Shape of the Blue Jays: Dallas, Arrighetti, Sewald

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition.

All stats entering August 27, 2026, unless otherwise stated.

Quick Hits: Bullpen Reinforcements?

• Daniel Guerra (RHP) is a name with some helium down on the farm. The 22-year-old Venezuelan was signed as an international free agent four summers ago. I named him one of the Jays' minor league starting pitchers of the month back in April after the promising start he had in Vancouver's rotation.
• Earlier this summer, Guerra was shifted to the bullpen, a move that has accelerated his path to the big leagues. Earlier this week, he was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo, facing four batters and giving up a solo homer in his debut. His jump from High A to Double A, and then a much quicker leap to Buffalo, has some wondering whether he could be in Toronto next month.
• Guerra is simply an imposing presence on the mound. He's 6-foot-6, 230 lbs with a high overhand release and nearly seven feet of extension in his delivery. The stuff is already MLB quality: a 98-mph cut-ride fastball, a 90-mph cutter with considerable lift and glove-side action, a no-spin 89-mph sinker with over 13" of run (impressive considering his arm angle), and a high-80s changeup to bridge the movement profiles between the four-seamer and two-seamer.
• That's undeniably nasty, but he was in the zone less than 30% of the time in his Bisons debut. If he can show stronger command, he could be a shot in the arm for a solid but exhausted Blue Jays bullpen, especially if they can stay in the Wild Card race into September.

Chad Dallas

John Schneider knew he would need quality innings in some form as the Blue Jays re-adjusted to life without Shane Bieber on Wednesday. Chad Dallas delivered, completely neutralizing the Royals en route to a shutout win for Toronto (2.2 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 4 K, 0 BB). 

Dallas's shapes are fun to analyze because he's an outlier in terms of his ability to get tremendous sidespin from a high release point. Since his primary pitch is a cutter and other teams know that everything moves glove-side, he hasn't been a high-whiff guy at this level, but he's done an excellent job getting hitters to chase and miss barrels. At 93 mph, his cutter velocity stands out. Opponents are hitting just .111 against it so far. The curveball, his secondary of choice against lefties, is about as 12-6 as it gets. The sweeper has plus velocity and plus horizontal break with downward vertical action, making it something of a unicorn offering, especially from his slot.

On Wednesday, Dallas leaned on his cutter more against lefties, and the sweeper was his primary offering against righties as the curve took more of a tertiary role. The cutter was responsible for three of his four strikeouts, but Kansas City was completely fooled by his sweeper (five whiffs on six swings, 33% zone swing, 71% chase). I'm declaring him the King of Supination until further notice.

Spencer Arrighetti

We got our first glimpse of Spencer Arrighetti as a Blue Jay last Friday at Yankee Stadium (3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 4 K, 2 BB). He's evolved into a kitchen-sink type with a low 3/4 release, but the book on him when he came over from Houston was essentially plus curveball, deceptive vertical action on the four-seamer, and iffy command. The Blue Jays clearly had a planned adjustment in mind, as he threw his sinker 23% of the time in New York, up from 11% on the year.

Its specs are half-decent: low 90s velocity, 17" of tail (which makes sense given his 19° arm angle), and separation in movement from both the four-seamer and changeup. The location models hosted on FanGraphs don't like it, but when he first started toying with it in 2025, it had a 65% zone rate, highest in his arsenal. This year, its zone rate is tied for second-highest in his arsenal behind his cutter, which he has deliberately backed off of in recent years.

Spencer Arrighetti Sinker, 8/21 vs NYY

His best pitch stuff-wise is the curveball, which he struggles to locate. His four-seamer can play as a primary pitch in a wide arsenal, but it only started getting results once he stopped throwing it 40% of the time. I believe the Jays' thinking here is that throwing the sinker more often is a way for him to be in the zone more while allowing the four-seamer and curve to play up. Its results from this outing suggest the Yankees weren't expecting to see it as much as they did (38% chase, three whiffs on seven swings).

Paul Sewald

Just three seasons ago, Paul Sewald was closing games for the pennant-winning Diamondbacks. They cut him loose earlier this month. He's been the same type of pitcher for a few years now: low arm angle, low-VAA four-seamer, and a sweeper. Both his strikeout and walk rates are actually better than they were last year, but the home run ball singlehandedly ended his time with Arizona (2.47 HR/9, first-percentile barrel rate). The four-seamer (.546 SLG, .558 xSLG) was mostly at fault.

Naturally, we saw more of the sweeper and less of the four-seamer in his first few outings as a Blue Jay. However, he went back to the fastball more often on Tuesday and Wednesday against the Royals. Sewald's arm angle has slowly dropped over the past few seasons, and the vertical break on his fastball has slowly fallen with it. The ballooning home run rate suggests it doesn't play middle-up in the zone like it used to, which is where he has lived with it for most of the season. On Tuesday especially, he was broadening his locations with it. He hasn't given up a homer yet in five appearances with Toronto.

Paul Sewald Fastball Locations, 8/25 vs KC – hey, wait, that actually looks like a photo of Mason Fluharty...

He's a flyball pitcher who was running a career-worst 17.4% HR/FB rate with the D-backs, so some of that is positive regression. However, I actually like the idea of him throwing more four-seamers out of the zone moving forward. After all, damage was the reason he got cut, and it's a lot harder to hit homers on pitches above the top rail than at the belt!