Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[Dick_Pole]

You all need to stop conflating these issues.

 

Is Kirk the better catcher than Moreno going forward? Maybe, maybe not.

 

Are the breaking down of the nerd stats showing that BR slightly overvalues Moreno? Maybe, maybe not.

 

Does Atkins still have massive egg on his face making this deal, based on the performance of Moreno from April to October 2023? Yes, yes he does.

 

 

Varsho is the only one who can show that this trade was worth it. Not Kirk.

[Jays24]

These guys enable each other to some extent. "Yes, I'm fat, but so are those guys"

 

Blue Jays are the beer league team of MLB

 

Like what good is the "high performance" department that Shapiro was raving about before he moved onto the renovations when your guys cant do the bare minimum lol.

[BigCecil]

You all need to stop conflating these issues.

 

Is Kirk the better catcher than Moreno going forward? Maybe, maybe not.

 

Are the breaking down of the nerd stats showing that BR slightly overvalues Moreno? Maybe, maybe not.

 

Does Atkins still have massive egg on his face making this deal, based on the performance of Moreno from April to October 2023? Yes, yes he does.

 

 

Varsho is the only one who can show that this trade was worth it. Not Kirk.

 

100% its on Varsho to show it was worth it.

 

There is no real Kirk/Moreno debate anyway. How many honestly wouldn't take Moreno and his +2 control/body type/upside over Kirk any day?

[Jimcanuck]

100% its on Varsho to show it was worth it.

 

There is no real Kirk/Moreno debate anyway. How many honestly wouldn't take Moreno and his +2 control/body type/upside over Kirk any day?

 

At the time of the trade, Kirk was rated higher by some posters and in industry rankings

[Olerud363]

100% its on Varsho to show it was worth it.

 

There is no real Kirk/Moreno debate anyway. How many honestly wouldn't take Moreno and his +2 control/body type/upside over Kirk any day?

 

Control is in favor of Moreno, body type in favor of Moreno, upside in favor of Kirk. If Vlad Guerrero Jr has an '80' hit tool, Kirk is 70. This was partially under-appreciated because he missed his age 21 minor league season in which he would likely of put up dynamite numbers.

 

Moreno is probably a 60 hit tool (slightly lesser k/bb ratio as compared to Kirk).

 

What is crazy is how much Kirk and Vlad are under-performing their elite hit tools.

[Brownie19]

At the time of the trade, Kirk was rated higher by some posters and in industry rankings

 

Not that it's gospel, but at the time of the trade, Kirk was ranked the 27th most valuable player in MLB by Fangraphs. As of July 21, 2023, he was still ranked 39th. Moreno wasn't Top 50 in the most current rankings. Obviously teams will have their own valuation systems, but you are correct that at the time of the trade, Kirk was rated higher than Moreno. In fact, coming off a 3.9 WAR, 129 wRC+ season - I think everyone should have considered Kirk to be the better player (currently). The real question was whether he would stay 'above' Moreno over the long term. This year, they were similar in value and obviously, based on the playoffs, everyone expects Moreno will just bud into a superstar next year. That may happen - but then again, we all though Kirk was on the same path heading into the 2023 season - so you never know.

 

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Kirk posts a 4 WAR year, while Moreno struggles to a 2 WAR season. I also wouldn't be surprised if Kirk was at 2 WAR and Moreno was at 4 WAR. Young catchers are often quite unpredictable. Even Adley declined (a bit) this year after an incredible rookie season.

[L54]

Those are just computer numbers. They don’t factor anything else like being obese

 

39th most valuable player in baseball on July 21 is so cringe you wonder if the Fangraphs guys even watch the games

[Dick_Pole]

Regarding obesity. Moreno isn't exactly winning Mr. Universe titles and his face just screams "I have DNA that makes me gain weight easily". In a scenario where he stays with the Jays, there's no telling if the culture here doesn't also lead to him having weight issues.

[max silver]

You all need to stop conflating these issues.

 

Is Kirk the better catcher than Moreno going forward? Maybe, maybe not.

 

Are the breaking down of the nerd stats showing that BR slightly overvalues Moreno? Maybe, maybe not.

 

Does Atkins still have massive egg on his face making this deal, based on the performance of Moreno from April to October 2023? Yes, yes he does.

 

 

Varsho is the only one who can show that this trade was worth it. Not Kirk.

