2023 Post-Mortem Thread

[Carlos Danger]

again. All of you are assuming that Berrios doesn't give up a run. People keep saying that Berrios had the best stuff he's had. It was also said in the Yankees game a week ago. He had no hit them and struck out 5. Throwing nothing but strikes. He walked the first batter and then 3 more hits. If Berrios gives up the runs. We are behind and set up poorly on our bullpen matchups. If we keep Berrios in and he gives up none through 5. The bullpen still has to face all those lefties, that we didn't want our pen to face. Maybe they give up the runs. Keeping Berrios in is hoping for a 1-0 win in the fans mind. That's not good game planning either.

 

I can buy it being a different lefty, I can buy it not being Berrios starting. But the jays game plan gave up 2 cheap runs. That is a success. The issue is optics and made up stuff about how it energized the Twins (who would have been energized if they got a s***** single off Berrios too)

 

There is an article on Sportsnet that show why it was the wrong decision even based upon the numbers and wanting to get the lefty bats out. That didn't work either....

[hanton]

again. All of you are assuming that Berrios doesn't give up a run. People keep saying that Berrios had the best stuff he's had. It was also said in the Yankees game a week ago. He had no hit them and struck out 5. Throwing nothing but strikes. He walked the first batter and then 3 more hits. If Berrios gives up the runs. We are behind and set up poorly on our bullpen matchups. If we keep Berrios in and he gives up none through 5. The bullpen still has to face all those lefties, that we didn't want our pen to face. Maybe they give up the runs. Keeping Berrios in is hoping for a 1-0 win in the fans mind. That's not good game planning either.

 

I can buy it being a different lefty, I can buy it not being Berrios starting. But the jays game plan gave up 2 cheap runs. That is a success. The issue is optics and made up stuff about how it energized the Twins (who would have been energized if they got a s***** single off Berrios too)

 

The issue is there's very little room for error in a short series, removing Berrios was just dumb I want to see their analytics

[DCJaysF]

The hate for Bo is really perplexing to me.

 

ItÂ’s down right ignorant lol. He had a 4.2 fWAR and a 4.8 BWar season. So a 4-5 WAR season depending on the site. How many 6-7 WAR players do people think there are lol.

 

Was ten in both leagues combined that were at six fWAR or higher. Two of those were exactly 6. Four players in both leagues over 7 WAR

 

Of those four players this year with 7 or over WAR, one was Mookie Betts, probably the second best player( after Trout) in the last two decades. Another one was Othani, who before he got injured was already being called a potential GOAT. And another was Acuna Jr lol

[Olerud363]

Aside from Bo's defense, he's been really the only bat who has performed offensively at a high level when healthy. Springer, Vladdy, Kirk, Chapman, Varsho were all disappointments this season.

 

Isn't the "hate" for Bo just coming from one guy (LTBF) because he is pissed that everyone hates Vlad, so has some gig going where he performs the 'Vlad hate' on Bo.

 

Like

 

maniacs on the board (like me) - It really sucks that Vlad 80 hit tool Guerrero is getting beat by Ryan Noda in WAR, release Vlad!

 

LTBF - Well it really sucks that Bo Bichette is getting beat by Cory Seager in WAR, release Bo!

 

It's not literally quite that bad, but close. Like legit Vlad hate comments are parroted by LTBF as not legit Bo hate versions.

[jaysblue]

again. All of you are assuming that Berrios doesn't give up a run. People keep saying that Berrios had the best stuff he's had. It was also said in the Yankees game a week ago. He had no hit them and struck out 5. Throwing nothing but strikes. He walked the first batter and then 3 more hits. If Berrios gives up the runs. We are behind and set up poorly on our bullpen matchups. If we keep Berrios in and he gives up none through 5. The bullpen still has to face all those lefties, that we didn't want our pen to face. Maybe they give up the runs. Keeping Berrios in is hoping for a 1-0 win in the fans mind. That's not good game planning either.

 

I can buy it being a different lefty, I can buy it not being Berrios starting. But the jays game plan gave up 2 cheap runs. That is a success. The issue is optics and made up stuff about how it energized the Twins (who would have been energized if they got a s***** single off Berrios too)

 

Why did the Jays sign Berrios to a $130M extension? Just to pitch 3 innings in a Postseason game?

