Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[John_Havok]

there is a measurement issue with defensive metrics

 

but that does not necessarily mean player talent is inconsistent

 

Exactly. Many defensive metrics rely on # of chances and how difficult those chances are. Maybe a guy never gets a ton of 4 or 5 star chances, and even if they don't convert many into outs, well, they were never supposed to make that many in the first place. Plus, you don't get really get credit for making the 1 star plays, since... everyone should make those plays. It's the 3 Star plays and their percentage of out conversions that make a really big difference. If a player gets a disproportionate # of 3 star chances and does even slightly better than average on them, that system would rank that player very high defensively.

[connorp]

I’m assuming UZR doesn’t take fielder positioning into account. Like if someone rips a bullet up the middle with an expected Ba of .800 but someone is right there, that’s a tough play, right?

[Spanky99]

I’m assuming UZR doesn’t take fielder positioning into account. Like if someone rips a bullet up the middle with an expected Ba of .800 but someone is right there, that’s a tough play, right?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/

 

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-introduces-outs-above-average-for-infield-defense

Edited January 4, 2023 by Spanky99

[G-Snarls]

I’m assuming UZR doesn’t take fielder positioning into account. Like if someone rips a bullet up the middle with an expected Ba of .800 but someone is right there, that’s a tough play, right?

 

Didn't they fix it a few years ago?

 

I remember Brett Lawrie being brought up as an example of someone inappropriately affected by UZR because he was deployed in shallow RF so much and his range was nuts

[connorp]

Didn't they fix it a few years ago?

 

I remember Brett Lawrie being brought up as an example of someone inappropriately affected by UZR because he was deployed in shallow RF so much and his range was nuts

 

I guess as Spanky has so graciously provided, Statcast does know and factor exactly where a fielder is.

[Pendleton]

When are you going to make a mail order bride joke and keep it personal?

 

Have you seen the movie Taken? If so, do you consider Liam Neeson the hero or the villain?

[Stangstag]

Have you seen the movie Taken? If so, do you consider Liam Neeson the hero or the villain?

 

Loll

[connorp]

Have you seen the movie Taken? If so, do you consider Liam Neeson the hero or the villain?

 

You’re making a Bradley Zimmer/Mike Trout comp here. Keep it in the Napoleon Dynamite family of characters

[Olerud363]

The extreme examples are for demonstration purposes. Real expected W-L can be calculated using real numbers but these usually result in 1-3 wins difference. Now if you want to discuss impact of runs produced vs runs allowed on actual W-L records, then we need to also discuss a new topic: runs per game distribution and allocation. Here is a hint: The 23 runs difference Toronto produced in a single game vs Boston was fun and had a large impact on expected wins-loss for the season, but was mostly useless for producing actual wins.

 

But to be fair you have to take the corresponding worst loss out as well. I believe it was 12-0. But some years the worse loss is 21-2 or something and everyone says you can't use the expected W-L because the worse loss was so bad.

 

So the worst loss and best win was 28-17 or something... so there was a asymmetry but not that dramatic.

[Captain_Obvious]

But to be fair you have to take the corresponding worst loss out as well. I believe it was 12-0. But some years the worse loss is 21-2 or something and everyone says you can't use the expected W-L because the worse loss was so bad.

 

So the worst loss and best win was 28-17 or something... so there was a asymmetry but not that dramatic.

 

 

Yes. Now you're getting into how to beat the Pythagorean expected W-L. Teams can mostly do that by manipulating their run prevention because batting lineup is mostly fixed. A good example is having a good BP with a couple of elite BP arms probably helps as teams can more often translate their runs scored into wins when those runs matter the most.

[Spanky99]

Have you seen the movie Taken? If so, do you consider Liam Neeson the hero or the villain?

 

Oh my... lmao

[The Iceman]

Fun fact of the day...

Daulton Varsho has singled on 15 of 16 bases-empty bunt attempts over the last two seasons”

[wilko]

Fun fact of the day...

Daulton Varsho has singled on 15 of 16 bases-empty bunt attempts over the last two seasons”

 

Can't see that happening as much now that the shift is gonzo. Impressive though.

[Captain_Obvious]

Can't see that happening as much now that the shift is gonzo. Impressive though.

