Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[Krylian]

Pretty good new article from the Toronto Star

 

"Blue Jays are clear early losers in the Gabriel Moreno-Lourdes Gurriel Jr. trade. Nobody of sound mind would do it again"

 

https://www.thestar.com/sports/blue-jays/blue-jays-are-clear-early-losers-in-the-gabriel-moreno-lourdes-gurriel-jr-trade-nobody/article_ba0632a9-1a51-5b9b-90e9-0a9853929cc0.html

 

Not often I find myself agreeing with this publication, but they hit the nail on the head with this one.

 

"Catcher Gabriel Moreno and left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Two players who used to be a source of inspiration around these parts now represent a black eye of sorts for an organization that traded them away for light-hitting outfielder Daulton Varsho.". That truly does sum it up with a nice little bow.

 

What's worse is being disingenuous about it and pretending like it's still a solid move.

[max silver]

Is this the worst trade in Blue Jays history? I don't think any trade has backfired so spectacularly and so quickly for the Jays before.

 

Nowhere close. Unless you just started paying attention to the Blue Jays in the last few years I don't know how you could even suggest this to be the case.

[Omar]

Nowhere close. Unless you just started paying attention to the Blue Jays in the last few years I don't know how you could even suggest this to be the case.

 

Michael Young has entered the chat.

[Ryu In My House]

What's worse is being disingenuous about it and pretending like it's still a solid move.

 

What sort of statement or message from the front office would you like to see?

[Krylian]

What sort of statement or message from the front office would you like to see?

 

We screwed up.

[BTS]

We screwed up.

 

They'd never say that, but why would they say it now? Gurriel had almost no value - he was a 2-win corner OF who's a free agent this offseason and won't get a QO. He would have been almost free if Arizona had sold at the deadline. The meat of the trade was 6 years of Moreno vs. 4 years of Varsho. They were about a wash in 2023. Moreno has to be a perennial all-star for this to actually register as a significant long-term mistake. And maybe he will be that, but it remains to be seen. Most likely outcome is probably that Moreno puts up like 10-12 WAR over the next 5 years year and Varsho puts up like 6-8 over the next 3.

 

I can't believe the hysterics over this, and I would have fired Atkins like two weeks ago

[Sorrow]

Is this the worst trade in Blue Jays history? I don't think any trade has backfired so spectacularly and so quickly for the Jays before.

 

Off the top of my head we have The Dickey, Marlins, Tulo, Olerud, Sirotka, Loiza trades are easily among the worst trades this organization have ever done.

 

This trade was fine. Gurriel had limited value and Moreno is still a question mark. A lot of the defensive side of his game is questionable and his bat was league average this year. It's going to be fun to look back on the Varsho/Moreno trade in 3-4 years and see where stuff sits, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Varsho puts up 12-14 fWAR in his 4 seasons in Toronto and I'd expected 10-12 for Moreno in his 6 with the Diamondbacks.

[connorp]

They'd never say that, but why would they say it now? Gurriel had almost no value - he was a 2-win corner OF who's a free agent this offseason and won't get a QO. He would have been almost free if Arizona had sold at the deadline. The meat of the trade was 6 years of Moreno vs. 4 years of Varsho. They were about a wash in 2023. Moreno has to be a perennial all-star for this to actually register as a significant long-term mistake. And maybe he will be that, but it remains to be seen. Most likely outcome is probably that Moreno puts up like 10-12 WAR over the next 5 years year and Varsho puts up like 6-8 over the next 3.

 

I can't believe the hysterics over this, and I would have fired Atkins like two weeks ago

 

I feel like my playoff roster construction debate is like 1/10 of a dead horse as the Moreno trade

[Brownie19]

They'd never say that, but why would they say it now? Gurriel had almost no value - he was a 2-win corner OF who's a free agent this offseason and won't get a QO. He would have been almost free if Arizona had sold at the deadline. The meat of the trade was 6 years of Moreno vs. 4 years of Varsho. They were about a wash in 2023. Moreno has to be a perennial all-star for this to actually register as a significant long-term mistake. And maybe he will be that, but it remains to be seen. Most likely outcome is probably that Moreno puts up like 10-12 WAR over the next 5 years year and Varsho puts up like 6-8 over the next 3.

