Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[Captain_Obvious]

You had to seek that out really. He just said LG is a superior hitter in one sentence and pointed out the projections backing it up.

 

We are not looking for players at DH and then pinch running them when they get on base. An OF should play defense and hopefully be good baser runner. Gurriel being "superior" offensively is a generous characterization. They are expected to be within 10 wRC+ of each other. Here is a more objective comparison:

 

Going from Varsho to Gurriel results in:

Offense: Very slight downgrade that can be completely mitigated with reduced time against tough lefties.

Defense: Upgrade from one of the worst in the league to the very best.

Baserunning: Upgrade from one of the worst OFs in the league to one of the best.

 

Total value: Getting one of the top 10 OFs for 4 years vs a below average player for 1 year.

[Krylian]

Gurriel is a well above average hitter. He has value.

 

I think he's shown flashes of it, but has yet to do it consistently.

[Captain_Obvious]

Gurriel is a well above average hitter. He has value.

 

He is a 1-2 WAR player over 500PA. That is below average because average is 2 WAR. Espinal is average. Biggio is average. Gurriel is below average.

[Terminator]

I give the article an F. Focuses too much on Gurriel as if he was a major factor in the trade. He was a throw in. I know there was an article about how the Blue Jays needed to include him, but I am positive the conversation went like this:

 

Haze: We need you to add something on top of Moreno.

Atkins: I see, how about Horwitz or Irv Carter?

Haze: No we want Gurriel to balance our offense.

Atkins: f*** YES .. I mean .. Oh noes .. you are breaking my balls Haze .. you should know you are getting a great deal now.

 

On top of it the article just glosses over Varsho's outfield defensive numbers like they are just kind of decent when in fact they are elite. It also barely mentions that he's a decent catcher with a league average frame rate and above average pop time. He's a lot better than they give him credit for.

[Dagagad]

He is a 1-2 WAR player over 500PA. That is below average because average is 2 WAR. Espinal is average. Biggio is average. Gurriel is below average.

 

Strict WAR=value doesnt seem to line up to what guys get in FA. It’s subjective but i think good hitters are valued higher than guys who obtain more of their value from D.

[connorp]

We are not looking for players at DH and then pinch running them when they get on base. An OF should play defense and hopefully be good baser runner. Gurriel being "superior" offensively is a generous characterization. They are expected to be within 10 wRC+ of each other. Here is a more objective comparison:

 

Going from Varsho to Gurriel results in:

Offense: Very slight downgrade that can be completely mitigated with reduced time against tough lefties.

Defense: Upgrade from one of the worst in the league to the very best.

Baserunning: Upgrade from one of the worst OFs in the league to one of the best.

 

Total value: Getting one of the top 10 OFs for 4 years vs a below average player for 1 year.

 

You’re crossing over from comparing their hitting vs who is the better player. I think everyone clearly knows it’s not LG.

It was simply stated LG is a better hitter, nothing more. And I’ve been told on here 10 wRC+ is a big jump

 

The writer covered all the positive Varsho brings

[Captain_Obvious]

Strict WAR=value doesnt seem to line up to what guys get in FA. It’s subjective but i think good hitters are valued higher than guys who obtain more of their value from D.

 

Are they? Can you give examples? Terrible offensive catchers are getting over 8M per year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/omar-narvaez/13338/stats?position=C

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/christian-vazquez/9774/stats?position=C

 

Austin f***ing Hedges got 5M

 

Kiermaier got 9M and it was not because of his awesome hitting.

[Jimcanuck]

Strict WAR=value doesnt seem to line up to what guys get in FA. It’s subjective but i think good hitters are valued higher than guys who obtain more of their value from D.

 

True to some degree. In terms of where LGJ would rank in terms of value, he's probably around 30 percentile range among MLB players.

[connorp]

On top of it the article just glosses over Varsho's outfield defensive numbers like they are just kind of decent when in fact they are elite. It also barely mentions that he's a decent catcher with a league average frame rate and above average pop time. He's a lot better than they give him credit for.

 

You’re like those woke people that need to get offended. He called him a “unicorn” and noted his “huge” defensive year and talked about what positive the new OF will be?

