Jays 2021/22 General Off-Season Discussion

[jerb]

 

Josh Goldberg

@JGoldberg12

 

Very interesting... Ken Rosenthal said that before they got Renfroe, the Brewers talked to the Jays about a JBJ-Grichuk 1 for 1 trade.

 

I would have enjoyed that...

 

https://t.co/HLIIsc8XRR

[glory]

Grichuk for JBJ made a lot of sense, and was just about salary neutral. Even if you hate JBJ, he's LH, can play CF at a high level, and is likely going to bounce back offensively after this s*** season. A much better 4th OF fit for this roster, although Charlie would have found a way to play him everyday, I'm sure.

[The_DH]

Grichuk for JBJ made a lot of sense, and was just about salary neutral. Even if you hate JBJ, he's LH, can play CF at a high level, and is likely going to bounce back offensively after this s*** season. A much better 4th OF fit for this roster, although Charlie would have found a way to play him everyday, I'm sure.

 

Though dollars are close enough, JBJ is effectively a one year contract, Grichuk 2. I would totally have done that trade.

[max silver]

Grichuk for JBJ made a lot of sense, and was just about salary neutral. Even if you hate JBJ, he's LH, can play CF at a high level, and is likely going to bounce back offensively after this s*** season. A much better 4th OF fit for this roster, although Charlie would have found a way to play him everyday, I'm sure.

 

I would have been less than thrilled about a Jackie Bradley Jr. acquisition. It's hard to fathom just how bad he was offensively last season. As frustrating as Grichuk was for a good chunk of 2021 Bradley Jr. was far worse. For players who received a minimum 400 plate appearances last season JBJ was the worst with a 35 WRC+ and produced the lowest WAR at -0.8 WAR. I think the only benefit would have been the fact that JBJ has one less year remaining on his contract, so if he were brought aboard and continued being terrible he could simply be released with the Jays only on the hook for one year of his salary vs. the 2 years remaining for Grichuk.

[Grant77]

JBJ is a sunk cost that we would probably release. Grichuk is a negative contract, but he has value beyond the ~3.5 million difference in salaries. If they also threw in those two prospects then we may have something to think about, but I'm still not sure.

[Eat My Shatkins]

The Twins are trash, Taylor Rogers is an elite reliever and this is his last year of control.

 

They should trade him for a younger, controllable reliever with upside and maybe a wild card type prospect.

 

Basically I'm saying I hope the Jays trade for him. Maybe Borucki and a guy like Murray or Pardhino?

[Grant77]

The Twins are trash, Taylor Rogers is an elite reliever and this is his last year of control.

 

They should trade him for a younger, controllable reliever with upside and maybe a wild card type prospect.

 

Basically I'm saying I hope the Jays trade for him. Maybe Borucki and a guy like Murray or Pardhino?

 

I would do that, but they won't.

[Eat My Shatkins]

I would do that, but they won't.

 

Yeah I'm no trade proposal guru, but I doubt they can expect too much for 1 year of a reliever.

 

Maybe there is better ways to upgrade the bullpen, but Rogers would be an amazing fit for the Jays right now.

 

Borucki has shown flashes, he has great stuff. Maybe the Jays take the patient route with him. He's dirt cheap, and still under control until 2025.

 

Relievers are volatile anyways. It's possible Borucki has a better year than Rogers when you factor in injuries and what not.

[connorp]

The Twins are trash, Taylor Rogers is an elite reliever and this is his last year of control.

 

They should trade him for a younger, controllable reliever with upside and maybe a wild card type prospect.

 

Basically I'm saying I hope the Jays trade for him. Maybe Borucki and a guy like Murray or Pardhino?

 

He should’ve been in Berrios trade

[Jimcanuck]

He should’ve been in Berrios trade

 

Would have cost us more. Jays probably tried.

[jerb]

[wilko]

 

Josh Goldberg

@JGoldberg12

 

Very interesting... Ken Rosenthal said that before they got Renfroe, the Brewers talked to the Jays about a JBJ-Grichuk 1 for 1 trade.

 

I would have enjoyed that...

 

https://t.co/HLIIsc8XRR

 

That's interesting. Would have been a huge upgrade for D in the OF/bench. His season was terrible last year though and I wonder if he's cooked...

[max silver]

JBJ is a sunk cost that we would probably release. Grichuk is a negative contract, but he has value beyond the ~3.5 million difference in salaries. If they also threw in those two prospects then we may have something to think about, but I'm still not sure.

 

I recalled that Grichuk's numbers for the season were largely propped up by a hot start to the season, where he produced a respectable 113 WRC+, which was followed by an extended stretch of futility. I decided to do a different comparison between the two, comparing their numbers over the last 4 months of the season after Grichuk had cooled off. It turned out that Grichuk was actually less valuable than JBJ during this stretch of games.

