Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[connorp]

Who wouldn’t give the guy $300m tomorrow?

[John_Havok]

Who wouldn’t give the guy $300m tomorrow?

 

You mean Vlad?

[wamco]

I saw whispers that jays may be granted 2022 demotion options on merryweather. Anyone hear any clarification?

[G-Snarls]

You mean Vlad?

 

I sure would

 

He could be the best hitter in the AL for a decade

[John_Havok]

I saw whispers that jays may be granted 2022 demotion options on merryweather. Anyone hear any clarification?

 

It’s about how they calculate years of service and option seasons. Clarification is at https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2021/12/14/11163918/will-2022-be-julian-merryweathers-first-season-of-service-with-the-blue-jays

[John_Havok]

I sure would

 

He could be the best hitter in the AL for a decade

 

Wouldn’t need to give him 300 million though. 10/250 is probably enough to get it done. No need to overpay for his arb years and I wouldn’t even want to come close to Tatis Jrs extension

[connorp]

Wouldn’t need to give him 300 million though. 10/250 is probably enough to get it done. No need to overpay for his arb years and I wouldn’t even want to come close to Tatis Jrs extension

 

I’m not sure it would bro. I can’t see taking that as his agent.

[L54]

No way Vlad is signing for 10/250M.

 

I have no problem with the team committing 300M+ to him. Vlad is going to mash for a long time

[Ehjays]

Wouldn’t need to give him 300 million though. 10/250 is probably enough to get it done. No need to overpay for his arb years and I wouldn’t even want to come close to Tatis Jrs extension

 

If 250 for 10 was enough to get him to sign, Im sure the Jays would have had him signed by now.I think its gonna be higher as well. The kid is gonna be 26 when he is a free agent. He is gonna get paid, and well.

[Ryu In My House]

I don't see the point in giving him 12-years, 800M or whatever. He will sign where the money is, regardless. I would rather wait, and hope that he doesn't succumb to catastrophic injury, weight issue, etc.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't see the point in giving him 12-years, 800M or whatever. He will sign where the money is, regardless. I would rather wait, and hope that he doesn't succumb to catastrophic injury, weight issue, etc.

 

The longer they wait, the less likely he signs an extension, and assuming continued elite performance which is very likely given his skills, the more expensive he will get.

 

It's a calculus both sides need to make, but no way Vlad signs for 10/250. He's north of 10/300 at this point.

 

It may well be that after the CBA matter is resolved, and the terms are known, the Jays will make a push to extend him and Bo long term.

[glory]

Tatis got 14/340. My guess is that's what Vlad's reps will use as a starting point on a deal, and they have no reason to settle for less since he has 4 non-cheap years of arbitration remaining. So even if he goes year to year, he's going to be making pretty decent money over the next 4 years and then can line himself up for a massive 10+ year deal at age 26.

 

A 14 year deal would take Vlad through age 36. If you want to use Miguel Cabrera as a comparison, his last great season was at age 33, and he began to fall of a cliff at age 34. So if you assume Vlad's decline begins around the same time, then there would be a few dead money years at the end, but having him for his entire prime would likely more than make up for it.

[Spanky99]

I don't see the point in giving him 12-years, 800M or whatever. He will sign where the money is, regardless. I would rather wait, and hope that he doesn't succumb to catastrophic injury, weight issue, etc.

 

800M... Da Fuq???

[Stangstag]

Tatis got 14/340. My guess is that's what Vlad's reps will use as a starting point on a deal, and they have no reason to settle for less since he has 4 non-cheap years of arbitration remaining. So even if he goes year to year, he's going to be making pretty decent money over the next 4 years and then can line himself up for a massive 10+ year deal at age 26.

 

A 14 year deal would take Vlad through age 36. If you want to use Miguel Cabrera as a comparison, his last great season was at age 33, and he began to fall of a cliff at age 34. So if you assume Vlad's decline begins around the same time, then there would be a few dead money years at the end, but having him for his entire prime would likely more than make up for it.

 

14 years is extremely scary for a player that can hit and not much else. What 10 plus year deals have worked out so far? Maybe Arod and that’s it?