 

What more do you want? The writer to be like “he also has a 12 inch penis and poops gold”

[Terminator]

You’re like those woke people that need to get offended. He called him a “unicorn” and noted his “huge” defensive year and talked about what positive the new OF will be?

 

What more do you want? The writer to be like “he also has a 12 inch penis and poops gold”

 

 

Wow I've never been called woke before lol. I must be getting soft in my old age.

 

To be fair I didn't even read the article since it was paywalled (probably wouldn't have read it anyway). I was just guessing.

[connorp]

One should know when he starts driving in the other lane. It happens to everyone. No animosity meant

[Captain_Obvious]

You’re crossing over from comparing their hitting vs who is the better player. I think everyone clearly knows it’s not LG.

It was simply stated LG is a better hitter, nothing more. And I’ve been told on here 10 wRC+ is a big jump

 

The writer covered all the positive Varsho brings

 

The writer over-indexed on Gurriel's hitting and barely mentioned any other facet of Gurriel's game that make him a below average MLB player overall.

 

Gurriel is a non-factor. I have been advocating dumping him for a lottery ticket right from the beginning of the offseason. His inclusion made no difference for me.

[Dagagad]

Are they? Can you give examples? Terrible offensive catchers are getting over 8M per year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/omar-narvaez/13338/stats?position=C

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/christian-vazquez/9774/stats?position=C

 

Austin f***ing Hedges got 5M

 

Kiermaier got 9M and it was not because of his awesome hitting.

 

Brantley got 3m more than KK with similar value last year.

 

I’d agree though that it doesnt as much apply to catchers.

[Terminator]

One factor involved in trading Gurriel might be that it's a little bit of a favor to both him and Merrifield as well.

 

Both are free agents after the year and are going to want playing time to show what they can do.

 

Keeping Gurriel around means he's probably just a short side platoon player at that point who would also eat into Whit's playing time as well.

 

I doubt the FO cares THAT much about something like that but having some malcontents riding pine could be a small factor.

[connorp]

The writer over-indexed on Gurriel's hitting and barely mentioned any other facet of Gurriel's game that make him a below average MLB player overall.

 

Gurriel is a non-factor. I have been advocating dumping him for a lottery ticket right from the beginning of the offseason. His inclusion made no difference for me.

 

Well, we are in agreement here. I know what’s been said but I never just take what’s said at face value. No matter what Laila says, Toronto may be ruthless, but they still do the PR thing like everyone else. Of course it “hurt” them to move him. He may not have been outright dumped but I wouldn’t be surprised to know AZ was steered that way on what else they could get

[Terminator]

Not upset that we have Swanson and Macko instead but looking back on the offseason, I wonder if keeping Teoscar and not signing KK may have been the way to go if we knew we were getting Varsho.

 

That lineup would have been insane but hindsight is 20/20

[Captain_Obvious]

Brantley got 3m more than KK with similar value last year.

 

I’d agree though that it doesnt as much apply to catchers.

 

It might be a mix. For hard defensive positions, defense is paid for in full. For other positions, players get more for offensive output.

[Dagagad]

One factor involved in trading Gurriel might be that it's a little bit of a favor to both him and Merrifield as well.

 

Both are free agents after the year and are going to want playing time to show what they can do.

 

Keeping Gurriel around means he's probably just a short side platoon player at that point who would also eat into Whit's playing time as well.

 

I doubt the FO cares THAT much about something like that but having some malcontents riding pine could be a small factor.

 

I think the priority was to move springer to a corner, get rid of Teo before he became expensive, and then find guys who could play CF. I disagree that gurriel is a throw in as people said above. He does have value but not enough to object to adding him to a trade.

[Dagagad]

It might be a mix. For hard defensive positions, defense is paid for in full. For other positions, players get more for offensive output.

 

Yea, i think this is right. Up the middle, defense is valued higher.

[Ehjays]

I think fans are really going to love the way Varsho plays. I think he'll quickly become a massive fan favourite. The guy is a f***ing stud defensively, runs the bases aggressively and cranks HRs. It's like Teo meets Pillar.

 

I agree!! I was watching the highlights of him at bat and in the field and its almost like we just traded for the "Chapman of the outfield " but even younger and more controllable.

