Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[Brownie19]

Also Mayza is fine as a Loogy

 

Isn't the obvious issue here that you can't have LOOGY's like we used to? Mayza faced 115 RHB this year (v. only 78 LHB) and RHB hit .291 (.162 v. LHB). Mayza isn't a major issue, but ideally, he'd be pushed down the pecking order a few notches. Adding a Taylor Rogers + the emergence of Pearson as an elite setup guy would give this pen a whole new identity.

[Jimcanuck]

Planning a bullpen is kinda a fool's errand no? So much volatility.

 

I'd rather the Jays try and grab some electric prospect RP arms rather than sign or trade for "established" RP types that are just as likely to s*** the bed as not.

[Carlos Danger]

Planning a bullpen is kinda a fool's errand no? So much volatility.

 

I'd rather the Jays try and grab some electric prospect RP arms rather than sign or trade for "established" RP types that are just as likely to s*** the bed as not.

 

None of the Astros pen is homegrown, apart from one or two of the starters that have moved to the pen.

 

Our pen in the 90’s was a large part homegrown and had depth! We had Henke, Ward and Wells at one point just to name three. All capable of closing. Then in 93, Wardo and Wells.

 

Regardless how you do it, when you are close, like we are, with a limited window, and following the Pat Gillick rule, you need to make those moves to put you over the top. We can’t just leave the pen until last anymore and figure we will find soley serviceable guys to get us by

[jaysblue]

None of the Astros pen is homegrown, apart from one or two of the starters that have moved to the pen.

 

Our pen in the 90’s was a large part homegrown and had depth! We had Henke, Ward and Wells at one point just to name three. All capable of closing. Then in 93, Wardo and Wells.

 

Regardless how you do it, when you are close, like we are, with a limited window, and following the Pat Gillick rule, you need to make those moves to put you over the top. We can’t just leave the pen until last anymore and figure we will find soley serviceable guys to get us by

 

You said it perfect! Same applies to the bench!

[Jimcanuck]

None of the Astros pen is homegrown, apart from one or two of the starters that have moved to the pen.

 

Our pen in the 90’s was a large part homegrown and had depth! We had Henke, Ward and Wells at one point just to name three. All capable of closing. Then in 93, Wardo and Wells.

 

Regardless how you do it, when you are close, like we are, with a limited window, and following the Pat Gillick rule, you need to make those moves to put you over the top. We can’t just leave the pen until last anymore and figure we will find soley serviceable guys to get us by

 

Disagree on the limited window bit, expending assets to fit an arbitrary contender window is never right

 

Also, the RP volatility bit is the biggest part of my post, that you didn't respond to

Edited October 25, 2022 by Jimcanuck

[jaysblue]

Isn't the obvious issue here that you can't have LOOGY's like we used to? Mayza faced 115 RHB this year (v. only 78 LHB) and RHB hit .291 (.162 v. LHB). Mayza isn't a major issue, but ideally, he'd be pushed down the pecking order a few notches. Adding a Taylor Rogers + the emergence of Pearson as an elite setup guy would give this pen a whole new identity.

 

Rogers would be a perfect fit IMO. Has closing experience and can be used as a bridge to Romano. Last two seasons he posted a 13.17 and 11.75 K/9. I actually like him better than Matt Moore given his lower BB/9 and experience. He would be a huge upgrade over Mayza and in the late innings. Mayza, Bass, Garcia, Cimber etc, can all be pushed down the pecking order which is fine. Plus if one of Pearson or Merryweather emerge into an elite setup guy with high K rates, this bullpen will be fine!

[Captain_Obvious]

I don't think we need to do anything that big.

 

-I think my Jansen to the Astros for Urquidy and a near elite RP is a good trade. Astros might make out on the WAR side of it but with capable replacements for Jansen's 2 years of control we get a lot better as well.

-Then sign the best SP we can which will fit into the budget, could be anyone from Chris Bassitt on the high end to Kyle Gibson on the low end depending on FA prices. Kikuchi and White both prepare to be SPs entering ST but if all goes according to plan they move to the bullpen to start.

-Then trade Richards, Biggio, anyone with 40 man concerns to try and grab that 4th OF.

-Also approach Vlad and Bo on extensions. I think it's a good year to do this with Vlad especially.

 

Then we can see how things are at the deadline. If we want to add a frontline starter or elite reliever we can look into it then.

 

The Jansen trade is not even close. The fact that we have 3 top 10 catchers does not mean we trade any of them at a discount. The point of trading a C is to reallocate their full value to another position. If we are getting reduced value back for them, might as well keep them and play them as DH or other positions. Jansen and Kirk at DH would still be very useful although it is not ideal.

