Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[L54]

Pretty sure he read it wrong and didn’t understand you meant someone other then Bo and Vlad would need to be a 4 WAR guy

 

That would make more sense. I didn’t think what I said was outlandish

[L54]

I’m not really betting on it either, just saying it’s not crazy. Vlad and Bo being 4fWAR is a reasonable expectation. Davis Schneider? Springer? Jansen or Kirk? All of the above have shown they have the talents, it’s just a matter of health, age and experience there. I wouldn’t bet on any of those 4 individually but if I had to pick from a few guys who could get there, it would be between those 4.

 

They sure could it’s possible. I guess I’m in the camp where I think we need another very good piece to be legit contenders and not the Diamondbacks this year

[Brownie19]

That would make more sense. I didn’t think what I said was outlandish

 

It's not, but it's also not crazy to think that Bo and Vlad both put up 4+ WAR seasons next year and that someone out of the grouping of Springer, Kirk, Varsho, Jansen, Schneider, etc. does too. Springer, Kirk and Varsho were all 4 WAR players in 2022. Unfortunately, I think there's a good chance we go into 2024 simply hoping that happens. If it does, we're probably a 90+ win team. If it doesn't, maybe we're an 80-85 win team.

[L54]

It's not, but it's also not crazy to think that Bo and Vlad both put up 4+ WAR seasons next year and that someone out of the grouping of Springer, Kirk, Varsho, Jansen, Schneider, etc. does too. Springer, Kirk and Varsho were all 4 WAR players in 2022. Unfortunately, I think there's a good chance we go into 2024 simply hoping that happens. If it does, we're probably a 90+ win team. If it doesn't, maybe we're an 80-85 win team.

 

That’s where we differ. I think it’s highly unlikely Bo, Vlad and one of those guys each have 4 WAR seasons

 

And if the goal is to simply be the Miami Marlins ie just make it in then blow it up

[Terminator]

I'm going to get viciously attacked for saying this, but the team will be one of like 8 teams good enough to win the WS next year if Vlad plays to his potential. We're talking about a guy we expected to be a Yordan Alvarez level producer who played like a right-handed Justin Bour.

 

I'll also get mercilessly lambasted for saying that, while not likely, it's still a feasible path to 95+ wins. The rest of the roster is pretty solid.

 

I'll probably be lined up in front of a firing squad for saying this, but I'll take it even further. If we were some broke ass team like the Cleveland Indians and couldn't make any significant additions this offseason, I still think we'd have a Wild Card team on our hands.

 

I know I'm going to get the electric chair for this, but if we just used a Barger/Espinal platoon at 3B, Horwitz/righty bat at DH, Schneider/Biggio at 2B and then dumpster dive for LF I think that'd be good enough as I expect numerous underachievers to rebound.

 

Luckily we are pretty big spenders so I expect us to be even better than that.

[Omar]

I'll probably be lined up in front of a firing squad for saying this, but I'll take it even further. If we were some broke ass team like the Cleveland Indians and couldn't make any significant additions this offseason, I still think we'd have a Wild Card team on our hands.

 

I know I'm going to get the electric chair for this, but if we just used a Barger/Espinal platoon at 3B, Horwitz/righty bat at DH, Schneider/Biggio at 2B and then dumpster dive for LF I think that'd be good enough as I expect numerous underachievers to rebound.

 

Luckily we are pretty big spenders so I expect us to be even better than that.

 

Attacks incoming!

[Terminator]

They sure could it’s possible. I guess I’m in the camp where I think we need another very good piece to be legit contenders and not the Diamondbacks this year

 

That's the thing though, you don't need to be "legit contenders" anymore. The D-Bags are on the verge of making the NLCS.

[leaffie]

Not attacking, but just wondered why anyone would think vladdy will rebound.

 

Every year he gets progressively worse, with no signs that he is listening. Someone here said there were reports that the Jays had brought in numerous advisers to help, to no avail.

[Laika]

Not attacking, but just wondered why anyone would think vladdy will rebound.

 

Every year he gets progressively worse, with no signs that he is listening. Someone here said there were reports that the Jays had brought in numerous advisers to help, to no avail.

 

his wxOBA was .374 this year

vs his wOBA of .340

 

every other year of his career these two figures have been bang on

 

throwing the narratives aside, there is a chance he was just stupid unlucky this year.

[Brownie19]

That’s where we differ. I think it’s highly unlikely Bo, Vlad and one of those guys each have 4 WAR seasons

 

And if the goal is to simply be the Miami Marlins ie just make it in then blow it up

 

Depends what probability you think classifies as 'crazy'. I think there's maybe a 25% chance that we have three players who can give us 4+ WAR years in 2024 (without making a major trade of FA signing). I think that's fair, given we still have 4 guys on the current roster who did it in 2022 (if I round Kirk's up from 3.9 ), plus Vlad as the 5th wild card, plus a guy like Davis Schneider or a Danny Jansen who could surprise.

