Blue Jays acquire Daulton Varsho for Moreno and Gurriel

[Olerud363]

Just looking at some of the other targets we had before the Varsho trade. Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy would have been huge misses. Corbin Carroll would have been spectacular, obviously. Moreno was a similar calibre of prospect, both top 10 guys. I wonder how much more we would have needed to get him.

 

Varsho has been a disappointment, obviously, but I still believe he's a useful piece going forward. This issue with this trade, as some pointed out, was that giving up an elite prospect for a non-superstar is almost always a mistake. Long term successful teams like the Dodgers don't make trades like that. They get guys like Mookie Betts for less than what we gave up.

 

I think Moreno was at one time ranked as the number one prospect in baseball by Baseball America, however I think that was mostly a fluke due to promotions. Like he was maybe 5 or 6 to start 2022, and the guys ahead either got promoted or totally imploded. Then like a couple weeks after getting the '#1' he graduated not because of at bats, but days on the MLB roster I think.

 

Moreno was really hard to evaluate because of the his 2021 injury, and lack of power. And even though he is having a nice season this year both fWAR and bWAR have Moreno and Varsho as very close.

 

Dodgers traded Jeter Downs, Alex Verdugo, and maybe one other guy, for 1 year of Betts and David Price's contract. I don't know off hand how much of Price's contract they took on. At the time Downs was doing great as a 20 year old in A+/AA and Alex Verdugo was a 23 year old, 3 bWAR/2 fWAR guy in 2/3 of a season with good contact abilities and 5 years of control left.

 

Depending how much you trust the defensive stats Varsho is still a potential 4-5 WAR piece moving forward. To put up 3.5 bWAR/2 fWAR hitting .218 is actually kind of impressive. At this point I guess the chances of an offensive breakout are way down, but if he plays centerfield next year and somehow hits .250 with a power bounce back? That's a nice player.

[Olerud363]

Head of the nerds. Go out and scout a game once in awhile or something

 

lol. You think Laika is a nerd? As far as I know the guy doesn't know how to code and is way more in tune with scouting reports and how scouting is done than most anyone else here.

 

Varsho, Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez were all similar in their age 25 season. Out of the three Teoscar was the one who broke out, Grichuk flat-lined, and Varsho (thus far) has fallen apart as a hitter because his power has gone down.

 

Are you saying the super-scouts on the board knew that would happen? lol. I don't recall anybody accurately predicting that Hernandez was the one who would hit .280 with power for his 3 year prime. Super-scouts are good looking back, though maybe I'm wrong and the super-scouts who watch every game on MLB-TV knew that Varsho would take a step back as a hitter, and tried to warn us on this thread. I'll have to read it over.

[Olerud363]

Are you saying the super-scouts on the board knew that would happen? lol. I don't recall anybody accurately predicting that Hernandez was the one who would hit .280 with power for his 3 year prime. Super-scouts are good looking back, though maybe I'm wrong and the super-scouts who watch every game on MLB-TV knew that Varsho would take a step back as a hitter, and tried to warn us on this thread. I'll have to read it over.

 

 

What I am saying is that, everyone is right about something some of the time, and can bring up their victories to show how right they are (while ignoring their losses).

 

So even is someone used their super-scouting abilities to tell us Varsho was going to suck at hitting, it's not enough. They need a long term track record of looking at several guys like Varsho at age 25 (Hernandez, Grichuk, Varsho and more) and using their scouting abilities to accurately tell us what will happen age 26-28.

[deanmike]

Varsho will no hyperbole have 0 remaining haters once he is the everyday CF going forward. Not his fault he was forced to play LF this year since Atkins signed KK. His defensive prowess is less valuable away from CF.

 

He literally has more fWAR per PA at CF this season than KK. But don't get it twisted while the haters try to cloud your judgement. Atkins traded for an everyday CF of the future this past offseason who has another 3 years of control after this. The Varsho haters must think that KK signed a lifetime contract with us and that gold glove caliber everyday CFs grow on trees. They don't grow on trees, in fact it's closer to looking for a needle in a haystack. Shut the f*** up Varsho haters.

[The Cats Ass]

Varsho will no hyperbole have 0 remaining haters once he is the everyday CF going forward. Not his fault he was forced to play LF this year since Atkins signed KK. His defensive prowess is less valuable away from CF.

 

He literally has more fWAR per PA at CF this season than KK. But don't get it twisted while the haters try to cloud your judgement. Atkins traded for an everyday CF of the future this past offseason who has another 3 years of control after this. The Varsho haters must think that KK signed a lifetime contract with us and that gold glove caliber everyday CFs grow on trees. They don't grow on trees, in fact it's closer to looking for a needle in a haystack. Shut the f*** up Varsho haters.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&type=1&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&sortcol=12&sortdir=desc&qual=100&pagenum=1

 

His DRS numbers in CF this year blow every other player out of the water.

