a player.

[Deadpool]

A Vlad extension is going to be similar to the Tatis extension most likely. Curious to see if Shatkins would give a 12-14 year deal to a player.

 

Can you imagine the backlash if he doesn't?

[Jays24]

A Vlad extension is going to be similar to the Tatis extension most likely. Curious to see if Shatkins would give a 12-14 year deal to a player.

 

As much as I love Vladdy, I'd hesitate to give any super long term deal to a player with weight issues. Around 8 years is the most we should go, which would take him to age 30ish.

[RobinThicc]

12 years, 345-350 for Vlad is what I expect him to get.

 

He will most likely want to get a little more than Tatis. Seems like the trend is top players trying to one up each other.

 

Bo probably comes in well over 300 million too.

[John_Havok]

12 years, 345-350 for Vlad is what I expect him to get.

 

He will most likely want to get a little more than Tatis. Seems like the trend is top players trying to one up each other.

 

Bo probably comes in well over 300 million too.

 

I like Bo. But a 300 million dollar long term extension for him would be the height of lunacy.

[John_Havok]

Can you imagine the backlash if he doesn't?

 

I dont think they need to rush into a Vlad extension yet, even if we do assume a nice cordial PA/Owners negotiation that ends with rainbow parades and hand jobs all around from Taiwanese massage therapists.

 

They'll get serious about an extension with him if he shows up to camp another 20-30 pounds lighter and continues to show he is serious about keeping himself in full season + playoff shape. Last season was a great 1st step in that journey, but he needs to take another step this off-season.

[gruber92]

Sorry I haven't been following the whole thread, but doesn't Roark come off the books this year?

[Grant77]

Sorry I haven't been following the whole thread, but doesn't Roark come off the books this year?

 

Semien, Roark, Ray, Yates, Matz, and Phelps are coming off the books.

[Krylian]

Can you imagine the backlash if he doesn't?

 

Yup. And get ready for it. I don't expect this to be a smooth negotiation.

[Krylian]

12 years, 345-350 for Vlad is what I expect him to get.

 

He will most likely want to get a little more than Tatis. Seems like the trend is top players trying to one up each other.

 

Bo probably comes in well over 300 million too.

 

Lol. Bo isn't getting 300 from anyone.

[Stangstag]

Semien, Roark, Ray, Yates, Matz, and Phelps are coming off the books.

 

Yamaguchi too??

[Krylian]

I dont think they need to rush into a Vlad extension yet, even if we do assume a nice cordial PA/Owners negotiation that ends with rainbow parades and hand jobs all around from Taiwanese massage therapists.

 

They'll get serious about an extension with him if he shows up to camp another 20-30 pounds lighter and continues to show he is serious about keeping himself in full season + playoff shape. Last season was a great 1st step in that journey, but he needs to take another step this off-season.

 

I agree. Which is why I expect Vlad to maintain his weight and come back the exact same as this year. Which isn't bad, but isn't great. Luckily we still have some time with Vlad, but this contract thing is going to be a talking point for years.

[Spanky99]

I like Bo. But a 300 million dollar long term extension for him would be the height of lunacy.

 

See, here it comes up in simulations as Bo and VGJ... very close in value, but the system hasn't been updated for the off season yet. 12 year extension and Bo's getting 300, that's not ludicrous imo. That's cheap for a kid who just put up 5 WAR and getting better. He'd likely get 10 - 250.

[Stangstag]

See, here it comes up in simulations as Bo and VGJ... very close in value, but the system hasn't been updated for the off season yet. 12 year extension and Bo's getting 300, that's not ludicrous imo. That's cheap for a kid who just put up 5 WAR and getting better. He'd likely get 10 - 250.

 

The upcoming Correa and Seager deals will help establish the price for Bo.

[Spanky99]

The upcoming Correa and Seager deals will help establish the price for Bo.

 

They'll get huge dough, as will Bo but on a cheaper long term deal.

[John_Havok]

The upcoming Correa and Seager deals will help establish the price for Bo.

 

A little sure. Both of those gentleman have a massive track record of extended success and will be free agents. Bo has 1000 PAs in his career and still under control for 4 more seasons. He doesn’t even hit Arb 1 until 2023. An extension for Bo still has plenty of time to percolate.

[Dick_Pole]

Putting up $600 million for two players is a recipe for disaster in baseball. I'd prefer the wait and see approach. The team's number #1 priority right now is the short term. Keep this team as of October 4th, 2021 as intact as possible for as long as you can. But at least for next year and the two after that. Hopefully one or more World Series championships is had by then.

[Stangstag]

Putting up $600 million for two players is a recipe for disaster in baseball. I'd prefer the wait and see approach. The team's number #1 priority right now is the short term. Keep this team as of October 4th, 2021 as intact as possible for as long as you can. But at least for next year and the two after that. Hopefully one or more World Series championships is had by then.