 

From June until the end of the season in 252 plate appearances JBJ produced a 39 WRC+ but only was worth -0.3 WAR as he provided value defensively and on the bases. Comparatively in 337 plate appearances Grichuk produced a 66 WRC+ and was worth -0.5 WAR. A trade of these two players if this performances were to continue would have potentially been a pretty even deal for both sides, but Milwaukee would have been ending up with an extra year of a terrible player vs the single year that they would have been stuck with otherwise.

[Ryu In My House]

Great (IMO) article on three trade routes the Jays can do after the lockout that would cost ~ 24M and meet most of their needs for 2022.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/three-roadmaps-addressing-blue-jays-remaining-off-season-needs/

[Grant77]

I recalled that Grichuk's numbers for the season were largely propped up by a hot start to the season, where he produced a respectable 113 WRC+, which was followed by an extended stretch of futility. I decided to do a different comparison between the two, comparing their numbers over the last 4 months of the season after Grichuk had cooled off. It turned out that Grichuk was actually less valuable than JBJ during this stretch of games.

 

From June until the end of the season in 252 plate appearances JBJ produced a 39 WRC+ but only was worth -0.3 WAR as he provided value defensively and on the bases. Comparatively in 337 plate appearances Grichuk produced a 66 WRC+ and was worth -0.5 WAR. A trade of these two players if this performances were to continue would have potentially been a pretty even deal for both sides, but Milwaukee would have been ending up with an extra year of a terrible player vs the single year that they would have been stuck with otherwise.

 

I'm always skeptical of comparisons where we just cherry pick part of a season. Grichuk is hot and cold, we kind of expected this.

 

Bradley has that ugly 8 million dollar buyout, so the difference in reality is only about 3 million.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Grant77

[Grant77]

Great (IMO) article on three trade routes the Jays can do after the lockout that would cost ~ 24M and meet most of their needs for 2022.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/three-roadmaps-addressing-blue-jays-remaining-off-season-needs/

 

Interesting article. I'll try my hand at it with different players just for fun.

 

Sign: Carlos Rodon 1/25

 

I don't think he gets that much, but we'll play by the rules. A 1 year contract for the rotation is ideal.

 

Trade: Brian Anderson and Anthony Bass for Randal Grichuk and Alejandro Kirk.

 

Anderson is seemingly more available after they added Wendle. Catcher/DH and outfield are both areas of need for the Marlins.

 

Sign: Ian Kennedy or David Robertson (1/3)

 

Both still have their velocity and good K/BB ratios. Relievers are such a crapshoot though.

Edited December 3, 2021 by Grant77

[wamco]

I speculate they have about 32m left

To spend rather than 25.

 

8 man pen this year , we have our top 5 set.

Merryweather and borucki out of options makes 6,7. Do we go into a season where we don’t have the 8th man as someone who can be a revolving door for aaa guys?

If so, I’d think borucki is traded this off-season if we sign a sp or rp. Stripling needs accounted for. Pearson to aaa I presume if a sp is signed.

[Ehjays]

Interesting article. I'll try my hand at it with different players just for fun.

 

Sign: Carlos Rodon 1/25

 

I don't think he gets that much, but we'll play by the rules. A 1 year contract for the rotation is ideal.

 

Trade: Brian Anderson and Anthony Bass for Randal Grichuk and Alejandro Kirk.

 

Anderson is seemingly more available after they added Wendle. Catcher/DH and outfield are both areas of need for the Marlins.

 

Sign: Ian Kennedy or David Robertson (1/3)

 

Both still have their velocity and good K/BB ratios. Relievers are such a crapshoot though.

 

I like your thinking with Rodon, and he might too, this is a good team to build value with. I just hate the Anthony Bass part.

[John_Havok]

I like your thinking with Rodon, and he might too, this is a good team to build value with. I just hate the Anthony Bass part.

 

I think the market on Rodon is softer than we realize. He had a fairly obvious velocity drop in the second half of last season, and combining that with his very recent and prolonged injury history teams are probably very wary of signing him for high dollar figures.

 

He might be a prime 1 year pillow guy that signs for well below what others of his skill range do because of that. Him expecting a 20 million-ish dollar AAV for even 1 year would be extremely surprising to me.

 

The skillset it there for sure, but I doubt there's many teams looking at multiyear deals for this guy despite the obvious skill. And if they are looking at multiyear deals, the AAV wont be what it could be.

[FantasyNewb]

Interesting article. I'll try my hand at it with different players just for fun.

 

Sign: Carlos Rodon 1/25

 

I don't think he gets that much, but we'll play by the rules. A 1 year contract for the rotation is ideal.

 

Trade: Brian Anderson and Anthony Bass for Randal Grichuk and Alejandro Kirk.

 

Anderson is seemingly more available after they added Wendle. Catcher/DH and outfield are both areas of need for the Marlins.

 

Sign: Ian Kennedy or David Robertson (1/3)

 

Both still have their velocity and good K/BB ratios. Relievers are such a crapshoot though.