 

I just don't see us adding another star player. We had internal prospect depth last year and took our shot at adding another 'star' player who was under control for several years. We got Varsho, who kind of stinks, but will probably be a solid CF moving forward. I can't see them trading Ricky or another top prospect to try and bring in another 4-5 WAR 'star' player again this year. I don't think we have the parts to do it unless they only have 1 (maybe 2) years of control.

 

I also think anytime you make the playoffs, it's a good, successful season. I'm not blowing up the roster simply because we have the loses odds heading into the playoffs.

[Brownie19]

Not attacking, but just wondered why anyone would think vladdy will rebound.

 

Every year he gets progressively worse, with no signs that he is listening. Someone here said there were reports that the Jays had brought in numerous advisers to help, to no avail.

 

You mean to say he's gotten progressively worse SINCE 2021 right? There is obviously some probability that he rebounds. The # of people with his type of statcast #'s who aren't star players is really low. There are also very few players in the history of the game who produced like Vlad in the minors and posted MLB numbers like he did in 2021. Also, in today's day and age, it's easier than it's ever been to correct mechanical flaws and 'fix' players.

 

I don't know what probability is that he rebounds and hits closer to his 2021 season (say .290 / .390 / .520 with a 150 wRC+), but it's probably >25%

 

That said - I hate Vlad and have little faith, but if you look at it subjectively, you can see why people would think he can rebound.

[leaffie]

Yes, that is what I meant 2021. But to me it staggers the imagination that he has gone from An mvp candidate with 48 HRs to what we saw this year. Perhaps there were injuries and then he over compensated, but most times, he looked lost.

 

I hope he does come back, but management should not be using his possible resurgence, to fix the offensive problems with this team.

[BigCecil]

That's the thing though, you don't need to be "legit contenders" anymore. The D-Bags are on the verge of making the NLCS.

 

Its freakish. All coming together at the right time for AZ so far. The Brewers can't hit and Woodruff hurt. The LAD rotation decimated by IL and Urias suspension. Good timing. They still need 1 more vs LAD and thats a solid line up.

 

I still think AZ will pile up this year based on longer series and talent level.

[connorp]

I’ll note pre-games I said once Woodruff was hurt, the Brewers were the worst team and I hoped for their swift exit. Can’t hit for anything and the only way they were a danger was those two Aces.

 

AZ definitely benefitting from Kershaw s***ing the bed and LAD depleted SP. other than that, they’re just being carried by the same bats and pitching that got them there. Gallen 2 wins. Ginkel 3 holds. Sewald 3 saves. The only sort of revelation through 4 games is Pham.

[connorp]

The ongoing theme here is Jays roster was sub-optimal and it’s loser talk attributing it to bad luck. Sub optimal roster combined with horrendous managing.

[jaysblue]

I do expect some players to rebound next season, guys like Varsho, Kirk and even Vladdy can't be as bad as they were. I hope Springer does as well, but his age does concern me. He very much could end up like a Vernon Wells or Alfonso Soriano, where he becomes a dead asset.

 

I don't think the status quo is good enough. There was something fundamentally wrong with this team in 2023. Offensively, the struggles lasted over 162 games + 2 WC games. This wasn't just a team that ran into bad luck at the end of the season against Minnesota. Improvements and upgrades need to be made to give this team a better chance at going on a deep Postseason run. Another elite star would be nice if it could happen via trade, even if it's for a player with only 1 or 2 years of control.

 

Obviously if Vladdy bounces back and produces like he did in 2021, that would be fantastic. Though you can't go into the 2024 season banking on him returning to his 2021 form. That's why adding another elite player if possible would be nice. And if Vlad does return to his 2021 form, even better!!

[BTS]

The ongoing theme here is Jays roster was sub-optimal and it’s loser talk attributing it to bad luck. Sub optimal roster combined with horrendous managing.

 

It's not bad luck that Toronto lost. It's the absence of good luck.

 

Every roster except maybe Atlanta is sub-optimal/flawed.

 

The Diamondbacks pitching staff is paper thin with an ace, an SP 2/3, two good relievers, and a bunch of trash

The Dodgers' only good/healthy starter is SP is Bobby Miller

The Twins offense is Royce Lewis and a bunch of league average guys

The Phillies can't defend, and their bullpen is basically all guys who were gas cans 4 months ago

The only starter the Astros have who looked anything like an SP1 or 2 this year is Framber Valdez

The Orioles pitching staff is paper thin without Bautista

 

Unless Atlanta wins, one of these teams is going to catch a break, get some lightning in a bottle performances, and overcome glaring weakness to win a WS. It happens most years, because the champion is rarely a 105-win powerhouse with no flaws.

[BTS]

Like, Toronto had a 107 wRC+ this year. Phillies 105. Arizona 97. In September Toronto was at 107, the Phillies 101. Arizona 85.

 

It's so incredibly silly to pretend like Philly and Arizona assembled some super-secret offense that only works well in the playoffs, and that their offenses were obviously going to outperform Toronto's in October.

