Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[Dick_Pole]

Yeah I dunno where all the seller's remorse is coming from on Matz. The guy bookended a pretty mediocre season with a few good starts in April and September to bring up his stats. Comparing Matz and Stripling's career stats you basically have the same pitcher with Stripling coming out slightly ahead and Matz benefitting from recency bias.

[max silver]

Yeah I dunno where all the seller's remorse is coming from on Matz. The guy bookended a pretty mediocre season with a few good starts in April and September to bring up his stats. Comparing Matz and Stripling's career stats you basically have the same pitcher with Stripling coming out slightly ahead and Matz benefitting from recency bias.

 

Matz was pretty damn good in April and May with a FIP of 3.51, had two bad months in June and July with a FIP of 5.03, and then finished with two more very good months in August and September with a FIP of 3.69. This is far more than a few good starts as you are claiming. I won't shed any tears over his departure but if a deal could have been struck with Matz and the front office he would have been a nice piece to have at the back of the rotation. The rotation would have lined up as one of the best in MLB as it did towards the end of the 2021 season. Hopefully the front office can find another low cost high upside starter to try out of the fifth spot again, I just don't see Stripling having much success as a starter over an entire season and Pearson hasn't shown much at the major league level yet.

 

Stripling hasn't had near the amount of success in the American League as Matz just had, and other than an 8 game stretch mid season (an actual handful of starts) he's been absolutely terrible as a Blue Jay.

[wilko]

I think they need to find out what they are going to do with Stripling. Is he a starter? Reliver? Opener?

[L54]

Long man and 6th starter is my guess

[Brownie19]

Long man and 6th starter is my guess

 

Yeah - the plan has to be for him to be the 6th starter IMO.

[Dick_Pole]

Matz was pretty damn good in April and May with a FIP of 3.51, had two bad months in June and July with a FIP of 5.03, and then finished with two more very good months in August and September with a FIP of 3.69. This is far more than a few good starts as you are claiming. I won't shed any tears over his departure but if a deal could have been struck with Matz and the front office he would have been a nice piece to have at the back of the rotation. The rotation would have lined up as one of the best in MLB as it did towards the end of the 2021 season. Hopefully the front office can find another low cost high upside starter to try out of the fifth spot again, I just don't see Stripling having much success as a starter over an entire season and Pearson hasn't shown much at the major league level yet.

 

Stripling hasn't had near the amount of success in the American League as Matz just had, and other than an 8 game stretch mid season (an actual handful of starts) he's been absolutely terrible as a Blue Jay.

 

Yes, all that stuff is fine. But I'm perfectly fine with not giving Matz 1/18.5 or the four year deal he ended up getting. So it's on to the next target.

[Dick_Pole]

If the Jays can only get one more major acquisition, I would hope it's an infielder. This Jays lineup, plus one more bat, I'd be okay with Stripling/Pearson as 5/6. Not thrilled, but I'd rather have it that way than giving a starting role to Espinal and a deeper rotation.

 

My personal order of preference is:

MIF1

SP/RP1

MIF2

SP/RP2

Anything else (OF depth, LH bat)

 

Personally I don't think they get past #2 with a significant improvement over internal options.

[John_Havok]

If the Jays can only get one more major acquisition, I would hope it's an infielder. This Jays lineup, plus one more bat, I'd be okay with Stripling/Pearson as 5/6. Not thrilled, but I'd rather have it that way than giving a starting role to Espinal and a deeper rotation.

 

My personal order of preference is:

MIF1

SP/RP1

MIF2

SP/RP2

Anything else (OF depth, LH bat)

 

Personally I don't think they get past #2 with a significant improvement over internal options.

 

I have the top 2 reversed, I think the pitching is more important if only 1 spot is upgraded... but I have no doubts they are going to get both upgraded.

 

In either case, upgrading MIF1, means MIF2 wont need upgrading since that would then be Espinal. Same with the pitching since a starter getting upgraded pushes one of the depth starter possibilities directly to the pen anyways. I think they're done with the pen for now except for the token minor league signings with ST invites that will happen after the union and owners quit jerking each other off.

[Brownie19]

The question is do you spend big to get MIF1 or SP/RP1 and hope to fill the other internally or by finding the diamond the the rough - or do you split the remaining money and try to plug both holes?

