[ALCS GM 2] Mariners (Gilbert) vs Blue Jays (Yesavage): 10/13/25, 5:03pm

[SeranthonySantander]

37 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Agreed, but the whiners have to pin it on somebody and the Jays will once again be a crappy team that got lucky all year. Also, Shatkins and Schneider will need to be immediately catapulted into the sun.

 

In truth though, the bones of this team will still be in tact. If they can't turn this series around, build the rotation back up in the off season, tweak the rest of the roster a little, and try to make the playoffs for the 5th time in 7 years and hope they take another step in the post season.

 

The playoffs are now easy to make because of the wildcards.  The big money teams should be getting a spot 5/7 times 

[Eat My Shatkins]

1 minute ago, SeranthonySantander said:

The playoffs are now easy to make because of the wildcards.  The big money teams should be getting a spot 5/7 times 

Ok....

[SeranthonySantander]

7 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Ok....

Would have been nice to do it with the Bo window but I guess they could somehow be better next year with a few right moves.  Or we make the World Series and get him back, gonna need him because the Brewers are a good team.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Everybody talks about the randomness of baseball in small sample sizes. Well, the playoffs are a small sample size. To top it off, all the teams in the playoffs are good teams, proven over a huge sample size of a 162 game regular season.

 

The best team doesn't always win in the playoffs, and you need to be more than just good to win, you also need some good fortune as well.

 

The most important thing is to bulld a team that is good enough to make the playoffs multiple times in a 5 to 10 year period, and eventually you should break through and win it all because at some point luck will break your way.

[Terminator]

15 minutes ago, BB17 said:

That's why Home run are so important in the postseason. Seattle had two 3 run homers yesterday despite at the time not looking much different than the Jays. You remove randomness if you put the ball over the fence.

Yeah true but it's still pretty random. We've been hitting our fair share of homers this postseason as well. Same amount of homers in 1 less game. And we've been piling on the hits too. 125 wRC+ compared to the Mariners 95.

They were lucky to eek by a Tigers team that isn't very good. They were actually outscored in that series by a run despite winning 3 games to 2.

Now they've had two good games in a row and the perception is that they are some super team swatting home runs and making their own luck and we suck. But in reality we've outplayed them during the entirety of the postseason, our sequencing just sucks by having two bad games in a row to start off the series.

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Masterbather said:

I think there's way too much blame and finger pointing going on in these first two games when it comes to pitching decisions. 

I really think Seattle was just better. The Jays' players just didn't perform. I don't think any other manager wins either one of those games. The Mariners are really good.

Now it's going to be really f***ing tough going to Seattle. They got this thing lined up perfectly. But if we could find a way to put them under pressure who knows? Things can change quickly in sports. 

The odds are not good, but it's not over yet.

[Brownie19]

3 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

I thought the same thing - he's bang on (for once)

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, BTS said:

There were also a lot of people underestimating Seattle coming in, with everyone riding high because the Jays looked like world-beaters vs. NY. This was always going to be tough, because Seattle is a very good team. Throw in regular baseball stuff (bad batted ball luck in game 1 + a pitching implosion in game 2) and you have an 0-2 hole, but no one thing to really pin it on or be upset over.

That Seattle/Detroit game thread was littered with people thinking the series was over before it started, the reactions then were egregious. You have to play the games, man.

[Brownie19]

4 hours ago, Jonn said:

I would like to see John Scheneider make in series adjustment by letting his starter get out of jams especially when they are pitching well. It has blown up his face 2 straight nights.

Ride the guys that you into this position. If Shane Bieber is not allowed to pitch himself out of 4th or 5th inning jams tomorrow. I gotta question why they traded for him. You took on a gamble on a rental coming off of Tommy John. And gave up a pretty good arm to get him. Give him the ball and sink or swim. 

The reality is that sometimes, even if you make the right move (which increases your chances of winning), it doesn't work out.  Results aren't guaranteed.  I expect JS to continue to make moves that give us the best chance of winning.  I suspect the Gausman decision gave up a slight advantage, but I suspect pulling Trey yesterday significantly increased our odds of winning that game.  There can't be some pre-determined decision to ride or die with Bieber because going the pen failed the first 2 games, or because he was a trade deadline deal.

