Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[Carlos Danger]

There’s no magic formula. You need a bit of everything. The last 2 years and 4 losses, the Jays have lost games differently. The pen is probably the most glaring but the bats were completely limp in 2 of the 4. So going backwards in that category while improving it others really wasn’t ideal. Ideally you could’ve found a CF and Teo would be fine in RF. Over the course of a season he’ll lose value in the field, but not really in a 3 game series. His main issue seemed to be focus on D and like the NBA, I imagine players like that see a boost come playoffs

 

Jays decided not to really go for 2023 though and take the payroll flexibility and longer term vision. Nothing wrong with it and I wouldn’t argue it’s not the “smart” way, especially if Swanson works out. But it’s definitely a different approach than the teams trying to win the whole thing next year

 

I like Bassitt though. If he stays what he has been at least. Run prevention center just be better pitching too

 

Remember 2015 at the trade deadline. We were something like 185 plus in runs scored vs runs against but a .500 team. Tulu, Price, Rivera the pen guys were all for run prevention. We didn’t have a run scoring problem. Once we shored up the run prevention, we ended up going on a run and won the Division.

 

Also, a tight playoff game, against playoff teams #1 -# 3 SPs you want a dynamic offense that can score in different ways. Teo and LGR were the same thing and you could attack them from the pen the same way. Varsho and KK change it up and give us some other ways to score runs. Plus you are still getting 27 HRs and 16 SBs from Varsho with his trends going upwards..

[connorp]

Remember 2015 at the trade deadline. We were something like 185 plus in runs scored vs runs against but a .500 team. Tulu, Price, Rivera the pen guys were all for run prevention. We didn’t have a run scoring problem. Once we shored up the run prevention, we ended up going on a run and won the Division.

 

Also, a tight playoff game, against playoff teams #1 -# 3 SPs you want a dynamic offense that can score in different ways. Teo and LGR were the same thing and you could attack them from the pen the same way. Varsho and KK change it up and give us some other ways to score runs. Plus you are still getting 27 HRs and 16 SBs from Varsho with his trends going upwards..

 

I don’t really do backflips to fit everything to one narrative. I can see different perspectives. You like the deals they made and so it’s like “oh they didn’t lose anything on offense really”. Ok. That’s fine

[Captain_Obvious]

What I meant to say is that he's got a good chance to be an elite defensive catcher and his bat projects to be the same as Varsho, but at a much younger age. He's also got more team control.

 

This doesn't mean we "lose" the trade, but we didn't get anywhere close to fair value. We gave up our leverage took the hit to address an area of need. The Diamondbacks made out like bandits. It's a massive win for them.

 

Varsho has been a 4+ WAR per 550PA for two years now. What exactly did you expect he'd cost? Who do you think would be a better return for Moreno?

[Laika]

My dad told me before he died repeatedly

 

I am very sorry that your dad died repeatedly, Carlos.

 

Groundhog Day situation?

[Carlos Danger]

I am very sorry that your dad died repeatedly, Carlos.

 

Groundhog Day situation?

 

I should have asked for a comma for Christmas…

[Grant77]

Varsho has been a 4+ WAR per 550PA for two years now. What exactly did you expect he'd cost? Who do you think would be a better return for Moreno?

 

For giving up 2 years of term and an additional player with modest value, I would expect someone who is better than Moreno projects to be. That's probably not the case.

[Virgil_Hiltz]

This trade won't be evaluated equally. The Dbacks at this point gets evaluated by cross-referencing the players stats. While the Jays gets graded by hopefully playoff success.

[max silver]

For giving up 2 years of term and an additional player with modest value, I would expect someone who is better than Moreno projects to be. That's probably not the case.

 

We simply don't know how Moreno projects moving forward. He has a very broad range of potential outcomes hinging on whether he manages to rediscover his power stroke. If he's largely a singles hitter a huge chunk of his offensive potential is not going to be realized.

 

Gurriel had very little trade value so he doesn't really have a material affect on the value of this trade.

[Captain_Obvious]

For giving up 2 years of term and an additional player with modest value, I would expect someone who is better than Moreno projects to be. That's probably not the case.