[Olerud363]

I'd love to see Varsho trim that K rate a bit and take a few more walks, but there's nothing really to hate in his batted ball metrics.

 

Jays now have 3 CFs in the OF with Merrifield/Biggio as the defacto backups when they're not playing the infield.

 

This kind of happened. K rate down a small bit, bb rate up a small bit. Like a really small bit. xWRC+ up. Real WRC+ down.

 

Hard hit rate down a bit. Popup rate up. Line drive rate fine.

 

Probably fair to say a bit of bad luck in 2023 and moving forward could be more like 2022.

 

Probably the kind of guy that will hit .300 the first month of 2024 and the announcers will marvel at the adjustments, and he will no longer hit popups or swing at high fastballs, until he does again starting May 3rd and will finished with a .237 average, but hopefully 25 homers instead of 18.

[Olerud363]

You trade your best catching prospect for a 108WRC hitter lol. And both guys you traded project for higher.

 

Fair enough. But I think this was based on nerd stats (projection) and not super-scouting.

[Laika]

It's funny how Varsho's defensive numbers in LF this year are so close to average. Probably just random.

 

But I am not sure he gets a big value boost by being a full time CF.

 

I think his LF numbers these year are nonsensically low but the same can be said for his CF numbers, in the other direction; randomly high. They cancel out.

 

His aggregate DRS in the OF is +27. His OAA is +10, his UZR/150 is +13.2.

 

I for one am certainly not expecting significant increases on those figures as a full time CF. We might see a minor bump though. His career UZR/150 in CF is +16.5

[Olerud363]

Of all the Outfielders discussed this off-season Daulton Varsho was probably near the bottom of the list. Sure left-handed power but no ability to get on base. Expect a lot of wild swings and frustrating at-bats.

 

Kinda shocked he cost that much. Tough to trade an Athletic Catcher with that much upside with the bat and keeping a fat Kirk. Diamondbacks did very well here.

 

OK. Kind of scouting based on body type.

 

Fangraphs - 2023 Kirk (290 pound slob) is equal to 2023 Moreno (Athletic 1st overall superstar prospect)

Fangraphs - 2023 Varsho (Mr., Popup) is equal to 2023 Moreno (Athletic 1st overall superstar prospect)

bref - 2023 Varsho (Mr., Popup) is equal to 2023 Moreno (Athletic 1st overall superstar prospect)

 

bref - 2023 Moreno is way better than Kirk

 

Super scouts - Moreno is worth 5 sWAR, Varsho 1 sWAR, Kirk -2 sWAR

 

(sWAR is scouting WAR)

[connorp]

lol. You think Laika is a nerd? As far as I know the guy doesn't know how to code and is way more in tune with scouting reports and how scouting is done than most anyone else here.

 

Varsho, Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez were all similar in their age 25 season. Out of the three Teoscar was the one who broke out, Grichuk flat-lined, and Varsho (thus far) has fallen apart as a hitter because his power has gone down.

 

Are you saying the super-scouts on the board knew that would happen? lol. I don't recall anybody accurately predicting that Hernandez was the one who would hit .280 with power for his 3 year prime. Super-scouts are good looking back, though maybe I'm wrong and the super-scouts who watch every game on MLB-TV knew that Varsho would take a step back as a hitter, and tried to warn us on this thread. I'll have to read it over.

 

Most of my posts are in good fun. I don’t have the animosity against other posters like some people seem to have. I guess Brownie is a bit of a douchebag, but that’s about it

[connorp]

Also, you can get guys like Kk to give you 2.5 war of defensive and passable bat for like $4-5/m per WAR. That’s not what we traded our top prospect for

[max silver]

It's funny how Varsho's defensive numbers in LF this year are so close to average. Probably just random.

 

But I am not sure he gets a big value boost by being a full time CF.

 

I think his LF numbers these year are nonsensically low but the same can be said for his CF numbers, in the other direction; randomly high. They cancel out.

 

His aggregate DRS in the OF is +27. His OAA is +10, his UZR/150 is +13.2.

 

I for one am certainly not expecting significant increases on those figures as a full time CF. We might see a minor bump though. His career UZR/150 in CF is +16.5

 

I recall Varsho mentioning how he found left field was the hardest outfield position for him to play based on the way the ball comes off of the bat. This seems to be corroborated with how his UZR/OAA numbers look pretty ordinary in left field compared to center and right field where he's graded as elite by both metrics.

