Olerud363.354

Schneider - Hoffman, you will be pitching only if it is 10-1 or 1-10. Hoffman - "Sounds good. I am not the best closer right now, but if I pitch good in the 10-1 games maybe you will reconsider me." Schneider - LIttle and Rodiriquez. You are going to Buffalo. Little and Rodriquez - "OK skip, there are worse places, we will try to learn better control in a stress free environment and hopefully see you all soon." Schneider - Lauer, you will have an opener but a great opportunity to pad your ERA and vulture a win. Lauer "You die *******. I will not suffer such an indignity. Go to hell. Straight to hell. I kick your fat ass and stat-boys Shitkins soft ass too"

I like to keep an eye on career minor league stats. He's .242 .376 .456. That will slowly go up if he keeps on demolishing the upper minors. People have good things to say about him I think. Like he hit the ball hard last year.

A lot of players that are everyday players in some form, and didn't go to College are 20 year olds in high A. Randal Grichuk was 20 in high A and hit .298. Trent Grisham was 20 in high A and hit .220. He hits .215 in the majors. Which could work for Nimmala if he has defense and base running. Trent has 14 WAR. Everyone if they didn't go to College and are destined to make the majors are 20 in high A... OK maybe not everyone. Anyway send Nimmala to that band-box in New Hampshire so we can find out if he is capable of padding stats in a hitters environment.

Same concern with Brandon Valenzuela... who is not a 20 year old, and it seems hit .299 as a 20 year old but his average fell apart in the upper minors and at 25 through almost 600 minor league games stands at .240 Kirk is .320 minors .267 majors, Heineman .278 minors, .238 majors... if I trained an AI off just those two it would predict Valenzuela would hit .200. Steamer is an AI trained off of all... it predicts Valenzuela will hit .203

Guys tend to lose some off their minor league batting average but gain power in the majors. Wiley Adames hit .270 .365 .414 in the minors, and .244 .320 .440 in the majors. Paul DeJong hit .270 in the minors. Randal Grichuk hit .270 in the minors. Bradley Zimmer .260 in the minors. Miles Straw hit .290 in the minors. Steamer has Nimala hitting .188 right now. Sounds about right given minor league numbers. Very hard to believe someone with a .228 minor league average can succeed. Argument for success 1. Very young. Will improve to a better average in his later minor league years. 2. Only 200 games the .228 average is random. 3. Injured last year. 4. Dunedin and Vancouver bad hitter parks. 5. Will hit .350 .450 .700 in New Hampshire hitting 2nd in front of Keys (.350 .450 .700 too). OK. Might as well send him to New Hampshire tomorrow to get his confidence up.

Got to give more prestige to the vulture role. Full time opener would go 0-3 2.44. If hypothetically full time opener 0 wins because would never go 5 innings. Full time starter (mediocre stuff) would go 4-11 5.44 because they would get crushed by top of the order 3rd time through. but... vulture (mediocre stuff) might go 11-4 3.55, because they'd be used more strategically. Miss the middle of the order first and 3rd time, but get 15 batters (middle of the order once), and no worries about 5 innings for win, because they come in second inning.

I seriously don't get it. There used to be like 140 inning long man occasional starter relieve role where guys could go 12-3 easy vulturing wins. Is like Arb against this kind of thing? Or is it just misplaced confidence? Like Lauer knows it is better to be 12-3, 3.55 as long man that faces middle of order only once, he know this is better then 4-11 5.44 with 32 starts... however he THINKS he'll go 15-5 in 32 starts.

Blue Jays built a commanding AL East lead with rotation of Gausman, Berrios, Bassit, Scherzer and Lauer.

He loses something when he gets out at second admiring a ball off the right field wall. He loses something when he gets out at second when he hits it 115 mph, 14 launch angle off left field wall. Does he lose anything when he stays at first admiring a ball off the right field wall? Justifiable if so. Does he lose anything if he stays at first with 115 mph, 14 launch angle off left field wall? Like he made the right decision but system pings him a bit. Is there even anything fancy here, or could you just list baserunning outs and Vlad would have 10 a year or something and it's just based on that, not on any fancy 'should have got to second on that ball' adjustments.