 

I see. So you just looked up projection numbers and thought this is definitely the future for both players. I bet the Blue Jays FO completely ignores their own analytics department and follows a public projection system that has an 80th percentile outcome that is worse than the previous two years of established performance despite the player being at the beginning of his prime years. Just amazing.

[Grant77]

I see. So you just looked up projection numbers and thought this is definitely the future for both players. I bet the Blue Jays FO completely ignores their own analytics department and follows a public projection system that has an 80th percentile outcome that is worse than the previous two years of established performance despite the player being at the beginning of his prime years. Just amazing.

 

I never claimed that the Blue Jays ignored their own analytics team. They clearly believe that Moreno isn't going to be a quality starter, but a lot of people believe that he will be.

[Captain_Obvious]

I never claimed that the Blue Jays ignored their own analytics team. They clearly believe that Moreno isn't going to be a quality starter, but a lot of people believe that he will be.

 

I think you got it the other way around. They believe Moreno will be very good and they also believe Varsho is going be at least as good in the OF.

[L54]

I never claimed that the Blue Jays ignored their own analytics team. They clearly believe that Moreno isn't going to be a quality starter, but a lot of people believe that he will be.

 

I don’t think it’s clear that they believe that at all. The bar isn’t very high at catcher in terms of quality starter.

[WryNGinger]

The Jays did exactly what teams (real life and video games...) are supposed to do. Draft and develop talent, then use that talent to improve your teams roster or trade that surplus talent to fill gaps that development didn't fill. That's what they did. The perceived value of that talent is just about perspective and the internal methods that each team uses to assess that talent. The Jays saw a valuable piece with 4 years control that filled a gap in the teams structure. They had a somewhat redundant piece to trade for it. It's literally a win-win for both of these teams.

 

The spray chart overlay with AL team parks, the change in the shift rule, the intensity that will affect the dug-out, the running out plays to first etc and the cost control for 4 years were things the team desperately needed to fix. They affected all of these things with one trade. That's a huge f***ing win. I love Moreno but the Jays need Varsho more than him right now.

[Laika]

You could “project” Moreno as a 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4 win player

 

And Varsho as a 4, 4, 4, 4 win player, and reasonably still do the deal based on team need and context.

 

Moreno would have bigger error bars on his projections of course. Higher chance of being below average

[Dagagad]

I think Moreno was pretty obviously an overpay. He has all the tools to have a good bit higher ceiling than Varsho, mostly because of the hit tool.

 

I also think that not doing the Teo trade, not signing KK and spending that money elsewhere MIGHT have made us a better team this year.

 

However, all the choices were pretty logical and intentional.. which is all you can ask for.

[Brownie19]

I never claimed that the Blue Jays ignored their own analytics team. They clearly believe that Moreno isn't going to be a quality starter, but a lot of people believe that he will be.

 

What a bizarre thing to say.

[Dagagad]

One more thing on this, the most likely way this falls apart for me is that jansen doesnt stay healthy. Moreno to my knowledge had one freak injury.

 

We could look back at this and think that a jansen trade should have been the way to go.

 

Also, cheap Moreno would have been very helpful as we try to build around vlad and Bo.

[Grant77]

What a bizarre thing to say.

 

I said the same thing about Austin Martin and was correct (moreso Atkins than myself). We'll have to see if they are also correct in this evaluation. They wouldn't have moved him otherwise, as they wouldn't knowingly make a bad trade.

[Dagagad]

I said the same thing about Austin Martin and was correct. We'll have to see if they are also correct in this evaluation. They wouldn't have moved him otherwise.

 

Austin Martin never really raked though.

[Grant77]

Martin put up a better wRC+ than Moreno at rhe same age, albeit at AA rather than AAA. There's only the one partial season to compare. He was also ranked #19 by BA. Atkins clearly knew better.

[G-Snarls]

Martin put up a better wRC+ than Moreno at rhe same age, albeit at AA rather than AAA. There's only the one partial season to compare. He was also ranked #19 by BA. Atkins clearly knew better.

 

Or maybe it's just that sometimes you have to trade a good player to get a good player...

