Offseason Roster Thread (2020-2021)

[Brownie19]

Yup. They sold their window for a championship. Can't really fault them for that but it definitely wasn't the model of sustainability.

 

Eloy for Quintana

Torres for two months of Chapman

Soler for a year of Davis

Broke the bank for Heyward

 

It's sexy to see your team making splashes and bringing in big names, but it can catch up to you real quick. The Jays don't need to boost payroll by 70M just because they can.

 

All fair points, but I think the key remains that you can't swing and miss too much. Heyward and Quintana were big misses.

 

Eloy and Torres don't get moved for Quintana and Chapman these days (funny how quickly that changed).

[Laika]

All fair points, but I think the key remains that you can't swing and miss too much. Heyward and Quintana were big misses.

 

Eloy and Torres don't get moved for Quintana and Chapman these days (funny how quickly that changed).

 

I dunno, those type of trades will still happen. Hindsight just makes some of them look horrendous.

 

The White Sox just traded six years of a SP who projects for 2.4 fWAR in 2020 for one year of a SP who will make $9M and projects for 3.2 fWAR in 2020. Imagine how bad that trade will look if Dane Dunning improves?

[Grant77]

Yup. They sold their window for a championship. Can't really fault them for that but it definitely wasn't the model of sustainability.

 

Eloy for Quintana

Torres for two months of Chapman

Soler for a year of Davis

Broke the bank for Heyward

 

It's sexy to see your team making splashes and bringing in big names, but it can catch up to you real quick. The Jays don't need to boost payroll by 70M just because they can.

 

The lesson I glean from the Cubs is that you shouldn't trade elite prospects for rentals, not that free agent contracts crippled them.

[Brownie19]

I dunno, those type of trades will still happen. Hindsight just makes some of them look horrendous.

 

The White Sox just traded six years of a SP who projects for 2.4 fWAR in 2020 for one year of a SP who will make $9M and projects for 3.2 fWAR in 2020. Imagine how bad that trade will look if Dane Dunning improves?

 

I get your point, but if you compare 1 year of Lynn to half a season by Chapman...Dunning isn't the 28th overall prospect in baseball (which Torres was) and yet the White Sox still might end up regretting that move!

[Orgfiller]

I get your point, but if you compare 1 year of Lynn to half a season by Chapman...Dunning isn't the 28th overall prospect in baseball (which Torres was) and yet the White Sox still might end up regretting that move!

 

Chapman is also like, top 1/2 at his role. While trading Torres for him is still pretty stupid there's very few players of his calibre available when you're 100% going for it. The Cubs were the best team in baseball with an average-ish to below bullpen and had a chance to break the infamous curse by adding the best possible upgrade they could acquire. The White Sox are not close to being the best and just traded a promising MLB ready SP with control for one who might give them a 2 win upgrade as a rental while the team still has other holes.

 

The White Sox could just as easily have signed Bauer, an actual potential top 5 SP while giving up no assets.

[Carlos Danger]

Chapman is also like, top 1/2 at his role. While trading Torres for him is still pretty stupid there's very few players of his calibre available when you're 100% going for it. The Cubs were the best team in baseball with an average-ish to below bullpen and had a chance to break the infamous curse by adding the best possible upgrade they could acquire. The White Sox are not close to being the best and just traded a promising MLB ready SP with control for one who might give them a 2 win upgrade as a rental while the team still has other holes.

 

The White Sox could just as easily have signed Bauer, an actual potential top 5 SP while giving up no assets.

 

We need to see what else the White Sox do so we have the context of the Lynn trade. They are a pretty scary good team on the field and very close, with just some starters and bullpen help needed... Lynn is a good start...

[L54]

The lesson I glean from the Cubs is that you shouldn't trade elite prospects for rentals, not that free agent contracts crippled them.

 

What crippled them was not having any flexibility payroll wise to add when they needed to.

 

It's all fine and dandy to sustain (insert Team X's payroll here) ~170M payroll when things are going good. But as soon as you need to add to your roster and don't have the ability to because you've brought in players XYZ who are all making 15M+ per year and your arb salaries are continuing to rise you're in trouble.