 

I agree, the outcome wasn't as bad as it was. Still just down 2-0 and had opportunities to tie the game or take the lead. Regardless, we're only in the 4th inning with a runner on first base in a 0-0 game. It's not like this was the 6th or 7th inning or heck wasn't like Berrios was laboring till that point in the game. Analytics have their place, but sometimes overthinking and overmanaging is a bit too much. Common sense has to come into play.

 

As well, someone made a comment about the team morale after. You had Merrifield post game calling out that decision, supposedly Pete Walker was furious and I'm sure other players as well. There is a human element to this game. Players and pitchers aren't all robots and computers. Berrios didn't do anything to warrant him being pulled in the 4th inning.

[Carlos Danger]

again. All of you are assuming that Berrios doesn't give up a run. People keep saying that Berrios had the best stuff he's had. It was also said in the Yankees game a week ago. He had no hit them and struck out 5. Throwing nothing but strikes. He walked the first batter and then 3 more hits. If Berrios gives up the runs. We are behind and set up poorly on our bullpen matchups. If we keep Berrios in and he gives up none through 5. The bullpen still has to face all those lefties, that we didn't want our pen to face. Maybe they give up the runs. Keeping Berrios in is hoping for a 1-0 win in the fans mind. That's not good game planning either.

 

I can buy it being a different lefty, I can buy it not being Berrios starting. But the jays game plan gave up 2 cheap runs. That is a success. The issue is optics and made up stuff about how it energized the Twins (who would have been energized if they got a s***** single off Berrios too)

 

You are Rays fan....Didn't the whole MLB learn from the Snell debacle??

[Daniel Labude]

Is this bad for a hitter?

 

Rookie (Year 1): 121 wRC+

Year 2: 137 wRC+

Year 3: 115 wRC+

Year 4: 197 wRC+

Year 5: 111 wRC+

[RustyTrombone]

Only non athletes and people who have never played the game would think its a good move.

 

Anyone whos played the game at any sort of competitive level knows the other teams breathes a sigh of relief when a good starter is taken out of the game.

[Terminator]

Yeah I said a couple of weeks ago when criticizing Atkins and this FO that they could have done a better job at improving the defense without sacrificing that much offense. Yet I was attacked by even suggesting that.

 

You really just don't have any clue what you are talking about.

 

The offense was bad, but it was due to underperformance not due to "sacrificing too much offense."

 

The guys Atkins acquired hit or were at least expected to.

-KK had a 104 wRC+.

-Belt was 138 wRC+.

-You act like acquiring Varsho was a purely defensive run prevention move but he had a 107 wRC+ last year and the thought was that he would improve heading into his age 26 season. He's one of the prime underachievers.

 

Then look at who we gave up:

-Teoscar had a 105 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR. Was not missed.

-Gurriel had a 106 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR.

-Gabriel Moreno had 103 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR.

 

So it's not like we shipped out a ton of offense and didn't replace it. All of the above doesn't factor in that we also acquired Swanson who is a good setup man with 3 years of control. Yeah the Varsho move looks like crap now but it wasn't an intentional downgrade of the offense. He projected to hit well but he just didn't do it.

 

Which leads me to my point which is that the real issue is underperformance. The analytics aren't translating to on field production. Vlad, Springer, Varsho, Whit, Kirk and Espinal all severely underperformed this year.

 

So you are just dead wrong. The offense didn't suck because we "sacrificed that much offense." We sucked because we had multiple guys underperform.

[Stangstag]

I thought this organization and FO were brilliant minds though and that we shouldn't question them? That's what I was told by a poster on this board.

 

Literally nobody says that. Your ultimate strawman

[Terminator]

Yeah I said a couple of weeks ago when criticizing Atkins and this FO that they could have done a better job at improving the defense without sacrificing that much offense. Yet I was attacked by even suggesting that.

 

The other thing you are dead wrong about is acquiring more offense at the trade deadline but that's because you can't get it through your head that the actual issue was underperformance.