[Jimcanuck]

The Jansen trade is not even close. The fact that we have 3 top 10 catchers does not mean we trade any of them at a discount. The point of trading a C is to reallocate their full value to another position. If we are getting reduced value back for them, might as well keep them and play them as DH or other positions. Jansen and Kirk at DH would still be very useful although it is not ideal.

 

It's very far from ideal. You want to keep the DH position open, for many reasons.

 

One of the three C need to be moved, without question. I trust Shatkins to find a fair return.

[jaysblue]

The Jansen trade is not even close. The fact that we have 3 top 10 catchers does not mean we trade any of them at a discount. The point of trading a C is to reallocate their full value to another position. If we are getting reduced value back for them, might as well keep them and play them as DH or other positions. Jansen and Kirk at DH would still be very useful although it is not ideal.

 

Would prefer Christian Javier or Framber Valdez over Urquidy though doubt the Astros move them for Jansen.

 

If Jansen stays healthy, he can definitely put together a 4 WAR season so I understand your reasoning. You gotta hope Urquidy takes a step forward and becomes a 2-3 WAR pitcher. If you get a high end young reliever with some control like Bryan Abreu, I think you have to consider it.

[Captain_Obvious]

It's very far from ideal. You want to keep the DH position open, for many reasons.

 

One of the three C need to be moved, without question. I trust Shatkins to find a fair return.

 

A trade with fair return is definitely the ideal scenario. But if there is no fair trade for whatever reason, rotating the best offensive players you have through DH spot is not the end of the world. I am pretty sure Jansen would be fine at 1B occasionally. Moneyball says so.

[jaysblue]

Rotation:

 

Gausman

Manoah

Berrios

Urquidy

Free agent (one of Kyle Gibson, Corey Kluber, Jose Quintana, Ross Stripling, Andrew Heaney, Chris Bassitt)

 

That's a solid rotation if the Jays can add one of those FA starters along with guys like White/Kikuchi/Tiedemann as depth.

 

Bullpen:

 

Jordan Romano

Taylor Rogers (sign as a FA)

Bryan Abreu

Anthony Bass

Yimi Garcia

Tim Mayza

Adam Cimber

Nate Pearson

etc.

 

That bullpen is vastly improved with Abreu and if the Jays signed Rogers. Two high K arms who both can post 1.5-2 WAR seasons.

 

Overall, these moves won't break the bank and greatly improve the roster. Kirk/Moreno are fine as a catching tandem and I'm sure the Jays could go after a left-handed bat who could DH and play OF occasionally (one of Michael Brantley, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Andrew Benintendi, or Joey Gallo would be nice adds).

[Laika]

Call me crazy but I’m not even sure the Astros would move Bryan Abreu alone for Jansen.

 

Abreu plus Urquidy would be a strong return.

[Captain_Obvious]

Would prefer Christian Javier or Framber Valdez over Urquidy though doubt the Astros move them for Jansen.

 

If Jansen stays healthy, he can definitely put together a 4 WAR season so I understand your reasoning. You gotta hope Urquidy takes a step forward and becomes a 2-3 WAR pitcher. If you get a high end young reliever with some control like Bryan Abreu, I think you have to consider it.

 

I know it does not work exactly like this, but extrapolating Jansen's production over 500 PA results in a 5+ WAR player. This is similar to his production rate in 2021 after he fixed his glasses in May. He was actually getting better with time as he was further removed from injuries. I am betting he increases his value significantly with normal playing time in the first half of 2023.

[Captain_Obvious]

Call me crazy but I’m not even sure the Astros would move Bryan Abreu alone for Jansen.

 

Abreu plus Urquidy would be a strong return.

 

Trading a 140+ wRC+ C for a good reliever is nuts.

[jaysblue]

Call me crazy but I’m not even sure the Astros would move Bryan Abreu alone for Jansen.

 

Abreu plus Urquidy would be a strong return.

 

I would definitely be happy if that was the return but yeah you make a good point about the Astros being hesitant on moving Abreu. He's only 25 and likely will move up the bullpen pecking order since their other top BP arms are all over 30. They probably value him more than Urquidy.

[Laika]

Trading a 140+ wRC+ C for a good reliever is nuts.

 

Go find some Astros fans and see what they think of the trade idea

[connorp]

Trading a 140+ wRC+ C for a good reliever is nuts.