[Captain_Obvious]

Not upset that we have Swanson and Macko instead but looking back on the offseason, I wonder if keeping Teoscar and not signing KK may have been the way to go if we knew we were getting Varsho.

 

That lineup would have been insane but hindsight is 20/20

 

Yea. For 2023, Varsho in CF, Springer in RF, Teo in LF would have been great. But the current arrangement for BP and OF is not far behind in terms of expected overall production. The trade will hopefully continue paying dividends beyond 2023.

[glory]

Not upset that we have Swanson and Macko instead but looking back on the offseason, I wonder if keeping Teoscar and not signing KK may have been the way to go if we knew we were getting Varsho.

 

That lineup would have been insane but hindsight is 20/20

 

That was my thought as well. An OF of Hernandez-Varsho-Springer left to right would have looked good on paper. Of course that is discounting some of the other factors, mainly cost. Hernandez/Kiermaier is a projected $5m difference, and if the Jays had to find a reliever with Swanson's profile in free agency that would have cost some significant payroll space as well.

[Terminator]

That was my thought as well. An OF of Hernandez-Varsho-Springer left to right would have looked good on paper. Of course that is discounting some of the other factors, mainly cost. Hernandez/Kiermaier is a projected $5m difference, and if the Jays had to find a reliever with Swanson's profile in free agency that would have cost some significant payroll space as well.

 

Yeah the bullpen and defense would be worse and it would be a little more expensive too.

 

But man that lineup 1 through 9 would be NUTS.

[Spanky99]

Yea, i think this is right. Up the middle, defense is valued higher.

 

Always.

[The Iceman]

Law's take

 

This take may be insufficiently warm for the hot stove, but the trade that sent Daulton Varsho from Arizona to Toronto for Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel might be good for both sides.

 

Varsho had a quiet breakout in 2022, hitting .235/.302/.443 in hitter-friendly Phoenix but playing elite defense in the outfield while also going behind the plate for 31 games. He’s not a good defensive catcher but is a plus runner and athlete who was way above league average in center field and right field last year, racking up 18 Outs Above Average and 16 runs prevented by Statcast’s measures — ranking fifth and third in baseball in those categories, respectively. He’s become a fairly extreme dead-pull hitter, sacrificing contact and some contact quality for more power. He hit 27 homers last year, a career-high at any level, but it came with the highest strikeout rate he’s posted except for his debut in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

 

In exchange for Varsho, who has four years of team control remaining and is arbitration-eligible for the first time this year as a super-two player, the Diamondbacks get the Blue Jays’ No. 1 prospect going into 2022, catcher Gabriel Moreno, and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel. Moreno is a super-athletic catcher who offers plus defense and a high-contact approach that probably won’t produce much power but should lead to strong on-base percentages because he makes so much line-drive contact. He’s got an above-average arm, blocks and receives well, and has made huge strides in working with pitchers given his age. He’s very aggressive at the plate, rarely walking or striking out because his plate coverage is so good, although it’s possible he’ll have to make adjustments in that area against big-league pitching. He’s ready to take over as the regular catcher in Arizona, which would make Carson Kelly a backup or a potential trade piece, although it might be two or three years before we see Moreno get to that 4-5 WAR ceiling.

 

 

Gurriel had a disappointing 2022 season as all of his power evaporated, but he underwent surgery after the season to address a broken hamate bone, which could easily explain the power outage. He’s a free agent after 2023, and could give the D-Backs an offensive boost in left field, allowing them to trade center fielder Alek Thomas, or could be traded himself. He needs to hit for some more thump to be even a passable regular, as he’s a below-average defender anywhere, even in left field, and doesn’t walk.

 

The trade would appear to help both clubs, since the Blue Jays did have a surplus behind the plate, and the Diamondbacks have a surplus in the outfield that’s only going to get worse over time. That said, I think I prefer Arizona’s end of the deal, as it took on a bit more risk to get a lot more ceiling – and it gets six years of Moreno versus Toronto getting four of Varsho. Arizona is still building toward contention and is better situated to take on that risk to get a potential superstar in Moreno, while the Blue Jays may have decided to go with the surer thing in their Alejandro Kirk/Danny Jansen catching tandem. Kirk played 78 games at catcher last year and 51 at DH, hitting .285/.372/.415 for a 3.9 rWAR/3.8 fWAR season. Jansen caught 63 games, with three starts at DH, and hit .260/.339/.516 for 2.9 rWAR/2.6 fWAR. Jansen has never been able to stay healthy for a full season, reaching 400 plate appearances only one time in his professional career, in 2017, and I’m not confident at all that he could hold this kind of production if he played every day. He’s in the perfect spot, with Kirk the better hitter and better able to handle the higher workload.