 

And you're compounding it by making a false assumption.

 

The best bat to move at the deadline was Tommy Pham I believe. You are assuming he actually would have made a difference.

 

But even if we had overpaid for someone else, that likely prevents Schneider from getting a chance and we probably miss the playoffs altogether. You can't just assume that a better bat equals an automatically better offense. A lot of the Buffalo guys came up big down the stretch.

 

Would have trading Tiedemann or Orelvis Martinez for a bat have been worth it? This offense was so bad (again, due to numerous guys underperforming) that I'm not sure it would have been worth it anyway. But you just assume that it would have worked for some reason when that's a tough assumption to make when 6 key players are all underperforming.

[jaysblue]

You really just don't have any clue what you are talking about.

 

The offense was bad, but it was due to underperformance not due to "sacrificing too much offense."

 

The guys Atkins acquired hit or were at least expected to.

-KK had a 104 wRC+.

-Belt was 138 wRC+.

-You act like acquiring Varsho was a purely defensive run prevention move but he had a 107 wRC+ last year and the thought was that he would improve heading into his age 26 season. He's one of the prime underachievers.

 

Then look at who we gave up:

-Teoscar had a 105 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR. Was not missed.

-Gurriel had a 106 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR.

-Gabriel Moreno had 103 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR.

 

So it's not like we shipped out a ton of offense and didn't replace it. All of the above doesn't factor in that we also acquired Swanson who is a good setup man with 3 years of control. Yeah the Varsho move looks like crap now but it wasn't an intentional downgrade of the offense. He projected to hit well but he just didn't do it.

 

Which leads me to my point which is that the real issue is underperformance. The analytics aren't translating to on field production. Vlad, Springer, Varsho, Whit, Kirk and Espinal all severely underperformed this year.

 

So you are just dead wrong. The offense didn't suck because we "sacrificed that much offense." We sucked because we had multiple guys underperform.

 

The Jays traded 50 HR's in Teo and LBJ. That power could have been useful.

 

Belt had a really solid year but he's just a platoon guy. Let's be realistic.

 

As for all those players underperforming, it was a good number. Shouldn't the FO do a better job at evaluating players? If they're so brilliant as some on here make them out to be, you shouldn't have had so many bats underperform as they did.

 

An aging Springer who is past his prime. Was Vladdy really a superstar? Was Varsho really that great of a bat to trade away Moreno for? Was Chapman really a middle-of-the-order guy? Was Kirk's 2022 season or shall I say two hot months more of a mirage? As well, given the severe underperformance from this lineup, why didn't the FO address this issue earlier like in July or before the deadline? And please don't respond with "which bats were dealt at the deadline?" We don't know who else could have been available who wasn't moved.

[Olerud363]

The other thing you are dead wrong about is acquiring more offense at the trade deadline but that's because you can't get it through your head that the actual issue was underperformance.

 

The best bat to move at the deadline was Tommy Pham I believe. That wouldn't have moved the needle.

 

But even if we had overpaid for someone else, or traded for a guy like Pham, that likely prevents Schneider from getting a chance and we probably miss the playoffs altogether.

 

And even if it would have worked out, would have trading Tiedemann or Orelvis Martinez for a bat have been worth it? This offense was so bad (again, due to numerous guys underperforming) that I'm not sure it would have been worth it anyway.

 

Underperformance. The great mystery. Why do the Braves score 900 runs and 300 homers with a lineup that wasn't projected to hit much better than Toronto's? Why do the Twins hit 233 homeruns with guys I never heard of ? Why are number of 380 foot fly balls Vlad hits reduced by 50% since 2 years ago? Underperformance.

 

Anyone working at Rogers upper levels, counting the money and stuff, needs to get Shapiro to get everyone under him to write a 5 page book report on why players under perform and what to do about it. Then same bean counters at Rogers (I don't even know who these guys would be, like Ted Rogers kids and their friends or something?) need to go outside the organizaiton and get some people in baseball to write the same 5 page report.

 

Then they all need to sit at a long table and decide who (if anyone) to fire for next year, and who (if anyone) to hire.

