Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[max silver]

Agreed that Espinal looks pretty good, but we’re still talking about very small datasets at the mlb level overall. Even for him to be an above average hitter he has to rely his babip being really high since very few of his batted balls will ever leave play. Is it possible? Sure. I wouldn’t necessarily count on it. His ceiling is just relatively low without any real game power. His K rate was halved this year, walk rate went up. Positive signs.

 

I like Espinal a lot for what he is, but for him to be a truly positive regular he has to have Elite defence and run a consistently high babip. That’s a tough ask. Defence can also fluctuate season to season due to a variety of factors.

 

I’m not saying it’s impossible, he did this year. I just don’t know that I’d be willing to bet that it continues. At worst though he’s a legit super utility guy that can pinch run and play multiple defensive IF positions that won’t embarrass himself with the bat. But his floor and ceiling aren’t that far apart.

 

As for him being a low cost Chapman replacement…I don’t think a highly analytical team like Oakland will be seeing him that way. Maybe the Pirates would….

 

Coincidentally Chapman is rapidly approaching a similar description of having a ceiling that is not that far away from his floor given his rapidly deteriorating offensive output from the last four seasons.

 

I too have a hard time seeing Espinal keeping up his current level of performance, but despite that when you compare his expected stats with Chapman there really isn't much of a gulf separating the two. Chapman produced an xWOBA of .320 vs Espinal at .311. I don't have to squint very hard to imagine Espinal producing 2.5-3 WAR in a full season of play. He didn't benefit from just one hot streak as after puking up a horrific 28 WRC+ in May he proceeded to produce a very solid 139 WRC+ over the final four months of the season. If Semien goes elsewhere and another big fish isn't acquired as an infield replacement then Espinal should absolutely upgraded upon. But if the lineup is another absolute juggernaut again for 2022 then I think Espinal is likely perfectly fine to man third base and bat down towards the bottom of the lineup.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I'm ok with one of Espinal or Biggio as a starter next season, but I don't think both is a good idea at all.

[max silver]

I'm ok with one of Espinal or Biggio as a starter next season, but I don't think both is a good idea at all.

 

I am in full agreement. That would be a rather significant downgrade to the infield. Both Espinal and Biggio in combination are unlikely to provide the same type of value that Semien does on his own. This could likely be partially offset by having a healthier Springer and continued improvements from Bo and Vlad, but that fearsome top of the lineup that the Jays rolled for the final months of 2021 just wouldn't be the same.

[Spanky99]

Maybe the Pirates would….

 

You've said this a few times recently, they overhauled that FO now, mostly poached from Toronto.

[Stangstag]

I'm ok with one of Espinal or Biggio as a starter next season, but I don't think both is a good idea at all.

 

Yeah definitely. If both are starters on opening day (not counting filling in for injuries) we’re f***ed

[max silver]

Yeah definitely. If both are starters on opening day (not counting filling in for injuries) we’re f***ed

 

I still really like the idea of a healthy Biggio in the super utility position for 2021. It remains to be seen if he can fully bounce back offensively but even if he doesn't there's still plenty of potential value in Biggio as he can play a pretty decent second base, a passable first base and not look completely out of place in the corner outfield positions while running the bases effectively. Third base is a different matter entirely however.

[Spanky99]

Yeah definitely. If both are starters on opening day (not counting filling in for injuries) we’re f***ed

 

That won't happen, likely re-sign Marcus or get Bryant, something of that ilk.

[Deadpool]

I still really like the idea of a healthy Biggio in the super utility position for 2021. It remains to be seen if he can fully bounce back offensively but even if he doesn't there's still plenty of potential value in Biggio as he can play a pretty decent second base, a passable first base and not look completely out of place in the corner outfield positions while running the bases effectively. Third base is a different matter entirely however.

 

I think Biggio would be fine manning 3B as a util guy, I just don't think he's a starter there, or anywhere other than 2B. In the likely event that Semien isn't back next year, I wouldn't HATE pencilling Biggio in as the primary 2B with some flexibility to move as needed, with Espy on the bench as the infield UTIL guy; we just need a more reliable 3B starter in that scenario.

 

I'd love it if Groshans had made the step forward to be that 3B (I honestly thought Martin would be the 3B in 2022, but I'm higher on him than most I guess...), and in a perfect world, I'd rather any 3B that we got was on a shorter-term deal in the event that Groshans really forces his way up...

[Spanky99]

Wow... was running through Steamer 600... man they think Biggio's going to suck next year at 0.8 fWAR, Espinal's at 1.9 respectively and Valera 1.5... Holy s***... didn't think he'd take that big a hit. Meh... I still believe in a "Healthy" Cavan.

