Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[glory]

I don't think Bichette having a 4 WAR next season would be an unreasonable expectation, but everyone else currently on the roster for 2024? I wouldn't bank on it.

 

This entire window was predicated on Vlad and Bo being superstars, meaning 5-6+ WAR players. That simply is not the case. The best player on the team is Bo and he's closer to a 3-4 WAR level player. Clearly Vlad is no where near a superstar player, and there's just too much volatility in his expected performance to bank on him as a core player. He could be a 4+ WAR player or he could be replacement level and neither option would be all that surprising at this point. Either way, expecting anything resembling 2021 at this point would be insane, and they kinda need him to be 2021 Vlad in order to have a real chance.

 

If Atkins is still here, then I'm expecting this off-season and possibly next trade deadline to be his AA 2015 moment. He's going to go all in whether it hurts the long term outlook of the team or not. I just don't know if a star of that caliber is available. Maybe Luis Robert, and if you absorb Moncada's contract at the same time maybe the price would drop a bit, but otherwise I can't think of any player that stands out. Maybe Soto. I guess more names will become known after the playoffs end.

[connorp]

I might just be dense, but I'm still not sure if your model was able to foresee that Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham were more real stars than Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. I think yes, because you correctly identified that the Diamondbacks would beat the Dodgers. I just wish you had said something before their series started so I could have made money with you betting the underdog.

 

I didn’t claim to make a prediction but I don’t think the Dodgers were quite set up great. As you know, I’ll have Bobby Miller pitching in the BORED finals next season and I as rooting for him to take his star turn. I also wouldn’t have guessed that for Kershaw. I think it www understood that losing Urias and expecting so much in a rookie like Miller come post season was concerning

[Terminator]

Who came up with this arbitrary 4 WAR number?

 

Why do we have to add a player of that caliber? Why not 3.5 or 4.5?

[BigCecil]

Could’ve had the big hit in game 2 if Vlad hadn’t robbed him of the opportunity.

 

Imagine being in the league since 2019 and getting picked off at 2B as the tying run with a runner in front of you, with your best hitter all year in a full count against a tiring pitcher on his last batter, in a playoff elimination game. Wake me up from this bad dream.

[wilko]

Imagine being in the league since 2019 and getting picked off at 2B as the tying run with a runner in front of you, with your best hitter all year in a full count against a tiring pitcher on his last batter, in a playoff elimination game. Wake me up from this bad dream.

 

[Spanky99]

I'm curious about what you make of the Dodgers stars like Freeman and Betts doing nothing. Does your model separate fake stars like them from real stars like Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham?

 

I love reading these interactions with connorp, he gets clowned on everytime, lol.

[Spanky99]

I don't think Bichette having a 4 WAR next season would be an unreasonable expectation, but everyone else currently on the roster for 2024? I wouldn't bank on it.

 

This entire window was predicated on Vlad and Bo being superstars, meaning 5-6+ WAR players. That simply is not the case. The best player on the team is Bo and he's closer to a 3-4 WAR level player. Clearly Vlad is no where near a superstar player, and there's just too much volatility in his expected performance to bank on him as a core player. He could be a 4+ WAR player or he could be replacement level and neither option would be all that surprising at this point. Either way, expecting anything resembling 2021 at this point would be insane, and they kinda need him to be 2021 Vlad in order to have a real chance.

 

If Atkins is still here, then I'm expecting this off-season and possibly next trade deadline to be his AA 2015 moment. He's going to go all in whether it hurts the long term outlook of the team or not. I just don't know if a star of that caliber is available. Maybe Luis Robert, and if you absorb Moncada's contract at the same time maybe the price would drop a bit, but otherwise I can't think of any player that stands out. Maybe Soto. I guess more names will become known after the playoffs end.

 

Bo's a 4-5 Win player, just saying.

[TorontonianJD]

So Dan Shulman said on Blair and Barker that maybe the Jays go out and sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr this off season to play left field. My comment is, why the heck would LGJ want to play for this disfunctional Jays team and why wouldn’t he want to resign with Arizona seeing the situation they are at right now! I think to sign LGJ would mean having to massively over pay to get him to come here.

[Brownie19]

So Dan Shulman said on Blair and Barker that maybe the Jays go out and sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr this off season to play left field. My comment is, why the heck would LGJ want to play for this disfunctional Jays team and why wouldn’t he want to resign with Arizona seeing the situation they are at right now! I think to sign LGJ would mean having to massively over pay to get him to come here.

