Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[Laika]

 

 

There's absolutely no contest here. You'd be taking Varsho almost exclusively for his defense and speed and like JH said - that's historically not a great idea. Despite the 'solid' results this year, there simply isn't a lot in his bat to get excited about.

 

yeah Kirky's zone skills are elite elite elite and he has surprising pop in the bat

 

he's like a fat Altuve

 

i think he has some 25+ and maybe even 30+ HR seasons.

 

the best may be yet to come with Kirk!!!!!

[Captain_Obvious]

Edgar Martinez is another one. Started late. His first full year was very Kirkish in 1990. Became a monster in his 30s... though who knows how much we can trust the 90s. But still...

 

Just it feels to me guys who have Kirks contact rate and line drive power develop even further... like I said I could be totally wrong because I am forgetting the ones who didn't win batting titles.

 

It is not like we trying to get rid of Kirk. It is a very unique situation where a team has 3 catchers who are potentially all-stars. I do not ever remember a team being in this situation. And it is not common for a catcher to play other positions effectively. Jansen's value is likely to go up with more playing time. Moreno's value is likely to go up as well as he regains his strength from injury. Kirk seems to be the one for whom Toronto can get full value back in a trade.

[Carlos Danger]

 

 

There's absolutely no contest here. You'd be taking Varsho almost exclusively for his defense and speed and like JH said - that's historically not a great idea. Despite the 'solid' results this year, there simply isn't a lot in his bat to get excited about.

 

I think you need to look at a move like that from a Team approach vs player vs player.

 

I strongly believe, that as a Team, considering roster makeup (3 catchers, current OF etc) , run prevention etc, the Blue Jays are a better Team with Varsho vs Kirk.

 

The goal is to improve the Team, its not a H2H Fantasy league.

[Stangstag]

It is not like we trying to get rid of Kirk. It is a very unique situation where a team has 3 catchers who are potentially all-stars. I do not ever remember a team being in this situation. And it is not common for a catcher to play other positions effectively. Jansen's value is likely to go up with more playing time. Moreno's value is likely to go up as well as he regains his strength from injury. Kirk seems to be the one for whom Toronto can get full value back in a trade.

 

Yeah if Jansen or Moreno don’t exist, then trading Kirk isn’t even a conversation. Its a wealth of riches causing these discussions

[Brownie19]

I think you need to look at a move like that from a Team approach vs player vs player.

 

I strongly believe, that as a Team, considering roster makeup (3 catchers, current OF etc) , run prevention etc, the Blue Jays are a better Team with Varsho vs Kirk.

 

The goal is to improve the Team, its not a H2H Fantasy league.

 

You missed the point. The point made by JH was trading an elite hitter for an equal player who's primary value is derived from speed and defense is a bad idea. Some suggested that Varsho's bat is solid and with some tweeks there's room to get better. I'm pointing out that Varsho's statcast suggests there isn't a lot more in his bat and thus we're relying primarily on his speed/defense, which historically is a bad idea (especially since D/speed typically aren't worth as much as an elite bat).

 

There is better value out there than Varsho for Kirk IMO.

[Carlos Danger]

You missed the point. The point made by JH was trading an elite hitter for an equal player who's primary value is derived from speed and defense is a bad idea. Some suggested that Varsho's bat is solid and with some tweeks there's room to get better. I'm pointing out that Varsho's statcast suggests there isn't a lot more in his bat and thus we're relying primarily on his speed/defense, which historically is a bad idea (especially since D/speed typically aren't worth as much as an elite bat).

 

There is better value out there than Varsho for Kirk IMO.

 

A defense only type guy is someone you pinch hit for, or you sub in for a really good no defense hitter. If Varsho is on the team there is no need to PH for him and no need to sit him until a defensive replacement is needed.

 

With Varsho specifically, the Blue Jays can trade a catcher and still DH a catcher. The fear with two catchers of DHng one is what if the starting catcher gets hurt? With Varsho you still have three catchers on the Team and improve your CF defense which improves your overall OF D.

 

How many of the singles Kirk hit could have been stretched to two by Varsho. How many double plays would have not been completed with Varsho running vice Kirk. How many times would have Varsho gone 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home vs Kirk going station to station. How many times would Varsho been sent on sac fly and scored vs the amount of times they had to hold Kirk. 2nd to 3rd and 3rd to home.

 

Not all hits if not a HR are created equal….

[Brownie19]

A defense only type guy is someone you pinch hit for, or you sub in for a really good no defense hitter. If Varsho is on the team there is no need to PH for him and no need to sit him until a defensive replacement is needed.