 

If you’re the Blue Jays, even if you completely believe in Moreno’s potential, the odds of him outproducing the Kirk/Jansen duo in 2023 are just not that high. There were only two 5-WAR catchers in baseball last year per Fangraphs, J.T. Realmuto and the recently traded Sean Murphy. Kirk and Jansen produced 6.4 fWAR between them — although that includes Kirk’s DH time — but even if we conservatively set their total catching value at 5 WAR, you can see how high a bar that is for Moreno to clear right now. I believe he’ll get there in time, but the Blue Jays value winning in 2023-24 over the long term, while Arizona has the luxury of patience and can bet on Moreno becoming that 5-win catcher, even if it doesn’t come for a few years. The D-Backs have the better chance to end up with more total value out of the trade, but the Blue Jays are clearly a better team right now than they were before the deal, as Varsho is at least a 3-win upgrade over Gurriel if we just assume he takes over in a corner; and if Kevin Kiermaier gets hurt the Jays now have a viable alternative in center. Each of these teams had a surplus of good players and made a very old-fashioned sort of trade that leaves both clubs better off. What a concept.

[Jays24]

Law's take

 

This take may be insufficiently warm for the hot stove, but the trade that sent Daulton Varsho from Arizona to Toronto for Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel might be good for both sides.

 

Varsho had a quiet breakout in 2022, hitting .235/.302/.443 in hitter-friendly Phoenix but playing elite defense in the outfield while also going behind the plate for 31 games. He’s not a good defensive catcher but is a plus runner and athlete who was way above league average in center field and right field last year, racking up 18 Outs Above Average and 16 runs prevented by Statcast’s measures — ranking fifth and third in baseball in those categories, respectively. He’s become a fairly extreme dead-pull hitter, sacrificing contact and some contact quality for more power. He hit 27 homers last year, a career-high at any level, but it came with the highest strikeout rate he’s posted except for his debut in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

 

In exchange for Varsho, who has four years of team control remaining and is arbitration-eligible for the first time this year as a super-two player, the Diamondbacks get the Blue Jays’ No. 1 prospect going into 2022, catcher Gabriel Moreno, and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel. Moreno is a super-athletic catcher who offers plus defense and a high-contact approach that probably won’t produce much power but should lead to strong on-base percentages because he makes so much line-drive contact. He’s got an above-average arm, blocks and receives well, and has made huge strides in working with pitchers given his age. He’s very aggressive at the plate, rarely walking or striking out because his plate coverage is so good, although it’s possible he’ll have to make adjustments in that area against big-league pitching. He’s ready to take over as the regular catcher in Arizona, which would make Carson Kelly a backup or a potential trade piece, although it might be two or three years before we see Moreno get to that 4-5 WAR ceiling.

 

 

Gurriel had a disappointing 2022 season as all of his power evaporated, but he underwent surgery after the season to address a broken hamate bone, which could easily explain the power outage. He’s a free agent after 2023, and could give the D-Backs an offensive boost in left field, allowing them to trade center fielder Alek Thomas, or could be traded himself. He needs to hit for some more thump to be even a passable regular, as he’s a below-average defender anywhere, even in left field, and doesn’t walk.

 

The trade would appear to help both clubs, since the Blue Jays did have a surplus behind the plate, and the Diamondbacks have a surplus in the outfield that’s only going to get worse over time. That said, I think I prefer Arizona’s end of the deal, as it took on a bit more risk to get a lot more ceiling – and it gets six years of Moreno versus Toronto getting four of Varsho. Arizona is still building toward contention and is better situated to take on that risk to get a potential superstar in Moreno, while the Blue Jays may have decided to go with the surer thing in their Alejandro Kirk/Danny Jansen catching tandem. Kirk played 78 games at catcher last year and 51 at DH, hitting .285/.372/.415 for a 3.9 rWAR/3.8 fWAR season. Jansen caught 63 games, with three starts at DH, and hit .260/.339/.516 for 2.9 rWAR/2.6 fWAR. Jansen has never been able to stay healthy for a full season, reaching 400 plate appearances only one time in his professional career, in 2017, and I’m not confident at all that he could hold this kind of production if he played every day. He’s in the perfect spot, with Kirk the better hitter and better able to handle the higher workload.