 

Do you follow baseball at all? LGJ isn't a very good player. He will go to whichever team offers him a starting spot and the most money. End of story.

[Brownie19]

Bo's a 4-5 Win player, just saying.

 

This is correct. 5.1 and 4.5 the previous 2 years, plus a 4.5 pace this past year.

[connorp]

I love reading these interactions with connorp, he gets clowned on everytime, lol.

 

Often when we seek out reading material, we’re just looking for confirmation of our own beliefs.

[Spanky99]

So Dan Shulman said on Blair and Barker that maybe the Jays go out and sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr this off season to play left field. My comment is, why the heck would LGJ want to play for this disfunctional Jays team and why wouldn’t he want to resign with Arizona seeing the situation they are at right now! I think to sign LGJ would mean having to massively over pay to get him to come here.

 

lmao

[xposbrad]

I don't think Bichette having a 4 WAR next season would be an unreasonable expectation, but everyone else currently on the roster for 2024? I wouldn't bank on it.

 

This entire window was predicated on Vlad and Bo being superstars, meaning 5-6+ WAR players. That simply is not the case. The best player on the team is Bo and he's closer to a 3-4 WAR level player. Clearly Vlad is no where near a superstar player, and there's just too much volatility in his expected performance to bank on him as a core player. He could be a 4+ WAR player or he could be replacement level and neither option would be all that surprising at this point. Either way, expecting anything resembling 2021 at this point would be insane, and they kinda need him to be 2021 Vlad in order to have a real chance.

 

If Atkins is still here, then I'm expecting this off-season and possibly next trade deadline to be his AA 2015 moment. He's going to go all in whether it hurts the long term outlook of the team or not. I just don't know if a star of that caliber is available. Maybe Luis Robert, and if you absorb Moncada's contract at the same time maybe the price would drop a bit, but otherwise I can't think of any player that stands out. Maybe Soto. I guess more names will become known after the playoffs end.

 

I am in agreement with you. I also believe even with the patch jobs that Toronto adds next year, assuming they don't add 2 very impactful bats + starter, that they won't even make the playoffs next year. I also don't think we have such a great core so I see next year the last for Atkins if the Jays don't make the playoffs. Vlad is going to make 20m next year, and really should be a fulltime DH. How high do we need payroll to be to actually be good? Atkins isn't that good.

[TorontonianJD]

Do you follow baseball at all? LGJ isn't a very good player. He will go to whichever team offers him a starting spot and the most money. End of story.

 

He’s definitely better offensively than Varsho!!

[jaysblue]

Do you follow baseball at all? LGJ isn't a very good player. He will go to whichever team offers him a starting spot and the most money. End of story.

 

Yeah LGJ isn't a perfect player, but considering the Jays offensive struggles this season, having a bat like him would have been nice, even if added at the deadline. Those 24 HR's would have been helpful and would have been second best on the team.

 

I don't think teams will be lining up to sign a corner OF/DH like him but he'll definitely have a couple of suitors. Likely will get a 2 year deal max from someone.

[Stangstag]

Yeah LGJ isn't a perfect player, but considering the Jays offensive struggles this season, having a bat like him would have been nice, even if added at the deadline. Those 24 HR's would have been helpful and would have been second best on the team.

 

Question is does he actually hit 20+ homeruns as a blue jays though. Our entire lineup lost their power seemingly overnight.

[jaysblue]

This is correct. 5.1 and 4.5 the previous 2 years, plus a 4.5 pace this past year.

 

I'm not worried about Bo at all. His defense can be painful to watch at times, but his bat is elite and if healthy should be good for 4-5 WAR easily again. Hoping he really puts together a monster year since he's coming close to free agency. Would be sweet if we got a 6-7 WAR season out of him.

[jaysblue]

Question is does he actually hit 20+ homeruns as a blue jays though. Our entire lineup lost their power seemingly overnight.

 

Yeah we don't know haha. Bo was really the only bat who performed to his expectations out of the group. You had both Belt and KK who stayed healthy and were solid offensively, but nothing spectacular.

 

Something was definitely up with their approach and coaching this season. For an entire lineup to struggle as a whole, it wasn't just bad luck.

[BigCecil]

Yeah LGJ isn't a perfect player, but considering the Jays offensive struggles this season, having a bat like him would have been nice, even if added at the deadline. Those 24 HR's would have been helpful and would have been second best on the team.

 

I don't think teams will be lining up to sign a corner OF/DH like him but he'll definitely have a couple of suitors. Likely will get a 2 year deal max from someone.