 

With Varsho specifically, the Blue Jays can trade a catcher and still DH a catcher. The fear with two catchers of DHng one is what if the starting catcher gets hurt? With Varsho you still have three catchers on the Team and improve your CF defense which improves your overall OF D.

 

How many of the singles Kirk hit could have been stretched to two by Varsho. How many double plays would have not been completed with Varsho running vice Kirk. How many times would have Varsho gone 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home vs Kirk going station to station. How many times would Varsho been sent on sac fly and scored vs the amount of times they had to hold Kirk. 2nd to 3rd and 3rd to home.

 

Not all hits if not a HR are created equal….

 

I don't know how to respond to this gibberish. So I won't.

[Omar]

yeah Kirky's zone skills are elite elite elite and he has surprising pop in the bat

 

he's like a fat Altuve

 

i think he has some 25+ and maybe even 30+ HR seasons.

 

the best may be yet to come with Kirk!!!!!

 

Fat Bregman.

[Carlos Danger]

I don't know how to respond to this gibberish. So I won't.

 

If you are only going to look at percentile rankings through a straw you should play fantasy baseball. It is not the way to build a better real life MLB team.

 

Your deflection of my comments and inability to comprehend more then a stat page, shows ignorance of the big picture.

 

The Blue Jays need run prevention as much or more then they need an improvement in offense.

[Spanky99]

Valdez was sic... wow.... D showing up.

[Olerud363]

You think Kirk could have the power Martinez had? I can't see him hitting 35+ bombs in a season.

 

Altuve has developed pretty good power for a short guy.

 

Martinez only hit more than 30 homers once. And I'm not saying Kirk is going to be exactly like Martinez, I'm comparing him to a group of great hitters, Olerud, Mauer, Kruk and Martinez.

 

I'm saying his best seasons might end up like their best seasons, and there is only one 30+ homer season among their careers.

 

Flaw in my argument is my comparison group is guys comparable to Kirk first couple of years, who I remember, because they turned out to be awesome, and I'm not including the guys who didn't become memorable.

[Olerud363]

Altuve has developed pretty good power for a short guy.

 

Martinez only hit more than 30 homers once. And I'm not saying Kirk is going to be exactly like Martinez, I'm comparing him to a group of great hitters, Olerud, Mauer, Kruk and Martinez.

 

I'm saying his best seasons might end up like their best seasons, and there is only one 30+ homer season among their careers.

 

Flaw in my argument is my comparison group is guys comparable to Kirk first couple of years, who I remember, because they turned out to be awesome, and I'm not including the guys who didn't become memorable.

 

Fun thought experiment. Would you trade Colby Rasmus after his 23 season (4 WAR) for Joe Mauer after his age 22 season (.290 .411 slugging, 3.4 WAR). Well no, because you know how it turned out.

 

But at the time, try to pretend you don't know how it would turn out, and you have a need for a left handed center fielder, and have a catcher with good bat to ball skills but not great power. The center fielder has more WAR.

 

Would you make the trade using the information available at the time? I doubt anyone would, even if they had other catchers (they'd trade the other catchers) because of Mauer;s scouting reports and pedigree.

 

So the idea of trading Kirk is based on scouting, which may be valid, and some theory that an obese little guy who hit great in the minors won't develop after 23.

[Jimcanuck]

Nah, the main reason for trading Kirk in lieu or Jansen or Moreno is it would be more of a sell high than trading one of the other two. But it would be contingent on an agreement to extend Jansen. If no extension agreement, trade Jansen.

[Olerud363]

Nah, the main reason for trading Kirk in lieu or Jansen or Moreno is it would be more of a sell high than trading one of the other two. But it would be contingent on an agreement to extend Jansen. If no extension agreement, trade Jansen.

 

But Jansen is the one who was way above his career norms and minor league stats

 

Kirk -

career .278 .362 .426

2022 .285 .372 .415

minors - .310 .406 .505

 

Jansen -

career .223 .307 .423

2022 - .260 .339 .507

minors - .269 .366 .412

 

Obesity induced illusion. Kirk didn't have an amazing nor a terrible season given career averages and milb numbers. Just met expectation. People just believe he will not develop further and maybe regress because of obesity.

[max silver]

A defense only type guy is someone you pinch hit for, or you sub in for a really good no defense hitter. If Varsho is on the team there is no need to PH for him and no need to sit him until a defensive replacement is needed.

