Blue Jays (Bieber) vs Rays (Seymour): 08/20/26, 1:10 PM

[Jays24]

2 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

Bruuuhhhh

Soorrrryy for me and 99% of people thinking the Jays would not beat Tampa at the trop lol. 

[Jays24]

Just remember who was on Team Bieber when most wanted him shipped out for a bag of chips. 

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, SeranthonySantander said:

First thing they teach in t ball is never get out at home.  Ever 

Ok?? This is MLB sir, that rule doesn’t make any sense

[SeranthonySantander]

8 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Ok?? This is MLB sir, that rule doesn’t make any sense

So do get out at home?  That seems like a good way to lose.

[Stangstag]

18 minutes ago, SeranthonySantander said:

So do get out at home?  That seems like a good way to lose.

You’re basically saying never try to score if the play might be close. That’s dumb

[SeranthonySantander]

21 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

You’re basically saying never try to score if the play might be close. That’s dumb

It’s not dumb 

[John_Havok]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

And burn this stadium to the ground btw. Most minor league stadiums are better than this. 

They just rebuilt it. Literally. Rebuilt a broken dump into a fixed dump.

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

Soorrrryy for me and 99% of people thinking the Jays would not beat Tampa at the trop lol. 

I was in that boat too. I figured 1 of 3 at the trop and 2 of 3 in Yankee Stadium was the best case scenario. 

Now, as long as they win 1 in the Bronx they still go 3-3 at worst. Nice spot to be in. 

But.... f*** the Yankees, take the series there too! Vlad comes back and hits 5 HRs now that he's had some sense knocked into his cement head and the screw that was loose has been tightened. 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Man I'd love to see Bieber extended. 

Healthy now, rust is shaken off and he's starting to cook again.

[John_Havok]

3 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Man I'd love to see Bieber extended. 

Healthy now, rust is shaken off and he's starting to cook again.

I think he'll be qualified simply because its probably the last year teams will be able to do it. 

He will certainly want to test FA and try to squeeze every cent he can out of some team somewhere. 

Alot depends on how lengthy the lockout will be

[G-Snarls]

24 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Man I'd love to see Bieber extended. 

Healthy now, rust is shaken off and he's starting to cook again.

Same.  And decent chance too I think. 

1. He seems to like it here 

2. We have exclusive negotiating rights for a bit after the season 

3. We can qualify him 

4. Guaranteed Atkins wants to 

5. We need starters!

6. Springer Gausman Hoffman off the books 

[Masterbather]

14 minutes ago, G-Snarls said:

Same.  And decent chance too I think. 

1. He seems to like it here 

2. We have exclusive negotiating rights for a bit after the season 

3. We can qualify him 

4. Guaranteed Atkins wants to 

5. We need starters!

6. Springer Gausman Hoffman off the books 

I wonder how the vibes will suddenly change if he gives up six runs in two innings in his next start😂

Love the way he's been pitching, it's important that he continues to excel, but there's a long way to go yet. Lots of things can change from now until the end of the season, whenever that is. 

How we feel about many guys today might be very different from how we feel by the end of the season.

 

[G-Snarls]

Vladdy 2 walks and an RBI double in his rehab game today 

[james jones]

Bieber's savant page does look terrible, that's worrying.

If the Jays can bring him back for a short term deal I'm fine though...

[SeranthonySantander]

Vlad is back.  Getting him back is like the trade deadline acquisition we never had.  Even if he is a true 750 OPS ceiling player that should be enough to get us through the AL championship, then just hope he gets hot. 10 Home run, 50 rbi, 250 hitter.  350 OBP and 400 SLG.  Good defender.  That is worth the 500m if he can sustain that until 35.  Then we rebuild and hope he provides enough advice to the young guys from 35-39 to make that 35m a year palatable, like a glorified bench coach basically.

[Brownie19]

16 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Just remember who was on Team Bieber when most wanted him shipped out for a bag of chips. 

Kudos - although I think most felt this was a possibility. You did mention it more than once though and this has been almost a perfect outcome so far.  If he's fully healthy and has found his slider, and finishes the season strong (hopefully into the playoffs) than he's a probably a good bet to be qualified and/or extended. He may want a 1 year pillow offer to rebuild value and prove he's healthy. If he likes it here 1 year $23M seems like a good pillow - and he would help fill a hole.  I wonder what the best offer was for him. 

[glory]

Bieber s***ing the bed against the Nats before the deadline might end up being a blessing if he’s back to being this effective. I didn’t think he was going to be a QO candidate with the way he was looking earlier but he just might if he keeps this up.

Winning 2/3 at the Trop, which probably should have been a sweep, is a good sign. Just get through this weekend and the schedule eases up big time.

[Laika]

Why the f*** are you guys talking about qualifying Shane Bieber hahahahahahahahaha

He has bad numbers and bad stuff, just not a combination that gets qualified or that you even want to necessarily commit $23M to 

If they have $20M and want a single SP they should just call Gausman 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Laika said:

Why the f*** are you guys talking about qualifying Shane Bieber hahahahahahahahaha

He has bad numbers and bad stuff, just not a combination that gets qualified or that you even want to necessarily commit $23M to 

If they have $20M and want a single SP they should just call Gausman 

What I like is you don't have to commit for 3+ years.  Gausman on a 1 year deal would be perfect.  Giving him a 3 year deal comes with a lot more risk.

The talk of a qualifying offer is also based on Bieber pitching strong down the stretch and potentially into the playoffs for us.  Nobody is suggesting he's a lock to get one on August 21st. 