 

Maxing out payroll in 2020 will provide a massive hurdle in 2024 or whenever our arb guys start making real money. I know most fans don't care about that (not you in particular Grant) but there is a lot of chatter on here that they should easily be able to add 70M in salary this year. That's a terrible and irresponsible way to operate in my opinion.

[Jimcanuck]

What crippled them was not having any flexibility payroll wise to add when they needed to.

 

It's all fine and dandy to sustain (insert Team X's payroll here) ~170M payroll when things are going good. But as soon as you need to add to your roster and don't have the ability to because you've brought in players XYZ who are all making 15M+ per year and your arb salaries are continuing to rise you're in trouble.

 

Maxing out payroll in 2020 will provide a massive hurdle in 2024 or whenever our arb guys start making real money. I know most fans don't care about that (not you in particular Grant) but there is a lot of chatter on here that they should easily be able to add 70M in salary this year. That's a terrible and irresponsible way to operate in my opinion.

 

From the point of view of trying to retain the present core, you are right.

 

Getting Lindor would be expensive yes, but frees up a guy like Biggio as a trade chip before he starts getting expensive, when his value is still very high.

[G-Snarls]

But there's also the benefit of exploiting the cost-effectiveness of all the young players we have, because they're not going to be any cheaper than this.

 

Wish AA was here to convince them all to sign Acuna/Albies style contracts...

 

Kidding

[RobinThicc]

Fwiw, I was watching the Jomboy media livestream and Passan said he thinks Lindor ends up in either toronto or with the mets.

 

Olney later on also said he thinks the Jays end up with Lindor. He also thinks they'll end up signing realmuto, because he thinks springer is going to the mets. He was pretty convinced we'll get someone.

[Jays24]

Fwiw, I was watching the Jomboy media livestream and Passan said he thinks Lindor ends up in either toronto or with the mets.

 

Olney later on also said he thinks the Jays end up with Lindor. He also thinks they'll end up signing realmuto, because he thinks springer is going to the mets. He was pretty convinced we'll get someone.

 

Oh its worth everything hearing that lol.

 

Really don't think we need a catcher and definitely need a CFer but its hard to be upset if we went that route. I am assuming our package to the Indians will be dependant upon who we get from free agency.

[Spanky99]

Give me Simmons on a 1 year

 

Then Story as a FA next off season.

 

Too old, will be too expensive. Hoping he resigns in LA. Pretty much my least fav name FA

 

[L54]

But there's also the benefit of exploiting the cost-effectiveness of all the young players we have, because they're not going to be any cheaper than this. So a maxed out 2021 payroll might well be the best team we have in the next 5-7 years, who knows.

 

It's definitely an extremely delicate balance.

 

Good point and you're right. I'm just not of the opinion that the Jays have to drastically increase payroll this year or they won't/can't be competitive. There are lots of good free agents next year too. Delicate balance indeed.

[Ray]

[saskjayfan]

 

Just go get him. He is the one guy who actually wants to come here. He might come at a discount. The way the market's going 5 years 30 mil plus posting fee might be enough. He stole 55 bases over the past 2 years and was caught 6 times. He walked 12% of the time last year and struck out 10% of the time. You can see he's strong young kid with some bat speed. From what I've read his defense is at least average and he can play multiple positions, but I have read anywhere that claims him to be a stud defender by any means. Still he can play across the infield.

 

Seems like a pretty reasonable gamble over 5 years after we just dumped 24 mil on the tire fire that is Tanner Roark.

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by saskjayfan

[Spanky99]

Longenhagen on Kim...

 

Kim is an explosive, compact-bodied athlete with natural doubles power who frequently turns on pitches on the inner half and absolutely obliterates balls to his pull side. He took bigger hacks during the 2020 KBO season and hit more homers without impacting his contact rates, as he also had more walks than Ks. An everyday talent who'll be on the overall top 100 prospects list this offseason, it's impossible to say whether Kim will be able to make the leap from Korean to MLB pitching seamlessly, but his KBO numbers are more favorable than other recent successful players, he's younger, and his defensive ability gives him more margin for error in this regard.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHWfaRLrd4U&feature=emb_logo

[saskjayfan]

Longenhagen on Kim...

 

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHWfaRLrd4U&feature=emb_logo

 

I'm not sure how much money there is to be made off the Korean baseball fan and we may already have some of that revenue off just having Ryu. Still, you add one of the most exciting position players with Ryu who is probably the most popular Korean baseball player you would think you could be a financial argument that we could increase revenue by signing Kim to offset some of his salary.