I know it feels like JS has no "feel" and we all point at certain games where decisions backfire - but he just lead us through a 94 win season and we beat the Yanks with a bullpen day.  Most of these decisions end up giving you "slight" advantages over the other.  Managers can't control all the variables that occur during a game, which is really what determines the outcome.  I know fans struggle with that.

[Terminator]

• Saturday night: The Jays are winning the World Series.
• After Game 1: We're in okay shape, we will still win the series.
• After Game 2: Season is over, kill me.
• During the Day Off: You know what, I still think we have a chance....

[Spanky__99]

35 minutes ago, Terminator said:

Yeah true but it's still pretty random. We've been hitting our fair share of homers this postseason as well. Same amount of homers in 1 less game. And we've been piling on the hits too. 125 wRC+ compared to the Mariners 95.

They were lucky to eek by a Tigers team that isn't very good. They were actually outscored in that series by a run despite winning 3 games to 2.

Now they've had two good games in a row and the perception is that they are some super team swatting home runs and making their own luck and we suck. But in reality we've outplayed them during the entirety of the postseason, our sequencing just sucks by having two bad games in a row to start off the series.

Beat me to it Sheriff, great job.

[glory]

I could see Bieber spinning a gem given Safeco, but Max in Game 4 is terrifying. 

 

[SeranthonySantander]

maybe Gausman is going on short rest Friday?  Or probably more like a Lauer/Varland/Chris bullpen game

[bones]

why is anyone *****ing about pitching changes? Jays had the starters in game 1 and 2 on the ropes and failed to capitalize.  They had TWO f***ing hits in game 1. Yesavage getting three more outs doesn't mean we win that game by any means.

[hanton]

3 minutes ago, bones said:

why is anyone *****ing about pitching changes? Jays had the starters in game 1 and 2 on the ropes and failed to capitalize.  They had TWO f***ing hits in game 1. Yesavage getting three more outs doesn't mean we win that game by any means.

we need a Snell like start, that's not only on our starters but also on JS and his quick hook

[Stangstag]

12 minutes ago, hanton said:

we need a Snell like start, that's not only on our starters but also on JS and his quick hook

We don’t have a single pitcher on the roster capable of giving us a “Snell-like” start, if you are referring to his start yesterday. That is one of the greatest postseason starts of the last few years.

Unrealistic expectation 

[Big_Walleye]

7 hours ago, Alejandro Murphy said:

In a vital series, should there be a directive already from Atkins to John Schneider that Varland and Little should NO longer be pitching in high leverage situations?

 

With enough rest prior to this series, Lauer/ Bassit and Scherzer should have been the pitchers to have taken over both Gausman and Trey.  The reason why Nance was not brought over to the ALCS series.

 

This I could not comprehend.  Especially the prior shaky performances from both Varland and Little in the NY series.

 

what a very costly decision just to prove a point that the acquisition of Varland at the deadline was justified and now it backfired.

 

 

 

 

I'd be happy if we didn't see Varland again till next year as a starter.

Little on the other hand is exactly the type of reliever you need in the postseason.  Why?  Because he doesn't give up homers.  He led the league with 79 appearances and gave up 2 homers.  TWO HOMERS!!

Yeah he's wild at times but he's also extremely nasty.  If you asked opposing players which Jays reliever they'd rather not face Little would be the first name out of their mouth.

This idea by some that Little shouldn't be in the game is ludicrous!!

[SeranthonySantander]

20 minutes ago, Big_Walleye said:

I'd be happy if we didn't see Varland again till next year as a starter.

Little on the other hand is exactly the type of reliever you need in the postseason.  Why?  Because he doesn't give up homers.  He led the league with 79 appearances and gave up 2 homers.  TWO HOMERS!!

Yeah he's wild at times but he's also extremely nasty.  If you asked opposing players which Jays reliever they'd rather not face Little would be the first name out of their mouth.