 

Why do player do bad? I don't know. Figure it out Rogers. You love money. You love profit. This will help your money and profit. Do you really want to spend 240 million on s*** like this again?

[Stangstag]

Is this bad for a hitter?

 

Rookie (Year 1): 121 wRC+

Year 2: 137 wRC+

Year 3: 115 wRC+

Year 4: 197 wRC+

Year 5: 111 wRC+

 

That guy plays the OF though

[jaysblue]

Literally nobody says that. Your ultimate strawman

 

Brownie pretty much has said this numerous times but alright!

[Terminator]

The Jays traded 50 HR's in Teo and LBJ. That power could have been useful.

 

 

They were outhit by KK and Belt.

 

Belt had a really solid year but he's just a platoon guy. Let's be realistic.

 

He out WAR'd Teoscar and Gurriel. Do you get how stupid your argument about "we shouldn't have sacrificed so much offense" is now?

 

As for all those players underperforming, it was a good number. Shouldn't the FO do a better job at evaluating players? If they're so brilliant as some on here make them out to be, you shouldn't have had so many bats underperform as they did.

 

An aging Springer who is past his prime. Was Vladdy really a superstar? Was Varsho really that great of a bat to trade away Moreno for? Was Chapman really a middle-of-the-order guy? Was Kirk's 2022 season or shall I say two hot months more of a mirage? As well, given the severe underperformance from this lineup, why didn't the FO address this issue earlier like in July or before the deadline? And please don't respond with "which bats were dealt at the deadline?" We don't know who else could have been available who wasn't moved.

 

Too late I already did.

[Terminator]

Underperformance. The great mystery. Why do the Braves score 900 runs and 300 homers with a lineup that wasn't projected to hit much better than Toronto's? Why do the Twins hit 233 homeruns with guys I never heard of ? Why are number of 380 foot fly balls Vlad hits reduced by 50% since 2 years ago? Underperformance.

 

Anyone working at Rogers upper levels, counting the money and stuff, needs to get Shapiro to get everyone under him to write a 5 page book report on why players under perform and what to do about it. Then same bean counters at Rogers (I don't even know who these guys would be, like Ted Rogers kids and their friends or something?) need to go outside the organizaiton and get some people in baseball to write the same 5 page report.

 

Then they all need to sit at a long table and decide who (if anyone) to fire for next year, and who (if anyone) to hire.

 

Why do player do bad? I don't know. Figure it out Rogers. You love money. You love profit. This will help your money and profit. Do you really want to spend 240 million on s*** like this again?

 

I agree. We need to get why so many offensive players underperformed. If Atkins doesn't have a plan to fix that then he needs to go.

[Stangstag]

I hate that Vladdy shows like 0 remorse for getting picked off there. Immediately pointing for the replay like he didn’t just massively f*** up. The dude has 0 accountability for himself. Doesn’t even hang his head in shame. Doesn’t seem like he even cares.

 

Loser

[jaysblue]

The other thing you are dead wrong about is acquiring more offense at the trade deadline but that's because you can't get it through your head that the actual issue was underperformance.

 

And you're compounding it by making a false assumption.

 

The best bat to move at the deadline was Tommy Pham I believe. You are assuming he actually would have made a difference.

 

But even if we had overpaid for someone else, that likely prevents Schneider from getting a chance and we probably miss the playoffs altogether. You can't just assume that a better bat equals an automatically better offense. A lot of the Buffalo guys came up big down the stretch.

 

Would have trading Tiedemann or Orelvis Martinez for a bat have been worth it? This offense was so bad (again, due to numerous guys underperforming) that I'm not sure it would have been worth it anyway. But you just assume that it would have worked for some reason when that's a tough assumption to make when 6 key players are all underperforming.

 

I knew you were going to pull this out of your hat haha.

 

Tommy Pham would have been a nice addition sure.

 

We can't just go by who was moved at the deadline and assume they were the only bats the Jays could have acquired. I'm sure other bats were available that we don't know of.

 

The window is pretty much closing with this roster. The FO failed this season to capitalize on a strong rotation and bullpen. Sure we have 4 arms back next season, but we can't just assume they all 4 stay all healthy again and pitch at the same high level.