 

I fully expect Varsho to receive a massive bump in defensive value by moving to center field full time. He's actually improved his center field metrics in 2023 compared to the already stellar numbers from 2022, with massive bumps to his DRS and UZR numbers and a repeat of the stellar OAA numbers as well. I see nothing that indicates he isn't already an elite defender at the position. He accumulated as many DRS and nearly as many OAA in center field as Kiermaier in only approximately half of the innings, if that doesn't give you confidence in Varsho's standing as an elite defender at the position I really don't know what would.

Edited September 21, 2023 by max silver

[Laika]

Oh he's definitely elite. It's just that his aggregate defensive value this year is already in the elite territory, with his +13.2 UZR/150.

 

He would get a positional adjustment bump. Something like +5 runs or half a win, vs. this season.

[Brownie19]

Also, you can get guys like Kk to give you 2.5 war of defensive and passable bat for like $4-5/m per WAR. That’s not what we traded our top prospect for

 

I'm not so sure this is true. Yes, we got that from KK this year, but CFers who can give you 2.5 WAR aren't often available on short terms deals. The only reason KK was is because he came with a ton of risk (injuries, decline, age, etc.). Who else are you signing to play CF? Adam Duvall?

 

Look at the cost to acquire guys like Harrison Bader, Trent Grisham, etc. Look at what Starlin Marte cost.

 

I don't think it's a good strategy to suggesting you can simply go sign a great defensive CF with an average bat for $4-5M per WAR like it's no big deal...

[max silver]

Oh he's definitely elite. It's just that his aggregate defensive value this year is already in the elite territory, with his +13.2 UZR/150.

 

He would get a positional adjustment bump. Something like +5 runs or half a win, vs. this season.

 

The positional bump alone won't be a massive change to his defensive value, but the accumulated value of his defensive contributions (at least FWAR wise) are likely going to see a massive bump. A large part of why his defensive FWAR is so low is due to the fact that Fangraphs uses Statcast OAA for their range factor, and Varsho has posted rather ordinary numbers in left field according to this metric. Shift him full time to center field and the range value is almost certain to receive a massive increase on top of the positional adjustment.

[L54]

I think Moreno was vastly overrated here because he was a “top 5” prospect

 

He was a top 5 prospect because of the high probability to be a 2-3 WAR player. Not because he is gonna go 30/50 like Corbin Carroll

[Jonn]

I think its bold to assume Varsho will even be playing everyday next year. Everyone is just penciling him into CF like Kiermaier couldn’t potentially return or they have another plan entirely. We don’t even know if Ross Atkins is going to be the GM. Varsho has been an absolute dumpster fire offensively and this team struggles to score runs. His spot should not be guaranteed at this point.

 

I would personally like to see them move on from him. Retain Kiermaier and address LF everyday. Add a 4th OF that can hit right handed pitching that can play for Kiermaier on occasion.

 

And don’t tell me Kiermaier doesn’t want to come back. The dude has the Canadian National Anthem in his spotify top 5 lol

[Brownie19]

I think its bold to assume Varsho will even be playing everyday next year. Everyone is just penciling him into CF like Kiermaier couldn’t potentially return or they have another plan entirely. We don’t even know if Ross Atkins is going to be the GM. Varsho has been an absolute dumpster fire offensively and this team struggles to score runs. His spot should not be guaranteed at this point.

 

I would personally like to see them move on from him. Retain Kiermaier and address LF everyday. Add a 4th OF that can hit right handed pitching that can play for Kiermaier on occasion.

 

And don’t tell me Kiermaier doesn’t want to come back. The dude has the Canadian National Anthem in his spotify top 5 lol

 

That all sounds great Jonn - but the likelihood of this happening is probably in the 10% range. You'd be selling low on Varsho and taking a huge risk on KK, who'll probably command a multi year deal, is incredibly injury prone and entering his age 34 season. I love KK, but your proposal just doesn't seem plausible. This team needs some stability in CF and Varsho projects to be a very solid CFer moving forward. What most are suggesting isn't bold at all - it's logical.

[max silver]

I think its bold to assume Varsho will even be playing everyday next year. Everyone is just penciling him into CF like Kiermaier couldn’t potentially return or they have another plan entirely. We don’t even know if Ross Atkins is going to be the GM. Varsho has been an absolute dumpster fire offensively and this team struggles to score runs. His spot should not be guaranteed at this point.

 

I would personally like to see them move on from him. Retain Kiermaier and address LF everyday. Add a 4th OF that can hit right handed pitching that can play for Kiermaier on occasion.

 

And don’t tell me Kiermaier doesn’t want to come back. The dude has the Canadian National Anthem in his spotify top 5 lol

 

Varsho in center field full time is almost certainly going to produce more overall wins above replacement in a full season given the fact that he doesn't tend to miss any games due to injury and/or load management. Varsho still has every opportunity to be better with the bat moving forward as he was largely a league average bat in his time with Arizona.

