[ALCS GM 2] Mariners (Gilbert) vs Blue Jays (Yesavage): 10/13/25, 5:03pm

[Omar]

14 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Bo injury sucks.  Got away with it for a while but eventually it would cost.   Last night Buffalo Boys hitting 2nd, 4th,  7th, and 8th, and I believe one of the worst hitters in baseball (Giminez) hitting 9th. 

Love what the Jays have done developing older, un-heralded guys, but lack of healthy Bichette and Santander hurts. 

Yeah, Vladdy's extraordinary performance in the DS hid the Bo absence.  With groundball Vladdy the Jays really feel Bo's bat missing.  Kirk and Varsho are the x factors:  If they get going there is a chance.  If they crap the bed, well our goose is cooked.

[BB17]

5 hours ago, jaysblue said:

For the Mariners to come into Toronto on short rest, exhausted from a 15-inning marathon and win both games is a huge shift in the series. It was so important that the Jays took one game in Toronto. 

3 games in a row now at Safeco. I guess the one plus is that Safeco does play like a home game for the Jays with all the BC fans making their way on down. 

It's not over, but the Jays have a much more difficult path now. Need to win at least 2 of 3 in Seattle and that's just to stay alive in the series. Come back to Toronto down 3-2 for Game 6 and 7.

Hopefully the Jays lean more on their starters in these games. Need to get 90-100 pitches out of Bieber, Gausman etc. The Jays don't have an elite pen where they can be over-managing games starting in the 5th innings on. 

I bet their hardly will be any Jays fans at least compared to regular season games. There might be 3-4K Jays fans there but playoffs is just different. Easier for people to plan out going to a regular season game and spending $50 a ticket not going mid week for a 5PM game and shelling out $400 a ticket.

 

Add in the factor Jays are down 2-0 and anyone who was on the fence about going prolly just said screw that.

[Jonn]

3 minutes ago, BB17 said:

I bet their hardly will be any Jays fans at least compared to regular season games. There might be 3-4K Jays fans there but playoffs is just different. Easier for people to plan out going to a regular season game and spending $50 a ticket not going mid week for a 5PM game and shelling out $400 a ticket.

 

Add in the factor Jays are down 2-0 and anyone who was on the fence about going prolly just said screw that.

But they need those fans more than ever now.

Plus despite going down 2-0 series. Anyone who is big enough Jays fan to make that trip in the first place. Shouldn’t need any extra motivation to go to a playoff game. One win and it’s a series.

[Terminator]

47 minutes ago, BB17 said:

I bet their hardly will be any Jays fans at least compared to regular season games. There might be 3-4K Jays fans there but playoffs is just different. Easier for people to plan out going to a regular season game and spending $50 a ticket not going mid week for a 5PM game and shelling out $400 a ticket.

 

Add in the factor Jays are down 2-0 and anyone who was on the fence about going prolly just said screw that.

Possible but the motivation will be high because how often will the Jays be playing ALCS baseball just a short drive away?

Mariners had plenty of tickets still available until they had actually clinched too while the Jays were sitting around waiting.

[BigRed]

1 hour ago, Omar said:

Yeah, Vladdy's extraordinary performance in the DS hid the Bo absence.  With groundball Vladdy the Jays really feel Bo's bat missing.  Kirk and Varsho are the x factors:  If they get going there is a chance.  If they crap the bed, well our goose is cooked.

I'm actually surprised this wasn't seen by more people ahead of time. When it was obvious that Bo wasn't coming back I didn't have a lot of hope for this series, much less a probable WS vs the Dodgers. When you're only carrying 4 MLB level bats (Springer, Vlad, Kirk and Varsho) and everyone else is an AAA/bench level player you can only expect so much. 

The narrative from sportsnet / Buck has been that we have all these lunchbox-type players, where every night somebody steps up... -- and maybe with some timely luck & hits, that can carry you a little bit more consistently thru the regular season when you're not playing playoff calibre teams nightly, but against top quality competition it's probably not a great recipe for success.

And I realise our SP hasn't really been an issue, but relying on Gausman who has a +4ERA in 5 post season starts, and a #2 who has 5 career MLB starts is eventually going to catch up to you as well.

 

 

[abola2121]

You can't even give Seattle much credit since they're playing a highly uncompetitive team atm.

[glory]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

The Mariners have struck out 25 times in the two games so far and the Jays have struck out 9.

The Jomboy guys were losing their minds talking about the Yankees needing to add more contact after the ALDS, when the Mariners are doing exactly the opposite and just hitting home runs to win. Putting the ball in play without home runs is not going to work. The Jays hit them in the DS. Stopped in the CS. Now they can't score. 

My guess is this winter the Jays are going to trade for Steven Kwan in their annual "let's save the Guardians some money" off season move, but they really need to add more consistent power. Hard to do that while prioritizing high contact rates, but you definitely need a blend. 

[Jays24]

3 minutes ago, abola2121 said:

You can't even give Seattle much credit since they're playing a highly uncompetitive team atm.