 

It's equally silly to pretend like Gallen/Kelly and the Arizona bullpen was obviously better than Gausman/Berrios and the Toronto bullpen.

[connorp]

Like, Toronto had a 107 wRC+ this year. Phillies 105. Arizona 97. In September Toronto was at 107, the Phillies 101. Arizona 85.

 

It's so incredibly silly to pretend like Philly and Arizona assembled some super-secret offense that only works well in the playoffs, and that their offenses were obviously going to outperform Toronto's in October.

 

It's equally silly to pretend like Gallen/Kelly and the Arizona bullpen was obviously better than Gausman/Berrios and the Toronto bullpen.

 

It’s not silly, dude. It’s plain to see if you just go look at box scores. Philly and AZ have been carried by their stars. It’s not the other guys finding magic

[connorp]

I will say it’s not like pre-season you could think Springer and Vlad would be so bad. I certainly didn’t.

But come playoffs it was a s*** team that wasn’t going to make it

[BTS]

It’s not silly, dude. It’s plain to see if you just go look at box scores. Philly and AZ have been carried by their stars. It’s not the other guys finding magic

 

I have no idea what it is about this you find instructive, predictable, or otherwise noteworthy. Toronto's offense outperformed Arizona's by 10% in 2023, and by 22% in September, but connorp from the internet knew that Arizona's offense would start mashing in October and Toronto's would do nothing? You should be making huge money consulting for an MLB team.

[connorp]

I have no idea what it is about this you find instructive, predictable, or otherwise noteworthy. Toronto's offense outperformed Arizona's by 10% in 2023, and by 22% in August, but connorp from the internet knew that Arizona's offense would start mashing in October and Toronto's would do nothing? You should be making huge money consulting for an MLB team.

 

Stars and hrs win games. It would be hard to even classify Bo as a star this year with a .800 OPS and lack on sb. He held his own in the post-season though I guess

[Marew]

I kind of assumed connor p does work in the MLB. Some type of analytics job.

[Stangstag]

Stars and hrs win games. It would be hard to even classify Bo as a star this year with a .800 OPS and lack on sb. He held his own in the post-season though I guess

 

Could’ve had the big hit in game 2 if Vlad hadn’t robbed him of the opportunity.

[BTS]

Stars and hrs win games. It would be hard to even classify Bo as a star this year with a .800 OPS and lack on sb. He held his own in the post-season though I guess

 

Arizona has HR's this postseason from (in addition to Carroll and Marte):

 

Tommy Pham (110 wRC+)

Gabriel Moreno x2 (103 wRC+)

Alek Thomas x2 (71 wRC+)

Lourdes Gurriel (106 wRC+)

 

These are not stars. This was not predictable. Their offense is not better than Toronto's.

[connorp]

Arizona has HR's this postseason from (in addition to Carroll and Marte):

 

Tommy Pham (110 wRC+)

Gabriel Moreno x2 (103 wRC+)

Alek Thomas x2 (71 wRC+)

Lourdes Gurriel (106 wRC+)

 

These are not stars. This was not predictable. Their offense is not better than Toronto's.

 

Sure if you want to latch on the HR part, but LG and Thomas aren’t having good post-seaons overall

[BTS]

Sure if you want to latch on the HR part, but LG and Thomas aren’t having good post-seaons overall

 

I'm curious about what you make of the Dodgers stars like Freeman and Betts doing nothing. Does your model separate fake stars like them from real stars like Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham?

[connorp]

I'm curious about what you make of the Dodgers stars like Freeman and Betts doing nothing. Does your model separate fake stars like them from real stars like Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham?

 

If you have a roulette wheel with 40 spots, 30 are black and 10 are red.. your core beliefs revolve around you’re not any smarter betting black because it comes up red sometimes… and “haha you bet black and it’s red, duumbass”

 

It’s mlb conventional window that SP gives you the edge up in playoffs and so do stars. That’s why they get paid something different than per WAR. GMs are also smart and wouldn’t be paying closers $20m/year unless they know they’re paying for the playoffs to come around and the player to be more meaningful

[BTS]

If you have a roulette wheel with 40 spots, 30 are black and 10 are red.. your core beliefs revolve around you’re not any smarter betting black because it comes up red sometimes… and “haha you bet black and it’s red, duumbass”

 

It’s mlb conventional window that SP gives you the edge up in playoffs and so do stars. That’s why they get paid something different than per WAR. GMs are also smart and wouldn’t be paying closers $20m/year unless they know they’re paying for the playoffs to come around and the player to be more meaningful

 

I might just be dense, but I'm still not sure if your model was able to foresee that Gabriel Moreno and Tommy Pham were more real stars than Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. I think yes, because you correctly identified that the Diamondbacks would beat the Dodgers. I just wish you had said something before their series started so I could have made money with you betting the underdog.

[Laika]

wait wait wait

 

star players are good?

 

holy f***, call tom tango

 

has this been researched?