 

There's no way you'd trade Kirk for anything close to that deal. I don't know why people are so willing to give up a 23 year old catcher who's projecting for a 125 wRC+ next year. I get that we have Moreno, but nothing is guaranteed. If he's not a part of a package for a Ketel Marte or a J Ram, keep him.

[Ehjays]

I think the market on Rodon is softer than we realize. He had a fairly obvious velocity drop in the second half of last season, and combining that with his very recent and prolonged injury history teams are probably very wary of signing him for high dollar figures.

 

He might be a prime 1 year pillow guy that signs for well below what others of his skill range do because of that. Him expecting a 20 million-ish dollar AAV for even 1 year would be extremely surprising to me.

 

The skillset it there for sure, but I doubt there's many teams looking at multiyear deals for this guy despite the obvious skill. And if they are looking at multiyear deals, the AAV wont be what it could be.

 

I really like him as our 5th SP but not at 25 or anything above 20. White Sox know him and his health records better than anyone and they didnt extend a QO

[John_Havok]

I really like him as our 5th SP but not at 25 or anything above 20. White Sox know him and his health records better than anyone and they didnt extend a QO

 

Exactly. I mean, any deal of course would be pending a physical, but the fact they didn't even want him at 18 and a half for 1 year speaks volumes.

[Grant77]

I like your thinking with Rodon, and he might too, this is a good team to build value with. I just hate the Anthony Bass part.

 

I just threw him in there for salary balancing purposes. I liked him as a multi inning guy before the 7th inning or something and he succeeded as a closer, but I wouldn't trust him there again.

[Krylian]

There's no way you'd trade Kirk for anything close to that deal. I don't know why people are so willing to give up a 23 year old catcher who's projecting for a 125 wRC+ next year. I get that we have Moreno, but nothing is guaranteed. If he's not a part of a package for a Ketel Marte or a J Ram, keep him.

 

I'm sure part of it is because Kirk has a terrible body and people are worried it's eventually going to catch up with him.

[Brownie19]

Interesting article. I'll try my hand at it with different players just for fun.

 

Sign: Carlos Rodon 1/25

 

I don't think he gets that much, but we'll play by the rules. A 1 year contract for the rotation is ideal.

 

Trade: Brian Anderson and Anthony Bass for Randal Grichuk and Alejandro Kirk.

 

Anderson is seemingly more available after they added Wendle. Catcher/DH and outfield are both areas of need for the Marlins.

 

Sign: Ian Kennedy or David Robertson (1/3)

 

Both still have their velocity and good K/BB ratios. Relievers are such a crapshoot though.

 

Marlins already traded for Stallings. I wonder if Kirk still interests them. I don't really know what Bryan Anderson is. Only 2 years of control. I think I'd need more back in return. Anderson and Edward Cabrera would be a lot more interesting...although we might have to sweeten our side.

[Grant77]

Marlins already traded for Stallings. I wonder if Kirk still interests them. I don't really know what Bryan Anderson is. Only 2 years of control. I think I'd need more back in return. Anderson and Edward Cabrera would be a lot more interesting...although we might have to sweeten our side.

 

I'd normally say no, but I think they would be all over Kirk with the universal DH. Stallings is 32 and hardly a long term solution for them and they don't have any catcher prospects knocking on the door.

 

Anderson is still a bit of an unknown quantity, but he's solid defensively and should be far cheaper than a guy like Chapman. I don't know that we need more than a 2 year player anyways if we keep Groshans and Martinez.

[Ehjays]

Marlins already traded for Stallings. I wonder if Kirk still interests them. I don't really know what Bryan Anderson is. Only 2 years of control. I think I'd need more back in return. Anderson and Edward Cabrera would be a lot more interesting...although we might have to sweeten our side.

 

You WILL have to sweeten your side if you want Cabrera as well. I would do that in a heart beat

[jerb]

 

High Heat Stats

@HighHeatStats

 

31 years ago today, the MLB trade featuring the highest average player value in a trade of 4+ players:

 

Padres get Fred McGriff (52 WAR) & Tony Fernandez (45 WAR) while Blue Jays get Roberto Alomar (67 WAR) & Joe Carter (19 WAR).

 

That average of 46 WAR per player is insane.

[Key22]

I'm sure part of it is because Kirk has a terrible body and people are worried it's eventually going to catch up with him.

 

It's baseball - a great body isn't all that needed - Kirby Pucket, Ryu, Panda, David Wells, Colon, --- a lot of "el tubbos" who were quite respectable MLB players. Granted, Kirk is a catcher - Let's call him Pudge - worked for the Rangers.

[Krylian]

It's baseball - a great body isn't all that needed - Kirby Pucket, Ryu, Panda, David Wells, Colon, --- a lot of "el tubbos" who were quite respectable MLB players. Granted, Kirk is a catcher - Let's call him Pudge - worked for the Rangers.

 

Those are exceptions to the rule. If you're a betting man, as a general rule, the math says that a bad body is a significant detriment. Could Kirk become a star? Sure. But it will be tougher for him to become one (and stay healthy) if his physical stature remains similar.