The thought was - instead of giving him away for a bag of chips at the deadline, keep him and if he knocks of the rust and pitches great down the stretch, he could help us go on an improbable run for the playoffs and becomes a QO candidate.  So far so good IMO.

[Governator]

I always think without a normal Spring Training and offseason routine a player is going to take time to strengthen up and be in midseason form (if they ever get there).  It took him about 6 weeks to get to where he is now (Pitchers have 7 weeks in ST). I would absolutely consider giving him a QO if he finishes strong.

[Olerud363.354]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

Why the f*** are you guys talking about qualifying Shane Bieber hahahahahahahahaha

It's more like if he finishes 8-2 3.90 ERA 3-0 in playoffs - 23 million here you go

If he gives up 6 runs next outing and our playoff dreams end because the other 6 teams win that night... no 23 million for you (we are fickle).

We don't use these fancy stats.  We talk to the common people, check the box scores, check the time tested stuff like ERA, wins and playoffs.   

If Beiber does good in those categories we will give him anything he wants, 

If Bieber doesn't do good in those categories we will disown him and hope he ends up as a Chick-filet (Sundays off) chicken flipper. 

[Olerud363.354]

3 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

We don't use these fancy stats.  We talk to the common people, check the box scores, check the time tested stuff like ERA, wins and playoffs. 

We don;t discredit Laika and the other smart guys.  They might be on to something.  At the same time we follow the games on sportsnet and see what happens.  If Laika is right our playoff dreams will end, because Bieber isn't that good and won't be 7 innings 2 runs 0 walks 5 ks too much ... instead it would be implosions on the sportsnet, that will make us sad and angry. 

[jaysblue]

12 hours ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Man I'd love to see Bieber extended. 

Healthy now, rust is shaken off and he's starting to cook again.

I think you could probably qualify him again, or just bring him back on a one-year deal for a little less.

At this point, I think he’s probably past the stage where he’s going to command a big contract or multiple guaranteed years. He’s already 31 and there are legitimate injury/durability concerns. If he can stay healthy in 2027, make 25–30 starts and put up solid numbers, then he could potentially parlay that into a three-year deal next offseason.

[jaysblue]

12 hours ago, John_Havok said:

I think he'll be qualified simply because its probably the last year teams will be able to do it. 

He will certainly want to test FA and try to squeeze every cent he can out of some team somewhere. 

Alot depends on how lengthy the lockout will be

I don’t think he even tests free agency if he’s given the QO. I think he takes it regardless of how he finishes the season. At this point, I just don’t see any team giving him a multi-year deal given his age and durability concerns.

Ideally, Atkins could bring Bieber back for a little less than the QO, something like $12–15M plus incentives on a one-year deal. But if he finishes the season strong, I’d have no problem giving him the QO and hoping he accepts it. If he’s healthy, he could still be a very solid mid-rotation arm for us, with the upside to be a bit more than that.

[jaysblue]

3 hours ago, Laika said:

If they have $20M and want a single SP they should just call Gausman 

No problem with this either if Gausman is open to coming back on a one-year deal. The question is whether another team would be willing to offer him two or even three years or if he plans on retirement. He’s still on pace to finish somewhere in the 3–4 WAR range this season, so there should be interest. If the Jays can keep the term short, though, I’d definitely be open to bringing him back over Bieber. 

[max silver]

4 hours ago, Laika said:

Why the f*** are you guys talking about qualifying Shane Bieber hahahahahahahahaha

He has bad numbers and bad stuff, just not a combination that gets qualified or that you even want to necessarily commit $23M to 

If they have $20M and want a single SP they should just call Gausman 

Yeah that's crazy talk for fans to be interested in retaining a pitcher who has allowed 1 earned run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. 

[Laika]

Gentlemen, he has an xERA and FIP over five. 

0.2 fWAR in 11 starts. 

89 Stuff+ 

He's a performance risk AND a massive injury risk 

There is no legit reason to QO that. You let him walk and try to do better in FA. Plenty of fish in the sea. 

Dustin May and Nick Martinez signed for like $12M last year. 

Or you offer him $14M or whatever on a pillow deal as soon as the season is over. His free agent viability will be very similar to last offseason except he's one hear older and will be seen as somehow even less reliable. Even if he is solid from now until October.

[Terminator]

Bieber is kind of cooked.

There was some hope that he could return to form, but that ship is sailing.

It’s important to remember that his TJS masked a decline that was already happening before the injury. Now it’s been almost 2.5 years since the surgery and he still hasn’t gotten back to where he was. At this point, it’s getting pretty hard to see that happening.

Look at it this way: he took the $16M player option last year, and since then he’s had an even worse season with even more injury and reliability concerns piled on. He’s another year removed from TJS and still hasn’t gotten back to form. Even his projections are pretty mid at this point and we couldn't even trade him for a sack of marbles at the deadline.

If you sign him, can you even reasonably expect him to get through spring training healthy, take the ball every fifth day, and give you 150+ innings? Hell no. And if you’re paying a starter $22M, you should at least have some confidence that he can do that.

 

 

 

[hanton]

90% catch probability, Lukes broke Statcast.  Apparently a known issue for plays like this.  What's weird is it assigned a 5% catch probability on Palacios' easy line out to Lukes.

https://sporty-clips.mlb.com/b0d3azNfWGw0TUFRPT1fVXdaVFhGTlNWZ0FBV2xJQ1h3QUhDQVVFQUFNRlZnSUFWMUZVQUZFRkFnY0FVd2RW.mp4

 

 

[hanton]

...I don't even get how it can't do the math, they have all the coordinates of the ball and the fielder including speed of both - must be some other variable that messes it up