[G-Snarls]

Just go get him. He is the one guy who actually wants to come here. He might come at a discount. The way the market's going 5 years 30 mil plus posting fee might be enough. He stole 55 bases over the past 2 years and was caught 6 times. He walked 12% of the time last year and struck out 10% of the time. You can see he's strong young kid with some bat speed. From what I've read his defense is at least average and he can play multiple positions, but I have read anywhere that claims him to be a stud defender by any means. Still he can play across the infield.

 

Seems like a pretty reasonable gamble over 5 years after we just dumped 24 mil on the tire fire that is Tanner Roark.

 

 

Zero prospect cost, zero draft pick cost and probably reasonable $. At worst he's a useful utility infielder and at best an exciting above average every day player. I'd take the gamble if you're worried you can't get Springer or Lindor right now and he's willing to sign.

 

Let's do this and use $$/trade chips for starting pitching

Edited December 11, 2020 by G-Snarls

[z3r0s]

Yeah I think he's a no brainer target if he's interested in the team. Its one of those moves that has good upside while not being that risky as the dollar figures / years are just not high enough to hamstring you if he bombs.

 

I do wonder how much having cred in foreign markets is worth to a team. You certainly see teams like the Mariners that are ALWAYS in consideration with NPB players, and seemingly TEX since the Darvish signing. It's not going to convince guys to come at a steep discount, but it seems to at least get you in the conversation.

[Carlos Danger]

So KBO guys are straight FAs? Or is it an high-bid blind auction like the Japanese guys?

[Deadpool]

So KBO guys are straight FAs? Or is it an high-bid blind auction like the Japanese guys?

 

I'm pretty sure the bid system was replaced with the current system that pays the NPB/KBO team a percentage based on the contract signed...

 

20% of the first $25 million

17.5% of the next $25 million

15% of any amount above $50 million

 

That's from : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_system

 

I don't think there are closed bid/negotiations anymore for either league.

[G-Snarls]

I'm pretty sure the bid system was replaced with the current system that pays the NPB/KBO team a percentage based on the contract signed...

 

20% of the first $25 million

17.5% of the next $25 million

15% of any amount above $50 million

 

That's from : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_system

 

I don't think there are closed bid/negotiations anymore for either league.

 

You're right

 

Its all open bidding now. Players can sign with whoever they want

 

The Darvish / Rangers signing resulted in a change to all that. His Japanese team got way too much money and he himself got underpaid. It was a pretty stupid system.

[G-Snarls]

Why are there still 3 separate rules and systems for acquiring:

 

1. North American players

 

2. Players from Venezuela/Dominican Republic/Puerto Rico etc (plus Cubans have to defect)

 

3. Korea and Japan

[Grant77]

I like the idea of signing Kim more each day, but obviously we have to see what happens with LeMahieu and get more clarity on a contract extension with Lindor.

 

Kim is a seamless fit on our roster wouldn't preclude us from adding a star like Arenado, Story, or even Lindor next offseason.

[Brownie19]

Kim's age is a huge plus. Theoretically you lock up a 25 year old kid and carry him through his prime years - all of which align with the prime years of our core.

[Carlos Danger]

I like the idea of signing Kim more each day, but obviously we have to see what happens with LeMahieu and get more clarity on a contract extension with Lindor.

 

Kim is a seamless fit on our roster wouldn't preclude us from adding a star like Arenado, Story, or even Lindor next offseason.

 

LeMahieu is not coming to Toronto/ Buffalo. The only thing is he has to do with us is IF he does’t go back to the Yankees. The Yankees will go after Lindor and move Gleyber to 2b.

[glory]

Kim is younger than every position player on the team except Vlad, Bo, and Kirk. If he turns out to be good, and the Jays have him locked up for the rest of his 20's, then that would be a great outcome. Of course he has very real bust potential too, more than any of the MLB free agents they could sign, so that's where they have to use their scouting to determine whether they believe in his upside and ability to hit big league pitching/velocity.

[jerb]

[BTS]

 

It's very hard to see the team not adding multiple very exciting players this offseason.

[Laika]

I trust Mark. I believe in Ross.