 

Gotta think with the head and not the heart here

[max silver]

14 years is extremely scary for a player that can hit and not much else. What 10 plus year deals have worked out so far? Maybe Arod and that’s it?

 

Gotta think with the head and not the heart here

 

I agree that 14 years is pretty crazy but the man is a generational talent and easily the best player the Jays have produced in their entire history. Let's not sell Vlad so short here, he's far from a bat only player. He's well on his way to becoming a plus defender at first base and he has improved on the bases quite a bit as well as his sprint speed has improved. It looks like he's busting his ass again in off season workouts so he is likely to continue to improve his defensive quickness and speed on the bases further.

[The_DH]

Does 1b really count as a defensive position of value? And Vlad's father was toast at 35 or so. I don't see him outlasting his father. Same as Prince Fielder.

[John_Havok]

14 years is extremely scary for a player that can hit and not much else. What 10 plus year deals have worked out so far? Maybe Arod and that’s it?

 

Gotta think with the head and not the heart here

 

Yeah, that's kinda where I'm at. Admittedly though, part of the hesitation on my part is due to what Vlad looked like in years 1 and 2, out of shape and unmotivated. Year 3 he flipped the script. Am I 100% certain that year 3 is going to be repeated for the next 14 years through age 37?

 

Hell no. For the next 10? Moreso, but still not entirely convinced. plus he plays 1b. If he was a 3B of even average defense, I'd be more amenable to putting out long term and dollars. 1B/DH isn't a great investment on a possible 30 million dollar AAV.

 

he has arbitration through 2025. Lets assume he hits somewhere between years 1+2 and 3. So not quite MVP caliber but easily All Star level. 10 million this year, turns to 15 in 2023, 20 2024 and likely topping 25 million in 2025. Even without an extension, you're already looking at 4 years and 70 million to keep Vlad for the next 4 years. adding 6 years at 30 million AAV is 180 million. ... hence 10 years, 250 million. make it 35 million AAV and youre at 10 years 280 million.

 

Beyond 10 years for Vlad is pretty silly given his defensive position. therefore a 10/250-280 seems entirely reasonable and no need to push past 300

[Brownie19]

A 14 year deal would take Vlad through age 36. If you want to use Miguel Cabrera as a comparison, his last great season was at age 33, and he began to fall of a cliff at age 34.

 

And Vlad's father was toast at 35 or so. I don't see him outlasting his father. Same as Prince Fielder.

 

I really don't understand this line of thinking. You cherry pick one player and base your comparison on that? Can't I simply say David Ortiz and Nelly Cruz to cancel out your examples and we're squarely back into the "well, I have no f***ing idea how he's going to age as a player" mindset - which is exactly where we should all be?

[John_Havok]

I really don't understand this line of thinking. You cherry pick one player and base your comparison on that? Can't I simply say David Ortiz and Nelly Cruz to cancel out your examples and we're squarely back into the "well, I have no f***ing idea how he's going to age as a player" mindset - which is exactly where we should all be?

 

You could, but that would be using the same flawed argument, so would still be equally invalid.

 

 

The better kind of question would be.... 10 years ago, would you have given Nelson Cruz a 10 year full market value deal thinking he would still be productive as a 40 year old or would you not... because you'd likely think his productions would decline due to a normal aging curve like most other players?

 

I think I know the answer.

 

The two situations of course are not the same since Vlad is 23, not 30. But using normal aging curves, it's a reasonable expectation that Vlad's production will start to decline around 33. It's not overly prudent to base your contract offer around hoping that he will be the exception rather than the rule.

[glory]

I really don't understand this line of thinking. You cherry pick one player and base your comparison on that? Can't I simply say David Ortiz and Nelly Cruz to cancel out your examples and we're squarely back into the "well, I have no f***ing idea how he's going to age as a player" mindset - which is exactly where we should all be?

 

Ortiz and Cruz both kind of had some help in the aging process, but of course no one knows the answer to "when will Vlad decline". I was just taking a player who he's been compared to as a hitter and used that as a quick example. Vlad could decline at 34, 28, 39, or any number of ages. Who the heck knows. I think somewhere between 32-35 is a safe bet, though.