[saskjayfan]

Wow... was running through Steamer 600... man they think Biggio's going to suck next year at 0.8 fWAR, Espinal's at 1.9 respectively and Valera 1.5... Holy s***... didn't think he'd take that big a hit. Meh... I still believe in a "Healthy" Cavan.

 

Statistical models don't take into account whether or not a guy played hurt though. I think Cavan will have a bounce back too.

 

So who thinks Pearson should be moved to the bullpen now, or is it too early and let him start of the year as a starter? I've always been in the he's a starter camp, but he looked really good out of the pen and we desperately need arms in the pen. I think I'm on the fence now given his injury issues

[Spanky99]

I think Biggio would be fine manning 3B as a util guy, I just don't think he's a starter there, or anywhere other than 2B. In the likely event that Semien isn't back next year, I wouldn't HATE pencilling Biggio in as the primary 2B with some flexibility to move as needed, with Espy on the bench as the infield UTIL guy; we just need a more reliable 3B starter in that scenario.

 

I'd love it if Groshans had made the step forward to be that 3B (I honestly thought Martin would be the 3B in 2022, but I'm higher on him than most I guess...), and in a perfect world, I'd rather any 3B that we got was on a shorter-term deal in the event that Groshans really forces his way up...

 

If Groshans forces his way up we trade, we'll most likely see him in '23 I believe, looking at 3rd base the only guy I see as a viable 3rd baseman on a 1/2 year deal would be J-Hay and maybe Chris Taylor both guys can play plenty of positions as well. And on a long term it'd be Bryant and maybe a SS willing to move there, assuming Semien doesn't come back, which I doubt. Might have to go the trade route. Oh, I agree about Biggio and Espinal manning 2nd base, as long as the Birds find those Wins to replace Semien, whether it's through pitching or the lumber. Going to be a crazy off-season.

[Spanky99]

Statistical models don't take into account whether or not a guy played hurt though. I think Cavan will have a bounce back too.

 

So who thinks Pearson should be moved to the bullpen now, or is it too early and let him start of the year as a starter? I've always been in the he's a starter camp, but he looked really good out of the pen and we desperately need arms in the pen. I think I'm on the fence now given his injury issues

 

Yeah, I'm aware, still a large drop. As for Big Nate they got to try starter again, if it fails, pull the plug and use him as a high leverage multi inning guy. I'm guessing this spring coming is his last kick at the can.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I was a little down on Groshans after this season, but looking at his numbers and age I guess he actually had an OK season after all.

 

At 20 Bo put up 120 wRC+ in AA and Groshans ended up with 124 wRC+ in AA as a 21 year old. The next season Bo had 244 PA's at AAA before getting promoted to the rebuilding Jays roster despite being a league average hitter in AAA. The Jays won't be rebuilding next season, so guys like Groshans and Moreno will probably have to light AAA up before getting the call, but there is still a decent chance both make their debuts next season.

 

And you also have to wonder how Lopez and Smith will fit into all of this. Lopez, Smith, Biggio, Espinal, Valera, Groshans and maybe an outside chance they get Moreno playing some 3B as well, maybe the Jays won't be spending big money on any free agent infielders this off season after all?

 

Maybe pour the money into pitching and the core players instead?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Is 3 years $15 million per enough to get Matz signed?

What about Thor? 1 year $10 million enough?

 

If yes, would you rather have Matz + Thor for $25 million next season or Ray for $25 million?

[glory]

Is 3 years $15 million per enough to get Matz signed?

What about Thor? 1 year $10 million enough?

 

If yes, would you rather have Matz + Thor for $25 million next season or Ray for $25 million?

 

I don't follow the Mets, but I'd be surprised if they didn't offer Syndergaard the qualifying offer. He hasn't pitched in 2 seasons (aside from 2 innings recently) but a 1/18 type of deal for him would still have tremendous upside. If he isn't offered the QO for whatever reason, then I'd have no issues giving him a big one year deal. Hell, you could probably justify losing a pick in the 70's (or whatever it is) to get him on a one year deal if he's given the QO considering you'll get a comp pick for Ray to balance it out, but not sure what Shatkins would do in that case, especially given the 2 years off. If you're looking for the 2022 Robbie Ray, I'd say Noah has the best shot at it.

[Deadpool]

If Groshans forces his way up we trade, we'll most likely see him in '23 I believe, looking at 3rd base the only guy I see as a viable 3rd baseman on a 1/2 year deal would be J-Hay and maybe Chris Taylor both guys can play plenty of positions as well. And on a long term it'd be Bryant and maybe a SS willing to move there, assuming Semien doesn't come back, which I doubt. Might have to go the trade route. Oh, I agree about Biggio and Espinal manning 2nd base, as long as the Birds find those Wins to replace Semien, whether it's through pitching or the lumber. Going to be a crazy off-season.