 

If you’re the Blue Jays, even if you completely believe in Moreno’s potential, the odds of him outproducing the Kirk/Jansen duo in 2023 are just not that high. There were only two 5-WAR catchers in baseball last year per Fangraphs, J.T. Realmuto and the recently traded Sean Murphy. Kirk and Jansen produced 6.4 fWAR between them — although that includes Kirk’s DH time — but even if we conservatively set their total catching value at 5 WAR, you can see how high a bar that is for Moreno to clear right now. I believe he’ll get there in time, but the Blue Jays value winning in 2023-24 over the long term, while Arizona has the luxury of patience and can bet on Moreno becoming that 5-win catcher, even if it doesn’t come for a few years. The D-Backs have the better chance to end up with more total value out of the trade, but the Blue Jays are clearly a better team right now than they were before the deal, as Varsho is at least a 3-win upgrade over Gurriel if we just assume he takes over in a corner; and if Kevin Kiermaier gets hurt the Jays now have a viable alternative in center. Each of these teams had a surplus of good players and made a very old-fashioned sort of trade that leaves both clubs better off. What a concept.

 

Now that's a great take!

[G-Snarls]

GMs Ross Atkins, Mike Hazen Share Details On Blue Jays/Diamondbacks Trade

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/blue-jays-close-to-acquiring-daulton-varsho.html

[Masterbather]

It should be noted, that many people like this trade partly because it gives us a decent LHB everyday player, but the need for an everyday LHB has been completely overrated and was completely unnecessary.

 

This team mashed RHP. We have done nothing to improve that, we have actually taken a step backwards in that regard and now have also worsened our ability to hit LHP. This offseason really hurt the one area of the team that was good.

 

I love that we improved our defense, I really do, and I know there are $ considerations also (although that's Rogers' problem so I'm not making that mine as a fan) but we hurt the bread and butter part of our team.

 

Just a better bullpen and starting pitching help. That's all we needed. The task was straightforward. Now it got all complicated and we have fewer pieces to work with in trades. We could've rolled out the same team with another starter (and a little bit of AAAA starting depth) with a couple of better bullpen arms and we could've taken a massive step forward.

 

I've had a couple of days to sober up to the deal, and I still don't like it.

[Captain_Obvious]

It should be noted, that many people like this trade partly because it gives us a decent LHB everyday player, but the need for an everyday LHB has been completely overrated and was completely unnecessary.

 

This team mashed RHP. We have done nothing to improve that, we have actually taken a step backwards in that regard and now have also worsened our ability to hit LHP. This offseason really hurt the one area of the team that was good.

 

I love that we improved our defense, I really do, and I know there are $ considerations also (although that's Rogers' problem so I'm not making that mine as a fan) but we hurt the bread and butter part of our team.

 

Just a better bullpen and starting pitching help. That's all we needed. The task was straightforward. Now it got all complicated and we have fewer pieces to work with in trades. We could've rolled out the same team with another starter (and a little bit of AAAA starting depth) with a couple of better bullpen arms and we could've taken a massive step forward.

 

I've had a couple of days to sober up to the deal, and I still don't like it.

 

You are looking at this all wrong. We replaced 1 year of a 2.5 WAR OF and 1 year of a 1.5 WAR OF with 4 prime years of a 4+ WAR OF and 1 year of 2 WAR OF while adding a very good BP piece for 3 years. The blue jays added 2-3 wins for 2023 and are in a much better position for 2024 and 2025.

[WryNGinger]

Wow I've never been called woke before lol. I must be getting soft in my old age.

 

To be fair I didn't even read the article since it was paywalled (probably wouldn't have read it anyway). I was just guessing.

 

. I don't always agree with what you say but "woke:? Yah....ummm...no