A bit of a tangent but do the Mets save 45 million on Bo Bichette if a strike? I know some players got big bonuses and stuff to bypass strike things (like Vlad might have 400 million bonus or something)... but is Bo protected from strike? Not good news for 2027 if Mets have multiple reasons to vote for the strike (bitterness, bad attitude, plus need to get out of Bo Bichette payments).

2027 homerun leaders (predicted) NA (non applicable season canceled because of Strike) 2026 Dodgers 112-50 3rd World Series victory in a row 2026 Mets 70-92 sadness - Mets ownership grumpy and bitter, cast tie breaking strike vote.

That would make him Vladdy Jackson, with lower k-rate and lower walk rate, Reggie did not win a homerun title young, but won a few after with 41, 39, 36 and 33. Those totals probably won't win homerun titles in the strange land of 2020s baseball. 2028 homerun leaders (predicted) 1. Murakami - White Sox 58 (221 ks) 2. Nick Kurtz - Las Vegas Athletics 56 (229 ks) 3. Aaaron (old) Judge - New York Yankees 49 (198 ks) .... 8 Vladimir Guerrero Jr - Toronto Blue Jays 38 (83 ks)

Manny Ramirez RBat+ seasons (top to bottom) age 22 to 26 - 147, 146, 146, 144. 125 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. top RBAT+ seasons (top to bottom) age 22 to 26 - 168, 163, 133, 133, 120 When you order it like that you can see they are comparable through age 26. Vlad has more variation. Manny raw numbers seems better because average team hit .260 .340 .450 or something back then. Manny Ramirez RBat+ seasons (top to bottom) age 27-31 - 186, 184, 174, 161, 158 Manny took it to the next level age 27-31

I posted this on the game thread but it's kind of cool so I'll post it here again. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Reggie Jackson have almost the same home run totals and same season to season variation between age 22 and 26 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksre01.shtml Both had a high 40s (Vlad 48 Reggie 47), both had a low 20s (both 23). Both had a 25 (well Vlad 26). Both had a 30 (well Reggie 29), both had exactly 32. Despite this Reggie isn't on Vlad's comparable list through age 26. Justin Upton who seems less comparable to me is. I guess they weight batting average, k-rate and other things just as much as homers. Most comparable are Eddie Murray and Freddie Freeman. Still on track with Ramirez and Cabrera through age 26. Their numbers looked bigger because of very different environment but normalized to environment still with them. HOWEVER. Cabrera and Ramirez dominated age 27-32. Triple crowns. Near triple crowns. Batting titles. .350 with great power and a great eye. Vlad has to take it to the next level to keep up now.

Player 1 and Player 2. Player 1 is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Who his his brother from a different mother? Hr Age 22-26 Vladimir: 48, 32, 26, 30, 23 Hr Age 22-26 Player X: 29, 47, 23, 32, 25 They are within 1 for every number. Like Vlad had a 48, X had a 47. Both had a 32. Vlad had a 30, X had a 29. Vlad had a 26, X had a 25. They both had a 23. They hit virtually the same number of homers with the same season totals (mixed up a bit) between age 22 and 26. Who is player X and what was his final total?

Dumb stat but it is the second I have invented after 'bases clogged' (walks + double - stolen bases - triples), lower is better. For example John Olerud has a lot of clogged bases (100 walks 40 doubles 0 steals 0 triples in a year would give you 140 clogged bases). Vince Colemen in his prime might have 50 walks 15 doubles 110 steals and 10 triples. That's like -55 clogged bases (negative is good, not clogging bases). Second stat I am inventing is called LOD. LOD stands for Leverage OPS dif. a) Take worst of your lead-off or second hitter and subtract the OPS against of your closer from it. Jeff Hoffman last year was like .750 or something, Nathan Lukes, who hit second game 7 of World Series was .730 or so LOD is -20 or so. That is bad. You'd like the LOD to be 200-300 (.800 OPS for worst of first or second hitter, .500 to .600 OPS against for closer. Kind of being stupid here, but the point is that for a World Series contender the closer should have a good OPS against (.500 or .600), and 1st and 2nd good OPS for (around .800 at least). They are the ones pitching the critical inning and getting the most at bats. Now of course not every team is perfect, but I bet almost every team with a bad LOD can fix this stat very easily. Hit Vlad second, Varland closes and LOD is like 400 or something. So teams could have both actual LOD (decision by management) and optimum LOD (what it could be if players used in best way.

