2023 Post-Mortem Thread

[L54]

Guerrero made like a dozen bone headed mistakes on the bases this year and I don't think he was benched once.

 

No accountability means nobody learns from their mistakes

[Jonn]

Two American League Championship Titles. You want to be the Rays with a payroll. Which would make you the Dodgers

 

Dodgers only won a Mickey Mouse World Series.

[AMS528]

My biggest issue with pulling Berrios is regardless of how it worked or didn't, when you consider allocation of resources it makes no sense.

 

What is the point of committing over 100 million dollars to a starter if you're going to only give them 3 innings in a must win playoff game.

 

If that's the case then get guys who won't cost that much to pitch that little and allocate that money to the offense or bullpen.

[Jimcanuck]

My biggest issue with pulling Berrios is regardless of how it worked or didn't, when you consider allocation of resources it makes no sense.

 

What is the point of committing over 100 million dollars to a starter if you're going to only give them 3 innings in a must win playoff game.

 

If that's the case then get guys who won't cost that much to pitch that little and allocate that money to the offense or bullpen.

 

Not only that, but there is a significant risk of pulling an effective pitcher for another, not knowing if the new pitcher will be effective or not. Some days, a pitcher just does not have it. As we all know, there is a significant variation in pitcher performance from start to start, appearance to appearance.

 

If you use analytics (i.e., statistical probabilities) to come up with a predetermined strategy, but don't adjust it based on real time data, you aren't using analytics properly.

[Olerud363]

Not only that, but there is a significant risk of pulling an effective pitcher for another, not knowing if the new pitcher will be effective or not. Some days, a pitcher just does not have it. As we all know, there is a significant variation in pitcher performance from start to start, appearance to appearance.

 

If you use analytics (i.e., statistical probabilities) to come up with a predetermined strategy, but don't adjust it based on real time data, you aren't using analytics properly.

 

 

Is there more variation in the first inning a pitcher appears as compared to other innings?

 

Is there more correlation between same game innings then between different game innings?

 

Can you use stuff metrics to predict pitchers next inning? I assume teams are trying this.

 

If in 1000 games you pull Berrios after 3 scoreless what if team has .530 winning percentage when he's pulled, but .520 when not. How would we know if it was the right move that just went wrong.

 

Some of this goes back to doing it all the time, if you are going to do it in the most critical game. With the former at least you have a sample size of success to draw on, players, fans, media are used to it, and you say this is the way we do things in North Dakota.

[Olerud363]

My biggest issue with pulling Berrios is regardless of how it worked or didn't, when you consider allocation of resources it makes no sense.

 

What is the point of committing over 100 million dollars to a starter if you're going to only give them 3 innings in a must win playoff game.

 

If that's the case then get guys who won't cost that much to pitch that little and allocate that money to the offense or bullpen.

 

 

If you are going down this road allocate all moneez available to Ohtani, and make Ohtani, Pearson, Tiederman, Kikuchi, Manoah, Mitch White all piggy back guys.

 

Make Gausman a 5 or 6 inning guy still for 20 appearances, piggy back for 10, and 10 relief so they don't know when the hell he's going to appear and can't gameplan him.

[Stangstag]

Guerrero made like a dozen bone headed mistakes on the bases this year and I don't think he was benched once.

 

Yep. Failure by the coaching staff. This is why JS should be fired IMO. These guys still haven’t learned from their mistakes.

[Jimcanuck]

Is there more variation in the first inning a pitcher appears as compared to other innings?

 

Is there more correlation between same game innings then between different game innings?

 

Can you use stuff metrics to predict pitchers next inning? I assume teams are trying this.

 

If in 1000 games you pull Berrios after 3 scoreless what if team has .530 winning percentage when he's pulled, but .520 when not. How would we know if it was the right move that just went wrong.

 

Some of this goes back to doing it all the time, if you are going to do it in the most critical game. With the former at least you have a sample size of success to draw on, players, fans, media are used to it, and you say this is the way we do things in North Dakota.

 

I would suggest the variation is far higher game to game than it is inning by inning. If a pitcher is on, he's on. Effectiveness wanes the more times through the order, that has to be taken into account.

 

If teams aren't currently using the part I bolded in your post, then the manager has to be able to override based on what is going on in-game.