[jaysblue]

They were outhit by KK and Belt.

 

 

 

He out WAR'd Teoscar and Gurriel. Do you get how stupid your argument about "we shouldn't have sacrificed so much offense" is now?

 

 

 

Too late I already did.

 

How is my argument stupid? Atkins traded away one of his top young assets for Varsho, who s*** the bed offensively. Springer is aging and on the decline. Vladdy wasn't the superstar this organization thought he was. Kirk's 2022 season was a mirage. Chapman despite him being a valuable piece, wasn't a middle-of-the-order bat they thought he was. It looks to me as Atkins and this FO really messed up on their player evaluations when constructing this lineup.

 

Belt was great this season and so was KK. But we really got lucky they performed at the level they did. Could have went the other way with one or both of them.

[Stangstag]

How is my argument stupid? Atkins traded away one of his top young assets for Varsho, who s*** the bed offensively. Springer is aging and on the decline. Vladdy wasn't the superstar this organization thought he was. Kirk's 2022 season was a mirage. Chapman despite him being a valuable piece, wasn't a middle-of-the-order bat they thought he was. It looks to me as Atkins and this FO really messed up on their player evaluations when constructing this lineup.

 

Belt was great this season and so was KK. But we really got lucky they performed at the level they did. Could have went the other way with one or both of them.

 

Im not sold on either of those statements. I guess we’ll see next year.

[Daniel Labude]

That guy plays the OF though

 

Trash hitter is what he is

[Olerud363]

The Jays traded 50 HR's in Teo and LBJ. That power could have been useful.

 

Belt had a really solid year but he's just a platoon guy. Let's be realistic.

 

As for all those players underperforming, it was a good number. Shouldn't the FO do a better job at evaluating players? If they're so brilliant as some on here make them out to be, you shouldn't have had so many bats underperform as they did.

 

An aging Springer who is past his prime. Was Vladdy really a superstar? Was Varsho really that great of a bat to trade away Moreno for? Was Chapman really a middle-of-the-order guy? Was Kirk's 2022 season or shall I say two hot months more of a mirage? As well, given the severe underperformance from this lineup, why didn't the FO address this issue earlier like in July or before the deadline? And please don't respond with "which bats were dealt at the deadline?" We don't know who else could have been available who wasn't moved.

 

The underperformance is with comparison to multiple years and thousands of at bats of stats, not just compared to these players at their 'best'.

 

Like Kirk for example. He was good in 2019, 2020 (low sample size), 2021 and 2022. Yes for 3 months of 2022 he hit like prime Edgar Martinez, which may have been over his head, but maybe not considering how good a minor league hitter he was. In 2021 he hit 8 homers in 120 at bats or something. Then loses all his power in 2023?

 

Varsho was a great minor league hitter and even if he has holes in his swing should be able to at the least repeat his 2022.

 

Vlad was like top 5 all time in the history of baseball as an 18, 19 and 22 year old. Even his age 20 season was probably one of the top 20 age 20 seasons of all time (as a hitter) since so few player play 120 games at 20... now at 24 he's battling Ryan Noda?

 

At an age when they should be having their best seasons, multiple players are performing way below what they have in the past.

[max silver]

It didn't work.

 

We're talking about a 0-0 game in the 4th inning, not a 0-0 game in the 7th.

 

My question is even if the Jays won this game or heck won in extra innings, which arms would be available tomorrow?

 

How is my argument stupid? Atkins traded away one of his top young assets for Varsho, who s*** the bed offensively. Springer is aging and on the decline. Vladdy wasn't the superstar this organization thought he was. Kirk's 2022 season was a mirage. Chapman despite him being a valuable piece, wasn't a middle-of-the-order bat they thought he was. It looks to me as Atkins and this FO really messed up on their player evaluations when constructing this lineup.

 

Belt was great this season and so was KK. But we really got lucky they performed at the level they did. Could have went the other way with one or both of them.

 

So the front office got lucky that Belt and KK performed well offensively, but they should have their feet held to the fire for the underperformance of much of the roster holdovers from previous seasons Come on man, if the front office is to blame for the players they already have performing badly how in the world don't they get credit for the newly acquired players who did perform well? Some consistency would be nice.

