Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[connorp]

Curious as to why you believe 29 year old Lourdes, whose ISO has declined 4 straight years, is a "better bet" to find his power than a 26 year old Varsho taking a step forward?

 

He’s proven at the level he’s a 20hr hitter. Usually you give a mulligan to outlier stats. 29 isn’t an age where power should just disappear. I probably wouldn’t bet anything on it but again, that’s been his career norm

 

I liked LG. Wouldn’t argue on his value overall but sad to get him go from fan perspective

[flafson]

He’s proven at the level he’s a 20hr hitter. Usually you give a mulligan to outlier stats. 29 isn’t an age where power should just disappear. I probably wouldn’t bet anything on it but again, that’s been his career norm

 

I liked LG. Wouldn’t argue on his value overall but sad to get him go from fan perspective

 

I have a feeling Arizona will flip him to the Yankees and we will get to see him a lot more.

[John_Havok]

Lgjr career PAs per HR is 27.41 in just over 1864 PAs.

 

Varsho career PAs per HR is 24.93 in 1022 PAs.

 

 

Both are large enough samples to be pretty stable. Maybe Gurriel recovers from his injury and gets his power back, maybe not. Even if does hit 20 HR next season…what’s he doing when he’s not hitting those 20 HRs? The other 550 PAs, defense and baserunning matter too. Those other aspects matter less the more HRs he hits, but if you’re thinking 20…they matter a shitload more.

 

This is the thing that people need to keep in mind. HRs are cool, they generally equate to scoring runs. But when you’re only hitting 20 per year, in a full season, the other aspects of your game take up a much bigger chunk of your value.

[connorp]

What’s they have to do with anything? Varsho becoming better doesn’t involve HRs. Becoming better means different things for different people

[connorp]

I have a feeling Arizona will flip him to the Yankees and we will get to see him a lot more.

 

As I said, I won’t die on the LG hill. Enjoyed him as a Jay but wouldn’t argue he’s a big loss

 

That’s a good take though. Could see him rake for NYY just bc

[Stangstag]

I have a feeling Arizona will flip him to the Yankees and we will get to see him a lot more.

 

Why would they do that… AZ desperately needed a RHH outfielder

[flafson]

Why would they do that… AZ desperately needed a RHH outfielder

 

He's an expendable rental on a young building team.

[justafan]

I find this thread interesting. It's always about having these guys play the whole year and what they did last year. Jansen is not as good as his last years number show. 2nd base (assuming they are not using Espy) is below average hitting by far. Maybe Ryu comes back in August or before. Maybe Kikuchi can do something every now and then. I am worried about the offence. Bo swings at everything and it showed. VGJ had an off year and I hope it was such. Romano had a terrible stretch and that worries me.

 

There are 3 seasons in Baseball. Getting to the All-Star game (kind of an extended pre-season and warmup, getting to the trade deadline, then having real baseball.

 

To me, the Jays did 2 things. Changed the chemistry on the bench and added some much needed speed.

 

OK, now you can kill me!

[L54]

I find this thread interesting. It's always about having these guys play the whole year and what they did last year. Jansen is not as good as his last years number show. 2nd base (assuming they are not using Espy) is below average hitting by far. Maybe Ryu comes back in August or before. Maybe Kikuchi can do something every now and then. I am worried about the offence. Bo swings at everything and it showed. VGJ had an off year and I hope it was such. Romano had a terrible stretch and that worries me.

 

There are 3 seasons in Baseball. Getting to the All-Star game (kind of an extended pre-season and warmup, getting to the trade deadline, then having real baseball.

 

To me, the Jays did 2 things. Changed the chemistry on the bench and added some much needed speed.

 

OK, now you can kill me!

 

Nah you’re allowed to have that opinion

 

For me I think the worry about the offence is overblown. Yes they lost Teo but Varsho helps lessen the sting. He brings a little balance to the lineup and a power/speed combo. It could conceivably be a top 5 lineup with drastically improved defence and base running. A couple chances in guys like Horowitz or Barger who both project to be above average turning into guys who can help.

 

If they need to add at the deadline it’s probably a RH outfielder which there is almost never a shortage of. I would feel confident starting the year with the position player group as is.

[Deadpool]

I find this thread interesting. It's always about having these guys play the whole year and what they did last year. Jansen is not as good as his last years number show. 2nd base (assuming they are not using Espy) is below average hitting by far. Maybe Ryu comes back in August or before. Maybe Kikuchi can do something every now and then. I am worried about the offence. Bo swings at everything and it showed. VGJ had an off year and I hope it was such. Romano had a terrible stretch and that worries me.

 

There are 3 seasons in Baseball. Getting to the All-Star game (kind of an extended pre-season and warmup, getting to the trade deadline, then having real baseball.