 

The fangraphs article actually said that the vast majority of his bunt singles were not to the 3rd base side. The shift did not factor into his success.

[wilko]

The fangraphs article actually said that the vast majority of his bunt singles were not to the 3rd base side. The shift did not factor into his success.

 

I stand by my statement.

[kevb]

I stand by my statement.

 

I see it actually happening more.

 

A majority of his bunts for hits come from bunting to the right side past the pitcher. With the banning of the shift, this becomes even more of a weapon. Their options are either 2B playing deep to get to more balls, or playing in tighter to limit the bunt. This is making it much easier for Varsho to pull a ball past the 2B due to his pull happy profile and the lack of reaction time available.

 

Going to be interesting. I could see KK also going this way with his sprint speed.

[Laika]

But if they can't shift him maybe Varsho just doesn't feel the need to bunt as often

[kevb]

But if they can't shift him maybe Varsho just doesn't feel the need to bunt as often

 

A majority of his bunts came on drag bunts past the pitcher to the first base side into the shift. If anything, there should be more room and more impetus to do this.

[Laika]

A majority of his bunts came on drag bunts past the pitcher to the first base side into the shift. If anything, there should be more room and more impetus to do this.

 

Well there would be less impetus because swinging away into a traditional defense would in theory = a higher chance to get a hit, versus swinging away into the shift.

 

I don't think shift or no shift changes his odds of getting on when drag bunting. The second baseman typically has no influence on those plays unless the batter completely f***s up the bunt. It's normally between the P and 1B to kill that bunt attempt.

[Jimcanuck]

With Varsho a threat to steal, he definitely should be bunting himself on in the right circumstances.

[Brownie19]

A majority of his bunts came on drag bunts past the pitcher to the first base side into the shift. If anything, there should be more room and more impetus to do this.

 

Is this true?

 

The traditional shift was to put someone in short RF (let's say it's the 2nd baseman), with the SS playing where the 2nd baseman typically would be (albeit more up the middle) and the 1st baseman in his normal spot. 3rd base would shift over and play near where the SS typically was. This created a cavity where you could pull a bunt past the pitcher, too far away from 1st base and it would be in no-mans land.

 

Now, the SS will essentially play right behind 2nd base, the 2nd baseman will have to be shallower - on the edge of the dirt. This will tighten up that hole I think and make that type of bunt harder to execute. Am I missing something?

[wilko]

With Varsho a threat to steal, he definitely should be bunting himself on in the right circumstances.

 

Would you go as far to say he should sac bunt at times?

[Jimcanuck]

Would you go as far to say he should sac bunt at times?

 

If he is as good a bunter as it appears, and the Jays are looking to move the runner at 2B over in a tie game, late inning, Varsho bunting is a good option.

[John_Havok]

If he is as good a bunter as it appears, and the Jays are looking to move the runner at 2B over in a tie game, late inning, Varsho bunting is a good option.

 

Very infrequently is that a good option.

[Jimcanuck]

Very infrequently is that a good option.

 

True, for normal players. Varsho is not your normal player though. Good chance he's safe at first and the runner safe at 3B.

 

I would leave it up to Varsho. If the 2B is playing deep, he can bunt to move the runner if he wants, and maybe beat it out.

[John_Havok]

True, for normal players. Varsho is not your normal player though. Good chance he's safe at first and the runner safe at 3B.

 

Good chance the corners will be playing in and he's just giving himself up. I agree he should not be prevented from trying to bunt for base hits, but with the shift being limited, the defense will be much better positioned to defend bunts since they wont be way out deep in the OF grass where he just has to get it past the pitcher. Looking at that video from last season and how many bunt hits he got, that was the vast majority of them.

 

The time and place for sac bunting 2nd to 3rd is basically bottom of the 8th or later in a tie game at home...that situation really doesnt come up very often.

[peterkim]

we could get Ohtani with this package

[Carlos Danger]

we could get Ohtani with this package

 

Moreno and LGR??????

[Deadpool]

we could get Ohtani with this package

 

Why don't you start a new thread about it?

 

PS, if you do that, I will ban you.

[Krylian]

Moreno and LGR??????

 

Ohtani +