 

I can't believe the hysterics over this, and I would have fired Atkins like two weeks ago

 

I find it incredible difficult to understand how fans see it any other way. I understand fans are irrational at times, but the success of the Diamondbacks in the playoffs shouldn't really be changing your view of this trade.

 

Is anyone who feels this might be one of the worst trades in history actually able to articulate why they feel that way? What do you think the probability of Moreno becoming a 5+ WAR superstar are? Do you just struggle to understand how someone with a low average can still be valuable?

 

Obviously there's a lot of people who fall into this category - because the Toronto Star is writing and article as click bait. Help us understand your side better.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

The thing is Varsho came with incredibly low upside and incredibly high downside. Sure, you could see Varsho adding a little more power in Toronto but his Statcast page in 2022 was very poor. Meanwhile Moreno was basically all upside. If you trade Moreno, you have to get someone with more upside than Varsho, who was essentially 2021 Bradley Zimmer for us this year.

[BTS]

The thing is Varsho came with incredibly low upside and incredibly high downside. Sure, you could see Varsho adding a little more power in Toronto but his Statcast page in 2022 was very poor. Meanwhile Moreno was basically all upside. If you trade Moreno, you have to get someone with more upside than Varsho, who was essentially 2021 Bradley Zimmer for us this year.

 

But he literally had a 5-war season last year

[Sorrow]

But he literally had a 5-war season last year

 

And paced 4.5+ in 2021 will a full season of at bats.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

But he literally had a 5-war season last year

 

Great, you can read a Fangraphs page. We bought at the peak of Varsho value. Atkins bought high. In classical economics, typically you wish to "buy low" (unless, of course you are trading for a bona-fide super star, but I doubt many would claim Varsho to be one).

 

Varsho's Statcast page did not paint a picture of sustainable, above average production at the plate. And his most recent 2023 campaign of an 85 wRC+ just kind of shows that. Now I'm not saying Varsho can't be good in the future. Just that the trade came with lots of downside at the time.

[BTS]

Great, you can read a Fangraphs page. We bought at the peak of Varsho value. Atkins bought high. In classical economics, typically you wish to "buy low" (unless, of course you are trading for a bona-fide super star, but I doubt many would claim Varsho to be one).

 

Most good teams don't actually operate this way.

[Brownie19]

The thing is Varsho came with incredibly low upside and incredibly high downside. Sure, you could see Varsho adding a little more power in Toronto but his Statcast page in 2022 was very poor. Meanwhile Moreno was basically all upside. If you trade Moreno, you have to get someone with more upside than Varsho, who was essentially 2021 Bradley Zimmer for us this year.

 

The issue is this isn't really true. Varsho comes with very little downside. He didn't hit anywhere near his career averages or projections this year and still provided a 2+ WAR season.

 

He's already provided a 5 WAR season, so we know there is indeed upside. His value just may not come in the traditional ways and I understand some fans struggle with that. He also does have some upside though. He's entering his prime years - and he's had more success with the bat in the minors (than he's shown in the majors so far).

 

Varsho's value probably ranges between 2 and 5 WAR per year. It's pretty easy to see him landing between 3 and 4 WAR next year. It's pretty hard to see him being shittier than he was this past year and thus 2 WAR probably represents the floor.

 

Moreno was a top catching prospect. He came with risk as there have been SEVERAL top catching prospects who have flopped throughout the years. He has much higher downside than Varsho (especially when you consider he'd shown absolutely now power since his hand injury...which continued throughout this season until the past 6-8 weeks).

 

That said - I can certainly understand the position that he has more upside than Varsho. When will he get there? Maybe it's next year, maybe it takes 4-5 years like it did with Jansen and several other top catchers. Keep in mind that development isn't always linear. Kirk is a great example of that. Catching is hard. Even if he does become a star - what's that look like? That very well could be a handful of 4-6 WAR seasons. Time will tell.