[Dick_Pole]

Fire the f***ing nerds. Every last one of them. I'm not saying a team doesn't need nerds but the Jays need better ones than the ones they currently have. I've said all year they pull their starting pitchers too early, and it was mostly met with indifference. This game seals it. It's the same dumbass philosophy all year that led to Berrios being pulled in the 4th. I know that it wasn't the Jays biggest problem all year and the offense is to blame but the game might still be going on 0-0 right now. It's low hanging fruit. They've committed nearly $300 million to their veteran starters. f***ing USE them.

 

The good news is that this team has very little in long-term salary commitment. They have a ton of flexibility here.

 

Pitching is fine. Add Tiedemann to the rotation and maybe Manoah. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing Ryu back either if he's cheap. Sign Hicks if you can. Not necessarily the best pitching staff but definitely one of the deepest.

 

Any decent trade scenarios for Bichette, Guerrero and Springer need to be entertained. Keep Varsho and Kirk. Their glaring weaknesses overshadow their hidden value and make them practically worthless as trade bait anyways. QO Chapman. 50-50 chance he takes it and then hope for a Semien like performance. The jobbers dressed up as the team's top prospects aren't ready to come in to starting 3B. Merrifield take it or leave it. Rest of the guys can go. See if they can sign Teoscar to replace Belt as DH. Rotational DH sounds nice but this team isn't built like that. It desperately needs a Nelson Cruz type.

[Stangstag]

So the front office got lucky that Belt and KK performed well offensively, but they should have their feet held to the fire for the underperformance of much of the roster holdovers from previous seasons Come on man, if the front office is to blame for the players they already have performing badly how in the world don't they get credit for the newly acquired players who did perform well? Some consistency would be nice.

 

And he’ll call you a homer for being rational. Clearly you lick Atkins’ nuts

[Masterbather]

Fire the f***ing nerds. Every last one of them. I'm not saying a team doesn't need nerds but the Jays need better ones than the ones they currently have. I've said all year they pull their starting pitchers too early, and it was mostly met with indifference. This game seals it. It's the same dumbass philosophy all year that led to Berrios being pulled in the 4th. I know that it wasn't the Jays biggest problem all year and the offense is to blame but the game might still be going on 0-0 right now. It's low hanging fruit. They've committed nearly $300 million to their veteran starters. f***ing USE them.

 

The good news is that this team has very little in long-term salary commitment. They have a ton of flexibility here.

 

Pitching is fine. Add Tiedemann to the rotation and maybe Manoah. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing Ryu back either if he's cheap. Sign Hicks if you can. Not necessarily the best pitching staff but definitely one of the deepest.

 

Any decent trade scenarios for Bichette, Guerrero and Springer need to be entertained. Keep Varsho and Kirk. Their glaring weaknesses overshadow their hidden value and make them practically worthless as trade bait anyways. QO Chapman. 50-50 chance he takes it and then hope for a Semien like performance. The jobbers dressed up as the team's top prospects aren't ready to come in to starting 3B. Merrifield take it or leave it. Rest of the guys can go. See if they can sign Teoscar to replace Belt as DH. Rotational DH sounds nice but this team isn't built like that. It desperately needs a Nelson Cruz type.

I wanted Guerrero traded last year. I could see what he was and what he was going to be. I knew they didn't have the balls to entertain it, just like they don't have the balls to discipline the f***ing idiot every time he f***s up on the bases

 

I'm so glad his baserunning came back to haunt this team, they so f***ing deserved it for the way they handled him with baby gloves.

[Spanky99]

I'm just happy we have a reliable $130M long reliever in Berrios

 

lol... Gold!

[Spanky99]

Yeah I said a couple of weeks ago when criticizing Atkins and this FO that they could have done a better job at improving the defense without sacrificing that much offense. Yet I was attacked by even suggesting that.

 

*ATTACKED* lol... c'mon man.

[TheHurl]

There is an article on Sportsnet that show why it was the wrong decision even based upon the numbers and wanting to get the lefty bats out. That didn't work either....

 

Well if Sportsnet said it...