[John_Havok]

I said the same thing about Austin Martin and was correct (moreso Atkins than myself). We'll have to see if they are also correct in this evaluation. They wouldn't have moved him otherwise, as they wouldn't knowingly make a bad trade.

 

Teams move prospects they think will be above average all the time if they get the return they want.

[Dagagad]

Martin put up a better wRC+ than Moreno at rhe same age, albeit at AA rather than AAA. There's only the one partial season to compare. He was also ranked #19 by BA. Atkins clearly knew better.

 

Moreno put up a way better WRC+ at a younger age in double A. He mashed before his injury in a way that Martin has never done, which is why Martin has been stuck at the same level for two years. He also plays a premium up the middle position.

[Carlos Danger]

One more thing on this, the most likely way this falls apart for me is that jansen doesnt stay healthy. Moreno to my knowledge had one freak injury.

 

We could look back at this and think that a jansen trade should have been the way to go.

 

Also, cheap Moreno would have been very helpful as we try to build around vlad and Bo.

 

I don’t think we could have received much that moved the needle for Jansen unless they would have moved him. We can’t just keep waiting for more specs to maybe pan out and lose our window. It also goes to roster management. Now you can DH a catcher and not have to carry three catchers. I don’t think you could effectively get both Moreno and Kirk’s bat in the lineup daily so not ideal either.

[Dagagad]

I don’t think we could have received much that moved the needle for Jansen unless they would have moved him. We can’t just keep waiting for more specs to maybe pan out and lose our window. It also goes to roster management. Now you can DH a catcher and not have to carry three catchers. I don’t think you could effectively get both Moreno and Kirk’s bat in the lineup daily so not ideal either.

 

I think there were jansen reliever trades talked about that made sense to me. Play moreno and kirk in a tandem with Kirk getting more time at DH.

[InsideThePark]

I think Moreno was pretty obviously an overpay. He has all the tools to have a good bit higher ceiling than Varsho, mostly because of the hit tool.

 

I also think that not doing the Teo trade, not signing KK and spending that money elsewhere MIGHT have made us a better team this year.

 

However, all the choices were pretty logical and intentional.. which is all you can ask for.

 

What money? Keeping Teo and not signing Kiermaier is the more expensive option

[The_DH]

What money? Keeping Teo and not signing Kiermaier is the more expensive option

 

I sometimes wonder if we had played Moreno a bit more last year if he would have improved his value.

[Captain_Obvious]

I think there were jansen reliever trades talked about that made sense to me. Play moreno and kirk in a tandem with Kirk getting more time at DH.

 

If you revert the Varsho trade and do the Jansen for Helsley

 

Catcher: Kirk + Jansen ===> Kirk + Moreno

Production change: Likely neutral in 2023 and 2024. 2025 depends on a lot of factors (Jansen extension, every catcher performance and health, etc...)

 

BP: +1 very good BP for 2-3 years.

Production change: +1 WAR for 2-3 years in the BP

 

OF: Varsho (LF) ===> Gurriel (LF)

Production change: -2 to -3 WAR for 2023. Two OF positions to fill in 2024 and beyond with little OF depth in the farm. Top potential free agent OFs are Happ, Teo, and Bader. All of them are much older and project to produce a bit worse than Varsho.

 

 

I think the team is clearly better off with the Varsho trade in the short and medium term. Debatable in the long-term.

[connorp]

I sometimes wonder if we had played Moreno a bit more last year if he would have improved his value.

 

Only if he hit for more power, which it didn’t look like it was going to happen.

[Carlos Danger]

I think there were jansen reliever trades talked about that made sense to me. Play moreno and kirk in a tandem with Kirk getting more time at DH.

 

If you DH a catcher and one gets hurt, you lose the DH. Also if one catcher gets hurt as in IL, now you have some AAAA scrub getting a lot of ABs. In this scenario you have Varsho and still have a above average catching duo. We used Teo for an RP. Now we have a LHB, back up catcher that isn’t a black hole at the plate, doesn’t take up a roster spot and gives us excellent OF D and base running/SB threat.