 

This trade very well may not go in Toronto's favour, but this isn't a catastrophic trade like Yordan for Josh Fields, or Tatis for James Shields. Let's step back from the cliff shall we?

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Most good teams don't actually operate this way.

 

Are you suggesting that teams don't see tweaks they can make in players to produce more value out of them that other teams cannot? Did the Dodgers just luck into Muncy and Justin Turner? And you are a mod? Hmmm.

[max silver]

Great, you can read a Fangraphs page. We bought at the peak of Varsho value. Atkins bought high. In classical economics, typically you wish to "buy low" (unless, of course you are trading for a bona-fide super star, but I doubt many would claim Varsho to be one).

 

Varsho's Statcast page did not paint a picture of sustainable, above average production at the plate. And his most recent 2023 campaign of an 85 wRC+ just kind of shows that. Now I'm not saying Varsho can't be good in the future. Just that the trade came with lots of downside at the time.

 

Get out of here with this nonsense about "buying high". Varsho was only a regular for 1.5 seasons in MLB, and was on average well over a 4+ win player in each of these. This was a player that displayed himself to be a well above average major league contributor and also produced great numbers as a minor league player so there was also hope he could improve at the plate.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

The issue is this isn't really true. Varsho comes with very little downside. He didn't hit anywhere near his career averages or projections this year and still provided a 2+ WAR season.

 

He's already provided a 5 WAR season, so we know there is indeed upside. His value just may not come in the traditional ways and I understand some fans struggle with that. He also does have some upside though. He's entering his prime years - and he's had more success with the bat in the minors (than he's shown in the majors so far).

 

Varsho's value probably ranges between 2 and 5 WAR per year. It's pretty easy to see him landing between 3 and 4 WAR next year. It's pretty hard to see him being shittier than he was this past year and thus 2 WAR probably represents the floor.

 

Moreno was a top catching prospect. He came with risk as there have been SEVERAL top catching prospects who have flopped throughout the years. He has much higher downside than Varsho (especially when you consider he'd shown absolutely now power since his hand injury...which continued throughout this season until the past 6-8 weeks).

 

That said - I can certainly understand the position that he has more upside than Varsho. When will he get there? Maybe it's next year, maybe it takes 4-5 years like it did with Jansen and several other top catchers. Keep in mind that development isn't always linear. Kirk is a great example of that. Catching is hard. Even if he does become a star - what's that look like? That very well could be a handful of 4-6 WAR seasons. Time will tell.

 

This trade very well may not go in Toronto's favour, but this isn't a catastrophic trade like Yordan for Josh Fields, or Tatis for James Shields. Let's step back from the cliff shall we?

 

See , the thing is this isn't really true. Varsho had a .298 xWOBA in 2022 and .303 WOBA in 2023. Seems like that was the downside right there?

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Get out of here with this nonsense about "buying high". Varsho was only a regular for 1.5 seasons in MLB, and was on average well over a 4+ win player in each of these. This was a player that displayed himself to be a well above average major league contributor and also produced great numbers as a minor league player so there was also hope he could improve at the plate.

 

Want to make a bet? In 10 years if Varsho's 2022 was his peak, I win. Otherwise, you win. 100 bucks?

[BTS]

Are you suggesting that teams don't see tweaks they can make in players to produce more value out of them that other teams cannot? Did the Dodgers just luck into Muncy and Justin Turner? And you are a mod? Hmmm.

 

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying most good teams aren't relying on buying low and selling high as a principle of roster construction. The Rays rely on throwing a bunch of s*** at the wall, seeing what sticks, and then trading the sticky s*** when salary becomes a concern. Most teams don't operate like that, at least not consistently. LAD, STL, ATL have been paying sticker price for proven MLB guys for years. TEX and PHI do the same. Toronto identified a player they liked, who had four years of control, and they pulled the trigger. Not every acquisition needs to be distressed asset that you're buying on the cheap. It's OK to acquire players coming off of very good seasons. The best teams in the league do it as a matter of course.