 

There’s moves you make without a couple regular season wins in mind. Thought Captain Obvious would be all over that

[Captain_Obvious]

Go find some Astros fans and see what they think of the trade idea

 

As good as Abreu is, they would be crazy to reject 2 years of a 4+ war catcher for 5 years of 1.2 war reliever. Jansen's stat cast metrics are elite as well. He hits the ball as hard as Kirk with much better barrel%. He is an average base runner as well.

[Captain_Obvious]

There’s moves you make without a couple regular season wins in mind. Thought Captain Obvious would be all over that

 

Jansen is the best post season performer as well

[Jimcanuck]

One of the C gets moved, the return priority is SP, CF, .......... RP.

 

Again, RP are highly volatile. It's just as probable Abreu shits the bed in 2023 as not.

 

Phils have a middling BP, look where they are.

[connorp]

One of the C gets moved, the return priority is SP, CF, .......... RP.

 

Again, RP are highly volatile. It's just as probable Abreu shits the bed in 2023 as not.

 

Phils have a middling BP, look where they are.

 

Jays season has primarily ended 3 seasons in a row due to BP. Any of the other bigger mlb teams would probably address it aggressively after #2.

[jaysblue]

One of the C gets moved, the return priority is SP, CF, .......... RP.

 

Again, RP are highly volatile. It's just as probable Abreu shits the bed in 2023 as not.

 

Phils have a middling BP, look where they are.

 

Yeah I would worry Abreu turns into a Sergio Santos which is definitely possible. I'm perfectly fine with acquiring him, though he would have to be paired with one their SPs like Urquidy. Though if the Astros value Abreu pretty high which I bet they do and probably value him even higher than Urquidy, likely doesn't happen even if it's a 1 for 1 swap.

[Ehjays]

I don't think we need to do anything that big.

 

-I think my Jansen to the Astros for Urquidy and a near elite RP is a good trade. Astros might make out on the WAR side of it but with capable replacements for Jansen's 2 years of control we get a lot better as well.

-Then sign the best SP we can which will fit into the budget, could be anyone from Chris Bassitt on the high end to Kyle Gibson on the low end depending on FA prices. Kikuchi and White both prepare to be SPs entering ST but if all goes according to plan they move to the bullpen to start.

-Then trade Richards, Biggio, anyone with 40 man concerns to try and grab that 4th OF.

-Also approach Vlad and Bo on extensions. I think it's a good year to do this with Vlad especially.

 

Then we can see how things are at the deadline. If we want to add a frontline starter or elite reliever we can look into it then.

 

Not sure what Astros needs are, but you may get the biggest return for Biggio from them, if not for his upside but PR would be nice as well. Now, you increase your return value for Jansen by adding Biggio..

[jaysblue]

Go find some Astros fans and see what they think of the trade idea

 

If you were the GM of the Jays and the Astros agreed to send Abreu for Jansen, would you pull the trigger? Curious. It's a tough one.

[Laika]

If you were the GM of the Jays and the Astros agreed to send Abreu for Jansen, would you pull the trigger? Curious. It's a tough one.

 

For just Abreu? No it’s not quite enough.

[jaysblue]

For just Abreu? No it’s not quite enough.

 

Yeah I don't think so either. Prefer to have him paired with a back-end SP like Urquidy.

[Laika]

As good as Abreu is, they would be crazy to reject 2 years of a 4+ war catcher for 5 years of 1.2 war reliever. Jansen's stat cast metrics are elite as well. He hits the ball as hard as Kirk with much better barrel%. He is an average base runner as well.

 

Let’s be objective here.

 

I love Jansen but he has literally never been a 4 WAR catcher. I don’t think he’s even been a 3 WAR catcher. He’s played like one in spurts and in between injuries over the last couple of years… but those injuries did happen.

 

He’s a really good catcher but other teams would have injury risk questions and skills reliability questions since he’s a one trick pony on offense

[Stangstag]

Let’s be objective here.

 

I love Jansen but he has literally never been a 4 WAR catcher. I don’t think he’s even been a 3 WAR catcher. He’s played like one in spurts and in between injuries over the last couple of years… but those injuries did happen.

 

He’s a really good catcher but other teams would have injury risk questions and skills reliability questions since he’s a one trick pony on offense

 

2021 + 2022 stats combined = 142 games played and 4 WAR.

 

He’s a 4 WAR catcher

[Laika]

2021 + 2022 stats combined = 142 games played and 4 WAR.

 

He’s a 4 WAR catcher

 

That’s 2 war per baseball season dude

[Stangstag]

That’s 2 war per baseball season dude

 

Its 1 season worth of games for a catcher. Maybe 130ish games is more fair.

 

Injury concerns, yes. But if he remains healthy he’s roughly a 4 WAR player