 

To me, the Jays did 2 things. Changed the chemistry on the bench and added some much needed speed.

 

OK, now you can kill me!

 

Jansen's underlying numbers don't show any real batted ball luck, in fact his numbers earlier in his career consistently showed terrible batted ball luck compared to the results. I'd rarely ever bank on a player repeating a 140 wRC+, but it's definitely possible that Jansen could reach that. He also projects as a 120 wRC+ hitter, which is really good.

 

w/r/t second base, projections show Cavan at 106 and Whit at 98, one is above average, the other is a tick below average, neither is "below average hitting by far".

 

Bo's career wRC+ is 127 and 120 is the lowest number he's put up in any season, he swings wildly, but he gets amazing results. In a down year, Vladdy still posted a 134 wRC+, and projections have him at 166 (whether or not he meets that largely depends on his launch angle, IMO, so hopefully he's improved that a bit during the off season).

 

I have absolutely no concerns about this team scoring runs, and I think the pitching, defence, and base running have all improved.

[Krylian]

If we're talking offence...

 

Kirk - has always hit, so I think it's safe to assume he will continue to.

Janssen - has had long stretches of very good offence, but has also had a tough time staying healthy.

Vladdy - has had one godly season, and others that have ranged from above average to very good. Is he the godly guy or is it more likely that he's just very good?

Biggio/Merrifield/Espinal - who the f*** knows? Most likely, not a lot there, although Merrifield has had his production in the past.

Bichette - I think we all know what Bichette is. A free swinging streaky hitter who will often frustrate and at other times can lead your team.

Chapman - has shown very good offence in the past but it's been a few years now since those days. I think average to slightly above average is all we should expect.

Varsho - there is potential there to be very very good, but much of it will depend on his ability to limit the Ks and increase the BBs. Above average is where I see him.

Kiermaier - below average offense. He's not here for his offense though.

Springer - above average (if he can stay reasonably healthy).

 

There is potential for this offense to be very good. However, we can't pretend there aren't question marks all over the diamond as it pertains to production.

[Jimcanuck]

Another improvement, and a very important one, is positional flexibility.

 

Last season, CF was Springer and some guy I want to forget.

 

This year, Springer, Varsho, KK.

 

C is Jansen, Kirk, Varsho.

 

Two OF4, Biggio, Merrifield, both of whom can play other positions.

 

And there are still 2 bench positions available. If the Jays wanted they could bring in a guy like Pollack who demolishes lefties and still has some speed, and alternately platoon Varsho and KK against LH starters.

[The_DH]

Another improvement, and a very important one, is positional flexibility.

 

Last season, CF was Springer and some guy I want to forget.

 

This year, Springer, Varsho, KK.

 

C is Jansen, Kirk, Varsho.

 

Two OF4, Biggio, Merrifield, both of whom can play other positions.

 

And there are still 2 bench positions available. If the Jays wanted they could bring in a guy like Pollack who demolishes lefties and still has some speed, and alternately platoon Varsho and KK against LH starters.

 

That's why I was thinking a switch hitter like Grossman to spend some time at DH and a pinch runner type with some defense. We could have used a rule 5 type for that role.

[Stangstag]

Jansen's underlying numbers don't show any real batted ball luck, in fact his numbers earlier in his career consistently showed terrible batted ball luck compared to the results. I'd rarely ever bank on a player repeating a 140 wRC+, but it's definitely possible that Jansen could reach that. He also projects as a 120 wRC+ hitter, which is really good.

 

w/r/t second base, projections show Cavan at 106 and Whit at 98, one is above average, the other is a tick below average, neither is "below average hitting by far".

 

Bo's career wRC+ is 127 and 120 is the lowest number he's put up in any season, he swings wildly, but he gets amazing results. In a down year, Vladdy still posted a 134 wRC+, and projections have him at 166 (whether or not he meets that largely depends on his launch angle, IMO, so hopefully he's improved that a bit during the off season).

 

I have absolutely no concerns about this team scoring runs, and I think the pitching, defence, and base running have all improved.

 

You’re assuming he knows what wRC+ even means

[Spanky99]

That's why I was thinking a switch hitter like Grossman to spend some time at DH and a pinch runner type with some defense. We could have used a rule 5 type for that role.

 

Kameron Misner, Jays had a shot, but were dumn.

[Jimcanuck]

That's why I was thinking a switch hitter like Grossman to spend some time at DH and a pinch runner type with some defense. We could have used a rule 5 type for that role.

 

Grossman another option, but extreme switch hitting splits. He's been below average against RHP for his career, and last year cratered to a 48 wRC+ against RHP. 122 wRC+ against LHP.

 

Pollack and Grossman bring a similar toolbox. But Pollack has 3x the WAR for his career.