[max silver]

Want to make a bet? In 10 years if Varsho's 2022 was his peak, I win. Otherwise, you win. 100 bucks?

 

I'm not the gambling type so I'll pass on that offer. If you remember this 10 years from now feel free to come here to gloat about it.

[max silver]

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying most good teams aren't relying on buying low and selling high as a principle of roster construction. The Rays rely on throwing a bunch of s*** at the wall, seeing what sticks, and then trading the sticky s*** when salary becomes a concern. Most teams don't operate like that, at least not consistently. LAD, STL, ATL have been paying sticker price for proven MLB guys for years. TEX and PHI do the same. Toronto identified a player they liked, who had four years of control, and they pulled the trigger. Not every acquisition needs to be distressed asset that you're buying on the cheap. It's OK to acquire players coming off of very good seasons. The best teams in the league do it as a matter of course.

 

The people that complaining about "buying high" act like its a bad thing to trade for players who are coming off successful seasons.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

I find that looking at players with a Bayesian mindset really helps. You have to think about the probabilities of events occurring based on your prior beliefs, and those prior beliefs may be based on many things. For me, I'm always skeptical of defensive first players who straddle the line of league average at the plate. True, if they are league average they provide tremendous value. But if their bat ever falters they lose tremendous value.

 

A good example might be Andrelton Simmons, who had back to back 4.9 and 4.5 win seasons (age 27 and 28). He played amazing defense and was barely above league average with the bat. In his next 4 seasons he had 2.9 war TOTAL. That's the downside that Varsho has.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying most good teams aren't relying on buying low and selling high as a principle of roster construction. The Rays rely on throwing a bunch of s*** at the wall, seeing what sticks, and then trading the sticky s*** when salary becomes a concern. Most teams don't operate like that, at least not consistently. LAD, STL, ATL have been paying sticker price for proven MLB guys for years. TEX and PHI do the same. Toronto identified a player they liked, who had four years of control, and they pulled the trigger. Not every acquisition needs to be distressed asset that you're buying on the cheap. It's OK to acquire players coming off of very good seasons. The best teams in the league do it as a matter of course.

 

You're completely right! I'm not saying you shouldn't trade value or pay up for good players. But those players have to be ACTUAL superstars. To me personally, a defensive specialist with around a league average bat is NOT a guy you want to push all your chips in on. To you, he was! That's completely fair. We'll see in the next 3 years who was right, but I disagree with the move.

 

Personally, I would love to trade Tiedmann this winter for an actual superstar. Just not for Varsho.

[max silver]

The thing is Varsho came with incredibly low upside and incredibly high downside. Sure, you could see Varsho adding a little more power in Toronto but his Statcast page in 2022 was very poor. Meanwhile Moreno was basically all upside. If you trade Moreno, you have to get someone with more upside than Varsho, who was essentially 2021 Bradley Zimmer for us this year.

 

Moreno spent several seasons slapping singles as his primary offensive contribution. There was no guarantee he was ever going to produce reasonable power numbers at the plate in the future as he had an overwhelmingly ground ball heavy profile, middling exit velocity numbers and very few of his fly balls left the park. Each team in this trade was seemingly making a respective gamble on whether the power would eventually return to his game which would ultimately determine his long term offensive upside.

 

I would love to go back in time and see Moreno avoid the hand injury he suffered in his AA breakout season as this may have been what sapped his power for several calendar years afterwards, but I still have no issue with the Varsho/Moreno trade as it occurred. The Blue Jays were acquiring an elite defender with a league average bat who would likely provide 4 or more wins in center field while trading a prospect who was one of three MLB ready catchers where they only had spots for two. The team enjoyed MLB's most valuable catching tandem in 2022 so it would be perfectly defensible to trade any of the three. I think the greatest error was acquiring one of baseball's best outfield defenders and sticking him in left field as that seems to be his least effective outfield position defensively which was bore out by the numbers.