[Terminator]

With regards to Rodon, I like a deal with a lower AAV but a longer term. That might seem a little odd for a guy with his injury history but it gives you more bites at the apple to realize value on the contract. 3-4 years with a vesting option and somewhere in the 15 mil a year range would make sense to me. If you could get him to remain moderately healthy (say he averages 120 IP a year on that deal) it could pay off big.

[Dick_Pole]

With regards to Rodon, I like a deal with a lower AAV but a longer term. That might seem a little odd for a guy with his injury history but it gives you more bites at the apple to realize value on the contract. 3-4 years with a vesting option and somewhere in the 15 mil a year range would make sense to me. If you could get him to remain moderately healthy (say he averages 120 IP a year on that deal) it could pay off big.

 

I'm not sure if a vesting option would apply here. If the option vests - meaning he's healthy enough to pitch to earn it - almost certainly he would rather opt for free agency rather than $15 million. I just don't see a path that makes sense for either a team or himself other than a 1 year contract. A multi-year contract is too risky IMO unless the AAV is super cheap and I don't think he would go for that.

[Dick_Pole]

I have the top 2 reversed, I think the pitching is more important if only 1 spot is upgraded... but I have no doubts they are going to get both upgraded.

 

In either case, upgrading MIF1, means MIF2 wont need upgrading since that would then be Espinal. Same with the pitching since a starter getting upgraded pushes one of the depth starter possibilities directly to the pen anyways. I think they're done with the pen for now except for the token minor league signings with ST invites that will happen after the union and owners quit jerking each other off.

 

Personally I think Stripling/Pearson as #5 is less egregious than Biggio and Espinal as starters. You're right about MIF2, when typing that out I was thinking more along the lines of a trade where one or both are likely shipped out as part of the package.

[John_Havok]

Personally I think Stripling/Pearson as #5 is less egregious than Biggio and Espinal as starters. You're right about MIF2, when typing that out I was thinking more along the lines of a trade where one or both are likely shipped out as part of the package.

 

So much of the MIF conversation depends on Moreno and whether or not they feel he has a shot at sticking at 3b to start the year IMO. Assuming no service time related changes in the CBA... maybe they keep him down for a couple weeks to gain the extra year and worry about Super 2 later. That, of course, assumes he is truly ready for 3b. We don't know that at all. IF that's true and he is ready, that solves the MIF problem and Biggio will be the primary 2b with Espinal the jack of all trades backup.

 

At this point I have very little confidence that Pearson/Stripling will be an adequate 5th man rotation option. Pearson's innings will be so limited even if he is effective, and Stripling just hasn't shown enough that he belongs in the rotation IMO. Yes, if Pearson throws to his talents, He and Strip could be a viable piggyback option for a while, but there's no way that could last all season.

 

I'd be more comfortable signing Kikuchi as the 5, letting Pearson work his s*** out in AAA and be the first man up if needed. If he doesn't work his s*** out as a starter, then I think it's about time to cut bait and send him to the pen full time and see if he can be truly effective there throwing 100mph+ for 1 inning at a time.

[Brownie19]

I'm not sure if a vesting option would apply here. If the option vests - meaning he's healthy enough to pitch to earn it - almost certainly he would rather opt for free agency rather than $15 million. I just don't see a path that makes sense for either a team or himself other than a 1 year contract. A multi-year contract is too risky IMO unless the AAV is super cheap and I don't think he would go for that.

 

I'm pretty sure no vesting option has been picked up by both parties in the last 20 years. They are essentially useless - make it a club option.

[Terminator]

I'm pretty sure no vesting option has been picked up by both parties in the last 20 years. They are essentially useless - make it a club option.

 

You are confusing vesting and mutual options.

[Terminator]

I'm not sure if a vesting option would apply here. If the option vests - meaning he's healthy enough to pitch to earn it - almost certainly he would rather opt for free agency rather than $15 million. I just don't see a path that makes sense for either a team or himself other than a 1 year contract. A multi-year contract is too risky IMO unless the AAV is super cheap and I don't think he would go for that.

 

Well maybe vesting option isn't the way to go unless it was high. As for a long term deal, it would just depend on where his head is at. If he can't get a QO for 18 Mil then perhaps a 4 year deal in the 50 million range would be really enticing for him.

[jerb]

 

Jeff Passan

@JeffPassan

 

Details from the tick-tock of baseball's free agent frenzy:

 

- Toronto was very much in on Corey Seager

- The Mets were hoping to get Kevin Gausman AND Max Scherzer

- Detroit was heavy on Marcus Semien before pivoting to Javier Baez

 

Plenty more at ESPN+:

https://t.co/LFZH2LhuXD

[Brownie19]

You are confusing vesting and mutual options.