 

I'm warming up to the idea of a Donaldson trade, assuming we can dump Grich's salary in the move. I'm not interested in picking up all of JD's salary at his age and likely production level, but he'd be a good fit on a reasonable length deal (with the bonus team option if he does somehow light it up again) if we're not covering the entire salary. Obviously that would require more pieces, but I can't imagine it would be anyone in our top 10.

[Brownie19]

I'm ok with one of Espinal or Biggio as a starter next season, but I don't think both is a good idea at all.

 

Great teams need good backup players. Having either Espinal or Biggio as our first infielder off the bench (who typically gets 400-500 at bats a year anyway) is the ideal position to be in. Not sure I see value in having both on the bench unless you dump Grich and make Biggio your 4th OFer / super sub. That certainly would be a sign we have a very deep and talented team.

[Spanky99]

I'm warming up to the idea of a Donaldson trade, assuming we can dump Grich's salary in the move. I'm not interested in picking up all of JD's salary at his age and likely production level, but he'd be a good fit on a reasonable length deal (with the bonus team option if he does somehow light it up again) if we're not covering the entire salary. Obviously that would require more pieces, but I can't imagine it would be anyone in our top 10.

 

Does Minny even want Grichuk, we'd have to eat most of that contract and send Hiraldo and a lottery ticket I would think. Me no likey... lol

[Deadpool]

Does Minny even want Grichuk, we'd have to eat most of that contract and send Hiraldo and a lottery ticket I would think. Me no likey... lol

 

No, obviously they don't, but the trade is predicated on them wanting to ditch Donaldson's salary. Obviously if they aren't looking to do that, there's no trade to be made there.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Great teams need good backup players. Having either Espinal or Biggio as our first infielder off the bench (who typically gets 400-500 at bats a year anyway) is the ideal position to be in. Not sure I see value in having both on the bench unless you dump Grich and make Biggio your 4th OFer / super sub. That certainly would be a sign we have a very deep and talented team.

 

Agreed. That's why I'd be fine with, for example, letting Semien walk, putting Biggio back on 2nd and then upgrading Espinal at 3B with an acquisition like Donaldson (cheaper cost) or Ramirez (way more expensive to acquire). Espinal on the bench.

 

Or if you re-sign Semien, then you let Biggio and Espinal battle for the spot at 3B. Loser of that battle on the bench.

[Olerud363]

I was a little down on Groshans after this season, but looking at his numbers and age I guess he actually had an OK season after all.

 

At 20 Bo put up 120 wRC+ in AA and Groshans ended up with 124 wRC+ in AA as a 21 year old. The next season Bo had 244 PA's at AAA before getting promoted to the rebuilding Jays roster despite being a league average hitter in AAA. The Jays won't be rebuilding next season, so guys like Groshans and Moreno will probably have to light AAA up before getting the call, but there is still a decent chance both make their debuts next season.

 

And you also have to wonder how Lopez and Smith will fit into all of this. Lopez, Smith, Biggio, Espinal, Valera, Groshans and maybe an outside chance they get Moreno playing some 3B as well, maybe the Jays won't be spending big money on any free agent infielders this off season after all?

 

Maybe pour the money into pitching and the core players instead?

 

The problem with Groshans and Moreno are injury concerns. Without injuries they likely already would have made mlb debuts. However injuries delay development and add risk.

 

Lopez in interesting. I'm not sure how his defense is rated, however he is Espinal ++ otherwise, younger for each level, hits the ball a bit harder, stats a bit better.

 

If you think Espinal's hitting skill set works, then Lopez's might work even better.

Edited October 6, 2021 by Olerud363

[Eat My Shatkins]

No, obviously they don't, but the trade is predicated on them wanting to ditch Donaldson's salary. Obviously if they aren't looking to do that, there's no trade to be made there.

 

Exactly. I have no idea if they want that or not, but it's an unrealistic assumption that they could be interested in saving $20 million by moving out a 36 year old player when they just finished last in the central. It just depends on whether they think they can bounce back next season or not and compete for a wild card in 2022.

[Brownie19]

No, obviously they don't, but the trade is predicated on them wanting to ditch Donaldson's salary. Obviously if they aren't looking to do that, there's no trade to be made there.