 

Extremely disagree with this, its exactly what caused the rebuild during 2017-2019.

 

Athopoulis cared only about the short term and that got us exactly 0 World Series appearances and 3 years of s***** teams after.

 

You have to play the long game. Field a competitive team every year and hope you run into a WS title.

[max silver]

Extremely disagree with this, its exactly what caused the rebuild during 2017-2019.

 

Athopoulis cared only about the short term and that got us exactly 0 World Series appearances and 3 years of s***** teams after.

 

You have to play the long game. Field a competitive team every year and hope you run into a WS title.

 

A key difference is that the Anthopoulos didn't have any elite young talent on that team to begin with, and all of the top talent aside from Stroman were of the 30 year old+ variety. There was always going to be a short window on those teams given the nature of acquisition of the stars and the lack of a talent pipeline to replace them. This current Jays club has two franchise players, a largely young lineup, and more potential elite position player talent in the minors.

[BigCecil]

Putting up $600 million for two players is a recipe for disaster in baseball. I'd prefer the wait and see approach. The team's number #1 priority right now is the short term. Keep this team as of October 4th, 2021 as intact as possible for as long as you can. But at least for next year and the two after that. Hopefully one or more World Series championships is had by then.

 

Extremely disagree with this, its exactly what caused the rebuild during 2017-2019.

 

Athopoulis cared only about the short term and that got us exactly 0 World Series appearances and 3 years of s***** teams after.

 

You have to play the long game. Field a competitive team every year and hope you run into a WS title.

 

A key difference is that the Anthopoulos didn't have any elite young talent on that team to begin with, and all of the top talent aside from Stroman were of the 30 year old+ variety. There was always going to be a short window on those teams given the nature of acquisition of the stars and the lack of a talent pipeline to replace them. This current Jays club has two franchise players, a largely young lineup, and more potential elite position player talent in the minors.

 

That 15 team with some more luck and without an ump roto reutering their ars in Game 6 is in the WS. We had some s***** seasons after 15 and 16 but those 2 years re energized the franchise/fan base. Been a fan over 40 years and that dry spell since 93 leading up to 2015 was horrific.

 

Im with DP on taking our time. This squad is still light on developed pitching. Teams like MIL and LAD can lose elite offensive seasons from Yelich and Bellinger and still compete in large part because of arms they have developed and acquired. Rays same. Spending $500-600mm on 2 young offensive assets is something I'm happy to be patient on.

[max silver]

That 15 team with some more luck and without an ump roto reutering their ars in Game 6 is in the WS. We had some s***** seasons after 15 and 16 but those 2 years re energized the franchise/fan base. Been a fan over 40 years and that dry spell since 93 leading up to 2015 was horrific.

 

Im with DP on taking our time. This squad is still light on developed pitching. Teams like MIL and LAD can lose elite offensive seasons from Yelich and Bellinger and still compete in large part because of arms they have developed and acquired. Rays same. Spending $500-600mm on 2 young offensive assets is something I'm happy to be patient on.

 

The front office is going to need to carefully thread the needle during these next few seasons. They obviously need to maximize the current roster as much as possible while the young core is still relatively inexpensive, but also need to keep an eye on the future given how expensive these same players are going to become in the not too distant future. I see a need to hang onto the truly elite talent in the minor leagues as these players are going to need to be retained to have an opportunity at maximum production levels with low salary cost. I wouldn't move out players like Moreno and Martinez unless it were for similarly talented pre-arb players at other positions of need. While the idea of trading for players like Jose Ramirez holds obvious appeal for the short term, it would likely come at a very high cost in terms of future sustainability.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Is Rodon for real? What is his worth? 6 x $25 million? More?

 

Syndergaard for 1 x $20 million?

 

Rodon

Berrios

Syndergaard

Ryu

Manoah

 

Would probably the best rotation in MLB on paper no?

[BigCecil]

The front office is going to need to carefully thread the needle during these next few seasons. They obviously need to maximize the current roster as much as possible while the young core is still relatively inexpensive, but also need to keep an eye on the future given how expensive these same players are going to become in the not too distant future. I see a need to hang onto the truly elite talent in the minor leagues as these players are going to need to be retained to have an opportunity at maximum production levels with low salary cost. I wouldn't move out players like Moreno and Martinez unless it were for similarly talented pre-arb players at other positions of need. While the idea of trading for players like Jose Ramirez holds obvious appeal for the short term, it would likely come at a very high cost in terms of future sustainability.

 

This team can compete for a ring next year and should. Sure I want a competitive sustainable squad. Also don’t want to chase the perennial prospect carrot. For the right deal I’d give my left nut for Ramirez for the next 2 seasons.