 

With Varsho specifically, the Blue Jays can trade a catcher and still DH a catcher. The fear with two catchers of DHng one is what if the starting catcher gets hurt? With Varsho you still have three catchers on the Team and improve your CF defense which improves your overall OF D.

 

How many of the singles Kirk hit could have been stretched to two by Varsho. How many double plays would have not been completed with Varsho running vice Kirk. How many times would have Varsho gone 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home vs Kirk going station to station. How many times would Varsho been sent on sac fly and scored vs the amount of times they had to hold Kirk. 2nd to 3rd and 3rd to home.

 

Not all hits if not a HR are created equal….

 

Kirk makes up for the difference in baserunning by getting on base in the first place at a dramatically higher clip than Varsho. Kirk made his way on base at a .372 OBP vs .302 for Varsho. While the difference in baserunning value for the two is rather stark, with a 10.4 run difference between the two, Kirk outproduced Varsho by 12 WRAA. The overall offensive value between the two tips slightly in favor of Kirk in this comparison.

[Captain_Obvious]

But Jansen is the one who was way above his career norms and minor league stats

 

Kirk -

career .278 .362 .426

2022 .285 .372 .415

minors - .310 .406 .505

 

Jansen -

career .223 .307 .423

2022 - .260 .339 .507

minors - .269 .366 .412

 

Obesity induced illusion. Kirk didn't have an amazing nor a terrible season given career averages and milb numbers. Just met expectation. People just believe he will not develop further and maybe regress because of obesity.

 

Jansen updated his glasses in May 2021. He might have started using some form of JARVIS because he turned into a monster since then. A similar thing happened to him in the minors before his breakout. He was a meh prospect, then started wearing glasses, then immediately turned into a top 50 prospect.

 

Kirk could improve, but I do not think there are many areas where there is room for improvement. I don't think he will regress any time soon though.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Captain_Obvious

[John_Havok]

My kingdom for people to have a better understanding of the meanings of regress and retrogress.....

[Olerud363]

Jansen updated his glasses in May 2021. He might have started some form of JARVIS because he turned into a monster since then. A similar thing happened to him in the minors before his breakout. He was a meh prospect, then started wearing glasses, then immediately turned into a top 50 prospect.

 

Kirk could improve, but I do not think there are many areas where there is room for improvement. I don't think he will regress any time soon though.

 

Many hitters similar to Kirk add power and even average as they peak. What is the average outcome for ....

 

23 year old

.280 hitter, mid-level power

more walks then ks

.310 .410 .500 minor leauger?

 

According to baseball reference the most similar hitter is Wander Franco, most similar through age 23 is Ernie Banks?

 

Ernie Banks. Like what f***? Wasn't that some power hitter from the 50s. Wander Franco greatest prospect ever (other than Vlad)?

 

Wander Franco as a minor league hitter is like Kirk except younger (which is important) and he is like Kirk as a major league hitter (.280).

 

Has Wander peaked? Will Wander not improve? If Wander will improve but Kirk won't why? Because Wander is younger? (fair).

 

But do 23 year olds not improve too? This still seems obesity based.

 

FYI. Ernie Banks wasn't a power hitter yet, or at least not a bit time one, so at 23 was sort of like Kirk, then the power exploded at 24

[Jimcanuck]

Many hitters similar to Kirk add power and even average as they peak. What is the average outcome for ....

 

23 year old

.280 hitter, mid-level power

more walks then ks

.310 .410 .500 minor leauger?

 

According to baseball reference the most similar hitter is Wander Franco, most similar through age 23 is Ernie Banks?

 

Ernie Banks. Like what f***? Wasn't that some power hitter from the 50s. Wander Franco greatest prospect ever (other than Vlad)?

 

Wander Franco as a minor league hitter is like Kirk except younger (which is important) and he is like Kirk as a major league hitter (.280).

 

Has Wander peaked? Will Wander not improve? If Wander will improve but Kirk won't why? Because Wander is younger? (fair).

 

But do 23 year olds not improve too? This still seems obesity based.

 

FYI. Ernie Banks wasn't a power hitter yet, or at least not a bit time one, so at 23 was sort of like Kirk, then the power exploded at 24

 

Yes, Kirk's peak will be constrained by his fatness.

[Terminator]

Yes, Kirk's peak will be constrained by his fatness.