[Terminator]

I knew you were going to pull this out of your hat haha.

 

Tommy Pham would have been a nice addition sure.

 

We can't just go by who was moved at the deadline and assume they were the only bats the Jays could have acquired. I'm sure other bats were available that we don't know of.

 

The window is pretty much closing with this roster. The FO failed this season to capitalize on a strong rotation and bullpen. Sure we have 4 arms back next season, but we can't just assume they all 4 stay all healthy again and pitch at the same high level.

 

If we traded for Tommy Pham (who put up 0.3 WAR after the ASB) we probably don't even give Davis Schneider a chance (put up 2 WAR after the ASB) and we would have missed the playoffs lol

 

Also, I think it's also a false assumption to think that Tommy Pham helps us advance against Minnesota. He might have helped but he probably wouldn't have, he's a worse player than most of our starters after all.

 

Hence my point that this team was only going as far as our underperforming core was going to take it. All the moves made in the offseason didn't "sacrifice" offense as you constantly harp on. It was the underperformance of the core guys we already had in place.

[Brownie19]

My biggest issue with pulling Berrios is regardless of how it worked or didn't, when you consider allocation of resources it makes no sense.

 

What is the point of committing over 100 million dollars to a starter if you're going to only give them 3 innings in a must win playoff game.

 

If that's the case then get guys who won't cost that much to pitch that little and allocate that money to the offense or bullpen.

 

The 100 million dollar starter is needed to get you into the playoffs. Once you're in, it's all a crapshoot anyway.

[L54]

Every team should submit their 40 man rosters the day before opening day.

 

Then instead of playing the games they should just broadcast MLB The Show and let the chips lie as they may

[TheHurl]

Dodgers only won a Mickey Mouse World Series.

 

And I would still love to be a fan of that team. They have played a lot of meaningful baseball games and have provided their fans a lot of wins.

[wilko]

Get rid of the nerds.

 

[Nexii]

Yep. Failure by the coaching staff. This is why JS should be fired IMO. These guys still haven’t learned from their mistakes.

 

I think JS is just way too buddy-buddy/friendly with the players to hold them accountable for anything. Had to look it up on Fangraphs - Jays were 4th worst in baserunning, no surprise there

[John_Havok]

I think JS is just way too buddy-buddy/friendly with the players to hold them accountable for anything. Had to look it up on Fangraphs - Jays were 4th worst in baserunning, no surprise there

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/baserunning?sortColumn=team_name&sortDirection=asc

 

Kirk sucks because he's fat and slow, he generally makes good decisions.

VLad sucks because he's fat and slow and makes horrible decisions, some pay off, some dont. Positive value from advancing is at least some glimmer of hope that he can get better....maybe.

Belt is just old and slow, makes good decisions

Springer is still pretty good, i think he suffers from the occasional lapse but also being sent to die by Rivera.

Espy is middle of the road. Brain cramps from aggression and he has gotten slower.

Bo is the same as Espy, takes some dumb risks, but generally doesn't run himself off the bases alot (recent issues notwithstanding). Another guy who seems to get gunned at home alot being sent by the windmill 3b coach.

Chappy is a pretty good baserunner but this year especially it seems like he started trying to do too much at times.

Biggio - steady.

Merrifield - excellent speed but made some really uncharacteristic mistakes this year getting thrown out way more than he should.

KK - Jesus on the bases. he can do no wrong

Varsho - Better than Jesus.

Jansen - about average, always makes good choices, just limited by catcher speed and Rivera being stupid.

 

Imagine where theyd be with LG (0 runs)over Varsho(+4) and Teo(-4) over KK(+3) right now, would be an all time low record for baserunning idiocy

[Doubleplay21]

These fire Schneider posts are terrible

He uses his charts and is so prepared for every matchup. He knows the analytics and makes his analytics will never go against them.

[Krylian]

[BatFlip]

 

s***, that made me laugh out loud. Well done.

[wilko]

 

[BatFlip]

Sid had a pretty epic rant on the Jays organization that was right on the money:

 

[BigCecil]

Was just thinking about baseball narratives and how non linear the sport is.

 

After 2021 it was "If only we played at the RC all year and our young core is going to learn so much from this".