[Ehjays]

Does 1b really count as a defensive position of value? And Vlad's father was toast at 35 or so. I don't see him outlasting his father. Same as Prince Fielder.

 

Maybe he was toast by 35 due to the fact that he was busy creating the next generations all-star team with 5 different women.

[Jimcanuck]

Vlad Sr was hobbled by bad knees - can blame Olympic Stadium?

 

Vlad Jr has had knee issues already, so maybe add genes as a contributor to the above.

 

Jr is soon to be 23, an extension up to 12 yrs is a reasonable risk. If he goes the way of Fielder, there's insurance for that.

[Ryu In My House]

The longer they wait, the less likely he signs an extension, and assuming continued elite performance which is very likely given his skills, the more expensive he will get.

 

It's a calculus both sides need to make, but no way Vlad signs for 10/250. He's north of 10/300 at this point.

 

It may well be that after the CBA matter is resolved, and the terms are known, the Jays will make a push to extend him and Bo long term.

 

I think if they give him the most money when it is time, he will sign. Let him perform into a big contract over a few years. If the Jays are really one of the big boys, $$$ when the time comes shouldn't be scary.

[Jimcanuck]

I think if they give him the most money when it is time, he will sign. Let him perform into a big contract over a few years. If the Jays are really one of the big boys, $$$ when the time comes shouldn't be scary.

 

You are suggesting let Vlad go to free agency, don't do any negotiations until then?

[Ryu In My House]

You are suggesting let Vlad go to free agency, don't do any negotiations until then?

 

No I am not. Maybe in the last year or two, give him the $$$ via extension. Or not. Depending on the new CBA. But between now and then, put that money towards other needs.

 

You are thinking too black and white. It is not a case of giving him $1B NOW or doing nothing until FA. Somewhere in the middle is the answer that mitigates risk significantly.

[Jimcanuck]

No I am not. Maybe in the last year or two, give him the $$$ via extension. Or not. Depending on the new CBA. But between now and then, put that money towards other needs.

 

You are thinking too black and white. It is not a case of giving him $1B NOW or doing nothing until FA. Somewhere in the middle is the answer that mitigates risk significantly.

 

You said "give him the most money when its time". No one knows what other teams would offer unless Vlad went to FA.

 

And no, I am not thinking too black and white. Whatever gives you that idea?

[Ryu In My House]

You said "give him the most money when its time". No one knows what other teams would offer unless Vlad went to FA.

 

And no, I am not thinking too black and white. Whatever gives you that idea?

 

Mostly your comments. Didn't you suggest we sign him now? Maybe that was someone else. But then you implied that I want to wait until FA. Those would be two, black and white, options. Unless you are not on the sign-him-now bandwagon. In which case I think we are on the same page.

[Jimcanuck]

Mostly your comments. Didn't you suggest we sign him now? Maybe that was someone else. But then you implied that I want to wait until FA. Those would be two, black and white, options. Unless you are not on the sign-him-now bandwagon. In which case I think we are on the same page.

 

I think the Jays should start trying to sign him after the lockout, and keep trying for the duration he is under control. It's only going to get harder and more expensive to extend him, the longer it takes.

 

They have probably already had preliminary discussions, anyway.

[L54]

Extending Vlad would be like shopping for a Ferrari

 

Nobody is giving you a deal. You're shopping at the top of the market. You're paying sticker price but very few people have one

 

Lots of discussion on the potential negatives like his health and his position on the defensive spectrum but in my opinion it's more likely you're controlling the next 12 years of a perennial MVP candidate.

 

Not every deal needs to be full of surplus value for it to make sense

[AdamGreenwood]

14 years is extremely scary for a player that can hit and not much else. What 10 plus year deals have worked out so far? Maybe Arod and that’s it?

 

Gotta think with the head and not the heart here

 

Votto looks like it will likely work out.

Jeter's 10 year deal worked out for the Yankees.

Dave Winfield's contract worked out.

 

There haven't really been that many 10-year deals, and most of them are just getting started.