[Brownie19]

I find that looking at players with a Bayesian mindset really helps. You have to think about the probabilities of events occurring based on your prior beliefs, and those prior beliefs may be based on many things. For me, I'm always skeptical of defensive first players who straddle the line of league average at the plate. True, if they are league average they provide tremendous value. But if their bat ever falters they lose tremendous value.

 

A good example might be Andrelton Simmons, who had back to back 4.9 and 4.5 win seasons (age 27 and 28). He played amazing defense and was barely above league average with the bat. In his next 4 seasons he had 2.9 war TOTAL. That's the downside that Varsho has.

 

Simmons was also a good example of a defense first player who actually got better with age and improved his hitting in his peak years (27 and 28). That's a good example of the upside that Varsho has.

 

There's always a possibility that a player falls off the cliff, no matter what their skill set is. I can provide example of good hitters who completely died at age 29 also. I think there's a very high probability that Varsho's floor is a 2 WAR player. Obviously nobody wants to see that - and if he's hitting the floor for the next 3 years, we'll probably all agree that trade was a flop. But most players have a much lower floor than that. Defense and speed rarely take days off - especially when you're under 30 years old.

[max silver]

The thing you seem to be ignoring is that Moreno barely provided a league average bat in 2023 as he ended up at 103 WRC+. It took a 6 week hot streak to even get him to that point, so his future offensive potential is far from guaranteed.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Moreno spent several seasons slapping singles as his primary offensive contribution. There was no guarantee he was ever going to produce reasonable power numbers at the plate in the future as he had an overwhelmingly ground ball heavy profile, middling exit velocity numbers and very few of his fly balls left the park. Each team in this trade was seemingly making a respective gamble on whether the power would eventually return to his game which would ultimately determine his long term offensive upside.

 

I would love to go back in time and see Moreno avoid the hand injury he suffered in his AA breakout season as this may have been what sapped his power for several calendar years afterwards, but I still have no issue with the Varsho/Moreno trade as it occurred. The Blue Jays were acquiring an elite defender with a league average bat who would likely provide 4 or more wins in center field while trading a prospect who was one of three MLB ready catchers where they only had spots for two. The team enjoyed MLB's most valuable catching tandem in 2022 so it would be perfectly defensible to trade any of the three. I think the greatest error was acquiring one of baseball's best outfield defenders and sticking him in left field as that seems to be his least effective outfield position defensively which was bore out by the numbers.

 

Honestly I don;t really hate the trade in a vacuum either, although it may appear I do. I think that most of the backlash comes from the fact that Atkins really needed a big obvious win of a trade, not one that might look good in July 2025. I still wouldn't have made the trade personally but I don't think it's horrendous - just mediocre.

[JFD]

This thread is cancer

[BTS]

You're completely right! I'm not saying you shouldn't trade value or pay up for good players. But those players have to be ACTUAL superstars. To me personally, a defensive specialist with around a league average bat is NOT a guy you want to push all your chips in on. To you, he was! That's completely fair. We'll see in the next 3 years who was right, but I disagree with the move.

 

Personally, I would love to trade Tiedmann this winter for an actual superstar. Just not for Varsho.

 

I think the two of us also see the the acquisition cost differently. I don't think Gurriel carried any meaningful value. So I see the trade as being Moreno for Varsho. And I think that cost reflects the warts you've correctly pointed out in Varsho's profile: he gets a lot of his value from defense, and doesn't hit the ball hard often enough. A 26-year old old with 4 years of control who had put of 7 war over 900 PA the previous two years and who had arrived there with less defense and more bat probably doesn't get traded for Moreno and whatever marginal value you want to attribute to Gurriel. All that to say: I don't think the Jays paid sticker price for a guy you'd expect to continue putting up 4-5 win seasons for the remaining 4 years of team control. Bichette is a 4-5 win player who gets there with his bat, and the forum would have had an aneurism if he were traded last offseason for the same value Varsho returned.