 

Moreno's performance was actually pretty poor for the better part of the season and was essentially saved by a 6 week hot stretch with the bat to end the season. As late as August 16th Moreno was having a really mediocre season overall as he sported an 83 WRC+ and 0.5 FWAR at that point of the season. He ended the season on a bit of a heater as he produced a 144 WRC+ and 1.2 FWAR over the final 6 weeks of the season. I think it's really too early to tell what the "real" version of Moreno will be at the plate moving forward. You could say the final 6 weeks is sustainable moving forward, but that's far from a given as MLB history is littered with young players (and veterans for that matter) who have hot streaks at the plate that they aren't able to reproduce in the future.

[connorp]

Moreno's performance was actually pretty poor for the better part of the season and was essentially saved by a 6 week hot stretch with the bat to end the season. As late as August 16th Moreno was having a really mediocre season overall as he sported an 83 WRC+ and 0.5 FWAR at that point of the season. He ended the season on a bit of a heater as he produced a 144 WRC+ and 1.2 FWAR over the final 6 weeks of the season. I think it's really too early to tell what the "real" version of Moreno will be at the plate moving forward. You could say the final 6 weeks is sustainable moving forward, but that's far from a given as MLB history is littered with young players (and veterans for that matter) who have hot streaks at the plate that they aren't able to reproduce in the future.

 

You can frame any players sample sizes a certain way. Its funny how you paint a rosy picture with samples sizes when you want, and then use the same info to paint a less flattering perspective when you want

[max silver]

You can frame any players sample sizes a certain way. Its funny how you paint a rosy picture with samples sizes when you want, and then use the same info to paint a less flattering perspective when you want

 

There is simply no way to frame most of Moreno's rookie season as anything but underwhelming unless you are a member of the cult of batting average for evaluating offensive performane. The question remains what Moreno is moving forward. There is a massive dose of recency bias being applied to Moreno to portray him as a middle of the order monster bat based on a small sample of at bats while choosing to completely ignore the several year stretch where he supplied essentially no power at the plate.

[connorp]

There is simply no way to frame most of Moreno's rookie season as anything but underwhelming unless you are a member of the cult of batting average for evaluating offensive performane. The question remains what Moreno is moving forward. There is a massive dose of recency bias being applied to Moreno to portray him as a middle of the order monster bat based on a small sample of at bats while choosing to completely ignore the several year stretch where he supplied essentially no power at the plate.

 

My bad. I think I got my posters mixed up.

 

I thought this was a guy that disregarded 1500 PA sample sizes over 4 years, in favor of 70 AB sample sizes when evaluating a player.

 

My mistake. I will be more careful

[max silver]

My bad. I think I got my posters mixed up.

 

I thought this was a guy that disregarded 1500 PA sample sizes over 4 years, in favor of 70 AB sample sizes when evaluating a player.

 

My mistake. I will be more careful

 

Why don't you go ahead and find a post where I disregarded a 1500 plate appearance/4 year sample in favor of 70 at bats. I'm waiting.

[Brownie19]

Those are just computer numbers. They don’t factor anything else like being obese

 

39th most valuable player in baseball on July 21 is so cringe you wonder if the Fangraphs guys even watch the games

 

I don't disagree, but I think some forget just how awesome Kirk was in 2022 and how he was a legit star player heading into this season. Heading into this season, the probability that Moreno had 1 season in career as good as Kirk 2022 was likely <50% (it still might be). Now of course we're seeing all kinds of recency bias with Moreno because he got red hot for 6 weeks to finish the season and has been very good in the playoffs (just a 124 wRC+, I would have thought it was higher). He'll head into the 2024 season in a similar position that Kirk did this past year (Kirk hit well in our 2 playoff games last year too and may have generated even more buzz if we could have won a few rounds). We'll see if Moreno continues to excel, or if the league adjusts to him and he slumps a bit.

 

I also can't believe how s***** Moreno's baserunning is. He's fast, but it's like he learned baserunning from Vlad or something as he must make a s*** ton of mistakes.

[max silver]

I don't disagree, but I think some forget just how awesome Kirk was in 2022 and how he was a legit star player heading into this season. Heading into this season, the probability that Moreno had 1 season in career as good as Kirk 2022 was likely <50% (it still might be). Now of course we're seeing all kinds of recency bias with Moreno because he got red hot for 6 weeks to finish the season and has been very good in the playoffs (just a 124 wRC+, I would have thought it was higher). He'll head into the 2024 season in a similar position that Kirk did this past year (Kirk hit well in our 2 playoff games last year too and may have generated even more buzz if we could have won a few rounds). We'll see if Moreno continues to excel, or if the league adjusts to him and he slumps a bit.

 

I also can't believe how s***** Moreno's baserunning is. He's fast, but it's like he learned baserunning from Vlad or something as he must make a s*** ton of mistakes.