 

^Intolerant and bigoted fat shamer

[Jimcanuck]

< says it as it is without wokeness

[Carlos Danger]

Kirk makes up for the difference in baserunning by getting on base in the first place at a dramatically higher clip than Varsho. Kirk made his way on base at a .372 OBP vs .302 for Varsho. While the difference in baserunning value for the two is rather stark, with a 10.4 run difference between the two, Kirk outproduced Varsho by 12 WRAA. The overall offensive value between the two tips slightly in favor of Kirk in this comparison.

 

Good post!

 

I don't disagree at all that Kirk is the superior overall offensive player. My point is and has been, that Varsho's offense is good enough, coupled with his plus D, that in totality, Varsho would make the TEAM better overall then Kirk does. Hence IF IF IF , Arizona was willing to trade Varsho, for Kirk, which I don't think they would do (AZ). I would do that deal without much hesitation to be honest.

[Olerud363]

Yes, Kirk's peak will be constrained by his fatness.

 

I'm not sure I agree with you, but at least someone has point blank brought up the real issue

You need 2 groups

 

Group 1 - .280ish hitters between 22-24 with power, walk and k rates similar to Kirk -

Group 2 - Obese hitters who were successful between 22-24 of any skill set.

 

Use group 1 to figure out the potential for a normal shaped hitter with Kirk's stats. Use group 2 to figure out how obesity will effect his development.

[John_Havok]

Yes, Kirk's peak will be constrained by his fatness.

 

Bowling balls dont really have peaks, just rounded spots at higher elevation.

[Terminator]

Good post!

 

I don't disagree at all that Kirk is the superior overall offensive player. My point is and has been, that Varsho's offense is good enough, coupled with his plus D, that in totality, Varsho would make the TEAM better overall then Kirk does. Hence IF IF IF , Arizona was willing to trade Varsho, for Kirk, which I don't think they would do (AZ). I would do that deal without much hesitation to be honest.

 

Yeah we have possibly 3 Top 10 Catchers on the roster all at once.

 

Trading one to fill a need, even if the return is a worse player, is going to improve the team. The return just needs to be within the same vicinity as the Catcher we are shipping out IMO. Seeing as Jansen only has 2 years of control, he would be my choice to trade because it's only 2 years. Even if he hits 4 WAR each of the next two years it won't really sting us THAT bad with Kirk and Moreno around.

 

So all that said, Varsho would be close enough for Kirk IMO. I don't think the D-Bags would be that interested though.

[Olerud363]

Yeah we have possibly 3 Top 10 Catchers on the roster all at once.

 

Trading one to fill a need, even if the return is a worse player, is going to improve the team. The return just needs to be within the same vicinity as the Catcher we are shipping out IMO. Seeing as Jansen only has 2 years of control, he would be my choice to trade because it's only 2 years. Even if he hits 4 WAR each of the next two years it won't really sting us THAT bad with Kirk and Moreno around.

 

So all that said, Varsho would be close enough for Kirk IMO. I don't think the D-Bags would be that interested though.

 

If they performed at last years paces, and the defensive stats were correct, then Varsho is better then Kirk.

 

One non-significant point is that Kirk DHd 50 games, so his defensive value on fangraphs would have been reduced by that. I think it would have been reduced 5 runs.

 

So Kirk is an 9 on fangraphs, but that is actually a 14 in 78 catching games + -5 in 50 DH games. So Kirk catching 130 games could be a very good defensive player (at least according to fangraphs).

 

Now whether a bowling ball and catch 130 games is a good question, and once again comes back to obesity.

[Jimcanuck]

Varsho is more marketable than Kirk, so there's that too

[The Cats Ass]

Hopefully Kirk tries to be serious about his health. If not he'll no doubt downward spiral like Pablo Sandoval.

[keggy]

My understanding is that Kirk signed as a no-name local prospect and probably wasn't exposed to much professional conditioning until he reached the big leagues. He allegedly lost some weight between 2021/22.

 

If Kirk is willing and able to dedicate himself to weight loss during the offseasons, this changes his valuation significantly. Specifically his elite contact ability means that any improvements in his speed will add to his BABIP. He led the team in infield hits running like an elephant. Imagine if he were even a below average runner.

 

If he doesn't have the makeup or genetics to lose weight, I think he'll be a good player until he inevitably breaks down. That's for the front office to decide on.

[Terminator]

Hopefully Kirk tries to be serious about his health. If not he'll no doubt downward spiral like Pablo Sandoval.

 

Yeah Pablo Sandoval, the fat ass who put up 3.2 WAR in his Age 27 as a 3B. The same age we have Kirk controlled through.