This idea by some that Little shouldn't be in the game is ludicrous!!

hes definitely going to be used at least once in the next 2 games

[hanton]

1 hour ago, Stangstag said:

We don’t have a single pitcher on the roster capable of giving us a “Snell-like” start, if you are referring to his start yesterday. That is one of the greatest postseason starts of the last few years.

Unrealistic expectation 

Gausman

[Brownie19]

4 hours ago, BB17 said:

That's why Home run are so important in the postseason. Seattle had two 3 run homers yesterday despite at the time not looking much different than the Jays. You remove randomness if you put the ball over the fence.

It is.  But home runs often are inconsistent.  If you get hot you're laughing, but if you're cold, you're screwed.  So it has randomness in it too.

[Spanky__99]

Like seriously, didn't the Jays just hit the ball over the fence 6 more times than the big bad Yankees? Of course there's variance, geez. 😅

[BigRed]

4 hours ago, hanton said:

Gausman

You're joking, right?

[jaysblue]

11 hours ago, glory said:

I could see Bieber spinning a gem given Safeco, but Max in Game 4 is terrifying. 

 

Weirder stuff happens in the Postseason. When you don't expect it, the opposite happens. 

Wouldn't surprise me if Scherzer pitched a gem for 5-6 innings in Game 4 lol. 

[Olerud363.354]

13 hours ago, Terminator said:

• Saturday night: The Jays are winning the World Series.
• After Game 1: We're in okay shape, we will still win the series.
• After Game 2: Season is over, kill me.
• During the Day Off: You know what, I still think we have a chance....

One hill I will die is that the crazy fan reactions do track probability shifts.  Lose first 2 games of series you basically go from 50% to 12% chance of winning the series.   Good news is that since the Jays regularly go down 0-2 in the ALCS they should by chance come back and win from one of these 0-2 deficits. 

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

One hill I will die is that the crazy fan reactions do track probability shifts.  Lose first 2 games of series you basically go from 50% to 12% chance of winning the series.   Good news is that since the Jays regularly go down 0-2 in the ALCS they should by chance come back and win from one of these 0-2 deficits. 

Of course they do.

It's the rational as to why we lose that gets all squirrelly.  People are dead set on identifying a single moment or a single player/manager as the reason we lost.  They seemingly just can't help themselves.

[glory]

The Jays have lost the first two games of a playoff series in 7 of their last 9 (Texas, KC, Cleveland, Tampa, Seattle, Minnesota, Seattle again). Not ideal.

Odds are definitely in Seattle’s favor now so between that and being on the road, hopefully it loosens the Jays up a bit. Best case scenario, Seattle’s park ends up helping the BABIP dependent offense for the Jays who can win without home runs likely better than Seattle can, and ends up making some of the 111 mph fly balls that Max gives up find gloves in the OF rather than sail over the fence.

One game at a time.

[Terminator]

15 hours ago, Terminator said:

• Saturday night: The Jays are winning the World Series.
• After Game 1: We're in okay shape, we will still win the series.
• After Game 2: Season is over, kill me.
• During the Day Off: You know what, I still think we have a chance....

Updated:

• Saturday night: The Jays are winning the World Series.
• After Game 1: We're in okay shape, we will still win the series.
• After Game 2: Season is over, kill me.
• During the Day Off: You know what, I still think we have a chance....
• Leading into Game 3: Win this game and we are right back in it

[G-Snarls]

19 hours ago, SeranthonySantander said:

maybe Gausman is going on short rest Friday?  Or probably more like a Lauer/Varland/Chris bullpen game

Let's play these next 2 and see how it goes and see how much the bullpen has to be used first...

[Spanky__99]

2 hours ago, G-Snarls said:

Let's play these next 2 and see how it goes and see how much the bullpen has to be used first...

Gausman would not be going on short rest Friday, dude doesn't know what he's talking about.

[SeranthonySantander]

38 minutes ago, Spanky__99 said:

Gausman would not be going on short rest Friday, dude doesn't know what he's talking about.

That why I said more likely lauer and bullpen. Read.  But I bet an elimination game he would become available . Maybe you don’t know what you’re talking about?