 

I expect the Jays to sign a bench bat, will come down to $ vs. projection, and possibly who will accept a bench role.

[Jonn]

It’s crazy how quickly the contrast changed but the Blue Jays very badly need a 4th OF who can smash LHP. Both Kiermaier and Varsho are putrid vs LHP. Vs a tough lefty having them both in the lineup is not an option. That’s 2 outs.

[jaysblue]

Another improvement, and a very important one, is positional flexibility.

 

Last season, CF was Springer and some guy I want to forget.

 

This year, Springer, Varsho, KK.

 

C is Jansen, Kirk, Varsho.

 

Two OF4, Biggio, Merrifield, both of whom can play other positions.

 

And there are still 2 bench positions available. If the Jays wanted they could bring in a guy like Pollack who demolishes lefties and still has some speed, and alternately platoon Varsho and KK against LH starters.

 

Positional flexibility is definitely a huge advantage for the 2023 roster. Something this team really didn't have last season.

 

Like you said, Jays have three players who can play CF very well in Springer, Varsho and KK. They have two solid catchers and Varsho who could play behind the plate as well. Depth at 2B with Biggio, Merrifield and Espinal, while one of Biggio or Merrifield who could play a corner OF spot if need be. Biggio could also play 1B and 3B if need be, same with Espinal at 3B.

[jaysblue]

It’s crazy how quickly the contrast changed but the Blue Jays very badly need a 4th OF who can smash LHP. Both Kiermaier and Varsho are putrid vs LHP. Vs a tough lefty having them both in the lineup is not an option. That’s 2 outs.

 

If Pollock can be signed and if there is roster space, would be a nice pickup as a 4th OF who starts against LHP.

 

Jays have ran successful platoons in the past. Look at Catalanotto and Reed Johnson back from 2003-2006.

[Terminator]

It’s crazy how quickly the contrast changed but the Blue Jays very badly need a 4th OF who can smash LHP. Both Kiermaier and Varsho are putrid vs LHP. Vs a tough lefty having them both in the lineup is not an option. That’s 2 outs.

 

Against lefties they can put Whit in the OF and Espinal at 2B.

[glory]

Otto Lopez might be another option. He's already on the 40 man roster, can play multiple positions, and has hit LHP in the minors (.381/.452/.543 in 125 PA in 2022 and .344/.429/.458 in 112 PA in 2021). Though it looks like he has 1 option remaining so he'll probably start in the minors.

 

Pollack, McCutchen, Grossman, Pham (unlikely due to personality), and Mancini are all out there in case the Jays want a vetrin RHB who can platoon with Kiermaier. I vaguely remember a report about the Jays trying to trade for Grossman at the trade deadline in 2021. Wouldn't surprise me if he's the one they end up getting, but a lot will depend on how much they want to allocate to that position. I can't imagine Grossman would get much coming off the season he had, but who knows in this market.

[Terminator]

 

Pollack, McCutchen, Grossman, Pham (unlikely due to personality), and Mancini are all out there in case the Jays want a vetrin RHB who can platoon with Kiermaier.

 

Are any of them better than Whit Merrifield?

[The_DH]

Kameron Misner, Jays had a shot, but were dumn.

 

Yeah somebody like that may have worked. A little late defensive replacement, pinch running for Kirk, that sort of thing.

[Jimcanuck]

Are any of them better than Whit Merrifield?

 

Pollack wRC+ vs LHP, 2022 and career - 161 and 129

 

Merrifield wRC+ vs LHP, 2022 and career - 97 and 115

 

It's a fairly significant difference that makes Pollack a consideration as a bench bat. Against tough LHP, would allow an OF of Pollack, Springer, Merrifield, sitting both KK and Varsho, at least until the later innings.

[jaysblue]

Are any of them better than Whit Merrifield?

 

Not sure they would sign here to be in a platoon, other than Pollock or Grossman maybe.

[BTS]

It's Pollock, Jim

[Jonn]

Against lefties they can put Whit in the OF and Espinal at 2B.

 

That’s one option but would also be nice to have another Outfielder.

[wilko]

That’s one option but would also be nice to have another Outfielder.

 

Who do you think will be the starting 2B? Depending on that.. they could have Biggio/Merrifield as an option as 4th OF.

[glory]

Are any of them better than Whit Merrifield?

 

Against LHP, probably. Merrifield's splits have been pretty even in his career. Pollock, McCutchen, and Grossman's splits for example are far more significant towards hitting LHP. Of those three I'd prefer whichever one comes cheaper between Pollock/McCutchen since they are more likely to not be helpless against RHP, but whether either of them would want to be a part-time/platoon bat is the question. Grossman likely has no choice.

[jaysblue]

Would the Jays have room for another outfielder?