The Most Important Game for the Blue Jays Tonight Isn’t in Toronto

The Blue Jays welcome the Tigers to the Rogers Centre tonight for a three-game series. It's a must-win matchup for Toronto, in the same way every game from here on out feels like a must-win. Yet, there is arguably an even more meaningful series for the Blue Jays taking place a few hundred kilometers south, near the shores of Lake Erie.

Over the next three days, the Guardians will face the White Sox at Progressive Field in Cleveland. If the White Sox take at least two of three from the Guardians while the Blue Jays take at least two of three from the Tigers, Toronto will be back in a Wild Card spot with nine games left to play. That's because the Jays only need to finish with the same record as the Guardians to beat them out for a postseason berth. A tie goes to the Blue Jays; they secured the season series earlier this month. 

Here's the problem.

In their last 30 games, the Guardians are 18-12. Among AL teams, only the Yankees have a better record in that span. The White Sox, on the other hand, are two games below .500 in their last 30. They're five games below .500 in their last 15. That has brought Cleveland within half a game of the division lead.

If the Guardians win this series, they will move ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. If they sweep, they will move ahead in the division and secure the season-series tiebreaker.

In that case, Chicago becomes the team to beat in the Wild Card race. And unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they lost their season series to the White Sox. So, the Guardians taking over in the AL Central would essentially push the Blue Jays an extra game back in the Wild Card standings. A tie with Cleveland gets Toronto into the playoffs, but a tie with Chicago won't cut it.

When the White Sox swept the Blue Jays in April, it felt like a frustrating loss to a team the Blue Jays really should have beaten. It was a missed opportunity to get ahead. Now, losing that series might decide the Blue Jays' season.

As for where the Blue Jays stand against their other Wild Card opponents, they have already lost the season series to the Rangers, which makes their three-game set in Arlington this weekend (yet another) must-win. Meanwhile, they need to win their series against the Orioles next week to clinch that tiebreaker. Finally, the Jays tied their season series with the Astros 3-3, which means that if the Rangers sneak ahead of the Astros in the AL West and it comes down to Houston and Toronto in the Wild Card, a Blue Jays-Astros tie would be decided by the two teams' records within their own divisions. The Blue Jays currently have the edge there; they own a 25-24 record in the AL East, compared to Houston's 22-24 record in the West. However, the Astros have six games left against the Mariners and A's to change that. 

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