[John_Havok]

I recall Varsho mentioning how he found left field was the hardest outfield position for him to play based on the way the bat comes off of the ball.

 

Is this the new Savanna Bananas gag? Pitcher throws a bat and hitter hits it with a ball? Now that’s entertainment

[max silver]

Is this the new Savanna Bananas gag? Pitcher throws a bat and hitter hits it with a ball? Now that’s entertainment

 

That's certainly an interesting typo. I'm sure you know what I meant though.

[John_Havok]

That's certainly an interesting typo. I'm sure you know what I meant though.

 

Not a clue. I’m an insufferable pedantic fastidious perfectionist by day.

[Grant77]

I think Moreno was vastly overrated here because he was a “top 5” prospect

 

He was a top 5 prospect because of the high probability to be a 2-3 WAR player. Not because he is gonna go 30/50 like Corbin Carroll

 

Even the people who loved Moreno, like myself, find that he has met expectations with a 106 wRC+ and 4.1 bWAR as a rookie catcher. He's shown that he's elite defensively and there could be a lot more in the bat.

 

JT Realmuto has hit at the same level as Moreno (as a rookie) in a full two thirds of his 9 year career. People forget how valuable that is from a catcher, especially one that can run and throw out >40% of baserunners, even with the new rules.

 

I don't really even understand your comment. He's still a top 5 prospect from that class, even with the benefit of hindsight. He's met or maybe even exceeded expectations.

[max silver]

Even the people who loved Moreno, like myself, find that he has met expectations with a 106 wRC+ and 4.1 bWAR as a rookie catcher. He's shown that he's elite defensively and there could be a lot more in the bat.

 

JT Realmuto has hit at the same level as Moreno (as a rookie) in a full two thirds of his 9 year career. People forget how valuable that is from a catcher, especially one that can run and throw out >40% of baserunners, even with the new rules.

 

I don't really even understand your comment. He's still a top 5 prospect from that class, even with the benefit of hindsight. He's met or maybe even exceeded expectations.

 

The stellar BWAR value is largely dependant on Moreno being an elite game caller as over half of his DRS value comes from an adjusted catcher ERA stat. I'm having a really hard time believing that Moreno went from a below average game caller in 2022 to baseball's best game caller behind the plate in a single season.

[Grant77]

The stellar BWAR value is largely dependant on Moreno being an elite game caller as over half of his DRS value comes from an adjusted catcher ERA stat. I'm having a really hard time believing that Moreno went from a below average game caller in 2022 to baseball's best game caller behind the plate in a single season.

 

I can agree with that, but he's obviously improved to some extent. With advanced stats still being so unreliable for catcher defense, I find it best to balance them out and take the average. Even at 3 WAR, he's still performing well within expectations for a 'top 5 prospect'. I can't see how Arizona wouldn't be thrilled with his progression.

[L54]

Even the people who loved Moreno, like myself, find that he has met expectations with a 106 wRC+ and 4.1 bWAR as a rookie catcher. He's shown that he's elite defensively and there could be a lot more in the bat.

 

JT Realmuto has hit at the same level as Moreno (as a rookie) in a full two thirds of his 9 year career. People forget how valuable that is from a catcher, especially one that can run and throw out >40% of baserunners, even with the new rules.

 

I don't really even understand your comment. He's still a top 5 prospect from that class, even with the benefit of hindsight. He's met or maybe even exceeded expectations.

 

My comment is that Gabby Moreno and Corbin Carroll were in two different classes as prospects even though Moreno was once a top fiver

 

Atkins would’ve had his number blocked if he asked for Carroll for Moreno

 

Moreno has 1.7 fWAR and so does Varsho

 

I don’t think there is super star upside in the bat. Maybe the same chance there is super star upside in Varsho’s bat. Both players look like nice 2-3 WAR pieces who are excellent defenders up the middle. Kinda funny that they arrive at the same type of value in different ways

 

Of course Moreno is controlled for two extra years which isn’t nothing.

[L54]

Maybe Atkins had a chub for Varsho and was his #1 target. 5 WAR outfielder. Or maybe Moreno wasn’t as highly valued around the league as we thought. Rookie catcher is a tough fit

[Masterbather]

Can this board stop reminding me of this god-awful trade?

 

It's over, no point beating the dead and decomposed horse.

[L54]

I honestly never even think of Moreno

[G-Snarls]

Can this board stop reminding me of this god-awful trade?

 

It's over, no point beating the dead and decomposed horse.

 

Probably not

 

Someone seems to bring up the Marlins and Dickey trades every few weeks, a decade later.