You definitely do give Seatrle credit for making the number 1 seed, who just embarrassed the Yankees, look uncompetitive.

[Doubleplay21]

Pulling your starter after 3 innings is something Dave Roberts does not do.

Different managerial skills

[abola2121]

11 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

You definitely do give Seattle credit for making the number 1 seed, who just embarrassed the Yankees, look uncompetitive.

Both their starting staff and offence are objectively inferior to New York's, they're up 2-0 only because the Jays have allowed it.

[Alejandro Murphy]

In a vital series, should there be a directive already from Atkins to John Schneider that Varland and Little should NO longer be pitching in high leverage situations?

 

With enough rest prior to this series, Lauer/ Bassit and Scherzer should have been the pitchers to have taken over both Gausman and Trey.  The reason why Nance was not brought over to the ALCS series.

 

This I could not comprehend.  Especially the prior shaky performances from both Varland and Little in the NY series.

 

what a very costly decision just to prove a point that the acquisition of Varland at the deadline was justified and now it backfired.

 

 

 

 

[Olerud363.354]

24 minutes ago, glory said:

My guess is this winter the Jays are going to trade for Steven Kwan in their annual "let's save the Guardians some money" off season move, but they really need to add more consistent power. Hard to do that while prioritizing high contact rates, but you definitely need a blend. 

Imagine they trade for Kwan and get Arraez.  People would lose their s***.    Probably justifiably so but would be funnier then the Keirmaier/IKF acquisitions after losing out on Ohtaniu.   Probably they go down to the wire for that "Japanese Babe Ruth" guy before getting Kwan and Arraez. 

[BB17]

1 hour ago, Terminator said:

Possible but the motivation will be high because how often will the Jays be playing ALCS baseball just a short drive away?

Mariners had plenty of tickets still available until they had actually clinched too while the Jays were sitting around waiting.

Yeah but look at how few Yankees fans there were In Toronto last weekend. Perfect weather, a cheap dollar and Western NY is 1.5-2 hour drive away yet there was maybe less than 2K NY fans in the building. And regular season you'd have 5-8K fans at minimum. 

There's always tickets available with the secondary market in this day and age so that's never really a deterrent for anyone who wants to go to the game. I think you guys will be quite disappointed if you are expecting 20% of the fans to be Jays fans.

[Brownie19]

The stupidity level in this thread is downright embarrassing. 

[Jonn]

I would like to see John Scheneider make in series adjustment by letting his starter get out of jams especially when they are pitching well. It has blown up his face 2 straight nights.

Ride the guys that you into this position. If Shane Bieber is not allowed to pitch himself out of 4th or 5th inning jams tomorrow. I gotta question why they traded for him. You took on a gamble on a rental coming off of Tommy John. And gave up a pretty good arm to get him. Give him the ball and sink or swim. 

[Brownie19]

The Gausman decision and the Yesavage decision were 2 completely different situations.  There certainly was an argument to leave Gausman in Game 1 - he was dealing, albeit things were trending in the wrong direction.  That was probably a coin flip situation. 

The Yesavage decision was pretty clear cut.  He wasn't dominating - he wasn't even good.  7 base runners, including a HR over 4 innings.  

It didn't work out (obviously) and now the Jays are probably f*cked, but trying to claim the best decision was to leave Trey in that game his really dumb - even in hindsight.  I appreciate that fans are going to, and want to vent, but that shouldn't be talking point.  Make the argument that they ought to have brought someone else in.  At least that's worth discussing.

[jaysblue]

8 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Can't remember if you were on the old board but Grant's 'Mariners are bad' thing has been going on for several years.  It's pretty unbelievable and no idea where or why he hates the Mariners. 

Did someone from Seattle steal one his girlfriends or something? 

[jaysblue]

18 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

2015 and 2025 I go to watch 2 playoff games at the Rogers Centre and they've lost all 4. Ffs

Please don't go to another Postseason game at the Rogers Centre ever again. 

[Masterbather]

I think there's way too much blame and finger pointing going on in these first two games when it comes to pitching decisions. 

I really think Seattle was just better. The Jays' players just didn't perform. I don't think any other manager wins either one of those games. The Mariners are really good.

Now it's going to be really f***ing tough going to Seattle. They got this thing lined up perfectly. But if we could find a way to put them under pressure who knows? Things can change quickly in sports. 

The odds are not good, but it's not over yet.

[ComeTogether]

22 hours ago, Trainspotting said:

Bring on the BROOMS

It's Halloween.  Sure.  Might reverse jinx the Mariners.  

[ComeTogether]

18 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

2015 and 2025 I go to watch 2 playoff games at the Rogers Centre and they've lost all 4. Ffs

So you're the problem! J/k

[Laika]

Just funny how all season long, most baseball fans realize that good teams can play bad for series and weeks at a time but then when it happens in the playoffs everything needs a reason or someone to blame.

A lot of it is just disappointingly random. 

Game 2, none of that is luck it's just a stinker.