 

yes I am. I am dumn and will go sit in the corner.

[L54]

Corey Seager would’ve been such a sexy signing

[max silver]

Corey Seager would’ve been such a sexy signing

 

I wonder if Semien and Seager were the front office's two preferred targets, and they set a limit on what they would sign Semien for as they intended to pivot towards a Seager signing instead of opening the wallet for Semien. It sucks that the f***ing Rangers scooped up both guys though. If Seager was a possibility it makes me wonder if Correa could be a potential target as well.

[Ray]

Always thought that we hit the limit when it comes to substantial long term contracts on the books because they want to save money for extending Bo/Vlad ($470M is committed to a combination of Springer, Ryu, Gausman, and Berrios). But if the Seager news is true, seems like we were cleared to have one more mega contract. I really doubt they went into the Seager negotiations without the clearance to commit to $250M at least.

 

Obviously that bodes incredibly well for extending Bo and Vlad, but this might mean there may be a legitimate shot for us to sign one of Correa/Story/Freeman/Bryant. Maybe there was something to the Freeman rumours after all? If Vlad can truly handle 3B, then Freeman really is the perfect fit.

 

Imagine saying even 3 years ago that we’d have the spending power of a legitimate big market team? Mark Shapiro and Ed Rogers are not f***ing around.

[Brownie19]

Could also mean we have no shot at extending Bo/Vlad because they don't seem like the types to settle for security (since they are not exactly coming from poor backgrounds) and we want to maximize their inexpensive years in terms of the window that we have.

 

Yeah - how about we don't think like that and never mention that possibility again. Thanks.

[wilko]

Could also mean we have no shot at extending Bo/Vlad because they don't seem like the types to settle for security (since they are not exactly coming from poor backgrounds) and we want to maximize their inexpensive years in terms of the window that we have.

 

What the f*** did you just say!?

[L54]

I would give Vlad the Tatis contract tomorrow

[glory]

Could also mean we have no shot at extending Bo/Vlad because they don't seem like the types to settle for security (since they are not exactly coming from poor backgrounds) and we want to maximize their inexpensive years in terms of the window that we have.

 

I don't know if that's true or not, but if they add another big FA contract that extends past 2025, then you might be on to something. Right now, the combo of Gausman, Springer, and Berrios will make $63.5m combined in 2026. Of course, Gausman and Springer come off the books right after that, and Berrios has a player option after that, but tack on another $25m AAV deal on top of that (ex. Bryant), and you're looking at nearly $90m for 4 players in their 30's in 2026 without even factoring anyone else. I think they are fine after Gausman, but one more big FA deal, and it gets a bit tight financially, depending on what the CBA looks like.

[Jimcanuck]

There will be ways to reduce payroll to fit Vlad and Bo into the budget later. I suspect that at least 1 of them is going to bolt to free agency. Quite unlikely both sign long term extensions.

[Spanky99]

According to Passan on Tim and Friends... The Jays got it together, plus Syndergaard was almost a Jay, first team to add a million got him, Angels replied first. f***! Syndergaard and Seager were very impressed with Toronto's pitch to land them. Still in on Freeland, but the Yanks or Dodgers will get him cause of money, if he decides to leave Atlanta.

 

Birds are spending man.

[Jimcanuck]

ZIPS today on Matt Boyd

 

Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP

Matthew Boyd L 31 9 10 4.39 27 27 149.7 143 73 25 43 163 4.22

 

If the arm is healthy, a nice target

[Jays24]

According to Passan on Tim and Friends... The Jays got it together, plus Syndergaard was almost a Jay, first team to add a million got him, Angels replied first. f***! Syndergaard and Seager were very impressed with Toronto's pitch to land them. Still in on Freeland, but the Yanks or Dodgers will get him cause of money, if he decides to leave Atlanta.

 

Birds are spending man.

 

That's great news for how the rest of free agency can go. Texas f***ed up free agency by giving out the contracts they did. Like I've been saying all along, I am extremely confident that we will be adding a difference maker in the infield.

 

Now I'm curious if we could have signed Syndargard and gotten Gausman because that would put us in the mix for the remaining starters out there.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Geez. Too bad they just missed on Thor. Dammit

 

If they were after Seager, I wonder if they're also after Correa now.