 

Fast forward to 2023 to a revamped team - Vlad is getting picked off 2B in playoff game as the tying run with our best hitter up.

 

2023 was a tough year overall. Some teams with high expectations had worse.

[Brownie19]

Sid had a pretty epic rant on the Jays organization that was right on the money:

 

 

Doesn't he basically suggest we shouldn't use analytics? I'm not sure how any logical fan would believe that's a good idea. Maybe ask the Colorado Rockies how that's working out for them.

[Laika]

Fire Ross Atkins, sure, but fire all the people over 50 years old with him.

 

Promote some kid with pimples straight from analytics junior researcher to GM.

[Stangstag]

Was just thinking about baseball narratives and how non linear the sport is.

 

After 2021 it was "If only we played at the RC all year and our young core is going to learn so much from this".

 

Fast forward to 2023 to a revamped team - Vlad is getting picked off 2B in playoff game as the tying run with our best hitter up.

 

2023 was a tough year overall. Some teams with high expectations had worse.

 

We did better than the Yankees, Mets, Angels and Padres in the expectations-results department. That’s about it. Woohoo.

[MikeM3]

My biggest issue with pulling Berrios is regardless of how it worked or didn't, when you consider allocation of resources it makes no sense.

 

What is the point of committing over 100 million dollars to a starter if you're going to only give them 3 innings in a must win playoff game.

 

If that's the case then get guys who won't cost that much to pitch that little and allocate that money to the offense or bullpen.

 

That is exactly right. Atkins is caught in the middle of what he's trying to accomplish

[BatFlip]

Doesn't he basically suggest we shouldn't use analytics? I'm not sure how any logical fan would believe that's a good idea. Maybe ask the Colorado Rockies how that's working out for them.

 

Yeah fair. I'm definitely pro-analytics, but the rage resonated re: the Berrios decision and the inflexibility of that spreadsheet decision.

 

I was just overcome with joy that someone in the media finally called out for Vladdy to show up to spring training in shape.

[John_Havok]

Fire Ross Atkins, sure, but fire all the people over 50 years old with him.

 

Promote some kid with pimples straight from analytics junior researcher to GM.

 

Is Spencer and jfas still there? Pulling Berrios really feels like a jfas move to me.

[Nexii]

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/baserunning?sortColumn=team_name&sortDirection=asc

 

Kirk sucks because he's fat and slow, he generally makes good decisions.

VLad sucks because he's fat and slow and makes horrible decisions, some pay off, some dont. Positive value from advancing is at least some glimmer of hope that he can get better....maybe.

Belt is just old and slow, makes good decisions

Springer is still pretty good, i think he suffers from the occasional lapse but also being sent to die by Rivera.

Espy is middle of the road. Brain cramps from aggression and he has gotten slower.

Bo is the same as Espy, takes some dumb risks, but generally doesn't run himself off the bases alot (recent issues notwithstanding). Another guy who seems to get gunned at home alot being sent by the windmill 3b coach.

Chappy is a pretty good baserunner but this year especially it seems like he started trying to do too much at times.

Biggio - steady.

Merrifield - excellent speed but made some really uncharacteristic mistakes this year getting thrown out way more than he should.

KK - Jesus on the bases. he can do no wrong

Varsho - Better than Jesus.

Jansen - about average, always makes good choices, just limited by catcher speed and Rivera being stupid.

 

Imagine where theyd be with LG (0 runs)over Varsho(+4) and Teo(-4) over KK(+3) right now, would be an all time low record for baserunning idiocy

 

Raw sprint speed puts the Jays 16th (27.3 m/s). So it's a bit of that but much more bad decisions

[BigCecil]

We did better than the Yankees, Mets, Angels and Padres in the expectations-results department. That’s about it. Woohoo.

 

Ya, I'm not taking any solace in it either. But it is a fact others had more painful seasons...which is hard to comprehend.

 

This team feels adrift caught in eternal upper echelon 90 +/- 3 wins mediocrity.

[John_Havok]

Raw sprint speed puts the Jays 16th (27.3 m/s). So it's a bit of that but much more bad decisions

 

Agree, but alot of those decisions are on Rivera. His errors in sending runners probably outweighs all the individual mistakes added together