Game 1, yes Bryce Miller pitched well and the Jays failed to adjust properly to whatever wrinkle he was throwing at them, but the Jays also had:

• .380 xBA groundout from Vlad 109 mph
• .750 xBA lineout from Vlad 107.2 mph 14 degrees
• .500 xBA lineout from Varsho 102.5 mph 20 degrees
• .570 xBA lineout from Clement 99.1 mph
• .930 xBA lineout from Santander 

So a lot or most of a 3-1 game like that is just random variation. Jorge Polanco's RBI single in the eight inning had an xBA of 0.090. 

Jays have up 11 hard hit balls, Seattle gave up 10. 

Jays had a 40% hard hit rate and .069 batting average in game 1 lol. 

The random beauty of baseball. God smiled upon Bryce Miller, for a day. 

[glory]

Yeah I have no real issue with taking Trey out. If anything, you could argue he should have taken him out sooner. I know according to JS, the combo of Varland and Little are Mariano and Wagner reborn, but reality paints a different picture. Don't bring those guys in with runners on base. Either start the inning with them, or go with someone else (Fluharty and Fisher, for example). If Varland was the guy, then just take Trey out after 4 and give Varland a fresh inning. 

Taking Gausman out OTOH was inexcusable to me. He was dealing, the pitch count was low, and he made a mistake pitch to Cal. It happens. The fact that Varland was warming up before Gausman even started the 6th inning tells you what JS's thought process was, and it was wrong. 

[BTS]

2 minutes ago, Laika said:

Just funny how all season long, most baseball fans realize that good teams can play bad for series and weeks at a time but then when it happens in the playoffs everything needs a reason or someone to blame.

A lot of it is just disappointingly random. 

Game 2, none of that is luck it's just a stinker.

Game 1, yes Bryce Miller pitched well and the Jays failed to adjust properly to whatever wrinkle he was throwing at them, but the Jays also had:

• .380 xBA groundout from Vlad 109 mph
• .750 xBA lineout from Vlad 107.2 mph 14 degrees
• .500 xBA lineout from Varsho 102.5 mph 20 degrees
• .570 xBA lineout from Clement 99.1 mph
• .930 xBA lineout from Santander 

So a lot or most of a 3-1 game like that is just random variation. Jorge Polanco's RBI single in the eight inning had an xBA of 0.090. 

Jays have up 11 hard hit balls, Seattle gave up 10. 

Jays had a 40% hard hit rate and .069 batting average in game 1 lol. 

The random beauty of baseball. God smiled upon Bryce Miller, for a day. 

There were also a lot of people underestimating Seattle coming in, with everyone riding high because the Jays looked like world-beaters vs. NY. This was always going to be tough, because Seattle is a very good team. Throw in regular baseball stuff (bad batted ball luck in game 1 + a pitching implosion in game 2) and you have an 0-2 hole, but no one thing to really pin it on or be upset over.

[Terminator]

Yeah and on top of it we struck out 4 and 5 times, respectively. The hard hit balls aren't dropping and we aren't getting any lucky bloopers either. Normally you'd expect at least some of those sub .200 xBAs to drop.

Mariners meanwhile are striking out like crazy but when they do make contact it's dropping, despite some pretty darn low xBAs.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Just now, BTS said:

There were also a lot of people underestimating Seattle coming in, with everyone riding high because the Jays looked like world-beaters vs. NY. This was always going to be tough, because Seattle is a very good team. Throw in regular baseball stuff (bad batted ball luck in game 1 + a pitching implosion in game 2) and you have an 0-2 hole, but no one thing to really pin it on or be upset over.

Agreed, but the whiners have to pin it on somebody and the Jays will once again be a crappy team that got lucky all year. Also, Shatkins and Schneider will need to be immediately catapulted into the sun.

 

In truth though, the bones of this team will still be in tact. If they can't turn this series around, build the rotation back up in the off season, tweak the rest of the roster a little, and try to make the playoffs for the 5th time in 7 years and hope they take another step in the post season.

 

[Terminator]

What if Bieber spins a gem tomorrow and Mad Max turns back the clock one more time in Game 4?

[SeranthonySantander]

Mariners had a guy on 2nd 3 times with no outs against the tigers in extra innings without scoring.

 

just bad timing 

 

we pull out the win tomorrow and they will be the ones quivering in their diapers while we have nothing to lose 

[Masterbather]

5 minutes ago, Terminator said:

What if Bieber spins a gem tomorrow and Mad Max turns back the clock one more time in Game 4?

Well this really is it for them. It's literally now or never for both him and Bieber.

I don't have a whole lot of faith in either one of them at the moment but this is what they were brought here to do.

Show up or GTFO.

[BB17]

42 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Yeah and on top of it we struck out 4 and 5 times, respectively. The hard hit balls aren't dropping and we aren't getting any lucky bloopers either. Normally you'd expect at least some of those sub .200 xBAs to drop.

Mariners meanwhile are striking out like crazy but when they do make contact it's dropping, despite some pretty darn low xBAs.

That's why Home run are so important in the postseason. Seattle had two 3 run homers yesterday despite at the time not looking much different than the Jays. You remove randomness if you put the ball over the fence.