 

A 113 career bat low BB rate guy with 20 HRs 3 times who sucks on D. Career highs in HRs and WAR in '23. Solid bat to ball skills. I think someone will overpay on a 2 + 1 option deal in a weak market. He is worth a look I think. He is what he is at this point I think.

[Spanky99]

A 113 career bat low BB rate guy with 20 HRs 3 times who sucks on D. Career highs in HRs and WAR in '23. Solid bat to ball skills. I think someone will overpay on a 2 + 1 option deal in a weak market. He is worth a look I think. He is what he is at this point I think.

 

I'd much rather Teo. He's put up far better seasons in the past.

[BigCecil]

I'd much rather Teo. He's put up far better seasons in the past.

100%. Just shooting the breeze on possible options.

[L54]

I am in agreement with you. I also believe even with the patch jobs that Toronto adds next year, assuming they don't add 2 very impactful bats + starter, that they won't even make the playoffs next year. I also don't think we have such a great core so I see next year the last for Atkins if the Jays don't make the playoffs. Vlad is going to make 20m next year, and really should be a fulltime DH. How high do we need payroll to be to actually be good? Atkins isn't that good.

 

This is a fair assessment. Can’t assume you’re going to have the leagues best staff again and the rest of the league is going to be looking to improve (SEA, NYY, BOS, CLE)

[Dick_Pole]

You all are arguing over guys like Hernandez like he's going to be the difference maker to the team. It's clear now that this is a dysfunctional and poisoned team culture and there is more going on behind the scenes than we know. It's going to be an uphill battle until both of these people are jettisoned from the team:

 

1. Atkins (and his team of nerds).

2. Guerrero.

 

If I rant too much it'll just get deleted again so I'll just leave it at that. Get rid of the cancers and this team should become what it is on paper, assuming good health. A 95ish win team that is "built for the playoffs".

[Dick_Pole]

I dunno why people are saying the Yankees are going to improve. They are sacked with multiple ridiculously bad contracts on aging or expired players. More money can't fix the problem because they are facing the same weak FA pool as everyone else. Even if they sign Ohtani the Yankees still aren't a playoff team without a miraculous turn around of multiple players. Brian Cashman got exposed and the team isn't going anywhere until they can him.

[L54]

I dunno why people are saying the Yankees are going to improve. They are sacked with multiple ridiculously bad contracts on aging or expired players. More money can't fix the problem because they are facing the same weak FA pool as everyone else. Even if they sign Ohtani the Yankees still aren't a playoff team without a miraculous turn around of multiple players. Brian Cashman got exposed and the team isn't going anywhere until they can him.

 

I don’t think anyone has said this other than me in my post that had the Yankees in parentheses that they will try and improve

[Dick_Pole]

I've seen other posts (maybe yours?) saying that Boston and New York will improve next year so the division will be even harder. Nah, no they won't. Outside of the Ohtani signing, I don't see a major power shift happening for any team really. A handful of absolutely terrible teams, a couple that are heads above the rest and mostly a bunch of 85ish win teams that will vie for the playoffs.

[Masterbather]

I've seen other posts (maybe yours?) saying that Boston and New York will improve next year so the division will be even harder. Nah, no they won't. Outside of the Ohtani signing, I don't see a major power shift happening for any team really. A handful of absolutely terrible teams, a couple that are heads above the rest and mostly a bunch of 85ish win teams that will vie for the playoffs.

The Yankees will absolutely have a better year, Red Sox probably will as well. Given our question marks I wouldn't be surprised if one or both have a better season.

[Terminator]

The Yankees will absolutely have a better year, Red Sox probably will as well. Given our question marks I wouldn't be surprised if one or both have a better season.

 

Lmao

[jaysblue]

I would never count out the Yankees or Red Sox given that they could just spend money at anytime.

 

Red Sox won 78 games this season in what was considered a rebuild year. They actually played good baseball earlier on and were around .500 most of the season until the final couple of weeks. They even gave the Jays a tough time earlier in the year. They could make the jump maybe to 82-85 wins possibly.

 

As for the Yankees, they just need to open up their wallets and they could be back being a 90 win team. They won 82 games this season considering all the disappointing years from certain players and pitchers.

 

We'll see what happens this offseason.

[Laika]

The Red Sox were NOT rebuilding on purpose. They signed Turner, Yoshida, Jansen, Duvall, Paxton, Chris Martin, Kluber. They previously brought in Story.

 

They just sucked. They ended up looking like a rebuilding team at the end of the year though.