ETA could realistically be any where between late next year or sometime 2028 IF he has as good as we hope. Like 2030 would mean a full year at each level, and that doesn't happen unless there is a bump in the road. If things are going good he'll do two levels a year.

Yeah... not saying it isn't out reason. Season is f***d all the same. Injuries are always the worse then expected. Like Barger and Springer aren't even running yet, so probably 2 weeks away. Varsho now. I also am pretty sure Yesivage isn't healthy. Getting beat up a bit in the minors and they will pitch Lauer again instead of giving him a start next week. Yeah I know. His "command" isn't quite there. I don't know. Seems to me if they were confident he was healthy he'd be up next week. A healthy Yesivage is a better bet then Lauer... we will see I guess. Happy to be wrong.

Never understood why guys like Lauer don't embrace this. If they did well 35 times a year on a good team they could go 12-2 3.50 and win a big arb. A starting pitcher has to go 5 to get win but a relief pitcher doesn't. So if some bulk guy journeyman with good attitude embraced it would be to their financial advantage. 1. Can vulture wins without 5 innings pitched 2. ERA a bit lower because miss top hitters one time.

Heard Vancouver park factor is bad for hitters maybe because of same climate as Seattle, which knocks down scoring by 10%. New Hampshire is good especially for lefties. So maybe I exaggerate but I think Sean Keys might go .220 .350 .400, in Vancouver, .300 .400 .600 in New Hampshire (exciting), then .270 .370 .450 in Buffalo. I'm making up numbers point is guys may not put up sexy numbers in Vancouver then too sexy in New Hampshire. Someone with a BA subscription can let us know the Park Factors.

According to fangraphs they are at 2% to win world series, 9% for division and 32% for playoffs. That is 49-1. So Vegas odds reflect that "the crowd" I guess thinks it better than that. Fair enough. Complain if you want about Fangraphs models, but Jays are now ranked 19th out of 30 teams according to playoff chance. They are all of a sudden a sub-average team in terms of "expected happiness provided to fans" in 2026. At least according to fangraphs.

Like I've always said, the seemingly irrational fans, are actually rational. Division odds now under 10, playoff odds maybe 30? Fans react to the odds, and have a good intuitive feel for them. And just frustrating that this basically happens every year. Every goddamn year. Never just a nice fun season end to end, they pull out of it for a division 7% of the time, for a wild card maybe 20% of the time. Just like the fangraphs odds say.

I believe almost every year since 1993 they've had a slow start and gotten 8-10 games out of 1st early. Like by mid May. Outside of 2014 and 2016 and 2009 arguably. Even the 2 years they won the division 2015 and 2025 they were out early. Jays fans under 40 have never had like the kind of seasons we had, 91 to 93 where they were just good and fun to watch all year. Every year? Yeah almost every year they do this. I think fangraphs has their chance to win the division at 10%. And that's what the data says. They've themselves in this position probably 30 times since 1993, and crawled out of it twice. Like everyones like 'hey its OK, we pulled out of last year'. NO! Of the 30 times this happened they pulled of it twice to win a division, and I guess 3 wild cards. So like it's 10% division 25% wild card now.

Launch angle -8, exit velocity 102 = VERY BAD Launch angle -25, exit velocity 62 = Kind of works.

Vlad is making good hard contact and crazy low k rate so I guess can sort of survive like this... maybe He is ... Yandy Diaz?? His launch angle is 1. His ground ball rate 55. Those are crazy bad and if he hits .280 instead of .320 with that kind of ground ball rate he is worthless... How are we still here after 8 years of this? The playoffs last year were just like his 2018 in New Hampshire or the first 100 games of2021 a weird few weeks that showed his 99.99th percentile true talent level but disappeared in to the abyss to be replaced by our old friend, who we see so often, ground ball Vlad.