 

This. Nobody wants Grich unless it allows you to dump even more salary and save money as you attempt to re-tool/re-build your team. Minny has some talented young players, but the pitching is a mess so I suspect they will re-build - which makes a JD reunion plausible.

 

I think Grich + a mid tier prospect (Leo or Kloff) for JD could be possible. They save money and get a lottery ticket to help them restock the system.

[Spanky99]

No, obviously they don't, but the trade is predicated on them wanting to ditch Donaldson's salary. Obviously if they aren't looking to do that, there's no trade to be made there.

 

Right, I just went through the trade simulator, man, that trade I just mentioned isn't even close, I'm way off. Donaldson with that contract ain't worth s***. My bad.

[Spanky99]

This. Nobody wants Grich unless it allows you to dump even more salary and save money as you attempt to re-tool/re-build your team. Minny has some talented young players, but the pitching is a mess so I suspect they will re-build - which makes a JD reunion plausible.

 

I think Grich + a mid tier prospect (Leo or Kloff) for JD could be possible. They save money and get a lottery ticket to help them restock the system.

 

According to this simulator, we're still getting raked over the coals in that trade, I think Deadpool is right... Minny has to eat a good portion of that contract to make it reasonable, at least 15M.

Edited October 6, 2021 by Spanky99

[glory]

I miss JD on the team as much as anyone, but do we really want him as the starting 3B in 2022-23? He was a 2 WAR player in 2021 while staying pretty healthy all season (543 PA). The defense isn't great anymore and he's become a bad baserunner on top of that (lots of lower body injuries adding up?). Grichuk is awful and not having him on the roster would be incredible, but I think having JD at age 36-37 probably doesn't move the needle much, if at all. On top of that he makes $21m in 2022, $21m in 2023, and then $6M in 2024 (buyout), with a $2m assignment bonus when he's traded. Even factoring the difference between his and Grichuk's contracts, that's still adding over $30m in payroll over 3 years for a player on the decline.

[Sammy225]

I was going to ask what a kyle seager platoon would look like but his numbers don't really skew anyway. A JD trade would be nice if they eat some contract and take grich.

[Olerud363]

I was going to ask what a kyle seager platoon would look like but his numbers don't really skew anyway. A JD trade would be nice if they eat some contract and take grich.

 

Just glancing at Seager's career splits it looks like he has a .333 on base against righties and .299 against lefties. Espinal is low sample size but is much better against righties.

 

Espinal/Seager platoon based on current life time splits would be good.

 

Espinal alone based on current lifetime stats would be very good if real... all this talk is based on the assumption that Espinal isn't real.

 

Looking at Seager's value a 2-24 contract is perhaps fair.

 

What would you rather have ?

 

Seager - 2 / 24

 

Or Donaldson with the trade cost of getting Minn. to pay enough so he's 2/24 ? Maybe that trade cost is nothing because Donaldson is only worth 2/18 right now?

[Olerud363]

I am going on and on about Kyle Seager, but no real attachment. Just a guy that I think could be available.

 

a) I agree you may not "need" Seager because in-house (Biggio, Espinal, prospects) may be just as good

but I still want him for depth, Biggio/Espinal/Prospects still play because injuries happens, I'm looking for ways to build enough depth to avoid the negative WAR crap that would be below Biggio/Espinal on the depth chart.

 

I mean Biggio/Espinal themselves got injured and you had Lamb playing in key September games, had Joe Panic playing a bunch early for some reason. Avoid that kind of thing n 2022.

[Deadpool]

I miss JD on the team as much as anyone, but do we really want him as the starting 3B in 2022-23? He was a 2 WAR player in 2021 while staying pretty healthy all season (543 PA). The defense isn't great anymore and he's become a bad baserunner on top of that (lots of lower body injuries adding up?). Grichuk is awful and not having him on the roster would be incredible, but I think having JD at age 36-37 probably doesn't move the needle much, if at all. On top of that he makes $21m in 2022, $21m in 2023, and then $6M in 2024 (buyout), with a $2m assignment bonus when he's traded. Even factoring the difference between his and Grichuk's contracts, that's still adding over $30m in payroll over 3 years for a player on the decline.

 

I'm looking for a bridge to one of our prospects, so someone who is decent, not great, but a (likely) upgrade over Espinal as the every day 3B (moving him to a UTIL role in the process). I guess the math is "is Donaldson worth $12M/year + the buyout more than what Grichuk is worth". I think he is, but I can understand disagreeing with that.

 

Regardless, I'm not married to the idea, just think it's a possible scenario that doesn't tie up too much of the payroll that we're going to need for Vladdy/Bo eventually, and doesn't significantly block Groshans/Moreno/another prospect taking a step forward.