 

There is a bit of a misconception that Moreno is a fast runner, but in reality it seems he is just fast for a catcher. MLB average speed is listed at 27 ft/second, where Moreno was rated at 27.2 ft/second in 2023. Danny Jansen for comparisons sake is 27.1 ft/second.

[Laika]

There is a bit of a misconception that Moreno is a fast runner, but in reality it seems he is just fast for a catcher. MLB average speed is listed at 27 ft/second, where Moreno was rated at 27.2 ft/second in 2023. Danny Jansen for comparisons sake is 27.1 ft/second.

 

His general athleticism was overrated as a prospect I guess. Some people thought his ceiling would be peak JT Realmuto, i.e. a 20 SB, +6 BsR catcher.

 

Hard to imagine him ever being a positive baserunner after the -7 this year. He may be able to get close to average with practice.

[connorp]

His general athleticism was overrated as a prospect I guess. Some people thought his ceiling would be peak JT Realmuto, i.e. a 20 SB, +6 BsR catcher.

 

Hard to imagine him ever being a positive baserunner after the -7 this year. He may be able to get close to average with practice.

 

Sometimes they can underestimate. Like in the case of Zack Gelof, it does seem Bsr checks out, as he has 91st percentile sprint speed. Pleasant surprise as Fangrpahs had only pegged him at 50 scale and didn’t steal a ton early on in minors

[Laika]

Gelof is truly a superstar, I agree.

[Olerud363]

Does Atkins still have massive egg on his face making this deal, based on the performance of Moreno from April to October 2023? Yes, yes he does.

 

 

Varsho is the only one who can show that this trade was worth it. Not Kirk.

 

The crazy thing is Varsho and Moreno were even in fWAR + bWAR (Varsho 3.9 2.1 = 6.0, Moreno 4.3 1.7 = 6.0)

 

According to the WARs they were the same.

 

But the trade is the worst thing ever that happened and Atkins is needing to be severely given a D performance review.

 

A lot of prejudices in this conversation, batting average included. Because Moreno hit .290 and Varsho .220 we assume Moreno is way better hitter, but Varsho has a much better secondary average.

 

Because Moreno is not obese and is the most athletic guy many have ever seen we assume he is a great, great baserunner but he is terrible.

[connorp]

Gelof is truly a superstar, I agree.

 

I wouldn’t label him that, but I think Top 5 Dynasty 2b is in play. Shallow field I guess, but still

[5ToolPhenom]

Is this the worst trade in Blue Jays history? I don't think any trade has backfired so spectacularly and so quickly for the Jays before.

[hanton]

Is this the worst trade in Blue Jays history? I don't think any trade has backfired so spectacularly and so quickly for the Jays before.

 

What? who?.....lol

[glory]

Is this the worst trade in Blue Jays history? I don't think any trade has backfired so spectacularly and so quickly for the Jays before.

 

This trade is definitely worse than prime John Olerud and $6 million cash for Robert Person.

[june.june]

I am so happy for Lourdes Gurriel and Gabby Moreno. The ones who criticized hard this idiotic trade and could be up there as one of the worse in Blue Jays History, true vindication to all of us.

 

I fully remembered how it was blasphemy in the eyes of the “so called self-proclaimed/ know it all” experts of this forum when regret of the Gurriel or Moreno loss were even mentioned and Varsho’s name as trash. We were trolled hard and threatened to be banned or at a minimum place on their ignore or IR list. They know who they are.

 

To Ross Atkins - f*** you idiot !

[Stangstag]

This thread about to get real toxic

[Spanky99]

This thread about to get real toxic

 

[5ToolPhenom]

This thread about to get real toxic

 

Nah man, from what I can see, most people are entirely pleased with Mr. 674OPS and his .000 post season AVG lmao. Who needs Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr when we have that!

[5ToolPhenom]

Pretty good new article from the Toronto Star

 

"Blue Jays are clear early losers in the Gabriel Moreno-Lourdes Gurriel Jr. trade. Nobody of sound mind would do it again"

 

https://www.thestar.com/sports/blue-jays/blue-jays-are-clear-early-losers-in-the-gabriel-moreno-lourdes-gurriel-jr-trade-nobody/article_ba0632a9-1a51-5b9b-90e9-0a9853929cc0.html

 

Not often I find myself agreeing with this publication, but they hit the nail on the head with this one.

 

"Catcher Gabriel Moreno and left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Two players who used to be a source of inspiration around these parts now represent a black eye of sorts for an organization that traded them away for light-hitting outfielder Daulton Varsho.". That truly does sum it up with a nice little bow.

[jaysblue]

This thread about to get real toxic

 

You knew it was bound to happen haha

[Krylian]

This thread about to get real toxic

 

As it should